HAL Restart

[Gail & Marty sailing away]

6 hours ago, Himself said:

The earliest I see HAL starting is December.  I hope HAL is sailing by January. 

 

6 hours ago, Himself said:

The earliest I see HAL starting is December.  I hope HAL is sailing by January. 

I hope you are correct.

[rkacruiser]

22 hours ago, jlnprt said:

 

Recently traveling through Virginia and Tennessee, we found rest stops open and actively being cleaned. Gas stations (and rest rooms) right off the interstate open. Many restaurants open for take out. We had no trouble finding a hotel, but the typical breakfast buffet was reduced to "brown bag" breakfast consisting of a water bottle and individually wrapped breakfast bars/muffins. We were able to find a restaurant with outdoor seating (first restaurant we have been in in over 5 months!). Social distancing was in place and marked. Frequent cleaning was noticeable everywhere we went. 

 

I appreciate reading your post.  It is encouraging.  I would need to drive through parts of Ohio, West Virginia, and Virginia to get to Virginia Beach.  Maybe I ought to try it.

 

Looking at hotel prices in Virginia Beach at a hotel that I would prefer to patronize, for an after Labor Day visit of several days, the Senior Rate was considerably more than I expected to find.  

 

The economy needs those of us who want to travel to be willing to do so.  Pricing needs to "fall in line" to encourage us to do so.  After 9-11, the hotel industry was absolutely desperate for us to do so.  Do you remember the ads and the promotions?  And, my gosh, the e-mailed "thank yous" once I had completed my visit.  My pricing research was, during a shoulder season visit for a resort area, indicated that the hotel industry at that location is not as "hungry" today as they were after 9-11.   

Edited August 9, 2020 by rkacruiser

[DeeDee Groff]

July 2021, and I say this even though I have reservations for three cruises spanning from the end of March through the end of May.  The first time I realistically expect to board a HAL ship (or a ship from any other line) is October 10, 2021 in Fort Lauderdale for the Grand Africa Voyage, and I'm not even sure about that!

[RJ2002]

• Wash your hands frequently.

• Socially distance.

• Wear a mask when you are around others and can't socially distance.

These are the keys to getting the virus under control and reducing spread. 

 

When the positivity rate goes down, more people will begin to feel more comfortable to venture out, and guess what, the economy will benefit.  Maybe then, those of us in the US can then join the citizens of countries which have done a better job than we have, and who are already welcome to travel internationally again.  And ultimately we can resume cruising.  That's what this thread is about, right?  The longer it takes the US to get this under control, the more drawn out the recovery will be.  We have the power to do it (the three bullet points above).  We all just need to pull in the same direction rather than treating this like a tug-of-war.

[Roz]

In TN the infection rate for those in the 21-30 yr. old age cohort is 23%.  That is huge, in my opinion.  So Covid-19 does impact the young.

[npcl]

Very appropriate article in USA today dealing with this topic that includes Trivago search data.  Which indicates as the article puts it:

 

'Pragmatic and cautious': As some Americans avoid travel, others visit COVID-19 hot spots anyway

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/08/10/covid-travel-issues-didnt-dissuade-americans-visiting-hot-spots/3303424001/

 

Trivago hotel searches started coming back in May and June as states reopened. Florida was among the states to progress the furthest back to normal booking levels, going from 95% below 2019 levels at the start of April to just 18% below normal in mid-June.

In July, when the number of new coronavirus cases was rising sharply in dozens of states, would-be travelers pulled back. The number of searches for hotels slipped further below 2019 numbers compared to the number of searches in June.

 

For people who expected to travel, 40% said they were likely to stay close to home and consider destinations with small numbers of coronavirus cases, but 27% of them were “daredevils,” who were less concerned about the coronavirus situation when picking destinations and willing to travel further. 

