Well, that didn't last

[mek]

3 minutes ago, CruiseMH said:

 

1. You need to be able to produce enough vaccine.Sounds simple,but it isn`t.

2. Almost all vaccines need to be injected twice within a specific period of time to be effective. One injection usually is not enough.

3. Simple mathematics.In the US there are 2,6 doctors per 1000 citizens. You will need a lot of doctors for the regular medical care of the population.On the other side you do have have medical assistants. So lets use this no. of 2 medical staff per 1000 citizens. Makes a total medical staff of 660.000. But realistically only 50-60% of the staff is qualified to vaccinate people.(it is a bit more thatn just giving an injection)

Makes 350.000 available people. If every person of this staff can vaccinate 6 people per day(sounds little but is realistic) that would make it 2 million people per day. So for the total population of the US you would need mathematically art least 165 days for ONE injection. But as i already mentioned all experts say that you will need at least 2 injections. Makes it 330 days net. And this is the theory.

In practice you need to keep in mind that not all medical staff is available at the same time.

vacation , free days, other medical care and the bureaucracy are factors that will reduce the max. number of daily possible vaccinations significantly.

 

So, in practice it would take one to two years to finish the vaccination of the population.

And even if there are people who don`t want to be vaccinated there will be most likely an order of which people will be vaccinated first.(e.g. all the medical staff, fire fighters,policve officers, all other people at high risk). People who want to get vaccination because they need it for a cruise will not be the ones with top priority.

So thats why you should calculate with at least 1,5 years between the release of a vaccine and an effective effect.

 

I see no reason why a doctor or nurse has to administer the shot(s).  My pharmacist gives me my flu shot and CVS is one of the drug stores involved in the rollout.

[hamrag]

2 hours ago, CruiseMH said:

 

1. You need to be able to produce enough vaccine.Sounds simple,but it isn`t.

2. Almost all vaccines need to be injected twice within a specific period of time to be effective. One injection usually is not enough.

3. Simple mathematics.In the US there are 2,6 doctors per 1000 citizens. You will need a lot of doctors for the regular medical care of the population.On the other side you do have have medical assistants. So lets use this no. of 2 medical staff per 1000 citizens. Makes a total medical staff of 660.000. But realistically only 50-60% of the staff is qualified to vaccinate people.(it is a bit more thatn just giving an injection)

Makes 350.000 available people. If every person of this staff can vaccinate 6 people per day(sounds little but is realistic) that would make it 2 million people per day. So for the total population of the US you would need mathematically art least 165 days for ONE injection. But as i already mentioned all experts say that you will need at least 2 injections. Makes it 330 days net. And this is the theory.

In practice you need to keep in mind that not all medical staff is available at the same time.

vacation , free days, other medical care and the bureaucracy are factors that will reduce the max. number of daily possible vaccinations significantly.

 

So, in practice it would take one to two years to finish the vaccination of the population.

And even if there are people who don`t want to be vaccinated there will be most likely an order of which people will be vaccinated first.(e.g. all the medical staff, fire fighters,policve officers, all other people at high risk). People who want to get vaccination because they need it for a cruise will not be the ones with top priority.

So thats why you should calculate with at least 1,5 years between the release of a vaccine and an effective effect.

 

 

I am so glad you weren't my maths teacher, way too pessimistic with your 'assumptions'!!

 

Edited November 15, 2020 by hamrag

[PelicanBill]

9 hours ago, mek said:

I see no reason why a doctor or nurse has to administer the shot(s).  My pharmacist gives me my flu shot and CVS is one of the drug stores involved in the rollout.

Pharmacist licensing is handled different state by state. in NY, we were one of the last states where Flu vaccines could be given by pharmacists.  All others must still be given by a doctor or a nurse under doctor supervision.  They are probably readying an order to allow pharmacists to give Covid vaccines though.  The real challenge is how many pharmacies and doctor's offices will be able to store the vaccine, and reserve and store the quantities needed to ensure the second dose is waiting for everyone they give a first dose to.

[notmyrealnameoremail]

15 hours ago, CruiseMH said:

 

1. You need to be able to produce enough vaccine.Sounds simple,but it isn`t.

2. Almost all vaccines need to be injected twice within a specific period of time to be effective. One injection usually is not enough.

