Fuel prices up? Cruise fares up?

[Matco]

I just had a friend reach out and ask if they should book their cruise now or wait for a sale and run the risk of the prices going up because of the skyrocketing fuel prices.. got me thinking if that's eventually going to happen? Don't cruise lines have contracts with fuel suppliers and buy fuel like months in advance?  

[mz-s]

If you book now and prices go up you're protected because you're already booked. If prices go down you can always file a price protection claim. You can't really lose.

 

There has been some chatter on here that Carnival may institute fuel surcharges of up to $9pppd, but no evidence of that happening yet. But if they did they could do it at any time even after your final payment date, so there's no way to protect against it.

[Matco]

That's what I told them, If you are worried about it book now with a deposit then you can always refare if its cheaper as long as its before final payment. 

[firefly333]

In sept I get a 25% off solo discount, that's why I am pushing rcl now so hard in a row. My plan sounded great, once I got my discount I would book a couple of more expensive cruises. 

 

Everything here is going up and imo I'm thinking help, oil, food all going up and demand is pent up. People getting rid of masks march 1, demand is up. Everything to me points to prices going up. 

 

Last week I caved, worried about prices going up. Lots of work to reprice for my ta. I booked vision OTS, a 11 day more expensive than usual for me cruise. Oasis spring break higher than I want to pay. Added harmony though more of a bargain, more chance it will go up.

 

My grandeur may 18 is almost sold out. ..demand is up now with covid under control.

 

If I were your friend I'd book now. Early saver to price match. I cant see prices dropping. No signs I see that is where we are going.

[DrSea]

1 hour ago, mz-s said:

If you book now and prices go up you're protected because you're already booked. If prices go down you can always file a price protection claim. You can't really lose.

 

There has been some chatter on here that Carnival may institute fuel surcharges of up to $9pppd, but no evidence of that happening yet. But if they did they could do it at any time even after your final payment date, so there's no way to protect against it.

If that happens, I will NOT be sailing with any cruise line. I can wait it out. I need to lose some weight too from cruising so much, lol. 

[DrSea]

1 hour ago, Matco said:

That's what I told them, If you are worried about it book now with a deposit then you can always refare if its cheaper as long as its before final payment. 

To the OP, who knows? Tell your friend to book what they can afford. CCL has been having fire sales recently. I booked an inside for $55 for a sailabration cruise. Literally, the next day it dropped to $20. 

 

With the "conflict", the economy may crash and prices may plummet. Who knows?

[mz-s]

17 minutes ago, DrSea said:

If that happens, I will NOT be sailing with any cruise line. I can wait it out. I need to lose some weight too from cruising so much, lol. 

 

I need to stress that the chatter here has been mere speculation, nothing even hinting that Carnival is considering instituting fuel surcharges.

[DrSea]

1 minute ago, mz-s said:

 

I need to stress that the chatter here has been mere speculation, nothing even hinting that Carnival is considering instituting fuel surcharges.

I understand. If it does happen, I can take a break. I have done 6 cruises in the last 3.5 months. I can wait it out. I did for 2 years already. 

[cruisingguy007]

1 hour ago, mz-s said:

If you book now and prices go up you're protected because you're already booked. If prices go down you can always file a price protection claim. You can't really lose.

 

There has been some chatter on here that Carnival may institute fuel surcharges of up to $9pppd, but no evidence of that happening yet. But if they did they could do it at any time even after your final payment date, so there's no way to protect against it.

 

That would be a mistake, people would just lower their autograts to offset it. Better to bake it in to new bookings by raising fares $63 pp for a 7-day. You can take it away or add it back easier as well.  

[mz-s]

6 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

That would be a mistake, people would just lower their autograts to offset it. Better to bake it in to new bookings by raising fares $63 pp for a 7-day. You can take it away or add it back easier as well.  