 

 

 

[T8NCruise]

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

There are ways to protect older family members that do not require shutting down the economy.  For example, one might consider not sending those infected with the virus to nursing homes.  Or, one might consider providing N95 masks that do protect those wearing them instead of making everyone else wear masks with limited effectiveness.

 

One might also consider following the lead of the rest of the world.  No, it is very well known that masks do not protect the wearer, but protect others.  However, ever a slight amount of avoiding droplets is well worth the "bother" of wearing one.  For heavens sakes, the virus is totally out of control in the US, with 160K plus dead already - is opening up everything for the sake of the "economy" worth that without first having a shut down to control it.  Short term gain might be painful but worth it in the long run, as evidenced elsewhere.

[doncarlos]

I believe the OP wanted thoughts re when HAL wiil cruise and when will we cruise again .

 I suspect 2nd 1/2 of 2021  .

 

For one , I want to re join when cruise feels like a holiday and now needed protocols [ mask, social distance, "contact less " service etc ]   are relaxed to a more reasonable level

[Ken the cruiser]

On 8/8/2020 at 2:37 PM, Charlie1422 said:

Now that MSC has announced their restart dates for Europe, I would like to hear your realistic opinions for restart of HAL and other US based cruise lines. I have no confidence in the dates they are putting out.

Getting back on topic, here's my "for what it's worth" guess. The FDA approves at least one COVID vaccine, but hopefully more, by November 2020. If that happens, the cruise lines will start gearing up for maybe some short Caribbean cruises starting in February 2021 on a few of their larger ships filled at no more than 50% capacity.

 

Passengers and crew will have to provide proof they have received the COVID vaccine, have their temperature checked when initially boarding the ship, and will only be allowed to leave the ship when booked on an approved cruise line sanctioned excursion or at the end of the cruise. 

[Wonderingabout]

Thinking outside the box.

 

The projection of deaths in the United States by the experts in mid March  ie Fauci etal was 200,000 Dead .  This was prior to the recommendation to wear masks or the requirement to wear masks indoors, or to wear masks outdoors when near people, or to wear surgical masks and not scarfs or kerchiefs, or to wear double layered surgical masks.  Last week the projection was 200,000 to 300,000 Dead.  It seems the projection has changed very little even as the suggested protocols have changed continually.

 

What the changing protocols have been effective at is pitting people against each other.  It is creating a blame game.

 

Let us for the moment ignore the economic and social effects that the current protocols have on our society and look at the Covid 19 as purely a medical issue.

 

The Covid 19 Virus came out of Pandora's box  when it arrived at a meat market or a virus research lab in Wuhan and all our wishing and hoping is not going to put it back in the box.   A Vaccine is not a cure, it is a preventative which works ideally for most, never for all and with negative effects for a few.  But vaccines are relatively recent,  the first being Edward Jenner's small pox vaccine in 1796.   A measles vaccine had to wait until the second half of the 20th century to be used.  But Measles which devastates a population without childhood immunity ie see Rome in the 2nd Century AD or the American Indian in the 19th century was not devastating to most European populations.  This is because it was a disease that becomes more virulent the older the victim and while most children acquired the disease and suffered from the disease, they survived the disease and acquired an immunity to the disease.

 

Based on current statistics it appears that for almost all young people the effects of the Covid 19 Virus are far less than Measles as to be almost non-existent and perhaps the proper protocol for dealing with the virus is to let the young people get the disease and develop their immunity.  That is have the younger members of the society develop the herd immunity.  Rather than quickly quarantining the child who tests positive for the Virus he or she should be allowed to spread the disease among his or her peers.  This would accelerate the spread to the younger population and subsequently after their immunity kicks in, limit their ability to spread it to the older population.  In the interim the older population would need to be quarantined from the younger population but this could be  very limited time if the spread among the younger population was rapid even by artificially accelerating the spread to the young. 

 

This is counter-intuitive thinking but maybe this is the proper solution.   A vaccine is itself a counter-intuitive solution to the Virus problem.  A Vaccine works by infecting you with the disease that you are trying to avoid.   Imagine yourself in 1796 being told that by voluntarily infecting yourself with a disease you are preventing that disease.      

