Carnival Corporation Axing Three Ships

[tring]

44 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Back in 2019, the plan had been for 2020-2024 capacity to increase by about 20% based on demand models. This was based on new ships brining 30%+ new capacity plus a few smaller ships leaving the fleet and reducing capacity by circa 10%.
 

Covid hit, the result… new total demand forecasts now suggest 2%-5%. This gave Carnival a problem and an opportunity.

 

Cancelling new builds wasn’t the answer. The big boys were under political pressure to go greener. Some steps could be taken with larger ships but small ships didn’t have the space to accommodate the equipment.
 

A sudden buoyant market opened up for second hand ships with smaller operators keen to upgrade and Carnival keen to offload smaller, dirtier, less profitable ships. With these three disposals, Carnival are up to 22 disposals in three years. Some of these would have happened naturally but likely only 6-7.

 

Carnival had a fleet of about 105 ships, were due to have a fleet of circa 120 ships by 2024 but will end up with around 100. However their capacity will still be around 5% higher.

 

As a business, the smaller, newer, greener fleet has lower maintenance and operating costs. New build ship costs are spread over their life therefore don’t impact profit as much as you’d expect.

 

There is another side to this discussion and that’s internal movements.

CCL has seen a quick recovery due to its domestic US focus. Costa has struggled due to the rise of MSC in Europe and the prolonged closure of the China market. Therefore ship transfers are logical. What were to be temporary transfers look like becoming permanent as they are now formally being renamed.

 

Princess has struggled outside of US & U.K. but they’ve been assisted by two of their ships transferring to P&O Australia. Holland America had lost four smaller ships in place of one new ship therefore could ride the recovery.

 

Aida is a very holiday club style operation but has rebounded well for the domestic German market. Seabourn and Cunard have higher price points so could weather a slower recovery. Both were due new ships late enough in the recovery curved to not need disposals.

 

This leaves P&O UK. I believe, as we enter 2023, that the fleet is the size it was always intended to be. I’ve said for some time, I expected Oceana to leave the fleet after Arvia’s arrival. Arvia was originally due May 2022, so that suggested Oceana gone by now. For me, there was an outside hope of her going adults only but only if overall demand kept rocketing.

 

Of course, the ultimate hope for the business is demand increases quicker than expected. This pushes prices up as more people want the same fixed number of cabins.

 

As to the future… ships will continue to leave as part of natural evolution of cruise ships. Generally 30 years is the estimated plan. With nothing in the order books past 2026, Carnival will be hoping for government support to incentivise/reduce the cost of shipbuilding. The bank rate movements across the world won’t help with that however what impact that has on the Italian & German export finance markets is unclear.

 

The next big move is to see if Princess has excess capacity post their two new Sphere class ships. Will this give the P&Os a Grand or Royal class ship, will this mark the end of Aurora or Arcadia, or has Covid given them a lease of life into the 2030s?

 

Also, can I please ask how the market demand is for Aurora/Arcadia compared to the demand for the P&O larger ships post covid.  They do, after all, have a very different cruise style and clientele. The prices are higher for those ships, as is well known, (and will need to be as you have previously explained), so presumably potential pax for those ships will have to be prepared to pay that premium to keep those ships afloat. 

 

I do believe P&O could loose a number of those passengers without the mid sized ships, but on a business front, is that a factor which will be taken into account?

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by tring

[wowzz]

44 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Carnival will be hoping for government support to incentivise/reduce the cost of shipbuilding.

Given the "interesting" position regards paying taxation by the likes of Celebrity and Carnival, what reason would any government have in suppporting the building of new cruise ships ?

[tring]

12 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

I don’t believe that either of those are missing because of cutbacks/fuel economy or being too big.

 

A problem for the next two/three years is port availability of LNG. Once resolved some of the restrictions, such as Iona and Arvia having to cross the Atlantic via Tenerife will be resolved. The Tenerife route is also linger therefore slower therefore less port days.

 

Ventura is doing the same 35 night itineraries in both 23/24, and the following year, though only the 24/25 versions have a port missing without a replacement port (as I mentioned at the end of my quoted post).

