This article does not bode well for cruising in 2020.

[tinleypark andy]

https://khn.org/news/dr-fauci-says-covid-vaccine-trials-could-end-early-if-results-are-overwhelming/

 

MY opinion......is that the CDC has told the cruise lines ( out of public view), that there will be no cruising in the US until a treatment or vaccine is approved.

[Stick93]

Well there is still a chance....

[PhillyFan33579]

7 minutes ago, tinleypark andy said:

https://khn.org/news/dr-fauci-says-covid-vaccine-trials-could-end-early-if-results-are-overwhelming/

 

MY opinion......is that the CDC has told the cruise lines ( out of public view), that there will be no cruising in the US until a treatment or vaccine is approved.

Did I miss something? I didn’t see anything in the linked article that discussed cruise lines. 

[ProgRockCruiser]

1 minute ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Did I miss something? I didn’t see anything in the linked article that discussed cruise lines. 

No, you didn't miss anything.

 

The OP extrapolated from the article, without any specific trigger as far as I can tell.  The CDC, as far as I am aware, has never stated "No sailing until a vaccine".  It is something they could say, I suppose, but they haven't.

[ColeThornton]

39 minutes ago, Stick93 said:

Well there is still a chance....

 

 

The chances are Slim and None and Slim just left the building.

[Tapi]

Let’s remember that cruising has safely resumed in other parts of the world without a vaccine. MSC has been operating their largest ship, MSC Grandiosa for a few weeks now successfully and without a single report of infection. TUI has already been cruising as well, and Costa and Aida (two Carnival brands) resume sailing this weekend as well.
 

I’ve always believed that rapid testing would truly provide the “turning point” necessary to restart cruising, and that has now been approved. Cruising will definitely look different, at least initially, but I think that we now have enough procedures and protocols in place to make a safe return to cruising in the America’s in a few months, with or without a vaccine. 

Edited September 2, 2020 by Tapi

[Stick93]

21 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

 

 

The chances are Slim and None and Slim just left the building.

At some point, and know one knows when the doom and gloom people will be wrong. I agree there is almost no chance cruises start before the new year, but there is still a chance. If a cruise lines will take a chance people will go. I also don't believe the first vaccine will be the answer - its my opinion and so until therapy which could be a greater answer comes our way we could be sitting like this for a while. It will take guts and innovation to get cruises out soon, maybe one of the companies will figure that out and not sit around for a vaccine  that probably will not solve our issues. 

[BlerkOne]

The CDC is not going to make a vaccine mandatory for cruising and neither are the cruise lines. Period. Full stop.

[ProgRockCruiser]

7 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

The CDC is not going to make a vaccine mandatory for cruising and neither are the cruise lines. Period. Full stop.

Perhaps.  I've learned to not be so certain about such pronouncements.

 

However, countries can insist on vaccinations prior to allowing entry - used to be quite common, actually.  So maybe after a successful and reliable vaccine is developed we might see that as a requirement imposed by the typical cruising destinations.  Ergo, you'll still need to get one to cruise.

 

Or maybe not.  I wouldn't wager either way.

[BlerkOne]

35 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

Perhaps.  I've learned to not be so certain about such pronouncements.

 

However, countries can insist on vaccinations prior to allowing entry - used to be quite common, actually.  So maybe after a successful and reliable vaccine is developed we might see that as a requirement imposed by the typical cruising destinations.  Ergo, you'll still need to get one to cruise.

 

Or maybe not.  I wouldn't wager either way.

 

Indeed countries could insist - but then, which vaccine? There are many C19 vaccines in the works. None of them are going to be 100% effective. Would you need multiple C19 vaccines? One from the port of embarkation and then one at each port of call? As of Aug 28 there are 33 vaccines in clinical evaluation.

[BlerkOne]

31 minutes ago, Dwight1 said:

I would be shocked if it was not mandatory. Any health protocol that helps to ensure safer sailing will be implemented by all cruise lines. You can count on it. It’s makes good business sense to reduce the risk.