 

The problem with baking gratuities, fuel surcharges, port fees, etc., into fares is it raises the number people see on the website when browsing and comparing against other lines.

[cruisingguy007]

7 minutes ago, mz-s said:

 

The problem with baking gratuities, fuel surcharges, port fees, etc., into fares is it raises the number people see on the website when browsing and comparing against other lines.

 

They aren't fooling anyone, plus they can use it as dig against others being deceptive. First to get there wins. Call "honest all in pricing" or some jazz like that. I think folks would appreciate it and the others would copy. People don't really like the games and gotchas. It's the same reason people hate buying cars from dealerships. Games and gotchas are annoying as hell and most regard it as underhanded.   

[vwrestler171]

I saw an article that said Carnival has hedged their fuel prices through 2022 and halfway through 2023, so they might be fine for a while.  Not sure on the other lines.

[mz-s]

16 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

They aren't fooling anyone, plus they can use it as dig against others being deceptive. First to get there wins. Call "honest all in pricing" or some jazz like that. I think folks would appreciate it and the others would copy. People don't really like the games and gotchas. It's the same reason people hate buying cars from dealerships. Games and gotchas are annoying as hell and most regard it as underhanded.   

 

There is a lot of research that goes into pricing and all this sounds good at face value, but the fact of the matter is people love the thrill of the hunt and this doesn't work in a real competitive industry. Even on here, everyone is touting their $50 cruises - but nobody quotes the full price of the cruise fare ($50) plus port fees and taxes, and gratuities. Everyone's quoting the big $50 they see on the booking engine, not the bottom-line price you don't see until you actually get ready to book.

 

People may hate buying from dealerships but they still do because if you go to a no-haggle joint like Carmax you're going to pay more.

[DrSea]

37 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

They aren't fooling anyone, plus they can use it as dig against others being deceptive. First to get there wins. Call "honest all in pricing" or some jazz like that. I think folks would appreciate it and the others would copy. People don't really like the games and gotchas. It's the same reason people hate buying cars from dealerships. Games and gotchas are annoying as hell and most regard it as underhanded.   

 

17 minutes ago, mz-s said:

 

There is a lot of research that goes into pricing and all this sounds good at face value, but the fact of the matter is people love the thrill of the hunt and this doesn't work in a real competitive industry. Even on here, everyone is touting their $50 cruises - but nobody quotes the full price of the cruise fare ($50) plus port fees and taxes, and gratuities. Everyone's quoting the big $50 they see on the booking engine, not the bottom-line price you don't see until you actually get ready to book.

 

People may hate buying from dealerships but they still do because if you go to a no-haggle joint like Carmax you're going to pay more.

I think it depends on the market segment that they are going after. A lot of the luxury lines have an all included pricing. It works well for them. I don't think it would work well for carnival.

 

My friend, who is very price conscious, will book a cruise with me on carnival and budget x amount for the cruise fare and port taxes and fees. They will eventually budget in other things like gratuities and onboard expenses later because literally every single dollar that they make is budgeted and accounted for. It's a different mind set. He treat these 2 expenditures almost like separate things even though it really isn't. But he lives pay check to pay check. Like I said, it's just a different mind set and lifestyle. 

[cruisingguy007]

4 minutes ago, DrSea said:

 

I think it depends on the market segment that they are going after. A lot of the luxury lines have an all included pricing. It works well for them. I don't think it would work well for carnival.

 

My friend, who is very price conscious, will book a cruise with me on carnival and budget x amount for the cruise fare and port taxes and fees. They will eventually budget in other things like gratuities and onboard expenses later because literally every single dollar that they make is budgeted and accounted for. It's a different mind set. He treat these 2 expenditures almost like separate things even though it really isn't. But he lives pay check to pay check. Like I said, it's just a different mind set and lifestyle. 

 

Fair point. And a good point. 

[firefly333]

Unvaccinated no longer need bubble tours, one more problem disappeared today. As problems disappear, demand will rise. Sure some will sit it out, others will pay up to a certain pt. 