 

I can see LNG will cause problems in the short time for the bigger ships though.

 

 

[yorkshirephil]

16 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

 

A problem for the next two/three years is port availability of LNG. Once resolved some of the restrictions, such as Iona and Arvia having to cross the Atlantic via Tenerife will be resolved. The Tenerife route is also linger therefore slower therefore less port days.

That is not a problem for us, after many trans Atlantic cruises I would much prefer the Tenerife route to the more northerly Azores with the cooler weather and swells from the north Atlantic, hence us booking Iona as opposed to Ventura in 2025, less port days being fine for us. When we booked in Nov on our Arcadia round trip there seemed to be a limited choice of cabins on Iona which was a little surprising for a larger ship especially as Ventura is also doing two Caribbean round trips in Jan/Feb. I can assume that there are plenty of regulars who have a similar viewpoint to us, especially as lots of people didn't get off Arcadia in the Caribbean ports.

[tring]

20 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Given the "interesting" position regards paying taxation by the likes of Celebrity and Carnival, what reason would any government have in suppporting the building of new cruise ships ?

 

I think the comment was regards the German or Italian govs perhaps supporting their ship building industry, as that is where the ships have traditionally been built. 

 

I think govs will be very cautious about what they may/may not support in this climate though.

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by tring

[Megabear2]

1 hour ago, molecrochip said:

I don’t believe that either of those are missing because of cutbacks/fuel economy or being

Friends in Southern Florida (Key Largo) told me the vote last year was to attempt to restrict cruise ship passenger visits to Key West to no more than 1700 per day.  A quick look at the annual schedule shows only Carnival Dream at approx 3,600 passengers and Ventura at 3,060 are over the 3000 mark for the whole year.  Everything else through 2023 and 2024 are below the 3000 passenger count.

 

Number of passengers rather than size are being used in Key West and therefore calls by the new P&O ships would appear to be off as a result of that rather than actual physical size.

[molecrochip]

Duplicate 

Edited December 26, 2022 by molecrochip

[tring]

4 minutes ago, Megabear2 said:

Friends in Southern Florida (Key Largo) told me the vote last year was to attempt to restrict cruise ship passenger visits to Key West to no more than 1700 per day.  A quick look at the annual schedule shows only Carnival Dream at approx 3,600 passengers and Ventura at 3,060 are over the 3000 mark for the whole year.  Everything else through 2023 and 2024 are below the 3000 passenger count.

 

Number of passengers rather than size are being used in Key West and therefore calls by the new P&O ships would appear to be off as a result of that rather than actual physical size.

 

Thanks, so may be why Ventura at @3,000 pax is not calling there in early 2025 then, even though she is currently booked for 2024.

 

Bar Harbour is another port that is wanting to limit port load, (1,000 max having been mentioned), though some arguments ongoing within the port apparently.  Hence I would not be surprised if our visit on Aurora, next Sept is axed, though would hope for a replacement port day, which has not been put on the Ventura itineraries for. 2025.

 

I do still wonder if the ships are just scheduled to travel more slowly to save fuel though as that is a change another cruise line has been upfront about going forward.

 

 

[molecrochip]

13 minutes ago, tring said:

I do still wonder if the ships are just scheduled to travel more slowly to save fuel though as that is a change another cruise line has been upfront about going forward.

There is a little of this, but generally the efficiency is by reducing from 24 to 20 knots rather than dropping to 15. It’s dropping from 4 to 3 engines on a four engine ship. The efficiency isn’t there to drop to two engines as you then work them too hard and create maintenance issues.

 

Therefore this manifests as shorter calls rather than less ports, although I guess that could add up over a longer voyage.

[Fionboard]

The big ships are the destinations rather than the ports, it seems. 

[kruzseeka]

24 minutes ago, Fionboard said:

The big ships are the destinations rather than the ports, it seems. 

Yes clearly a 'horses for courses' situation.  Much as we enjoy the ambience on board (though prefer the smaller ships with limited 'attractions'), lectures and some daytime activities we really value getting off and exploring the ports of call. 

Friends are soon to embark on a 30 day cruise with only 7 PoC.  Much as I'm sure I would enjoy relaxing and all the ship has to offer - it's not for us. 