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No C19 vaccine is going to be 100% effective and there will still be masks and social distancing for sometime which will be more effective.

[pe4all]

1 minute ago, BlerkOne said:

 

No C19 vaccine is going to be 100% effective and there will still be masks and social distancing for sometime which will be more effective.

This is correct.  But hopefully any vaccine will cut down the rate of infection, and also the severeness of the illness if someone gets it, just as the flu shot sometimes makes the flu not as severe if you come down with it.  I think masks and social distancing will be with us for quite a while.  If NY can cut down their cases to less than 1%, every other state should be able to do the same.  Just have to follow the rules. (and that will go for cruising in the future also)

[ProgRockCruiser]

4 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Indeed countries could insist - but then, which vaccine? There are many C19 vaccines in the works. None of them are going to be 100% effective. Would you need multiple C19 vaccines? One from the port of embarkation and then one at each port of call? As of Aug 28 there are 33 vaccines in clinical evaluation.

Well, as I said: "maybe after a successful and reliable vaccine is developed".  I'm not suggesting that is going to be put in place right away.  And what measures are taken in the interim will be probably quite variable for a while - some countries will just keep their doors closed, some will allow entry after a test or two, others may throw caution to the wind and treat it the same as the flu (which isn't typically tested for or monitored).

 

But eventually, like the vaccines for a lot of other diseases, it seems likely that at least one will be developed that is usefully effective (95%+?  I dunno) and has a reasonable application methodology, like the multiple shots needed for MMR.  Or maybe it will have to be a yearly vaccine, like the flu.

[Butterbean1000]

38 minutes ago, Dwight1 said:

I would be shocked if it was not mandatory. Any health protocol that helps to ensure safer sailing will be implemented by all cruise lines. You can count on it. It’s makes good business sense to reduce the risk.


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Then why stop at Covid?  Why not require a basic flu shot, a pneumonia shot, TB shot, a meningitis shot?  All of these can be contagious.  Lets not forget Norovirus and the common cold.  There is absolutely no way to have a "safe" way to cruise. 

[ProgRockCruiser]

2 minutes ago, Butterbean1000 said:

Then why stop at Covid?  Why not require a basic flu shot, a pneumonia shot, TB shot, a meningitis shot?  All of these can be contagious.  Lets not forget Norovirus and the common cold.  There is absolutely no way to have a "safe" way to cruise. 

 

Quoting from a Gov't website:

 

https://www.vaccines.gov/who_and_when/travel

 

"Some countries require proof of vaccination for certain diseases, like yellow fever or polio. "

 

The world has done a really good job, overall, of eliminating the need for constant vaccination paperwork, which was quite common decades ago. 

 

For cruising, the general assumption pre-COVID has probably been "almost all cruisers are from first-world countries that have standardized vaccinations, so the risk of entry for a single day is minuscule, so proof not required."

 

And maybe in three or four years, that will be true again.

 

In the interim, because this is a "new" disease (unlike all the other ones you listed), and the most basic elements about it are not really well understood (contagion methods, prevention techniques, long-term effects), it will be treated with caution.

[jetsfan58]

There is still prolonged debate on whether to charge the US population for this "mystery vaccine" whenever it becomes available. There is still so much work to be done folks. However, I do remain optimistic that we will cruise again "safely" not necessarily soon. Don't rush the process please. Let them get it right.

[glrounds]

1 hour ago, Dwight1 said:

I would be shocked if it was not mandatory. Any health protocol that helps to ensure safer sailing will be implemented by all cruise lines. You can count on it. It’s makes good business sense to reduce the risk.


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Precisely. In the 20s and 30s many countries including the US had vaccinations protocols. I can see cruiselines requiring PROOF of C19 vaccination in order to board. (similar to birth certificate or passport today).

[TNcruising02]

Maybe they will give passengers a choice between proof of vaccination or taking a covid test.  It's really too soon to know for sure.  The islands might require proof of vaccination.  I am fine with testing or requiring proof of vaccination (or both) once it becomes available. I don't know if cruising can happen any time soon.  I've just accepted that nobody knows and it's something we will have to wait and see.  Someday, it will happen and I am really looking forward to that day.  I will be excited to see the first cruise out of the US.