 

The age of the cut off and who allows the cutoff could be done at the individual and family level rather than at the State Government level, with each person assuming the risks he or she is willing to take.  We have current statistics which give general odds of dying from the disease based on age and preexisting medical conditions.  The young and those willing to take the risks of dying or suffering permanent complications from the disease would be the ones to get the Herd immunity.  While those not willing to take the risks could remain at whatever level of self quarantine they wish ie N95 Masks, cloth masks , stay at home, social distancing at 6 feet, social distancing at 10 feet.  This  would not be unique as anti-vaxers already use the herd immunity of the  majority to protect themselves from measles and other similar diseases. It would be a win-win as the risk to the more fearful would go down and the freedom to the less fearful would go up.

[RocketMan275]

1 hour ago, Wonderingabout said:

Thinking outside the box.

 

The projection of deaths in the United States by the experts in mid March  ie Fauci etal was 200,000 Dead .  This was prior to the recommendation to wear masks or the requirement to wear masks indoors, or to wear masks outdoors when near people, or to wear surgical masks and not scarfs or kerchiefs, or to wear double layered surgical masks.  Last week the projection was 200,000 to 300,000 Dead.  It seems the projection has changed very little even as the suggested protocols have changed continually.

 

What the changing protocols have been effective at is pitting people against each other.  It is creating a blame game.

 

Let us for the moment ignore the economic and social effects that the current protocols have on our society and look at the Covid 19 as purely a medical issue.

 

The Covid 19 Virus came out of Pandora's box  when it arrived at a meat market or a virus research lab in Wuhan and all our wishing and hoping is not going to put it back in the box.   A Vaccine is not a cure, it is a preventative which works ideally for most, never for all and with negative effects for a few.  But vaccines are relatively recent,  the first being Edward Jenner's small pox vaccine in 1796.   A measles vaccine had to wait until the second half of the 20th century to be used.  But Measles which devastates a population without childhood immunity ie see Rome in the 2nd Century AD or the American Indian in the 19th century was not devastating to most European populations.  This is because it was a disease that becomes more virulent the older the victim and while most children acquired the disease and suffered from the disease, they survived the disease and acquired an immunity to the disease.

 

Based on current statistics it appears that for almost all young people the effects of the Covid 19 Virus are far less than Measles as to be almost non-existent and perhaps the proper protocol for dealing with the virus is to let the young people get the disease and develop their immunity.  That is have the younger members of the society develop the herd immunity.  Rather than quickly quarantining the child who tests positive for the Virus he or she should be allowed to spread the disease among his or her peers.  This would accelerate the spread to the younger population and subsequently after their immunity kicks in, limit their ability to spread it to the older population.  In the interim the older population would need to be quarantined from the younger population but this could be  very limited time if the spread among the younger population was rapid even by artificially accelerating the spread to the young. 

 

This is counter-intuitive thinking but maybe this is the proper solution.   A vaccine is itself a counter-intuitive solution to the Virus problem.  A Vaccine works by infecting you with the disease that you are trying to avoid.   Imagine yourself in 1796 being told that by voluntarily infecting yourself with a disease you are preventing that disease.      

 

The age of the cut off and who allows the cutoff could be done at the individual and family level rather than at the State Government level, with each person assuming the risks he or she is willing to take.  We have current statistics which give general odds of dying from the disease based on age and preexisting medical conditions.  The young and those willing to take the risks of dying or suffering permanent complications from the disease would be the ones to get the Herd immunity.  While those not willing to take the risks could remain at whatever level of self quarantine they wish ie N95 Masks, cloth masks , stay at home, social distancing at 6 feet, social distancing at 10 feet.  This  would not be unique as anti-vaxers already use the herd immunity of the  majority to protect themselves from measles and other similar diseases. It would be a win-win as the risk to the more fearful would go down and the freedom to the less fearful would go up.

