What happens when?...

[llawrence]

As I respect the views of posters on these boards, I have a question.   In a hypothetical situation of vaccines being required for all crew and passengers.....what happens if a port requires negative testing to debark the ship and a vaccinated passenger tests positive?

The reason I am asking is that a friend had both vaccines ....waited the two weeks....went for simple hand surgery .....tested positive.....no symptoms....no illness.  In quarantine for 10 days.... I also read a congressman had a similar issue....most people who are vaccinated have no reason to get further testing without symptoms...

Would this scenario put the whole ship in jeopardy? 

[Fouremco]

No one can provide more than a guess at this point. 

[LGW59]

Just now, Fouremco said:

No one can provide more than a guess at this point. 

we could always ask the Magic 8 Ball 🤣

[Fouremco]

1 minute ago, LGW59 said:

we could always ask the Magic 8 Ball 🤣

Batteries are dead from over use!

[davekathy]

2 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

we could always ask the Magic 8 Ball 🤣

Your wish is my Magic 8 Balls command, "cannot predict now". 🤣🤣

[davekathy]

Just now, Fouremco said:

Batteries are dead from over use!

Batteries not required or over worked. You would think so now with all these other WAGs being posted.🤣

[LGW59]

1 minute ago, davekathy said:

Your wish is my Magic 8 Balls command, "cannot predict now". 🤣🤣

Mine said "check back in with me in 2022"

[paulh84]

Included is one of the first Executive Orders signed on Jan 21 was that Homeland Security and the Coast Guard had 14 days to submit a plan to implement 'appropriate health measures' at seaports. Once details of their intent emerges, I imagine it would address these situations. Until then, no one knows.

 

[Fouremco]

1 hour ago, paulh84 said:

Included is one of the first Executive Orders signed on Jan 21 was that Homeland Security and the Coast Guard had 14 days to submit a plan to implement 'appropriate health measures' at seaports. Once details of their intent emerges, I imagine it would address these situations. Until then, no one knows.

 

Of course, that only applies to US ports.

[DrKoob]

A lot of people believe that once they have both doses of the vaccine that they are immune to it. This is not the case. The vaccine does not prevent them from getting COVID just as a flu shot does not prevent you from getting the flu. It just makes it so if you do get it, it is not going to be as bad (or you won't notice it at all) as you would have without. You can still pass it on. That's why you hear so much talk about herd immunity. We need to get to the point where so many people have been vaccinated that people can infect each other with no discernible effects other than something that looks like a bad cold. Until then, mask up and socially distance.

[TeeRick]

20 hours ago, llawrence said:

As I respect the views of posters on these boards, I have a question.   In a hypothetical situation of vaccines being required for all crew and passengers.....what happens if a port requires negative testing to debark the ship and a vaccinated passenger tests positive?

The reason I am asking is that a friend had both vaccines ....waited the two weeks....went for simple hand surgery .....tested positive.....no symptoms....no illness.  In quarantine for 10 days.... I also read a congressman had a similar issue....most people who are vaccinated have no reason to get further testing without symptoms...

Would this scenario put the whole ship in jeopardy? 

This scenario is to be expected so not hypothetical at all. Note that according to all of the published phase 3 clinical data, up to 5% of the vaccinated people might become positive for virus after two doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine and have actual symptoms.  But these 5% will have mild symptoms and will not progress to severe symptoms, hospitalization or death.  Some other vaccinated people might or might not become infected but have no symptoms - still TBD. So the ships and ports will have to plan for this expected outcome for the foreseeable future.   That is why masks will be required.

Edited February 2, 2021 by TeeRick

[jagoffee]

2 hours ago, DrKoob said:

A lot of people believe that once they have both doses of the vaccine that they are immune to it. This is not the case. The vaccine does not prevent them from getting COVID just as a flu shot does not prevent you from getting the flu. It just makes it so if you do get it, it is not going to be as bad (or you won't notice it at all) as you would have without. You can still pass it on. That's why you hear so much talk about herd immunity. We need to get to the point where so many people have been vaccinated that people can infect each other with no discernible effects other than something that looks like a bad cold. Until then, mask up and socially distance.

Obviously it is good to continue to take precautions.  I am not a Doctor, but based on my limited knowledge, you have converted  a “may” still be able to pass it on to “will”.  

Edited February 2, 2021 by jagoffee

[ScubesDad]

1 hour ago, jagoffee said:

Obviously it is good to continue to take precautions.  I am not a Doctor, but based on my limited knowledge, you have converted  a “may” still be able to pass it on to “will”.  

 

I am an optimist by choice, and a pessimist by training.  In a career that often encompassed a component of risk management, the "motto" became plan for the worst hope for the best.  The vaccine is new and no one really knows what is going to happen in the real life application.  The distinction between will or may is dependent where they land on the continuum:  will = 100% of certainty, may = something less than 100%.  For argument sake lets say 98% of certainty something will happen....is that a will or a may?