It's just to be hoped that we continue to get the choice of a whatever combination of features appeal to us whether that be larger, destinations type ship/smaller adult only/balance of sea days and PoCs.  

[davecttr]

48 minutes ago, Fionboard said:

The big ships are the destinations rather than the ports, it seems. 

I admit i am starting to feel that way and it suits me. I like sea days and having visited a lot of ports and been on many excursions over the years I usually just have a stroll ashore nowadays. The big ships have lots of choice of venues, restaurants etc and you can find quiet places if you feel like it.. I have an Arvia cruise in April and just booked Britannia and Iona for next summer/autumn. Also thinking of squeezing another in if I can find a bargain, no flights though.

Edited December 26, 2022 by davecttr

[Yorkypete]

2 minutes ago, davecttr said:

I admit i am starting to feel that way and it suits me. I like sea days and having visited a lot of ports and been on many excursions over the years I usually just have a stroll ashore nowadays. The big ships have lots of choice of venues, restaurants etc and you can find quite places if you feel like it.. I have an Arvia cruise in April and just booked Britannia and Iona for next summer/autumn. Also thinking of squeezing another in if I can find a bargain, no flights though.

I cruise to see different places with the luxury of getting there in comfort. I think however we will revert  to Malta for three weeks twice a year instead. We have two weeks booked in March when we are guarant. Can't go wrong with that!eed sunshine and warmth. Our two weeks are with a sea view balcon (very large balcony), all inclusive in a five star hotel for well under £2000 inc flights on Jet 2..

[wowzz]

3 hours ago, Yorkypete said:

I cruise to see different places with the luxury of getting there in comfort. I think however we will revert  to Malta for three weeks twice a year instead. We have two weeks booked in March when we are guarant. Can't go wrong with that!eed sunshine and warmth. Our two weeks are with a sea view balcon (very large balcony), all inclusive in a five star hotel for well under £2000 inc flights on Jet 2..

That's a valid point - if you view the ship as being the equivalent of a floating hotel, why pay the premium for being on a ship.

(I appreciate that this opinion does not apply if you do not wish to fly)

[Yorkypete]

13 minutes ago, wowzz said:

That's a valid point - if you view the ship as being the equivalent of a floating hotel, why pay the premium for being on a ship.

(I appreciate that this opinion does not apply if you do not wish to fly)

We are lucky as we are only 2 miles from the airport. It takes 3hrs 15 mins to fly to Malta but takes 5 hours drive (via coach) to Southampton. 

[Ombud]

I still think Carnival Corp is depleting Costa Cruises 1st and 'protecting' aka keeping country specific lines for now. That means AIDA, PO, POAU should be safe. Think eventually 4 (not 3) to go from Costa. Sell 2. Replace Carnival Sunshine and  POAU Pacific Explorer with Costa Ships. Or move 2 Costas to Carnival & 1 Carnival to POAU. 

 

2 Costa ships to go 1st: Fortuna (2003) and Magica (2004). 

[wowzz]

37 minutes ago, Yorkypete said:

We are lucky as we are only 2 miles from the airport. It takes 3hrs 15 mins to fly to Malta but takes 5 hours drive (via coach) to Southampton. 

I take your point,  but you miss out having to get to the airport two hours early, flight delays, luggage searches etc. 

 

[davecttr]

8 hours ago, wowzz said:

That's a valid point - if you view the ship as being the equivalent of a floating hotel, why pay the premium for being on a ship.

(I appreciate that this opinion does not apply if you do not wish to fly)

Look at it from the perspective of a solo holidaymaker in their 70's. A ship is a much better location than being stuck in a hotel for 2 weeks, especially a foreign hotel. My adventurous days are over but I find myself lucky in being able to afford a foreign holiday unlike many millions of fellow pensioners.

 

You can't take it with you, there are no pockets in a shroud.

[Happy afloat]

10 hours ago, wowzz said:

I take your point,  but you miss out having to get to the airport two hours early, flight delays, luggage searches etc. 

 

Exactly. Last time we flew, Birmingham to Faro, Portugal, it was 11 and a half hours from leaving home to putting our bags down in the hotel.