I suspect this is one of the more likely outcomes.

Edited August 10, 2020 by RocketMan275

[npcl]

1 hour ago, Wonderingabout said:

Thinking outside the box.

 

The projection of deaths in the United States by the experts in mid March  ie Fauci etal was 200,000 Dead .  This was prior to the recommendation to wear masks or the requirement to wear masks indoors, or to wear masks outdoors when near people, or to wear surgical masks and not scarfs or kerchiefs, or to wear double layered surgical masks.  Last week the projection was 200,000 to 300,000 Dead.  It seems the projection has changed very little even as the suggested protocols have changed continually.

 

What the changing protocols have been effective at is pitting people against each other.  It is creating a blame game.

 

Let us for the moment ignore the economic and social effects that the current protocols have on our society and look at the Covid 19 as purely a medical issue.

 

The Covid 19 Virus came out of Pandora's box  when it arrived at a meat market or a virus research lab in Wuhan and all our wishing and hoping is not going to put it back in the box.   A Vaccine is not a cure, it is a preventative which works ideally for most, never for all and with negative effects for a few.  But vaccines are relatively recent,  the first being Edward Jenner's small pox vaccine in 1796.   A measles vaccine had to wait until the second half of the 20th century to be used.  But Measles which devastates a population without childhood immunity ie see Rome in the 2nd Century AD or the American Indian in the 19th century was not devastating to most European populations.  This is because it was a disease that becomes more virulent the older the victim and while most children acquired the disease and suffered from the disease, they survived the disease and acquired an immunity to the disease.

 

Based on current statistics it appears that for almost all young people the effects of the Covid 19 Virus are far less than Measles as to be almost non-existent and perhaps the proper protocol for dealing with the virus is to let the young people get the disease and develop their immunity.  That is have the younger members of the society develop the herd immunity.  Rather than quickly quarantining the child who tests positive for the Virus he or she should be allowed to spread the disease among his or her peers.  This would accelerate the spread to the younger population and subsequently after their immunity kicks in, limit their ability to spread it to the older population.  In the interim the older population would need to be quarantined from the younger population but this could be  very limited time if the spread among the younger population was rapid even by artificially accelerating the spread to the young. 

 

This is counter-intuitive thinking but maybe this is the proper solution.   A vaccine is itself a counter-intuitive solution to the Virus problem.  A Vaccine works by infecting you with the disease that you are trying to avoid.   Imagine yourself in 1796 being told that by voluntarily infecting yourself with a disease you are preventing that disease.      

 

The age of the cut off and who allows the cutoff could be done at the individual and family level rather than at the State Government level, with each person assuming the risks he or she is willing to take.  We have current statistics which give general odds of dying from the disease based on age and preexisting medical conditions.  The young and those willing to take the risks of dying or suffering permanent complications from the disease would be the ones to get the Herd immunity.  While those not willing to take the risks could remain at whatever level of self quarantine they wish ie N95 Masks, cloth masks , stay at home, social distancing at 6 feet, social distancing at 10 feet.  This  would not be unique as anti-vaxers already use the herd immunity of the  majority to protect themselves from measles and other similar diseases. It would be a win-win as the risk to the more fearful would go down and the freedom to the less fearful would go up.

You might want to recheck your facts on measles and children.  Measles killed over 140,000 in 2018 around the world most under the age of 5.  The out break in Samoa in late 2019 had at least 68 fatalities out of 4581 cases mostly children.

 

The reason why measles killed so many when they first encountered the disease is because the populations had no natural immunity to it, it killed both young and old.  Measles for example also has a nasty tendency to shutdown the immune system for a period of time after infection, leaving one someone vulnerable to secondary infections.