3. Simple mathematics.In the US there are 2,6 doctors per 1000 citizens. You will need a lot of doctors for the regular medical care of the population.On the other side you do have have medical assistants. So lets use this no. of 2 medical staff per 1000 citizens. Makes a total medical staff of 660.000. But realistically only 50-60% of the staff is qualified to vaccinate people.(it is a bit more thatn just giving an injection)

Makes 350.000 available people. If every person of this staff can vaccinate 6 people per day(sounds little but is realistic) that would make it 2 million people per day. So for the total population of the US you would need mathematically art least 165 days for ONE injection. But as i already mentioned all experts say that you will need at least 2 injections. Makes it 330 days net. And this is the theory.

In practice you need to keep in mind that not all medical staff is available at the same time.

vacation , free days, other medical care and the bureaucracy are factors that will reduce the max. number of daily possible vaccinations significantly.

 

So, in practice it would take one to two years to finish the vaccination of the population.

And even if there are people who don`t want to be vaccinated there will be most likely an order of which people will be vaccinated first.(e.g. all the medical staff, fire fighters,policve officers, all other people at high risk). People who want to get vaccination because they need it for a cruise will not be the ones with top priority.

So thats why you should calculate with at least 1,5 years between the release of a vaccine and an effective effect.

 

 

5 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

Pharmacist licensing is handled different state by state. in NY, we were one of the last states where Flu vaccines could be given by pharmacists.  All others must still be given by a doctor or a nurse under doctor supervision.  They are probably readying an order to allow pharmacists to give Covid vaccines though.  The real challenge is how many pharmacies and doctor's offices will be able to store the vaccine, and reserve and store the quantities needed to ensure the second dose is waiting for everyone they give a first dose to.

 

While there will be huge logistics challenges with Covid-19 vaccines I don't think the number of people required to administer them will be the problem.  Most states allow pharmacists to give many vaccines:

 

https://naspa.us/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/IZ-Authority-9_2020.pdf

 

While this vaccine may take longer than the flu vaccine, when my wife and I got both flu and shingles vaccines this year we were in and out in ten minutes.  YMMV

[mek]

1 hour ago, notmyrealnameoremail said:

 

 

While there will be huge logistics challenges with Covid-19 vaccines I don't think the number of people required to administer them will be the problem.  Most states allow pharmacists to give many vaccines:

 

https://naspa.us/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/IZ-Authority-9_2020.pdf

 

While this vaccine may take longer than the flu vaccine, when my wife and I got both flu and shingles vaccines this year we were in and out in ten minutes.  YMMV

I honestly don't think getting the shot(s) will be a problem for those who want it.  Most of my family have said they won't and I have a couple of friends who feel the same way.  Lots of people are in a wait and see mode.  While I totally disagree with them, that is the reality.

[Cruising Lynne]

I noticed CruiseMH, with the pessimistic math, is from Germany. I guess we are lucky in the US that we have a CVS or Walgreen's pharmacy on practically every street corner. Plus, pharmacies in major grocery stores etc. that routinely administer flu shots. Once the Covid vaccine is available, it would not take too long for people who wanted it to get it, with distribution through the pharmacies.

[MrsKC08]

On 11/12/2020 at 8:51 AM, wdsted said:

Unfortunately, this is exactly the problem with resuming cruises.  Until a vaccine is available and required of all passengers, cruising ain’t gonna happen.

First, anyone would be crazy to take this vaccine immediately after being released. There has not been enough testing to know what the long term affects of this vaccine would be on someone. Not to mention....the RUSH to get it out. We have had the flu vaccine for decades and people still get the flu after taking the vaccine. The only time I have ever had the flu, I had gotten the vaccine. Since not taking the vaccine I have not gotten the flu...knock on wood. BUT, should I get the flu, I will be ok....like millions of others every flu season.

 

On 11/12/2020 at 9:13 PM, All-ready2cruise said:

Yeah, it really does spread like wildfire... unfortunate that may don't understand that.  

 

So wish that this pandemic were understood better. 

