vaccine required?

[Redwing55]

16 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

Cruise ships are petrie dishes .Even the thought of being a captive  on a ship is very very unappealing ,Thus ,we would never cruise unless  every body has been vaccinated on the ship . There is the possibilty of variants as well ;but ,at least no one dies that is vaccinated

I truly detest that term.  Aren't hotels that way?  Resorts? Planes? Disneyworld?  ANY public place where more than one person congregates?   If we're all tested, we're likely safer on a ship than almost any other location.  There will be a finite and consistent number or people on the ship.  Just think of the revolving door at a resort?  So, feel free to be as cautious as you prefer, but for me, that label is pretty inaccurate.

[waltd]

50 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

Cruise ships are petrie dishes .Even the thought of being a captive  on a ship is very very unappealing ,Thus ,we would never cruise unless  every body has been vaccinated on the ship . There is the possibilty of variants as well ;but ,at least no one dies that is vaccinated

 

Edited April 16, 2021 by waltd

[AZjohn]

17 hours ago, seapals2 said:

 If a vaccine is 85 to 90% efficient does that mean 10 to 15 people in a hundred are likely to get infected.  Would they show symptoms.  

No, If Moderna and Pfizer say they they have a efficacy of 95% that means that 95% of people that were vaccinated will never feel any symptoms if they catch Covid. The other 5% may feel slight symptoms if they got Covid.

 

For the US, all three vaccines that received the emergency approved use will have 100% protection from death of Covid ( this is from their 3 phase trial tests). This the most important fact and what the vaccines were intentionally designed for. 
 

I’m not going to get into mutations and other recent data that is so far inconclusive (I think there has been one or two deaths from J&J so far but again; no confirmed data if vaccine caused the death yet).

 

We are all learning on the fly how long the vaccines protect 🙂

[AZjohn]

17 hours ago, seapals2 said:

 If a vaccine is 85 to 90% efficient does that mean 10 to 15 people in a hundred are likely to get infected.  Would they show symptoms.  

Duplicate 

Edited April 17, 2021 by AZjohn

[nocl]

16 minutes ago, AZjohn said:

No, If Moderna and Pfizer say they they have a efficacy of 95% that means that 95% of people that were vaccinated will never feel any symptoms if they catch Covid. The other 5% may feel slight symptoms if they got Covid.

 

For the US, all three vaccines that received the emergency approved use will have 100% protection from death of Covid ( this is from their 3 phase trial tests). This the most important fact and what the vaccines were intentionally designed for. 
 

I’m not going to get into mutations and other recent data that is so far inconclusive (I think there has been one or two deaths from J&J so far but again; no confirmed data if vaccine caused the death yet).

 

We are all learning on the fly how long the vaccines protect 🙂

No that is not what efficacy means.  Efficacy is a measurement of a controlled study at a given point of time.  It is the measurement between those in the untreated are of the study that met the criteria as being infected, and those in the treated arm that did.  Basically the definition for efficacy is 

(# untreated arm - # treated arm)/# untreated arm = efficacy.

 

The efficacy is an indication of how a drug might actually work, but is only valid in the context of the study and the point in time at which it was run.

 

Effectiveness is how it works in real world conditions.  While the original clinical study only looked at symptomatic illness, there have since been other real world studies that have looked at asymptomatic, transmission, as well as symptomatic illness. From that data the number for illness prevention is very similar to prevention of symptomatic illness reported in the clinical trials

 

With that said the data from the trial only indicated the ratio of those showing symptoms between the two arms.  asymptomatic illness was not tested for so it certainly does not support your statement that 95% of people that were vaccinated will never feel any symptoms if they catch Covid. The other 5% may feel slight symptoms if they got Covid.

 

The real world data shows that the vaccine reduces asymptomatic infection by 94%, symptomatic infection by 95% and mortality by 98%

 

So if you take the numbers for a non-vaccinated population.  For demonstration purposes lets use an infected population of 1000 with 60% symptomatic and 40% asymptomatic then based upon the Israeli data if the same group went through the same circumstance that resulted in them getting infected, but this time they were vaccinated you would expect 30 symptomatic cases and 24 asymptomatic cases, with a similar reduction in transmission.  

