VACCINE AVAILABILITY

[mcrcruiser]

1 minute ago, Cailey53 said:

I agree--we are in our 60's and were fortunate to get the Moderna vaccine. They are already working on modifying the vaccine to address the variants and I suspect that sometime in the future will require a yearly "booster" shot similar to the flu vaccine. 

Yes each year we all will need a new vaccine injection . By then my doctors office should have the vaccine to distribute ,we hope  or back to CVS or Walgreens .yuck 

[ontheweb]

3 hours ago, KirkNC said:

Just saw that he J&J vaccine is 66% effective in preventing symptoms, 85% preventing severe symptoms.  It’s a one shot vaccine that is much easier stored and transported.  While there is some positive here, am I the only one that would wait to get one of the 95% effective vaccines?  When I apply these n umbers to cruising it doesn’t work if 15% of the passengers can get severe symptoms after getting vaccinated.

It is interesting the way expectations change. Back to before any vaccine received emergency use approval, it was thought that the threshold based on past experience for FDA approval was 50%. Now that we have had the two approved with much higher efficacy, that 66% that once would have looked good now seems low.

 

For the record, we received our first shots and are scheduled in 3 weeks for our second in 3 weeks of Moderna with 94.5%.

 

Also Kirk, since you once commented on how cold it was, the temperature here this morning was in the single digits plus the wind is blowing. Saw a prediction for today that the wind chill factor would be negative 13 degrees. Now that is COLD! And having been out earlier, I can say it is awful. DW's school even had a 2 hour delay for the reason I assume of hoping that there would be a better chance of the buses starting if they waited a few hours.

Edited January 29, 2021 by ontheweb
added last sentence

[KirkNC]

That is cold!  Here it was 24 overnight with highs today of 38.  We had a little snow that did not stick to the roads but still caused much hand wringing.

 

 

[mcrcruiser]

imo the new strains  may put cruises off for a longer time frame than most of us  thought possible or  even if  the cruise lines can survive ,a scary thought   .We just do not know how these new strains will impact society  & we don't know when the big pharma's can develop  boosters or new vaccines & then get FDA approval .Will more trials be needed ? This all takes precious time for the cruise lines  &  their money reserves

Edited January 29, 2021 by mcrcruiser

[HappyInVan]

14 minutes ago, CruiserBruce said:

The FDA could require Johnson and Johnson to do a 2 dose regiment, or a later booster shot. The two dose regiment gives 85% effectiveness.

 

What would be the point? Pfizer/Moderna (already deployed) seem to have superior symptom protection? 90-95% versus 85%. While AZ protects against infection 62% versus J&J 66%.

 

Unfortunately, protection against the South African variant is only 57%. Likely requiring a booster shot. So, same as 2-dose regime of modified Pfizer/Moderna vaccines.

 

(Everyone vax with the original formulae will require an additional booster shot for enhanced protection >75%)

 

Of course, J&J could modify its one-shot formula to include protection against SA variant. But, this would take months to get approval.

 

IMHO, J&J's most promising path is to rework their formulae to remain a single-dose vax. Hopefully, it will be available as the same time as the Pfizer/Moderna booster shot. Making J&J's candidate superior to the two-dose rivals, for the vast numbers of people not yet vaccinated by 2021.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/29/covid-vaccine-jjs-one-shot-drug-is-72percent-in-the-us-but-less-effective-elsewhere.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mcrcruiser]

Would be interesting to know what CCLs Burn Rate is per month  now  ,at present ?

[mcrcruiser]

Unfortunately, protection against the South African variant is only 57%. Likely requiring a booster shot. So, same as 2-dose regime of modified Pfizer/Moderna vaccines.

 

 This is the scary part for the cruise lines ,these new strains  ,like the one from Africa

 

[KirkNC]

I had not seen the 57% number before.  Which vaccine does that apply to?

[HAL4NOW]

4 hours ago, KirkNC said:

I had not seen the 57% number before.  Which vaccine does that apply to?

Johnson & Johnson in their South African clinical trials.

[nashkan]

We had our first shot January 6 and they called a couple ours ago and we will get our second shot February 3... We live in Lee County Florida... They have everything up at the old airport and is very well organized ....  We will be happy to have that behind us and pray they will be effective..

 

[HappyInVan]

4 hours ago, KirkNC said:

I had not seen the 57% number before.  Which vaccine does that apply to?

 

That applies to the J&J trial in South Africa. Unfortunately, the efficacy against the SA variant will be lower than 57% because while that variant is dominant in SA, it is not the only variant active in SA.

 

Similarly, Novavax reported specifically that their vax is only 50% effective against the SA variant.

 

The bad news is that the the South African variant is in North America...