 

If everything else in life is going up why would people think ...everything but cruise fares.  

[Illbcruzn4life]

2 hours ago, mz-s said:

 

The problem with baking gratuities, fuel surcharges, port fees, etc., into fares is it raises the number people see on the website when browsing and comparing against other lines.

They’d also need to raise it more than $63 because if they added it into the price wouldn’t it be commissionable where they’d have to pay a TA part of it.

[Itried4498]

Deep discounting has been extended into June.  How can you raise prices, when you have to drop them to stimulate demand to begin with?

[ontheweb]

9 hours ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

They’d also need to raise it more than $63 because if they added it into the price wouldn’t it be commissionable where they’d have to pay a TA part of it.

I don't think so. I think they presently count part of the fare as noncommissionable. But, I could be wrong.

[rjrice1]

Just wondering with gas going up and up everyday....  will cruise lines start a surcharge ?  

Please no flaming?  It is a serious question.  

thank you 

[ColeThornton]

Similar thread just a few lines down from this.

 

 

[elklemi]

I remember fuel surcharges and on one cruise I was on it was applied, this was on Carnival.  I believe my first cruise was 2007 so sometime after that.  Going out of Tampa in 11 days so should be ok for this one but if fuel continues to increase would not surprise me that it comes back.

[Joanne G.]

I remember it some time ago, but it would have been on either NCL or HAL, as those were the lines we were sailing at the time.  I remember sending a check for something like $20 or $40 for the fuel surcharge, but then the check was never cashed, and eventually I voided it.  

 

Others have recently reported that it is in the small print that they can impose fuel surcharges in certain situations any time, including after final payment.   So, we shouldn't be surprised if it happens.  

[Itried4498]

5 hours ago, Joanne G. said:

I remember it some time ago, but it would have been on either NCL or HAL, as those were the lines we were sailing at the time.  I remember sending a check for something like $20 or $40 for the fuel surcharge, but then the check was never cashed, and eventually I voided it.  

 

Others have recently reported that it is in the small print that they can impose fuel surcharges in certain situations any time, including after final payment.   So, we shouldn't be surprised if it happens.  

 

Yes, the fine print reads that if oil goes above $65 - $70 per barrel, the cruise line can impose a fuel surcharge, even after final payment has been made.

 

That said, you have to recognize that "fuel surcharges" are de facto price increases.  When the price of oil crashed during the Great Recession, most companies that had imposed fuel surcharges, rolled them into their base rates.  This is a key point because cruise fares continue to fall.  Carnival extended its deep discounting (free or heavily discounted rooms to most of its members) into June, and prices for peak summer remain well below historical norms.  They're not the only ones -- Princess just slashed the prices of most of its cruises over peak summer.

 

Put simply, fuel surcharges are simply a way to raise prices, and if people aren't willing to pay the prices you're charging at the moment anyway, it's going to cause a steep drop in demand.  The average person looks at cost in totality -- e.g. the final fare including all taxes and fees (mandatory or not) -- before making a purchase decision.  

 

In its last earnings call, Carnival projected it'd eek out a small profit this year, but overall demand would be soft; by next spring, it projected record demand and potentially record profits for the year.  If anything, the increase in fuel will push it into a loss.  The bigger question is, could continuing soft demand and record fuel prices lead to additional fleet exits? 

 

It's not just pain at the pump -- the increase in fuel will ultimately cause already swelling prices, to swell even larger.  Travel is the largest discretionary spending, so it's inevitable that as the cost of living climbs much faster than our paychecks, that many of us will cut back on travel spending.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Itried4498

[ray98]

Not going to happen.  Fuel surcharges popped up in a time where cruises were sailing full.  They tacked it on because they had a string customer base that would pay it.  We are now in a time where they are giving cruises away to fill ships.  Adding surcharges on that contradicts that marketing plan.