 

You might have a point if we really under stood all of the ramifications of COVID-19 infection, which we do not.  If we were certain that there was no other potential health risks if one survives a COVID infection. Why does it cause inflammation syndrome in children for example.  This illness has only been studied for 5-6 months.  Each month there are new papers and new findings.  with a number of concerning point such as the cardiac damage it appears to cause according to two different papers one from Germany on adults, another from the US looking at college football players. Both show a high percentage having detectable cardio damage from even minor cases of COVID. We also do not know what happens after the immunity wanes with the second infections. Are they minor or more serious? Considering the inflammation syndrome there is a lot we do not understand about how COVID interacts with the immune system, especially since a lot of the damage is done by cytokine storms and inflammation from the immune system.

 

While not a scientific paper it does point out issues with even young healthy individuals may be impacted more than one thinks after they  have gone through even a asymptomatic COVID infection.  At this point we do not know enough to encourage infection. If you don't like this story do a google search on player covid heart condition.  There are a number of stories out there.

 

https://www.si.com/college/2020/08/09/ncaa-cardiac-inflamation-coronavirus-myocarditis-concerns

 

Lately, physicians are identifying the condition in young, healthy Americans — including athletes. “The last month or two, even asymptomatic young people are developing myocardial injury,” Martinez says.

Edited August 10, 2020 by npcl

[HappyInVan]

1 hour ago, Wonderingabout said:

This is counter-intuitive thinking but maybe this is the proper solution.   A vaccine is itself a counter-intuitive solution to the Virus problem.  A Vaccine works by infecting you with the disease that you are trying to avoid.   Imagine yourself in 1796 being told that by voluntarily infecting yourself with a disease you are preventing that disease.      

 

 

Obviously, You know a lot about vaccines and what it is. Can we have any confidence about the rest of what you say? 🙂

 

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2020/08/07/brevard-21-year-old-recovers-mild-covid-19-then-he-nearly-died/5426553002/

 

 

Edited August 10, 2020 by HappyInVan

[victory2020]

On 8/9/2020 at 4:19 PM, rkacruiser said:

 

I appreciate reading your post.  It is encouraging.  I would need to drive through parts of Ohio, West Virginia, and Virginia to get to Virginia Beach.  Maybe I ought to try it.

 

Looking at hotel prices in Virginia Beach at a hotel that I would prefer to patronize, for an after Labor Day visit of several days, the Senior Rate was considerably more than I expected to find.  

 

The economy needs those of us who want to travel to be willing to do so.  Pricing needs to "fall in line" to encourage us to do so.  After 9-11, the hotel industry was absolutely desperate for us to do so.  Do you remember the ads and the promotions?  And, my gosh, the e-mailed "thank yous" once I had completed my visit.  My pricing research was, during a shoulder season visit for a resort area, indicated that the hotel industry at that location is not as "hungry" today as they were after 9-11.   

Maybe because of all the government money! 🙂

[RocketMan275]

14 hours ago, npcl said:

 

 

You might have a point if we really under stood all of the ramifications of COVID-19 infection, which we do not.  If we were certain that there was no other potential health risks if one survives a COVID infection. Why does it cause inflammation syndrome in children for example.  This illness has only been studied for 5-6 months.  Each month there are new papers and new findings.  with a number of concerning point such as the cardiac damage it appears to cause according to two different papers one from Germany on adults, another from the US looking at college football players. Both show a high percentage having detectable cardio damage from even minor cases of COVID. We also do not know what happens after the immunity wanes with the second infections. Are they minor or more serious? Considering the inflammation syndrome there is a lot we do not understand about how COVID interacts with the immune system, especially since a lot of the damage is done by cytokine storms and inflammation from the immune system.

 

 

Don't forget that the vaccine, if it ever exists, will also have side-effects which may be worse than those "ramifications of CV infection".

[npcl]

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

Don't forget that the vaccine, if it ever exists, will also have side-effects which may be worse than those "ramifications of CV infection".

Rather unlikely.  If it had such a side effect profile it would not get approved.

[ontheweb]

3 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

Don't forget that the vaccine, if it ever exists, will also have side-effects which may be worse than those "ramifications of CV infection".