 

As far as mortality if we start with the CDC's estimated mortality number of .65%, the 90% reduction would result in a new mortality rate of .013%.  Or to put it another way if everyone in the US had been vaccinated at the start of the pandemic the total death toll in the US would not have been 550,000, but instead no more than 11,000.  Probably a lot fewer because the infection would not have spread.

 

The above data was from an Israeli study using Pfizer vaccine against the original strain and the B.117 variant, but I would expect Moderna to have similar results.

 

There is not any similar data yet for B.1.351.  Though the Pfizer effectiveness is expected to be lower based upon the number of infections by strain in another Israeli study.

 

NIH is doing a large study looking at asymptomatic illness and transmission that should complete in August and hopefully it will confirm the Israeli data.

[D C]

4 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

Cruise ships are petrie dishes .Even the thought of being a captive  on a ship is very very unappealing ,Thus ,we would never cruise unless  every body has been vaccinated on the ship . There is the possibilty of variants as well ;but ,at least no one dies that is vaccinated

I've heard that time and again, but in what sense is that true? 

 

Cruise ships are:

1) floating hotels with rooms cleaned daily, likely more thoroughly than any hotel room 

2) floating restaurants that score better marks than most land-based restaurants 

3) outdoor 'lounges' where people lay in the sun and enjoy various beverages 

4) floating theatres where customers assemble for about an hour to watch a stage show (not a particularly long performance compared to land-based shows) 

 

Where does the petry dish part come in? I've never understood that reference, having been on numerous ships. 

[caribill]

5 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

Cruise ships are petrie dishes .Even the thought of being a captive  on a ship is very very unappealing ,Thus ,we would never cruise unless  every body has been vaccinated on the ship . There is the possibilty of variants as well ;but ,at least no one dies that is vaccinated

 

In the USA where 77 million people have been fully vaccinated, there have been 5800 known cases of Covid-19 in fully vaccinated people 400 of whom have been hospitalized. Some of them did die from Covid-19, but I do not know the number.

[caribill]

5 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

Cruise ships are petrie dishes .Even the thought of being a captive  on a ship is very very unappealing ,Thus ,we would never cruise unless  every body has been vaccinated on the ship . There is the possibilty of variants as well ;but ,at least no one dies that is vaccinated

 

In the USA where 77 million people have been fully vaccinated, there have been 5800 known cases of Covid-19 in fully vaccinated people 400 of whom have been hospitalized. 74 did die.

 

74 is a very, very small number compared to 77 million, but some fully vaccinated people still die from Covid-19.

[caribill]

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[caribill]

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[nocl]

1 hour ago, D C said:

I've heard that time and again, but in what sense is that true? 

 

Cruise ships are:

1) floating hotels with rooms cleaned daily, likely more thoroughly than any hotel room 

2) floating restaurants that score better marks than most land-based restaurants 

3) outdoor 'lounges' where people lay in the sun and enjoy various beverages 

4) floating theatres where customers assemble for about an hour to watch a stage show (not a particularly long performance compared to land-based shows) 

 

Where does the petry dish part come in? I've never understood that reference, having been on numerous ships. 

I would not call it a petri dish more of an air borne blender.

 

The problem with cruise ships, especially with airborne transmission according to some papers I have read is:

 

1. Density - not only of passengers but especially of crew.  Cruise ship density is higher than just about any other place including prisons, nursing homes, etc.

 

2. The amount of inside common space vs the number of people inside that space - Lots of people occupying relatively small inside common spaces

 

3. The amount of time spent in common inside spaces including dining rooms, lounges and theaters. Many of the same activities limited on land

 

4. Air exchanges - With many of the inside space the air flow is across the room  will carry virus among people in the same room or space.  You can inject totally clean air but if that air picks up virus from one person to another.  You can reduce this by increase the air exchanges.  An air plane for example completed changes the air every 5 minutes and used a ceiling to floor flow pattern that pull virus down away from faces.  Supposedly they have made changes to increase the air exchange rate in public spaces to be similar to airliners, but probably not improved the air flow patterns.