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/28/south-carolina-health-officials-detect-first-known-us-covid-cases-of-more-problematic-variant-from-south-africa.html

 

And, IMO the Pfizer/Modena vax will have similar efficacy against the SA variant. I'm not a science person, so this is the way I would explain it.

 

All covid vaccines work by stimulating the body's anti-bodies to specifically attack the covid virus. The Pfizer/Moderna and Novavax/J&J technologies are 'platforms' that work in different ways to achieve this goal.

 

Regardless, the problem is that the virus has changed. The antibodies generated by the original formulae is less able to recognize the new variant. Therefore, an updated formulae is needed to teach the body to recognize the SA variant.

 

This is leading edge biological science. What does this mean for ordinary folks like us?

 

The vaccines provide important reinforcements in our war with covid19. But, we still need to get the pandemic under control regardless of what vax we are given. 

 

We need to get it under control because covid is spinning off dangerous variants faster than the progress of our best vax programs. In addition, we need to have realistic expectations about our 'warp speed' ability to vax the populations. 

 

Those are very big numbers; 5 billion people in mobile societies.

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by HappyInVan

[HAL4NOW]

My DW and a few other individuals from Skykomish were able to get vaccinated at Providence Clinic in Monroe, WA yesterday. They were on a backup list and received last minute phone calls. It seems that vaccine "luck" plays as much a part as attempting to plan.

On another note, Kaiser Permanente had a freezer malfunction and had to find over 1600 arms that needed a vaccine in a short time before the vaccine went bad. They did not lose a single dose:)

Hundreds rush to get COVID-19 vaccine in Seattle overnight after freezer failure | king5.com

[Cruise NH]

One of the things all these vaccines seem to have in common, regardless of their effective rate, is that they are able to reduce the severity of the virus.  Not ever getting the virus is the best outcome of course but a really close 2nd is getting it and having it feel like a cold or mild flu. We all get those all the time.

 

The virus will be with us forever, including all the variants, we're going to have to learn to live with it and that includes cruise lines if they ever want to sail again.  I don't think an all or nothing approach will work.  None of these vaccines are 100% effective.

 

 

[Mary229]

57 minutes ago, Cruise NH said:

One of the things all these vaccines seem to have in common, regardless of their effective rate, is that they are able to reduce the severity of the virus.  Not ever getting the virus is the best outcome of course but a really close 2nd is getting it and having it feel like a cold or mild flu. We all get those all the time.

 

The virus will be with us forever, including all the variants, we're going to have to learn to live with it and that includes cruise lines if they ever want to sail again.  I don't think an all or nothing approach will work.  None of these vaccines are 100% effective.

 

 

Exactly.   I will take 95% of a disease any day.   The flu vaccine is only 40-60% but it keeps people out of the hospital and that is how vaccine success is determined.    

[Mary229]

Texas did a big update yesterday and captured a lot of data from all counties.  We are now up to

 

3,164,150 vaccinations.   I don't know if that includes total doses, 1 and 2nd, or if that represents how many people are vaccinated.  

[CruiserBruce]

18 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

What would be the point? Pfizer/Moderna (already deployed) seem to have superior symptom protection? 90-95% versus 85%. While AZ protects against infection 62% versus J&J 66%.

 

 

 

And...in fact...the FDA is considering a two shot regiment, as J&J did include that in their Phase 3 trial.

 

Now a bit of a moot point for us, we got appointments for Feb 17 for each of us, scheduled to be Pfizer vaccines as of now.

 

[AFNavigator]

On 1/29/2021 at 10:54 AM, CruiserBruce said:

The FDA could require Johnson and Johnson to do a 2 dose regiment, or a later booster shot. The two dose regiment gives 85% effectiveness.

I don't recall J&J saying they tested a two dose series yet. 

 

J&J's Jan 29 press release states their single dose vaccine is 66% effective overall (72% in US testing, 66% in Latin America, 57% in South Africa) in "preventing moderate to severe COVID-19 and 85% effective in preventing severe disease and demonstrated complete protection against COVID-19 related hospitalization and death."  Nothing is stated in the press release about a 2-dose regiment other than they are exploring developing a booster to address the South Africa variant.

 

If I'm offered the J&J vaccine before the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, you can bet I won't turn it away.  72% efficacy is considered outstanding compared to typical flu shots or to the 50-60% rate the government was hoping these vaccines would provide just a few months ago.

[CruiserBruce]

@AFNavigator: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/johnson-and-johnson-begins-two-dose-phase-3-trial-of-covid-19-vaccine/ar-BB1b31l2

[mcrcruiser]

21 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

That applies to the J&J trial in South Africa. Unfortunately, the efficacy against the SA variant will be lower than 57% because while that variant is dominant in SA, it is not the only variant active in SA.

 

Similarly, Novavax reported specifically that their vax is only 50% effective against the SA variant.