You really do always look for the worst case scenario possible.

[cruisemom42]

On 8/10/2020 at 5:56 PM, Wonderingabout said:

Based on current statistics it appears that for almost all young people the effects of the Covid 19 Virus are far less than Measles as to be almost non-existent and perhaps the proper protocol for dealing with the virus is to let the young people get the disease and develop their immunity.  That is have the younger members of the society develop the herd immunity.  Rather than quickly quarantining the child who tests positive for the Virus he or she should be allowed to spread the disease among his or her peers.  This would accelerate the spread to the younger population and subsequently after their immunity kicks in, limit their ability to spread it to the older population.  In the interim the older population would need to be quarantined from the younger population but this could be  very limited time if the spread among the younger population was rapid even by artificially accelerating the spread to the young. 

 

We are still teasing out the effects of this virus on different groups in the population. It’s not just older people who are at risk — in some rare cases, a child’s health can be severely affected. Nearly 600 young people in the U.S., from infants to 20 year olds, have developed an inflammatory syndrome linked to Covid-19, as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Most of the children required intensive care.

 

I would not be willing to expose my only child to such as risk. Would you?  How would you feel if you did and s/he ended up in intensive care, had permanent lung damage or even died?

 

On 8/10/2020 at 5:56 PM, Wonderingabout said:

 

This is counter-intuitive thinking but maybe this is the proper solution.   A vaccine is itself a counter-intuitive solution to the Virus problem.  A Vaccine works by infecting you with the disease that you are trying to avoid.   Imagine yourself in 1796 being told that by voluntarily infecting yourself with a disease you are preventing that disease.      

 

 

It is not counter-intuitive once you understand how immunity works.

[HappyInVan]

On 8/10/2020 at 2:56 PM, Wonderingabout said:

Thinking outside the box...

 

In the interim the older population would need to be quarantined from the younger population but this could be  very limited time if the spread among the younger population was rapid even by artificially accelerating the spread to the young. 

 

 

 

This sounds like you would deliberately expose the young to the live disease?

 

What American would do that to their own children? Would you do that to your children and grandchildren? 🙄

[npcl]

1 hour ago, HappyInVan said:

 

 

This sounds like you would deliberately expose the young to the live disease?

 

What American would do that to their own children? Would you do that to your children and grandchildren? 🙄

Actually a portion of the anti-vax people around the world seem to believe in that approach. Do a search on pox parties or measles parties.

[Cruzaholic41]

6 minutes ago, npcl said:

Actually a portion of the anti-vax people around the world seem to believe in that approach. Do a search on pox parties or measles parties.

Exactly. Pox parties was named as one of Canada's must bizarre trends in 2019. 

[HappyInVan]

3 hours ago, npcl said:

Actually a portion of the anti-vax people around the world seem to believe in that approach. Do a search on pox parties or measles parties.

 

I'm aware that some young adults participate in macho I-dare-you covid events. However, Wonderingabout was referring to a deliberate strategy of 'accelerated' infection of young people.

 

That's why I challenged him about his children and grandchildren. It's a non-starter because few people would put their beloved at greater risk.

 

Why embark on 'experimental' programs? We already know what works.

 

We have the positive examples of South Korea; testing and contact tracing. Today, the country (pop 52m) reported 54 cases.

 

Even a disaster like Italy (population 60m) has been successfully salvaged. They completed their lock-down nationally. Today, just 512 cases.

 

What about New Zealand? Just watched a news clip of the Prime Minister buying veggies at the market. She wasn't wearing a mask. There was a small crowd around her. No one was wearing a mask.

 

Let's get it done, and start cruising again.

 

 

[iancal]

I cannot imagine anyone making a decision to cruise based solely on the cruise lines decision to commence cruising.   Meaningless to say the least.  How silly would that be? 

 

Most people will weigh up the situation and make a decision based upon their own situation.