When Will We Feel Safe to Cruise Again

[Mike45LC]

I do not want to take a cruise with masks required and other Wuhan-virus "safety protocols" in place.  But my expectation is that once a reasonably safe and effective vaccine is approved and in widespread use, we can get back to near-normal, and I will be among the first in line to resume cruising.

 

I hope to be cruising again in the Fall of 2021.  I do not consider Spring of 2021 to be realistic, but I can hope!  

[mcrcruiser]

Both Pfizer & Moderna  claimed to be out with a vaccine the  end of October .

 

 Here is some general information  on vaccine production :

 

https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search;_ylt=AwrWnaMBbF1fPx4ASQ4PxQt.;_ylu=Y29sbwNncTEEcG9zAzEEdnRpZANDMDc4MV8xBHNlYwNxcnc-?type=asbw_8923_CHW_US_tid1190&hsimp=yhs-syn&hspart=iba&fr=yhs-iba-syn&ei=UTF-8&p=which+2+big+pharma+are+close+to+the+covid+19+vaccine&fr2=12642

 

   There will only be 2,000,000 units initially from Pfizer  & 1,000,00  fro, Moderna .First Responders get it first ,then nursing home patients /& then us the elderly who are high risk with underlying medical conditions .Personally my doctor would need to tell me that the vaccine is safe before we get it 

 

[mcrcruiser]

imo like the op said that the full benefit of the vaccine most likely will  not be until mid 2021 ;as a best guess  forward 

[mcrcruiser]

People like us in the high risk category with underlying medical conditions need all the assurance that we would be safe on any cruise ship . Just thinking if that Diamond Princess  & all who died send shivers up my spine  .Thus ,we must be assured t of total safety against covid 19   before we would ever board any cruise ship 

[mcrcruiser]

53 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

There are a few vaccines entering phase3, nobody knows efficacy and potential downside till they complete a full on trail.  We all know they rushed everything.

 

No vaccine on record has been done in under four years, and we think we can get one out the door in less than a year and roll out a few hundred million doses in the US and maybe a billion, sounds like silly fantasy.

 

A vaccines should have always been a part of a larger systematic strategy.  In some countries they moved like they had strategy in place, the US was well we all know the circus here.

 

Here in the west you got Pandemic, economic crisis and now the fire, amazing, anything else for 2020, LOL

 

 imo we saw a full on set to control the virus .We were lacking in ventilators ,masks ,gowns ,all the ppe needed because the back up supplies were very low . Government pushed production as if it was a world war to get supplies out asap .  People spread the virus because they were not wearing the masks . It will  take the vaccine to ultimately kill this virus ,world wide .It is very infectious much like when amall pox was in the world  .both are very infectious diseases .

 

 As far as the fires in Calif ,Oregon & Washington are concerned ,I know that appropriate forest management had not been done for the past 40 years in California .We lived in California  since 1966  .  The problem is not managing & clearing the forests .   Politicians use the blame game by calling it climate change  .Well from the beginning of time the earth has gone through various degrees of climate changes but it takes thousands of years   Our state politicians need to tell the truth & not blame others for their lack of attention to the forests 

 

 

  

[mcrcruiser]

Should people shun the vaccine other than for medical reasons  then the world will be  potentially exposed to a new mutated form & the then existing vaccine would be ineffective against the new mutated form .This virus has already mutated once.  imo to destroy  the virus the world will need to get the vaccine 

[Ombud]

I'm not high risk, never seem to get anything other than cancer and that's just because I've got a few missing chromosomes. Nothing really except I don't get a lot of the vaccines. So I've booked 3: April 2021 TA, August 2021 Alaska, following April Pacific Northwest. I really don't care if I wear a mask onboard or not. I wear one here

 

The one thing I've done is up my cabin category. Instead of usually P301-P332 with an occasional balcony, I'm booking premium balconies with an occasional mini-suite. If I'm stuck in a room, I want my own balcony. If its just me a B1-4 is fine but if I've got 2 kids with me, I want 2 TVs.

Edited September 13, 2020 by Ombud

[masterty]

Can not speak for others. but I felt safe to cruise in April 2020. Once I learned how insignificant Covid-19 is. 
Lets Cruise! 

[npcl]

it will be safe to cruise from US ports when the new case counts get low enough per million get low enough that the odds of a passenger getting on a cruise is low.  Then back up that probability with pre cruise testing to further lower the odds.

 

Of course even with a vaccine and people following social distancing/mask requirements that may take several months after the vaccine is out, effective with a good inoculation rate.