 

STay safe, wear a mask... serously!

It is a virus, so yes...it can spread. However, there are many cases where someone in a home tested positive and others living in that same home never got it. Oh...let's not forget the countless positive tests that come back as negative with a second test.

 

On 11/13/2020 at 3:45 PM, cmh said:

I agree.  I have a cruise the end of March, but unless there is a vaccine by then, I will cancel. it just shows that even if everyone tests negative, the virus can still be present and spread.

We moved our February cruise back to November 2021...ONLY because we refuse to sail with restrictions, like masks and excursions. BTW, there have been several that tested positive, only to have a second and third test come back negative. So....

 

On 11/14/2020 at 6:12 AM, dam64 said:

Why would anyone even want to cruise during a pandemic?! I will not go near a cruise ship or airplane or travel until there is a vaccine!

I was on one of the last cruises (Getaway) prior to the shut down. It was easily one of the best cruises I have been on and quite frankly, I would get on a cruise this weekend if I could!  Now...an airplane is a little different story, but...if it involved traveling on a plane to get on a cruise, then yes I would!

 

On 11/14/2020 at 7:12 AM, PhillyTravelBug said:

No face mask protocol? How dumb can you possibly be? It just goes to show how little we have learned. I will wait until I’m vaccinated.

Well, considering that the CDC themselves stated that 85% of those with the virus were wearing masks...I guess it makes perfect sense to not have a mask protocol. But I digress. 

 

On 11/14/2020 at 1:01 PM, CruiseMH said:

Why would anybody let the pandemic control their life?

 

 

EXACTLY!!!

Unfortunately we have seen throughout this "pandemic" that people take what they are fed and told by the MSM and run with it...even without truth or knowledge to back up such claims. I am a realist and logical person. I'm also a numbers person and refuse to let someone tell me how to think or feel. I do my research and have had PERSONAL experience with this virus. I will not live in fear, nor will I let someone dictate what I was feel about this virus. 

 

I am ready to cruise, and would cruise in a NY minute...but without a vaccine and without restrictions. I will not pay my good hard earned money on a vacation to be restricted on what excursions I can do, or required to wear a mask when outside of my cabin. If I was scared of catching this virus, I would simply not travel...ANYWHERE, since the fact of the matter is that you can catch it anywhere. 

 

These people could have easily brought the virus on the ship when they started the cruise. Having temperature checks and testing has been proved to not be 100% effective. 

 

[DCGuy64]

@MrsKC08: Very well stated. I think it's pretty clear there are some people out there who won't be cruising again until every last vestige of COVID-19 has been banished from the earth for all eternity. Still others are waiting for a vaccine (presumably one that has a 100% guarantee against the virus) and others who are waiting for herd immunity. Nevertheless, RCI has had more than 100,000 people sign up to be volunteers on a free test cruise, and that's while the pandemic continues and no vaccines have begun wide distribution (although the ones developed by Pfizer and Moderna seem promising). So I'd say there are PLENTY of people out there like me who are ready to sail tomorrow. I've never lived my life with a bunker mentality and I'm not about to start now.

[CruiseMH]

2 hours ago, Cruising Lynne said:

I noticed CruiseMH, with the pessimistic math, is from Germany. I guess we are lucky in the US that we have a CVS or Walgreen's pharmacy on practically every street corner. Plus, pharmacies in major grocery stores etc. that routinely administer flu shots. Once the Covid vaccine is available, it would not take too long for people who wanted it to get it, with distribution through the pharmacies.

I didn`t know that in the US every pharmacy can do it. In this case it will of course not take years,but only months or weeks(depending on how many people want to get it)

 

 

[disneykins]

On 11/14/2020 at 2:01 PM, CruiseMH said:

Why would anybody let the pandemic control their life?

People go to bars and restaurants(if they are open), they go in amusement parks and on beach holidays in hotels,they try to make their life as normal as possible. If cruising is safe (and TUi shows that it is safe !) then why not? If we all wait for an effective vaccine then there won`t be any cruise lines left we can use for cruising ! And even if the vaccine exists,it would takes years to get the whole population vaccined.