 

6. The number of contacts with crew and passengers.  Think about the cruise you have been on and the number of different people you come in contact with for both short duration (passing in a hall way, standing watching a demo or some other activity, entering leaving a venue. Embarkation, disembarkation, going on excursions, etc.  Especially when you consider the social nature of cruising 

 

7. Now combine all of that in for a length of time where an illness can incubate.  It is not uncommon to be on cruises where you get quick incubation upper respiratory infections start showing  3 or 4 days into a cruise.  With Covid the worst situations involved either an infection that started on a previous cruise and then blossomed during the following cruise (Hurtigruten is a good example with the infection becoming widespread on the second 7 day cruise after the infection started on the 1st cruise) or during a long duration cruise.  Time to incubated and then get passed on during the constant mixing of normal cruise life.

 

If you are interested in some of the studies I can post some links.

 

The best way to protect cruise ships is to keep it off of the ships.

Edited April 17, 2021 by nocl

[AZjohn]

1 hour ago, nocl said:

The real world data shows that the vaccine reduces asymptomatic infection by 94%, symptomatic infection by 95% and mortality by 98%

Can you please provide a link with this data?
Thanks

[PrincessLuver]

1 hour ago, nocl said:

I would not call it a petri dish more of an air borne blender.

 

The problem with cruise ships, especially with airborne transmission according to some papers I have read is:

 

1. Density - not only of passengers but especially of crew.  Cruise ship density is higher than just about any other place including prisons, nursing homes, etc.

 

2. The amount of inside common space vs the number of people inside that space - Lots of people occupying relatively small inside common spaces

 

3. The amount of time spent in common inside spaces including dining rooms, lounges and theaters. Many of the same activities limited on land

 

4. Air exchanges - With many of the inside space the air flow is across the room  will carry virus among people in the same room or space.  You can inject totally clean air but if that air picks up virus from one person to another.  You can reduce this by increase the air exchanges.  An air plane for example completed changes the air every 5 minutes and used a ceiling to floor flow pattern that pull virus down away from faces.  Supposedly they have made changes to increase the air exchange rate in public spaces to be similar to airliners, but probably not improved the air flow patterns.

 

6. The number of contacts with crew and passengers.  Think about the cruise you have been on and the number of different people you come in contact with for both short duration (passing in a hall way, standing watching a demo or some other activity, entering leaving a venue. Embarkation, disembarkation, going on excursions, etc.  Especially when you consider the social nature of cruising 

 

7. Now combine all of that in for a length of time where an illness can incubate.  It is not uncommon to be on cruises where you get quick incubation upper respiratory infections start showing  3 or 4 days into a cruise.  With Covid the worst situations involved either an infection that started on a previous cruise and then blossomed during the following cruise (Hurtigruten is a good example with the infection becoming widespread on the second 7 day cruise after the infection started on the 1st cruise) or during a long duration cruise.  Time to incubated and then get passed on during the constant mixing of normal cruise life.

 

If you are interested in some of the studies I can post some links.

 

The best way to protect cruise ships is to keep it off of the ships.

Agree.....nothing really sanitary about a cruise ship.....it is people on top of people and viruses spread really fast on cruise ships compared to other forms of travel...

[caribill]

The chief executive officers of Norwegian Cruise Line, Carnival and Royal Caribbean made a direct appeal to replace the government's phased-in approach to sailings from U.S. ports in a meeting this week with the White House COVID response team, sources tell CNBC.

 

The CEOs made the case that cruises could restart by requiring vaccinations for passengers could sail safely.

[Roberto256]

6 hours ago, nocl said:

2. The amount of inside common space vs the number of people inside that space - Lots of people occupying relatively small inside common spaces

 

In the old days, this was called 'passenger space ratio'.

 

When there were things called 'books', like "Berlitz Guide to Cruising", the number would be included along with other ship information.