 

It is possible that vaccine could be available by the end of the year, but the probability is pretty low. a number of things (infections in the trial population, determined efficacy rate, etc) would all have to go extremely well.

Edited September 13, 2020 by npcl

[caribill]

11 hours ago, Babr said:

Based on what public health officials and doctors involved in vaccine development say, I think the October-November approval of a vaccine is more aspirational than real. Once released, the logistics of getting people vaccinated would take a long time. It may be mid-2021 before it is readily available to the general public. In the meantime, the vaccine is not likely to be 100% effective, so we may still have to follow public health guidelines until the virus is well controlled. 
 

As much as I miss cruising, I’m in no hurry to return to something so greatly altered that it is no longer the same experience.

 

Among the challenges is that at least two of the promising candidates must be stored at -20 to -60 degrees C.

 

I doubt any pharmacy has storage available at those temperatures and possibly no doctors' offices.

[abqmommyof4]

When do we sail???

 

I'm not looking to get covid, but if I get it and die I get reunited with my daughter who has been gone 9 years in November.  Which is why we cruise, to get away from everything.

 

I really need to cruise

[mcrcruiser]

5 hours ago, caribill said:

 

Among the challenges is that at least two of the promising candidates must be stored at -20 to -60 degrees C.

 

I doubt any pharmacy has storage available at those temperatures and possibly no doctors' offices.

 Can you  put ip a link  that supports the -20 to -50 degree  C required to store the vaccine .We never came across that information  in reading about the potential vaccines  now in clinical trials 

[voljeep]

11 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

People like us in the high risk category with underlying medical conditions need all the assurance that we would be safe on any cruise ship . Just thinking if that Diamond Princess  & all who died send shivers up my spine  .Thus ,we must be assured t of total safety against covid 19   before we would ever board any cruise ship 

see you on board in a couple of years then, if at all, as there are, and never will be 'assured of total safety'

[skynight]

6 hours ago, caribill said:

 

Among the challenges is that at least two of the promising candidates must be stored at -20 to -60 degrees C.

 

I doubt any pharmacy has storage available at those temperatures and possibly no doctors' offices.

Vaccine shipping 101.

I worked for a pharmaceutical company for 35 years. We shipped vaccines to all local locations and to destinations all over the world. Minus 20C to minus 60C is common for many vaccines. For shipping the vaccine is packed into special packaging with dry ice. Dry ice sublimates at minus 78 degrees C. Once received at the location the product is stored in a freezer. Freezers typically store at minus 20 degrees C (minus 4 degrees F) or colder. Some vaccines are shipped and stored between 2 to 8 degrees C, as freezing will compromise the product. It depends on the vaccine.

It is common for a pharmacy, hospital, doctors office, etc. to have this type of storage.

[mcrcruiser]

3 minutes ago, skynight said:

Vaccine shipping 101.

I worked for a pharmaceutical company for 35 years. We shipped vaccines to all local locations and to destinations all over the world. Minus 20C to minus 60C is common for many vaccines. For shipping the vaccine is packed into special packaging with dry ice. Dry ice sublimates at minus 78 degrees C. Once received at the location the product is stored in a freezer. Freezers typically store at minus 20 degrees C (minus 4 degrees F) or colder. Some vaccines are shipped and stored between 2 to 8 degrees C, as freezing will compromise the product. It depends on the vaccine.

It is common for a pharmacy, hospital, doctors office, etc. to have this type of storage.

so you are saying that the facilities  you listed are  presently capable  of storing the vaccines as need be  to inject people .Is that correct ?  BTW I recall that the shingles vaccine was in that state & had to be administered within a relative  short period of time 

[Cruise Raider]

17 hours ago, stoneharborlady said:

 

I doubt very much that a vaccine will be available this year.  The claims that it will are not coming from epidemiologists, or any one else in the health field, but rather from politicians, who do not know what they are talking about. 

 

 

 

I've read a few sources earlier this month that cite the CDC stating that all 50 states should gear up to have a plan to roll out for a potential CoVid vaccine by November or December.  While I have my doubts and feel it is a very optimistic view of what will actually happen, it isn't just politicians stating this.  

Edited September 13, 2020 by Cruise Raider

[stoneharborlady]

19 minutes ago, Cruise Raider said:

 

I've read a few sources earlier this month that cite the CDC stating that all 50 states should gear up to have a plan to roll out for a potential CoVid vaccine by November or December.  While I have my doubts and feel it is a very optimistic view of what will actually happen, it isn't just politicians stating this.  