 

At this point in time no one is stating anything with certainty, so I tend to consider the worst possible situation, and hold that thought until it or I am proven differently.

 

Interesting news article from a few weeks ago.  Sorry, I couldn't get it to paste in as a live link.

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/yes-you-can-still-get-infected-with-covid-19-after-being-vaccinated-here-s-why-1.5259495

 

 

 

[llawrence]

Thanks for the replies....as Drkoob said we can still get covid after the vaccine...so I guess we could still be in the position of being turned away from ports with one positive case on board...It looks like a no win situation for the cruise lines.....

[marieps]

On 2/2/2021 at 7:42 AM, DrKoob said:

You can still pass it on.

I didn't think this was fully established yet.  I understood vaccinated people who are infected (but asymptomatic thx to the vax) may shed far less virus than those infected but not vaxed.   Can you please sight the source, Doc?  I'd like to learn more.

Edited February 5, 2021 by marieps

[C-Dragons]

On 2/2/2021 at 7:42 AM, DrKoob said:

A lot of people believe that once they have both doses of the vaccine that they are immune to it. This is not the case. The vaccine does not prevent them from getting COVID just as a flu shot does not prevent you from getting the flu. It just makes it so if you do get it, it is not going to be as bad (or you won't notice it at all) as you would have without. You can still pass it on. That's why you hear so much talk about herd immunity. We need to get to the point where so many people have been vaccinated that people can infect each other with no discernible effects other than something that looks like a bad cold. Until then, mask up and socially distance.

Thank you.

[cangelmd]

On 2/1/2021 at 12:56 PM, llawrence said:

As I respect the views of posters on these boards, I have a question.   In a hypothetical situation of vaccines being required for all crew and passengers.....what happens if a port requires negative testing to debark the ship and a vaccinated passenger tests positive?

The reason I am asking is that a friend had both vaccines ....waited the two weeks....went for simple hand surgery .....tested positive.....no symptoms....no illness.  In quarantine for 10 days.... I also read a congressman had a similar issue....most people who are vaccinated have no reason to get further testing without symptoms...

Would this scenario put the whole ship in jeopardy? 

Couple of thoughts- first, as more people get vaccinated and as less virus circulates, this scenario becomes les and less likely. By the time cruising starts, if the variants can be kept n check, this should be rare. Secondly, people can stay positive for a long time, so your friend could have been infected way before the first, in between vaccinations or soon after. Persistent positivity is so common that the CDC even includes in their details about international travel a protocol for people who have a high likelihood or know they will test positive from a past infection.

[Tony UK]

On 2/1/2021 at 6:56 PM, llawrence said:

As I respect the views of posters on these boards, I have a question.   In a hypothetical situation of vaccines being required for all crew and passengers.....what happens if a port requires negative testing to debark the ship and a vaccinated passenger tests positive?

The reason I am asking is that a friend had both vaccines ....waited the two weeks....went for simple hand surgery .....tested positive.....no symptoms....no illness.  In quarantine for 10 days.... I also read a congressman had a similar issue....most people who are vaccinated have no reason to get further testing without symptoms...

Would this scenario put the whole ship in jeopardy? 

No vaccine would ever be 100%. If authorities do no plan for this type of scenario then travel and lots of other activities will be over for good! They will have quarantine facilities on board I understand. The antibodies take time to build and be effective, at least 3 weeks, longer if over 60, so maybe one lesson is get the vaccine as soon as you can before you even think about travelling.

 

On 2/1/2021 at 6:56 PM, llawrence said:

As I respect the views of posters on these boards, I have a question.   In a hypothetical situation of vaccines being required for all crew and passengers.....what happens if a port requires negative testing to debark the ship and a vaccinated passenger tests positive?

The reason I am asking is that a friend had both vaccines ....waited the two weeks....went for simple hand surgery .....tested positive.....no symptoms....no illness.  In quarantine for 10 days.... I also read a congressman had a similar issue....most people who are vaccinated have no reason to get further testing without symptoms...

Would this scenario put the whole ship in jeopardy? 

 

[llawrence]

I’ve gotten my first dose...second next week.....we have 3 cruises planned.....Nov...Feb....and May.....my concern is if cruise lines are testing and checking for covid on a regular basis....someone,vaccinated or not, will most probably test positive.... even with only one positive test...I can see ports closing again...many ports will not be as far along as other more affluent countries with the vaccine

[ipeeinthepool]

On 2/2/2021 at 9:55 AM, TeeRick said:

This scenario is to be expected so not hypothetical at all. Note that according to all of the published phase 3 clinical data, up to 5% of the vaccinated people might become positive for virus after two doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine and have actual symptoms.  But these 5% will have mild symptoms and will not progress to severe symptoms, hospitalization or death.  Some other vaccinated people might or might not become infected but have no symptoms - still TBD. So the ships and ports will have to plan for this expected outcome for the foreseeable future.   That is why masks will be required.