[TexasBrit]

3 hours ago, Butterbean1000 said:

Then why stop at Covid?  Why not require a basic flu shot, a pneumonia shot, TB shot, a meningitis shot?  All of these can be contagious.  Lets not forget Norovirus and the common cold.  There is absolutely no way to have a "safe" way to cruise. 

Very simple really. None of these diseases have caused the entire industry to shut down. Neither do they spread as rapidly and easily as COVID-19 does. The other previous coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS did not effect cruising at all and there were no huge outbreaks on ships. The 1919 influenza pandemic predated recreational cruising as we know it now, but I don't think passenger shipping was curtailed. There are no vaccines for common cold or Norovirus currently available, although Norovirus vaccines are in development. Since Norovirus does cause serious issues on cruise ships, it is entirely possible that if and when a vaccine is available, it may be at least recommended for cruising.

[Earthworm Jim]

5 hours ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

But eventually, like the vaccines for a lot of other diseases, it seems likely that at least one will be developed that is usefully effective (95%+?  I dunno)...

 

Even a 50% effective vaccine (which the CDC has said they would approve) would be usefully effective. You'd like better, but cutting your risk of infection in half would still be a good thing.

[BlerkOne]

6 hours ago, Butterbean1000 said:

Then why stop at Covid?  Why not require a basic flu shot, a pneumonia shot, TB shot, a meningitis shot?  All of these can be contagious.  Lets not forget Norovirus and the common cold.  There is absolutely no way to have a "safe" way to cruise. 

There are effective treatments for many of those.

 

 

[BlerkOne]

11 minutes ago, Earthworm Jim said:

 

Even a 50% effective vaccine (which the CDC has said they would approve) would be usefully effective. You'd like better, but cutting your risk of infection in half would still be a good thing.

 

I think the 50% number is out the window and it would be the FDA via an emergency use declaration. Too much pressure from people who know too little. The upper bound might be 70% on a great day, with extreme luck. The virus is mutating.

[ninjacat123]

Let's hope that the experts are learning from this and when another possible "pandemic" occurs, there are decisions made that save lives and keep our economy running.

[embarkation75]

19 hours ago, Dwight1 said:

I wouldn’t be at all reasonably sure until after mid year 2021. The first vaccines will all go to health workers and high risk. The general public will not get the vaccine until the later half of 2021. Unless your on a cruise September 2021 or later I also doubt it will get the ok to go ahead and sail from a US port.


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Latter half of 2021 for a vaccine to the general public is overly pessimistic as the US will already have anywhere from tens of millions doses to a hundred million by early 2021 and several hundred million more doses already locked into agreements by early 2021...

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fauci-vaccine-inte/fauci-expects-tens-of-millions-of-coronavirus-vaccine-doses-at-start-of-2021-idUSKCN2512Z4

[monykalyn]

11 hours ago, embarkation75 said:

 

Latter half of 2021 for a vaccine to the general public is overly pessimistic as the US will already have anywhere from tens of millions doses to a hundred million by early 2021 and several hundred million more doses already locked into agreements by early 2021...

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fauci-vaccine-inte/fauci-expects-tens-of-millions-of-coronavirus-vaccine-doses-at-start-of-2021-idUSKCN2512Z4

IF big IF- they work. However when you listen to top virologists- who’ve actually worked and developed vaccines, not a talking head who’s survived 6 administrations-many are really hesitant about the rush on the vaccines. Dr Paul Offit has given some really excellent interviews on why he’s cautious.  He developed a vaccine so the Doc has the credentials. Google him for his interviews on covid vaccines, he’s sure one will be developed but lots of magical perfection has to happen for it to be realistically ready this year, or even by next summer. He explains why the timeline  CAN be shortened and where shortcuts shouldn’t be taken- as in the phase 3 trials. 

Edited September 4, 2020 by monykalyn