 

 

But you can't catch it in any of those places, only on cruise ships, lol. I don't know where everybody is getting this damned thing. If it was restaurants or theme parks or airplanes or hotels or bars or WalMart or Macy's, wouldn't they all be shut down and everybody quarantined? 

 

It's too bad about the Sea Dream 1, but from what I'm reading, the sick passengers are all recovering at home or in isolation. The passengers who tested negative all flew home on commercial planes with no quarantine in Barbados or when they get home (not sure about that). If one of them tests positive after getting home, does that mean all the people on the flight are susceptible? So they should be quarantined? 

 

I don't think I would be first in line to take the vaccine, but I would be near the front of the line to cruise, even without the vaccine. I am pretty healthy, no serious pre-conditions. I would be more scared of flying to a port, very tight quarters for 5 or 6 hours, so I guess I have to wait for the border to open so I can drive to Florida again. Not optimistic that it will happen before the summer though.

[hamrag]

3 hours ago, MrsKC08 said:

First, anyone would be crazy to take this vaccine immediately after being released. There has not been enough testing to know what the long term affects of this vaccine would be on someone. Not to mention....the RUSH to get it out. We have had the flu vaccine for decades and people still get the flu after taking the vaccine. The only time I have ever had the flu, I had gotten the vaccine. Since not taking the vaccine I have not gotten the flu...knock on wood. BUT, should I get the flu, I will be ok....like millions of others every flu season........

 

And in one loooooong diatribe, there is no way I am quoting all of it, we are reminded why (oh why) both the USofA and the UK COVID-19 numbers are reaching for the sky....

[oteixeira]

3 hours ago, CruiseMH said:

I didn`t know that in the US every pharmacy can do it. In this case it will of course not take years,but only months or weeks(depending on how many people want to get it)

 

 

Many outlets are saying if you want it, by April you probably could get it, as many people will pass on it, even though they are older and have existing conditions.  As soon as I can get it, I will. 

I said this in another post but Phase 3 trials for most drugs are 3000 people (that is the average, you can be as low as 100 people) and then they get distributed to the masses.  These two vaccines have had 10x of that.  To say they did not test properly is not understanding the simple truth in the studies.

[farmersfight]

3 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

Many outlets are saying if you want it, by April you probably could get it, as many people will pass on it

 

That would be awesome. I'm with you, give me the shot(s) as soon as I can get it. I saw somewhere that it may be 5 months until the vaccine is being administered to the general population. If you start the clock in the start of Jan 2021, you'd be looking at May 2021. However, if the clock starts at the start of Dec 2020, the 5 months puts you at April 2021, just as you said.

[CruiseMH]

15 hours ago, disneykins said:

 I don't know where everybody is getting this damned thing. If it was restaurants or theme parks or airplanes or hotels or bars or WalMart or Macy's, wouldn't they all be shut down and everybody quarantined? 

 

What do you think why Spain,France, UK, Italy and Germany did close all these things for a few weeks in spring and are closing them right now again ? At least in germany 80% of the infections come from clubs,bars,restaurants and private partys.

 

 

 

[farmersfight]

9 minutes ago, CruiseMH said:

80% of the infections come from clubs,bars,restaurants and private partys.

 

Hmmm...kind of sounds like a cruise ship environment.

[crystalaziza]

On 11/11/2020 at 7:54 PM, beerman2 said:

Yep 53 pax and 66 crew on board. Now pax confined to cabin. Sounds like fun.

Isn't this the ship that admitted to not wearing any masks. They were not following their protocol or enforcing it. 

[DCGuy64]

43 minutes ago, crystalaziza said:

Isn't this the ship that admitted to not wearing any masks. They were not following their protocol or enforcing it. 

You're partially correct: the ship didn't require masks for the first 20+ days, but did ask passengers to wear them toward the end. It's worth noting that there were no incidents of COVID among the passengers who embarked in Norway or in the UK. The passengers who brought COVID aboard were from the US (California, I believe), and they embarked in Barbados.

[beerman2]

1 hour ago, crystalaziza said:

Isn't this the ship that admitted to not wearing any masks. They were not following their protocol or enforcing it. 