 

The bad news is that the the South African variant is in North America...

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/28/south-carolina-health-officials-detect-first-known-us-covid-cases-of-more-problematic-variant-from-south-africa.html

 

And, IMO the Pfizer/Modena vax will have similar efficacy against the SA variant. I'm not a science person, so this is the way I would explain it.

 

All covid vaccines work by stimulating the body's anti-bodies to specifically attack the covid virus. The Pfizer/Moderna and Novavax/J&J technologies are 'platforms' that work in different ways to achieve this goal.

 

Regardless, the problem is that the virus has changed. The antibodies generated by the original formulae is less able to recognize the new variant. Therefore, an updated formulae is needed to teach the body to recognize the SA variant.

 

This is leading edge biological science. What does this mean for ordinary folks like us?

 

The vaccines provide important reinforcements in our war with covid19. But, we still need to get the pandemic under control regardless of what vax we are given. 

 

We need to get it under control because covid is spinning off dangerous variants faster than the progress of our best vax programs. In addition, we need to have realistic expectations about our 'warp speed' ability to vax the populations. 

 

Those are very big numbers; 5 billion people in mobile societies.

 

This highly contagious  strain from South Africa is already here in San Diego .We heard it on our  local TV  & our county of San Diego e-mail to us  . These variant strains of covid certainly do not bode well for cruising to resume any time in the near future imo  .We are concerned about  making a final payment in October 25th for our Hawaii cruise Feb 2nd ,2022 ,at the rate these new strains are being found to exist

[KirkNC]

1 hour ago, AFNavigator said:

 

If I'm offered the J&J vaccine before the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, you can bet I won't turn it away.  72% efficacy is considered outstanding compared to typical flu shots or to the 50-60% rate the government was hoping these vaccines would provide just a few months ago.

I don’t know, as I sit here today I think I would turn it down assuming I can get the Moderna or Pfizer within a reasonable time.  One exception would be if you can do both, the J&J first, followed by the others in a few months.  To me, there is a big difference be 66% and 95%.

[KirkNC]

3 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

This highly contagious  strain from South Africa is already here in San Diego .We heard it on our  local TV  & our county of San Diego e-mail to us  . These variant strains of covid certainly do not bode well for cruising to resume any time in the near future imo  .We are concerned about  making a final payment in October 25th for our Hawaii cruise Feb 2nd ,2022 ,at the rate these new strains are being found to exist

Yea we are on that cruise as well.  If we get cancellation bleed over into 2022,I hope HAL will extend FCC as that’s what we are using on our B2B2B.  Of course if cruises are canceled in 2022, HAL may not be around.

 

[AFNavigator]

1 hour ago, CruiserBruce said:

@AFNavigator: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/johnson-and-johnson-begins-two-dose-phase-3-trial-of-covid-19-vaccine/ar-BB1b31l2

Thanks for the update.  It will be interesting to see the efficacy of J&J's two dose trials.

 

In the mean time, getting approval now for their single dose regimen will allow tens of millions more to get vaccinated while the two dose trials are ongoing.  Millions more with 60-70% immunity is better than the same millions with no immunity.  They probably will be able to get a booster if the two dose trials are successful...maybe a tweaked South Africa-focused booster they said they may develop.

[HappyInVan]

9 hours ago, CruiserBruce said:

 

And...in fact...the FDA is considering a two shot regiment, as J&J did include that in their Phase 3 trial.

 

Now a bit of a moot point for us, we got appointments for Feb 17 for each of us, scheduled to be Pfizer vaccines as of now.

 

 

Don't give up on the J&J vax. It is cheap and easy to produce. Easy to transport and store. Plenty of potential in low income countries where the virus is absence or endemic. In high risk areas, only the best vax will do.

 

That said, it makes sense to deploy J&J in summer to protect the teens and kids. They'll be going back to school in autumn. Reserving the higher efficacy vax for the adults. There won't be enough Pfizer/Moderna vax for the adults AND the children.

 

BTW, J&J started the two dose trial in December. They won't have preliminary results till March (?). So, earliest two-dose can be deployed is May(?).  

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by HappyInVan

[ontheweb]

2 hours ago, KirkNC said:

I don’t know, as I sit here today I think I would turn it down assuming I can get the Moderna or Pfizer within a reasonable time.  One exception would be if you can do both, the J&J first, followed by the others in a few months.  To me, there is a big difference be 66% and 95%.

I believe on the Moderna information sheet it specifically says not to mix different types of vaccine. The second dose should also be Moderna.

[KirkNC]

22 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

I believe on the Moderna information sheet it specifically says not to mix different types of vaccine. The second dose should also be Moderna.

Yes but what I aim saying is taking the double Moderna vaccination after also taking the J&J.