 

Having a plan to roll things out when the vaccine becomes available means just that.  Figuring out a plan to roll things out.  Not quite the same as having a vaccine in hand ready to give to the public. I do not believe the public will see a vaccine for Covid 19 anytime in 2020.

[roxievegas]

We are currently booked on Royal Princess, in April 2021.  If the ship sails, we will be on it.  We are in our late 60's.  We have no problem wearing masks on board.  We have done this cruise before and if we need to stay on board the whole time, we would.  I booked a balcony so if we spend a lot of time in the cabin, we won't feel trapped.

 

We did a 34 night B2B2B cruise in 2016.  The first leg was a 15 night transatlantic.  The second leg was 9 night Norway - we both caught a horrible cold with a hacking cough.  We were miserable and spent most of the time in our cabin, which fortunately was a suite for that portion.  By the time we were on the third leg of our cruise (Baltic) we were over the cough and felt great and we had a wonderful time.   You can catch something anytime, any place. 

 

Everyone has to make decisions on what is best for them, and everyone around them.  I don't want to get sick and certainly don't want to get anyone else sick.  But like everyone, I am ready to travel, get out of the house, and start living again.

[skynight]

1 hour ago, mcrcruiser said:

so you are saying that the facilities  you listed are  presently capable  of storing the vaccines as need be  to inject people .Is that correct ?  BTW I recall that the shingles vaccine was in that state & had to be administered within a relative  short period of time 

Yes, facilities that we shipped to had vaccine storage facilities for most vaccines, frozen or refrigeration. But remember that these are vaccines that have been around for a long time and quantities required  and when they are required are fairly well established. Besides temperature there are specific protocols on the handling. These protocols are most likely not fully established, probably part of the phase III studies, for any potential Covid vaccine. Any massive distribution of a Covid vaccine will require massive logistic efforts. How to get large amounts of a Covid vaccine to the point of use is part of this effort.

The shingles vaccine you refer to is probably Zostavax. That vaccine had to be kept frozen. When we got the shot our doctor did not stock this vaccine, probably because of the high cost. The pharmacy had to order the vaccine. Then we arranged to pick it up at the pharmacy 15 minutes away from the doctor's office and bring it to the doctor's office. The pharmacy had it packed in a small insulated container with dry ice, probably the same container they received it in from the manufacturer. My understanding was that the issue was more about the very high cost rather than storage related. Our medical plan paid, no cost to us. 

 

[Cruise Raider]

1 hour ago, mcrcruiser said:

We have a Jan 15 2022 booking on Majestic Princess to the Mexican Riviera  . We have done this route many many times . This cruise would be # 88  in our cruising career . However ,we will not place ourselves in harms way should we not feel safe aboard any ship . The question begs to be answered  :how could any one feel safe & comfortable & fully enjoy a cruise if there are probabilities of getting very ill . We hope that both the cruise lines & cruise passengers have the sense to not  be purposely placed in harms way .

 

I fully respect your decision not to cruise.  I never have and wouldn't ever cruise while knowing I was sick and could be infectious to others.  However, every time we walk out the door, we place ourselves in harm's way.  We've been on cruises where people have passed away, gotten broken bones from rough seas, seen emergency evacuations, been on two norovirus sailings, seen people board with other highly infectious diseases, even picked up a couple of those nasty bugs myself over my last 60 cruises.  The decision to cruise or stay home should be based on one's current health status and their tolerance to risk.  Cruising means different things to all people.  For me, wearing a mask and frequent hand hygiene, physical distancing from others, etc. would be right up my alley.  Sitting on my balcony with my DH, while watching the beautiful scenery, even if that is just the horizon out over the sea, is my idea of a dream come true.  I don't need to socialize or meet new people, be seated with strangers at dinner, eat at a buffet, crowd into a theater to see a show, go out on my own while in port, etc to have a great time on a cruise.   Again, I respect that others have a different point of view.  Those particularly vulnerable to the severe manifestations of CoVid should take every precaution they feel is necessary.  

