HAL Restart

[john2003]

1 hour ago, PSR said:

 

Where are these flights coming from? The rest of Canada or elsewhere?

I tried to reply earlier. Not sure where it went. 

They are from everywhere. Canada, Mexico, London, US and Asia.

[npcl]

6 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

google 'fauci vaccine effectiveness' and you'll find multiple articles covering his statement.  In essence, he said not to expect a vaccine that will give complete and long lasting coverage.  IIRC, he said 60% is more reasonable and that it may require renewals.  But, he did say he was optimistic we would get a vaccine with at least 50% effectiveness.  (I believe a vaccine that is 50% effective would only protect half the people who get it.)  He did say it was very unreasonable to expect the CV vaccine would provide as much protection as the measles vaccine (98%).  He also said that we might have to continue the "public health approach" (whatever that means, hopefully he's not talking about masks forever.)

Not forever but until the infection number drop enough for the infection to be considered to be under control. The more people comply with the rules, the faster the vaccine comes out, the more people that get vaccinated  the lower the R0 drops and the faster the spread slows.

[npcl]

9 hours ago, Aquahound said:

 

They're restarting Med cruises this month on 2 ships.  

I believe they had them planned, then there was a delay in getting approval from the Italian government, so they announced the restart would be delayed, but then they got the approval and the cruises are back on.

[npcl]

5 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

I do agree with that statement!  

 

Traveling any distance by any means of transportation from my home poses questions that I am unsure how to confront.

 

Driving to a favorite beach on the East Coast:  I am going to need to make a pit stop at least once en route.  What's going to be reliably open?  McDonald's lobbies are closed.  Some states' Rest Areas restrooms are closed.  I stop at a hotel that has offered a small buffet breakfast in the past.  What can I expect--if anything?  Where in route can I be sure that I can get something to eat?  Particularly, if I need an over night stay somewhere?  

 

Our political leaders of both parties want the economy to resume functioning, but the hospitality and travel industry is in Depression mode.

 

I need some certainty as to what to expect as I try to make plans.  I don't think I am alone with this thinking.  Such certainty is surely absent at this point in time.    

 

 

Most hotels that used to serve breakfast now give you a bag to go with things like a muffin and fruit.

 

Due to the rest room situation I purchased a B -class RV  (basically a converted Promaster 3500 van, with a bathroom just so we do not have to deal with bathroom closures and other such issues). Used to be you could always find a Starbucks, but not so much since they closed their inside seating and stopped public access to their restrooms.

 

Not that we are going any great distances.  Recreational travel during an outbreak is on of the ways that it spreads if people are not being very careful.

 

Oregon is thinking about putting on travel restrictions due to the number of cases coming from out of state.

Edited August 9, 2020 by npcl

[SargassoPirate]

12 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

google 'fauci vaccine effectiveness' and you'll find multiple articles covering his statement.  In essence, he said not to expect a vaccine that will give complete and long lasting coverage.  IIRC, he said 60% is more reasonable and that it may require renewals.  But, he did say he was optimistic we would get a vaccine with at least 50% effectiveness.  (I believe a vaccine that is 50% effective would only protect half the people who get it.)  He did say it was very unreasonable to expect the CV vaccine would provide as much protection as the measles vaccine (98%).  He also said that we might have to continue the "public health approach" (whatever that means, hopefully he's not talking about masks forever.)

 

And some of the latest polls indicate that only 40-45 % of the US population plan to get the vaccine when it's available.  What will be interesting to see is what the restrictions then become - if any?  Keep wearing a mask to protect the anti-vaxers?  Let nature take its course and do some gene pool cleansing?

 

I do hope the increased emphasis on cleaning every possible surface continues.  I like a clean world. 

[RocketMan275]

6 hours ago, npcl said:

Not forever but until the infection number drop enough for the infection to be considered to be under control. The more people comply with the rules, the faster the vaccine comes out, the more people that get vaccinated  the lower the R0 drops and the faster the spread slows.

Your hopes are all based upon a vaccine which may or may not happen.

What's plan B?

[RocketMan275]

32 minutes ago, SargassoPirate said:

 

And some of the latest polls indicate that only 40-45 % of the US population plan to get the vaccine when it's available.  What will be interesting to see is what the restrictions then become - if any?  Keep wearing a mask to protect the anti-vaxers?  Let nature take its course and do some gene pool cleansing?