 

So if this is the current understanding of the vaccine performance, how does cruising ever resume?  Do the countries visited by cruise ships also need to be vaccinated to the point of achieving herd immunity?   Many of the countries visited by cruise ships have a fairly low incidence of Covid and the first cruise ship that comes into the country could be a super spreader event with hundreds or thousands of people carrying mild or asymptomatic Covid into the country.  I'm not sure I see how cruising resumes in the foreseeable future unless independent shore excursions are prohibited and sponsored shore excursions are kept in a bubble.

[TeeRick]

2 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

So if this is the current understanding of the vaccine performance, how does cruising ever resume?  Do the countries visited by cruise ships also need to be vaccinated to the point of achieving herd immunity?   Many of the countries visited by cruise ships have a fairly low incidence of Covid and the first cruise ship that comes into the country could be a super spreader event with hundreds or thousands of people carrying mild or asymptomatic Covid into the country.  I'm not sure I see how cruising resumes in the foreseeable future unless independent shore excursions are prohibited and sponsored shore excursions are kept in a bubble.

Your question goes far beyond cruising.  So I agree that the countries visited by cruise ships or any other form of tourism, or foreign travel,  will need to get enough of their population with protective immunity against the risk of severe COVID (or worse).  But that is what they need to do anyway for all aspects of life.  Cruise ship visits are not number 1 on their radar.  The current vaccines will eventually get this done.  But then we will all need to shift our focus from pandemic standards (severe COVID) to normal manageable standards (infections, mild symptoms). This virus will be with us for years.  We will eventually need to deal with it in the way we deal with influenza, colds, respiratory viruses (like RSV) and pneumonia.  The sooner we all accept that the better.

[ipeeinthepool]

6 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Your question goes far beyond cruising.  So I agree that the countries visited by cruise ships or any other form of tourism, or foreign travel,  will need to get enough of their population with protective immunity against the risk of severe COVID (or worse).  But that is what they need to do anyway for all aspects of life.  Cruise ship visits are not number 1 on their radar.  The current vaccines will eventually get this done.  But then we will all need to shift our focus from pandemic standards (severe COVID) to normal manageable standards (infections, mild symptoms). This virus will be with us for years.  We will eventually need to deal with it in the way we deal with influenza, colds, respiratory viruses (like RSV) and pneumonia.  The sooner we all accept that the better.

 

I agree that cruise ship visits aren't the number priority for any country, so what is that path to resume cruising?    I can understand how air travel to other countries can resume by testing a couple days before arrival and possibly a quarantine for a few days.  This isn't possible with a cruise ship.  If all of the cruise passengers need to be in a bubble when in port, that will dramatically change the cruise experience.  Also since many countries have restrictions on entering, I'm not sure I would travel to Europe or anywhere else for a cruise. 

 

I am struggling to see the path for any sort of normal cruising to resume anytime soon.  Not 2021, 2022 ....

[TeeRick]

39 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

I agree that cruise ship visits aren't the number priority for any country, so what is that path to resume cruising?    I can understand how air travel to other countries can resume by testing a couple days before arrival and possibly a quarantine for a few days.  This isn't possible with a cruise ship.  If all of the cruise passengers need to be in a bubble when in port, that will dramatically change the cruise experience.  Also since many countries have restrictions on entering, I'm not sure I would travel to Europe or anywhere else for a cruise. 

 

I am struggling to see the path for any sort of normal cruising to resume anytime soon.  Not 2021, 2022 ....

I hear you.  No good answer.  I am thinking that my Aug 2021 Norway cruise gets cancelled.  I actually have no other cruise planned.

[Covepointcruiser]

Anyone who has read the vaccine reports for Pfizer and Moderna, knows you can still catch the virus but you won’t get very ill.    This is the reason there is no change to social distancing rules even if you are vaccinated.   You should still wear your masks, avoid those not in your household, stay six feet apart, and continue to wash and sanitize your hands.   Since you are likely to not feel ill you are more likely to leave your home and spread it.

[llawrence]

Adding a bit to this topic....does anyone else think that maybe the Cruise lines are not being realistic on possible start dates....Because we are frequent cruises...Celebrity is constantly wanting us to book more cruises...just got a email about new 2021 Caribbean itineraries.  We already have thousands tied up in multi cancelled and rebooked cruises. I wonder if the cruise lines are being upfront with their consumers.  If the majority of posters feel pretty certain that cruising startup is a ways off....Celebrity should also know that..will it come to a point where celebrity cannot meet its financial obligations to its customers