Just to see if it was doable to wear a mask whenever outside of my room, I recently took a short vacation.  Yes, in some people's opinion, I may have been putting myself in harm's way but, probably no more than going to Costco to shop for groceries, getting a hair cut, going out to eat, going to the doctor's office for an annual exam or to the dentist for a cleaning.  Life is full of risks  and there is an inherent risk to isolation, as well.  So, I will take my precautions (masks, distancing, good sleep, vitamins, etc), adhere to my doctor's advice but, it is high time to continue living my life outside of these four walls.  If a cruise is available and if I am healthy, I'm going to be one of the first ones to book it.  I feel it is probably the safest time to go as very strict guidelines will be in place when they first start back up again.  It will probably keep people from spreading norovirus, colds and the flu, as well.  I always say, the safest time to fly on a plane is shortly after a deadly plane crash.  

[Cruise Raider]

25 minutes ago, stoneharborlady said:

 

Having a plan to roll things out when the vaccine becomes available means just that.  Figuring out a plan to roll things out.  Not quite the same as having a vaccine in hand ready to give to the public. I do not believe the public will see a vaccine for Covid 19 anytime in 2020.

 

Here's an article that has more optimistic timeline than yours (or mine, for that matter).  And yes, it probably will only be available for specific populations, not the general public.  Even Fauci, at the end of the attached article, says it is possible to have a vaccine by the end of the year.  We will just have to wait and see ... 

 

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-09-02/cdc-tells-states-to-prep-coronavirus-vaccine-distribution-sites-by-early-november

 

PS ... when our lockdown started back in March, we were told two weeks.  Then, it was extended for a few more weeks, then, by another couple months until they just made it indefinite.  This vaccine timeline MAY be much of the same ... just stringing us along. 

My only point is that it is not JUST the politicians saying there could be a vaccine available by the end of the year, as you said in your post, the CDC and Fauci are also stating this.  Does it give me hope?  Somewhat but, I am still taking a rather cynical 'we'll see about that' approach only because of the way they have handled the lockdown.  

[caribill]

2 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

 Can you  put in a link  that supports the -20 to -60 degree  C required to store the vaccine .We never came across that information  in reading about the potential vaccines  now in clinical trials 

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/moderna-and-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-candidates-require-ultra-low-temperatures-raising-questions-about-storage-distribution-2020-08-27

 

Executives from Moderna and Pfizer on Wednesday separately told the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice on Wednesday that mRNA-1273, which is Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine candidate, requires a storage temperature of negative 4 degrees Fahrenheit. BioNTech and Pfizer’s candidates, BN1162b2 and BNT162b2, need to be stored in negative 94 degrees Fahrenheit.

 

“These storage conditions would make traditional office or pharmacy administration very difficult,” SVB Leerink analysts wrote in a note to investors on Thursday. “These conditions could be met at tertiary hospitals and laboratories and could be accommodated in intensive one-day vaccination events at such sites, but this would still only cover a fraction of the healthy population.”

[c-boy]

I'll buy stock in dry ice producing companies.

[voljeep]

1 hour ago, Cruise Raider said:

.  For me, wearing a mask and frequent hand hygiene, physical distancing from others, etc. would be right up my alley.  Sitting on my balcony with my DH, while watching the beautiful scenery, even if that is just the horizon out over the sea, is my idea of a dream come true.  I don't need to socialize or meet new people, be seated with strangers at dinner, eat at a buffet, crowd into a theater to see a show, go out on my own while in port, etc to have a great time on a cruise. 

#ustoo with a couple of changes - me and my wife - do like to go out on our own in ports if we are just going to walk around the port area - we have no problem with Princess excursions, and yes they are more expensive and generic, but we accept that

 

we are ship people, not cabin people - as we like to people watch as much as anything else

 

it's OB or higher for us now, where before we were happy with an inside

 

stay safe

stay hydrated

[skynight]

45 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/moderna-and-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-candidates-require-ultra-low-temperatures-raising-questions-about-storage-distribution-2020-08-27

 

Executives from Moderna and Pfizer on Wednesday separately told the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice on Wednesday that mRNA-1273, which is Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine candidate, requires a storage temperature of negative 4 degrees Fahrenheit. BioNTech and Pfizer’s candidates, BN1162b2 and BNT162b2, need to be stored in negative 94 degrees Fahrenheit.

 

“These storage conditions would make traditional office or pharmacy administration very difficult,” SVB Leerink analysts wrote in a note to investors on Thursday. “These conditions could be met at tertiary hospitals and laboratories and could be accommodated in intensive one-day vaccination events at such sites, but this would still only cover a fraction of the healthy population.”

Minus 4 F (-20C) is dry ice shipping. Freezers are available for storage at these temperatures. Minus 94F (-35C) is still in the dry ice range, but probably requires special low temperature freezers for storage.

In both cases the distribution logistic issues are massive.