Considering the disproportionate number of CV deaths from those over 80 a/o living in nursing homes, it's not clear how that cleanses the gene pool.

Considering the possibility that there may not be a vaccine, those who do not practice the CV protocols may be the path to herd immunity.

 

[bouhunter]

2 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

Considering the disproportionate number of CV deaths from those over 80 a/o living in nursing homes, it's not clear how that cleanses the gene pool.

 

 

A valid observation.

[DaveOKC]

2 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

Considering the disproportionate number of CV deaths from those over 80 a/o living in nursing homes, it's not clear how that cleanses the gene pool.

 

 

True....  All it does is reduce the strain on the social security and Medicare systems.

[Himself]

The earliest I see HAL starting is December.  I hope HAL is sailing by January. 

[iancal]

Are you expecting HAL to sail, and for people to take cruises, when a safe, effective vaccine is not yet widely available?  Or do you anticipate that such a vaccine will be available by then?

 

Let alone a drug that successfully combats covid. 

Edited August 9, 2020 by iancal

[HappyInVan]

Hummm!

 

Here's an alarming report from the UK.

 

"The first parliamentary inquiry into the pandemic heard from witnesses who spoke of lasting coronavirus symptoms"

 

"They had contracted coronavirus between March and May, had expected to recover after two weeks, but found themselves still fatigued and encumbered  months later. What was disturbing about the evidence given was threefold.

 

Firstly, these were all working-age people otherwise in good health; one of them now uses a wheelchair. Secondly, the variety of symptoms reported was alarming. Thirdly, many in the growing long-Covid community never even went into hospital. As pointed out by the witness Dr Jake Suett, it is this non-hospitalised cohort that has been overlooked to date."

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/long-covid-could-cast-long-shadow-thousands-lives/

 

 

 

[prescottbob]

 

First, I'll link a CDC page that  keep's it 'simple' for those good folks not all that familiar with how vaccines works, etc.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/conversations/understanding-vacc-work.html

 

Second, in the development of any vaccine the manufacturer needs to get the dosing correctly (to much equals toxicity,  nasty side effects, etc.; not enough equals no immune responses, etc.). Then they must determine if so-called booster injections, aka shots, would be required initially and if annual / semi-annual  boosters would be required..   

 

Third, regarding mortality numbers, at least in our Northern Arizona county the current numbers posted in our newspaper from the local Health Department:  4% mortality ages 1-54 years of age, 96% 55-85+ years of age. Now that not to say that everyone who contracts the virus will not survive obviously but those with pre-existing conditions, i.e. heart disease, obesity, diabetes, immune suppressive  diseases, etc. are certainly more vulnerable.

 

So....what are the normal age demographics of cruise line passengers and what medical conditions are somewhat common in the 60+ age group aboard?  

 

Needless to say, a lot of if's when it comes to vaccines which IMHO would certainly be required to get back to "normal" cruising-wise. A 'magic' therapeutic to treat an existing infection would be great but, again, there are plenty of 'hurdles to jump' prior to achieving this goal.

 

Be well.

Bob 

 

 

[iancal]

We do not really care when HAL or any other cruise line 'starts up'.  That date is completely meaningless to us.

 

The only date we care about is the date when we feel that it is safe to cruise and enjoyable to cruise.   We are hardly going to take a cruise simply because the cruise line has commenced operations.   Cruise lines have given us little reason in the past to place our trust in their judgement.

 

We anticipate these to be two very different dates, months apart.

 

All we can consider now is the recent  premature Hurtigruten start up cruise disaster and the lengths that the cruise line is going to cover up this disaster and keep it out of  public view.

 

http://icepeople.net/2020/08/05/listicle-ten-reasons-the-covid-19-outbreak-aboard-the-hurtigruten-cruise-ship-roald-amundsen-is-controversial/

Edited August 9, 2020 by iancal

[RJ2002]

I've also read some pieces that suggest the possibility that these initial vaccines might not be as effective as those which might be developed further down the line - similar to how treatment for HIV evolved.

 

When this first started, I was really optimistic that the vaccine would quickly get things back to normal.  However, the more I read about the vaccine and the fact that a LOT of people don't even plan to get it...  all suggests to me that we may be encouraged to follow the recommended measures of social distancing and mask wearing (when social distancing isn't possible) for some time to come. 