 

It gave you an idea of how crowded a ship might feel.

 

[D C]

11 hours ago, caribill said:

 

In the USA where 77 million people have been fully vaccinated, there have been 5800 known cases of Covid-19 in fully vaccinated people 400 of whom have been hospitalized. 74 did die.

 

74 is a very, very small number compared to 77 million, but some fully vaccinated people still die from Covid-19.

74 is a statistically insignificant number out of 77 million.  "in the most exceptionally rare cases that are almost unheard of" would be a fair qualifier.   Saying nobody dies of covid after vaccination isn't very far off.   It would be interesting to know what was up with that handful of people. Had to be something else going on with them medically. 

[tcdcruiser]

12 hours ago, nocl said:

No that is not what efficacy means.  Efficacy is a measurement of a controlled study at a given point of time.  It is the measurement between those in the untreated are of the study that met the criteria as being infected, and those in the treated arm that did.  Basically the definition for efficacy is 

(# untreated arm - # treated arm)/# untreated arm = efficacy.

 

The efficacy is an indication of how a drug might actually work, but is only valid in the context of the study and the point in time at which it was run.

 

Effectiveness is how it works in real world conditions.  While the original clinical study only looked at symptomatic illness, there have since been other real world studies that have looked at asymptomatic, transmission, as well as symptomatic illness. From that data the number for illness prevention is very similar to prevention of symptomatic illness reported in the clinical trials

 

With that said the data from the trial only indicated the ratio of those showing symptoms between the two arms.  asymptomatic illness was not tested for so it certainly does not support your statement that 95% of people that were vaccinated will never feel any symptoms if they catch Covid. The other 5% may feel slight symptoms if they got Covid.

 

The real world data shows that the vaccine reduces asymptomatic infection by 94%, symptomatic infection by 95% and mortality by 98%

 

So if you take the numbers for a non-vaccinated population.  For demonstration purposes lets use an infected population of 1000 with 60% symptomatic and 40% asymptomatic then based upon the Israeli data if the same group went through the same circumstance that resulted in them getting infected, but this time they were vaccinated you would expect 30 symptomatic cases and 24 asymptomatic cases, with a similar reduction in transmission.  

 

As far as mortality if we start with the CDC's estimated mortality number of .65%, the 90% reduction would result in a new mortality rate of .013%.  Or to put it another way if everyone in the US had been vaccinated at the start of the pandemic the total death toll in the US would not have been 550,000, but instead no more than 11,000.  Probably a lot fewer because the infection would not have spread.

 

The above data was from an Israeli study using Pfizer vaccine against the original strain and the B.117 variant, but I would expect Moderna to have similar results.

 

There is not any similar data yet for B.1.351.  Though the Pfizer effectiveness is expected to be lower based upon the number of infections by strain in another Israeli study.

 

NIH is doing a large study looking at asymptomatic illness and transmission that should complete in August and hopefully it will confirm the Israeli data.

NOCAL

 

This is thoughtful and well written.  Thank you. 

[voljeep]

My wife and I just had ( and by just I mean in the last 30 minutes ) about whether she/we would cruise if vaccines are NOT required for all PASSENGERS ... the verdict was "undecided" at this point - still waiting on the protocols and procedures about what happens if there is an outbreak on the ship in regards to being able to homeport, get off ship and return home without quarantine.

Edited April 17, 2021 by voljeep

[c-boy]

2 hours ago, D C said:

74 is a statistically insignificant number out of 77 million.  "in the most exceptionally rare cases that are almost unheard of" would be a fair qualifier.   Saying nobody dies of covid after vaccination isn't very far off.   It would be interesting to know what was up with that handful of people. Had to be something else going on with them medically. 

and there in lies the crux of the problem. 

[rabin1]

12 hours ago, nocl said:

I would not call it a petri dish more of an air borne blender.

 

The problem with cruise ships, especially with airborne transmission according to some papers I have read is:

 

1. Density - not only of passengers but especially of crew.  Cruise ship density is higher than just about any other place including prisons, nursing homes, etc.