We can be in Southampton in 2 and a half hours.

[Yorkypete]

11 hours ago, wowzz said:

I take your point,  but you miss out having to get to the airport two hours early, flight delays, luggage searches etc. 

 

We fly Jet2 and have  been able to take our luggage up the evening before the flight. Need to be at the airport about 90 mins before take off but have a coffee whilst waiting. No problem. I think it still beats being at the bus station 30 mins before and then a five hour journey.

[Yorkypete]

57 minutes ago, Happy afloat said:

Exactly. Last time we flew, Birmingham to Faro, Portugal, it was 11 and a half hours from leaving home to putting our bags down in the hotel.

We can be in Southampton in 2 and a half hours.

Wow!. Birmingham must be a bad airport. We have done Leeds to Malta in 61/2 hours, start to finish.. Never seems to take longer. We take about 5 hours to reach Southampton.

 

[wowzz]

27 minutes ago, Yorkypete said:

Wow!. Birmingham must be a bad airport. We have done Leeds to Malta in 61/2 hours, start to finish.. Never seems to take longer. We take about 5 hours to reach Southampton.

 

We actually like BHX. 

When we flew back in earlier this month it took just 20 minutes from landing to getting into our car, and that included a five minute wait for our luggage.

Edited December 27, 2022 by wowzz

[tring]

There is no comparison between flights and travelling to Southampton IMO.  We pay £2pp for fast track and splash out on an airport lounge which is leisure time and also a meal time.  So queues and waiting time are less than we usually have in Southampton.  Picking up duty free in an airport takes a lot less time than trudging around a supermarket to pick up water, coke and perhaps spirits.  We are usually able to pay for emergency extra legroom seats on planes, and again a fair bit of time in the sky is meal/ drink times.

 

Driving to Southampton is a drudge and takes about 8 hours for us including loo stops and generally unpleasant meal/ drink stops, (unless we can find ourselves a decent restaurant on the road, but no alcohol of course).  We do have a local cruise port (Liverpool), but limited cruises from there.  Newcastle/Rosyth, when available, would be preferable ports for us as the journeys there are far more pleasant than going south - we had a very pleasant three days in the N East before a Baltic cruise last year after P&O decided to remove Tallin and a couple of other good ports from our itinerary when SPB was removed, so we cancelled that.

 

Yes there is some other time involved in flights, but it take two full days to weather the Bay of Biscay if going south compared to being in the sun once we arrive after a flight.

 

Without ports, I see no point whatsoever in cruising, but do accept everyone has their own preferences on that.  Cruising is becoming more about the ship experience, which will not be for us.

 

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by tring

[Snow Hill]

3 hours ago, tring said:

 

Without ports, I see no point whatsoever in cruising, but do accept everyone has their own preferences on that.  Cruising is becoming more about the ship experience, which will not be for us.

 

 

We tend to look for cruises with very few sea days, which is why we tend towards fly cruising, personally I find sea days drag out, spending time for something to do, we are not ones for lying on loungers on board for hours on end, 2 hours is usually enough for us on that score and not by the main pool.

 

The ports visited make the cruise, gives a flavour of the place and whether we want to return for a longer stay. If number of ports visited were reduced in favour of sea days or the time in port reduced, then that would not be for us. 

[molecrochip]

16 hours ago, Ombud said:

I still think Carnival Corp is depleting Costa Cruises 1st and 'protecting' aka keeping country specific lines for now. That means AIDA, PO, POAU should be safe. Think eventually 4 (not 3) to go from Costa. Sell 2. Replace Carnival Sunshine and  POAU Pacific Explorer with Costa Ships. Or move 2 Costas to Carnival & 1 Carnival to POAU. 

 

2 Costa ships to go 1st: Fortuna (2003) and Magica (2004). 

I believe the plan is for POAU to end up with three Grand class ships, so that’s coming from Princess as I don’t see POUK giving up Ventura or Azura.

 

I keep seeing comments about Carnival Sunshine however she had major work done in 2013 across all guest areas and on the ship equipment itself so I’d be surprised if Carnival would be pleased to drop her before say 2030.