 

Having said all that, I'm of the opinion that we are looking at 2Q or 3Q 2021 for a limited cruising restart for the North American lines.

[RocketMan275]

40 minutes ago, prescottbob said:

 

First, I'll link a CDC page that  keep's it 'simple' for those good folks not all that familiar with how vaccines works, etc.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/conversations/understanding-vacc-work.html

 

Second, in the development of any vaccine the manufacturer needs to get the dosing correctly (to much equals toxicity,  nasty side effects, etc.; not enough equals no immune responses, etc.). Then they must determine if so-called booster injections, aka shots, would be required initially and if annual / semi-annual  boosters would be required..   

 

Third, regarding mortality numbers, at least in our Northern Arizona county the current numbers posted in our newspaper from the local Health Department:  4% mortality ages 1-54 years of age, 96% 55-85+ years of age. Now that not to say that everyone who contracts the virus will not survive obviously but those with pre-existing conditions, i.e. heart disease, obesity, diabetes, immune suppressive  diseases, etc. are certainly more vulnerable.

 

Be well.

Bob 

 

 

About those mortality numbers.  Are those the percentages of deaths in those age ranges?, ie, 4% of the deaths were in the age range of 1-54?  I would think that the age range of 1-54 is very misleading.  Probably most of those deaths are far closer to 54 than to 1.

[KJ Knowles]

CDC's current numbers on cases and deaths by age demographic. There are many interesting and informative charts at the link below.

 

CDC COVID-19 Demographics Data Tracker

 

 

[Roz]

2 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

About those mortality numbers.  Are those the percentages of deaths in those age ranges?, ie, 4% of the deaths were in the age range of 1-54?  I would think that the age range of 1-54 is very misleading.  Probably most of those deaths are far closer to 54 than to 1.

 

I wondered about that also.  Here are the stats for TN as of yesterday.  Don't know how they compare to other states.

 

0-40 yrs. old - 58% of positive cases, 3% of deaths

41-50 yrs. old - 15% of positive cases, 6% of deaths

51-60 yrs. old - 13% of positive cases, 11% of deaths

61-70 yrs. old - 8% of positive cases, 20% of deaths

71-80 yrs. old - 4% of positive cases, 29% of deaths

81+ yrs. old - 2% of positive cases, 31% of deaths

Edited August 9, 2020 by Roz

[Roz]

6 minutes ago, KJ Knowles said:

CDC's current numbers on cases and deaths by age demographic. There are many interesting and informative charts at the link below.

 

CDC COVID-19 Demographics Data Tracker

 

 

 

Looks like TN is tracking what is happening nationally.  I didn't separate out the lower age groups, but the point is young adults account for a lot of the cases but rarely die from Covid-19.  

[RocketMan275]

5 minutes ago, Roz said:

 

I wondered about that also.  Here are the stats for TN as of yesterday.  Don't know how they compare to other states.

 

0-40 yrs. old - 58% of positive cases, 3% of deaths

41-50 yrs. old - 15% of positive cases, 6% of deaths

51-60 yrs. old - 13% of positive cases, 11% of deaths

61-70 yrs. old - 8% of positive cases, 20% of deaths

71-80 yrs. old - 4% of positive cases, 29% of deaths

81+ yrs. old - 2% of positive cases, 31% of deaths

If 60% of the deaths are over seventy, shouldn't we be focused on protecting those?

 

Edited August 9, 2020 by RocketMan275

[RocketMan275]

3 minutes ago, Roz said:

 

Looks like TN is tracking what is happening nationally.  I didn't separate out the lower age groups, but the point is young adults account for a lot of the cases but rarely die from Covid-19.  

No doubt.  There is a limit to how long we can convince the young to continue with these protocols.

Edited August 9, 2020 by RocketMan275

[Roz]

1 minute ago, RocketMan275 said:

Why not give everyone over 80 N95 masks and make masks optional for the rest?

 

Because younger people are contracting the virus and spreading it to us oldsters.  I think all age groups have to work on this together.

[prescottbob]

2 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

About those mortality numbers.  Are those the percentages of deaths in those age ranges?, ie, 4% of the deaths were in the age range of 1-54?  I would think that the age range of 1-54 is very misleading.  Probably most of those deaths are far closer to 54 than to 1.