Yes and the lingering question is will ALL pax , once cruising begins, adhere to wearing masks? Secondly how will crew enforce.

Get 1 warning , second confined to cabin until next port then removed from ship?

 

 

[crystalaziza]

27 minutes ago, beerman2 said:

Yes and the lingering question is will ALL pax , once cruising begins, adhere to wearing masks? Secondly how will crew enforce.

Get 1 warning , second confined to cabin until next port then removed from ship?

 

 

Time will tell, but what gets me is that people know what the rules are going to be set in place and when they are aboard they all of a sudden become above the rules. Just like the people who went on their own in port, were denied re boarding. People don't seem to realize what these cruise lines have been through and I don't believe the cruise lines are going to be up to playing games with passengers in the future who think they don't have to follow the rules. Do I want to wear a mask? NO! Will I wear a mask to be able to cruise? YES! UGH

[hamrag]

3 hours ago, DCGuy64 said:

You're partially correct: the ship didn't require masks for the first 20+ days, but did ask passengers to wear them toward the end. It's worth noting that there were no incidents of COVID among the passengers who embarked in Norway or in the UK. The passengers who brought COVID aboard were from the US (California, I believe), and they embarked in Barbados.

 

Another incident supporting the view (held by many) that a vaccine will be mandatory for boarding any cruise in the foreseeable future.

[BermudaBound2014]

6 hours ago, crystalaziza said:

Isn't this the ship that admitted to not wearing any masks. They were not following their protocol or enforcing it. 

 

Masks were not part of the original protocol because SeaDream tested passengers twice before they boarded. Once 72 hours prior and once again at embarkation. SeaDream passengers were not wearing masks the entire season in Norway with no Covid. SeaDream also had only 53 passengers onboard and they had extensive protocols in place for cleaning (even more strict than the CDC is requiring). With these protocols, they didn't feel masks were necessary. Eventually, once they reached the Caribbean, I believe it was Barbados who requested masks be worn, but don't quote me on that because I'm not positive about what government agency was involved.

 

 IMO if SeaDream couldn't keep Covid off ship given they are a luxury line which had more crew than passengers, the big three have minimal chance of success What this incident tells me is that Covid can sneak aboard even in the most strict environments. 

[DCGuy64]

15 hours ago, hamrag said:

 

Another incident supporting the view (held by many) that a vaccine will be mandatory for boarding any cruise in the foreseeable future.

I'd say *might* be mandatory, rather than "will." Cruising in Europe and Asia is underway and they aren't requiring a vaccine, but that could change. Then again, the cruise industry depends on paying customers, and if mandatory vaccines turn too many away, they might rethink it. Lastly, how would this be policed? Who would determine what constitutes proof of a vaccination? Could someone fraudulently obtain a certificate showing one had been vaccinated? Will the cruise lines administer vaccinations as a condition of boarding? Lots of unanswered questions about how this would play out, in my opinion.

[BermudaBound2014]

Carnival just cancelled all January sailings from the USA. Apparently meeting the CDC guidelines is proving to be quite challenging. I suspect NCL will follow. Here is the list: 

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23897-carnival-cancels-almost-all-january-sailings-working-to-meet-cdc-requirements.html

 

[DarkJedi]

Sadly there is a very good chance that there will be a cat owner on any given ship who will give a false positive for the test.

 

Every single person my wife works with has tested positive with the PCR test and none have developed anti-bodies showing that all 30+ were false positives. Just like all 77 of the false positives from the NFL testing.

 

Until they lower the cycle count down to where it should have been to begin with we will continue to have a huge number of false positives.

[macandlucy]

Was the transmission rate on this sailing better or worse than the average (over States) transmission rate on land in the US?

 

I'm still looking for some evidence, any evidence, that a cruise ship environment is inherently "more risky" than any land-based environment. I read that the CDC thinks so, but they didn't say why. Without actual evidence, that's an assumption.  Where I live in Canada, the current, statistics-based Covid riskiest place to be is in someone's home: your own, a family member's or a friend's.  The most transmissions are occurring via family gatherings.

 

That's what the science tells us -- should we soon be expecting an impending ban on private domiciles? ;)