 

2. The amount of inside common space vs the number of people inside that space - Lots of people occupying relatively small inside common spaces

 

3. The amount of time spent in common inside spaces including dining rooms, lounges and theaters. Many of the same activities limited on land

 

4. Air exchanges - With many of the inside space the air flow is across the room  will carry virus among people in the same room or space.  You can inject totally clean air but if that air picks up virus from one person to another.  You can reduce this by increase the air exchanges.  An air plane for example completed changes the air every 5 minutes and used a ceiling to floor flow pattern that pull virus down away from faces.  Supposedly they have made changes to increase the air exchange rate in public spaces to be similar to airliners, but probably not improved the air flow patterns.

 

6. The number of contacts with crew and passengers.  Think about the cruise you have been on and the number of different people you come in contact with for both short duration (passing in a hall way, standing watching a demo or some other activity, entering leaving a venue. Embarkation, disembarkation, going on excursions, etc.  Especially when you consider the social nature of cruising 

 

7. Now combine all of that in for a length of time where an illness can incubate.  It is not uncommon to be on cruises where you get quick incubation upper respiratory infections start showing  3 or 4 days into a cruise.  With Covid the worst situations involved either an infection that started on a previous cruise and then blossomed during the following cruise (Hurtigruten is a good example with the infection becoming widespread on the second 7 day cruise after the infection started on the 1st cruise) or during a long duration cruise.  Time to incubated and then get passed on during the constant mixing of normal cruise life.

 

If you are interested in some of the studies I can post some links.

 

The best way to protect cruise ships is to keep it off of the ships.

Would age have anything to do with this? I know when the vaccines started our Governor choose to give the vaccines to seniors first. Please don't bash DeSantis it is not about him my statement. We have a lot more seniors and they seem to be in the majority of those that died. I am NOT saying others don't die. I am asking this because you are one of the few on this site that seems to give good info.

Thanks

Kathy

[rabin1]

49 minutes ago, voljeep said:

My wife and I just had ( and by just I mean in the last 30 minutes ) about whether she/we would cruise if vaccines are NOT required for all PASSENGERS ... the verdict was "undecided" at this point - still waiting on the protocols and procedures about what happens if there is an outbreak on the ship in regards to being able to homeport, get off ship and return home without quarantine.

I don't really remember but one of the things I THINK was in the list of the things the CDC gave to the cruise lines in October was that they had to have a plan as to how to isolate any cases of the covid with a separate section. Does anyone remember?

Kathy

[voljeep]

2 minutes ago, rabin1 said:

I don't really remember but one of the things I THINK was in the list of the things the CDC gave to the cruise lines in October was that they had to have a plan as to how to isolate any cases of the covid with a separate section. Does anyone remember?

Kathy

It was ... that's what we are waiting on

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

Reading what the cruise lines have done, that is one of the things they have already done. Quarantine cabins. Extra medical staff also. You can go to most any cruise lines web site and read what they have done to the ships.

[Steelers36]

4 hours ago, D C said:

74 is a statistically insignificant number out of 77 million.  "in the most exceptionally rare cases that are almost unheard of" would be a fair qualifier.   Saying nobody dies of covid after vaccination isn't very far off.   It would be interesting to know what was up with that handful of people. Had to be something else going on with them medically. 

Also, did the infection occur within two weeks of the shot.  It is supposed to take a good two weeks for immunity to build up.  Perhaps some of that very miniscule number already had Covid-19 virus when they got vaccinated.

[K.T.B.]

On 4/16/2021 at 12:14 PM, Host CJSKIDS said:

A very gentle reminder that the thread is about vaccines being required to cruise so let’s steer the thread back to the topic of the vaccine as it pertains to cruising!  

 

And let’s hope we get some positive news & guidance soon from the CDC so we can all start talking about the things we all love, actually cruising!

 

 

 

Re: the part I bolded.

 

From your lips to God's ear!  I sooooo want to go on my upcoming cruise.  It's a bucket list cruise for me.