 

These are the local numbers for us as of yesterday, 8 August.. We're pretty much a retirement, service-oriented community (Prescott, AZ) but the figures represent the entire county which is about the size of New Jersey (and obviously not so densely populated).

There's all kinds of stats out there, CDC as mentioned, John Hopkins, WHO and many, many others with lots of variations..

 

Be well.

Bob

 

Yavapai County Confirmed Cases: 1968 Deaths: 67 Recoveries: 662		Arizona Cases: 185053 Deaths: 4081
Yavapai Case Locations   Count Change Ash Fork 9 n/c Bagdad 12 n/c Black Canyon City 25 +3 Camp Verde 129 n/c Chino Valley* 94 +1 Clarkdale 60 n/c Congress 11 n/c Cornville 28 n/c Cottonwood 241 +3 Dewey-Humboldt* 92 +2 Mayer* 43 n/c Paulden 54 +2 Prescott* 429 +4 Prescott Valley** 411 -10 Rimrock 42 n/c Sedona 120 +1 Yarnell 6 n/c Other Quad-Cities 17 +1 Other Verde Valley 1 n/c Unknown 21   *Mingus Mtn Academy 123   **cases from Maricopa were deleted from PV	Yavapai Tests Total Tested 30980   Negative 29012 93.6% Positive 1968         New Tests Reported 246 New Positive Cases 30       Positivity Rate (PCR)* 5.5% Positivity Rate (Antibody) 2.5%	Yavapai Case Details Age Count Change 0 to 12 84 n/c 13 to 17  157 +4 18 to 24 228 +2 25 to 34 277 +2 35 to 44 213 +1 45 to 54 220 -1 55 to 64 304 +3 65 to 74 257 -2 75 to 84 130 -1 85 + 93 n/c Unknown 5         Male 831 42% Female 1137 58%
	Yavapai Hospitalizations YRMC 15 0 PUI (West Campus)   4 0 PUI (East Campus) VVMC 6 1 PUI VA 1 0 PUI * A PUI is an in-patient who has been admitted for care that has been tested for COVID-19 with results still pending. * These numbers are only COVID-19 related hospitalizations.	Yavapai Mortality Case fatality rate 3.5%       Females 23 35% Males 44 65%       Cottonwood 12 18% Prescott 30 45% Other Quad Cities  15 21% Other Verde 10 15%       0 to 54 2 4% 55 to 64 9 12% 65 to 74 14 21% 75 to 84 20 30% 85 and older 22 34%
Testing Sites in Yavapai County

[rkacruiser]

1 hour ago, Roz said:

 

Because younger people are contracting the virus and spreading it to us oldsters.  I think all age groups have to work on this together.

 

In the best interest of our society, a more true statement could not have been made by you.  But, how to do this?

 

Whoever wins the Presidency in November, the single most important challenge for that Administration will be how to get "We, the People" to work together to attempt to end this pandemic.  

 

 

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

There is a limit to how long we can convince the young to continue with these protocols.

 

Unfortunately, many of our young citizens (as well as some who are not so young and should know better) have decided to ignore the current protocols.  Thus, in my State as well as in others, Covid has gained a foothold where it's grasp was starting to diminish.  Ohio took "two steps forward during the Winter and early Spring".  Our Governor chose to re-open too soon, even though he did it slowly, and we have gone "one step backward".  Treading water:  that's where we are now.  

 

RocketMan275, we are on the same wavelength of thought.  How do we get those who are not observing the protocols and are endangering themselves and you and me to begin to behave in the best interest of all of us?

[SFO Peter]

No Mask and No Social Distancing

Leads to really bad stuff:

 

1.  Lockdown leading to

2.  No Jobs

3.  No Money

4.  No Food

5.  No School

6.  No Transportation

 

More Severe and Death:

5.  Grandparents or Elderly demise in a very bad way

6.  Children seriously ill some not recovering

7.   Those that recover have lasting damages to Kidney, Heart, Lungs and other internal organs.

8.  Puts our Doctors and Nurses an other Front Line workers at risk for the virus

 

We are asking you to please Wear Mask and Social Distance.  It is the right thing to do for all of humanity.