Will you be cruising in 20 years?

[Honolulu Blue]

This was inspired by a discussion I had in another thread.

 

We all know cruising, its ships, and its passengers, are changing constantly.  I ask you to put on your wizard cap and look 20 years in the future.  I'm fairly certain there will be cruising in the future; the question is will you be one of the ones cruising?

 

(BTW, the poll option for those who can't see them are Yes, No (due to health), No (due to industry changes), No (due to preferring other travel options), and no cruises yet.

 

Since I don't think I'll have any influence, I'll tell you my story.  I'm middle aged and in relatively good health.  I like cruising.  I'm neutral on where cruising is heading - some changes look good, some not so good.  In 20 years, I'll probably be cruising somewhere, somehow.

 

Your story is not like mine.  Kindly tell us yours through the poll or a direct reply, or both.  Thank you!

[GeezerCouple]

We are mid/very late 70s.

 

So in 20 years.... alas...

 

However, IF we could, we certainly would!!

 

GC

[ColeThornton]

Nice poll to remind people they'll be dead in twenty years.   lol

 

 

Edited March 22, 2023 by ColeThornton

[klfrodo]

Probably not. I'm 66 and if family history is any indication, I'll not be around.

If I am still kicking, taking a cruise will most likely not be an enjoyable endeavor for myself, or my family members. At some point, I'll begin to gracefully fade into the background.

[GeezerCouple]

2 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

Nice poll to remind people they'll be dead in twenty years.   lol

 

Yup, a really special way to start the day.  😡

(And, well, some of us will be there in less than 20 years.)

 

Could have been phrased, uh, slightly more delicately, without losing much...

 

The more interesting issue is how cruising (whatever that will look like in 20 years!) and travel more generally will be for the very elderly and otherwise frail/etc.  My new robotic foot will probably be much better than the one I broke while doing competitive ballroom dancing a few years ago!  Maybe I'll have a matching pair!

But with my new personal jetpack, who will need feet then? 🤣

 

GC

[Honolulu Blue]

21 minutes ago, GeezerCouple said:

The more interesting issue is how cruising (whatever that will look like in 20 years!) and travel more generally will be for the very elderly and otherwise frail/etc.  My new robotic foot will probably be much better than the one I broke while doing competitive ballroom dancing a few years ago!  Maybe I'll have a matching pair!

But with my new personal jetpack, who will need feet then? 🤣

I know most cruise lines now bend over backwards for cruisers with all kinds of maladies; I think that's going to continue or even be enhanced unless the age of the average cruise plummets for some reason(s) that I can't think of.

 

A personal jet pack would be really nice - especially if it can propel me at anywhere close to the speed of sound.  Who needs airlines and their hassles when I can zip over to POM in a few hours?  🙂

[GeezerCouple]

3 minutes ago, Honolulu Blue said:

I know most cruise lines now bend over backwards for cruisers with all kinds of maladies; I think that's going to continue or even be enhanced unless the age of the average cruise plummets for some reason(s) that I can't think of.

 

A personal jet pack would be really nice - especially if it can propel me at anywhere close to the speed of sound.  Who needs airlines and their hassles when I can zip over to POM in a few hours?  🙂

 

Yes, and I didn't intend to make light of all of the adjustments that cruising (and travel in general) tend to try to make to help those who need any sort of special accommodations.  It's really remarkable already, and I'm sure it will be better and better.

 

We had already decided, quite some time ago, that IF the only way we could continue to travel would be to have some sort of assistant join us, then we'd do that!

There were some discussions here on CC several years ago about agencies/etc., who could help with that assistance if someone didn't already know someone who could help.

 

Time will tell.

 

GC

[cruisemom42]

My parents cruised into their 80s, hopefully I will do the same.

 

The thing that would likely stop me (aside from any health issues of course) would be the absence of smaller-sized itinerary-focused cruise ships.  Not interested now (or ever, really) in the huge monstrosity lallapalooza ships.

 

 

[Honolulu Blue]

38 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

The thing that would likely stop me (aside from any health issues of course) would be the absence of smaller-sized itinerary-focused cruise ships.  Not interested now (or ever, really) in the huge monstrosity lallapalooza ships.

Ah, but there's the rub.  Much as you and I (and others) might wish it so, I don't see any of the mainstream lines building any more ships smaller than NCL's Prima class ever again, except as expedition ships.  New build ships of that size will probably be luxury liners in 20 years, with prices to match.  The older, smaller ships that are currently running around will mostly be 30+ years old by then.  30 is the traditional retirement age for cruise ships.  I think a lot of them will be heading for the scrapyard in 20 years, and some of those that aren't will be used by... less prestigious lines that are out of the mainstream.  The rest will split, I predict - some will go on short runs to/from the Bahamas or the equivalent in other regions, and some will be held for long and exotic runs around the world until the end comes for them.

[cruisemom42]

33 minutes ago, Honolulu Blue said:

Ah, but there's the rub.  Much as you and I (and others) might wish it so, I don't see any of the mainstream lines building any more ships smaller than NCL's Prima class ever again, except as expedition ships.  New build ships of that size will probably be luxury liners in 20 years, with prices to match.  The older, smaller ships that are currently running around will mostly be 30+ years old by then.  30 is the traditional retirement age for cruise ships.  I think a lot of them will be heading for the scrapyard in 20 years, and some of those that aren't will be used by... less prestigious lines that are out of the mainstream.  The rest will split, I predict - some will go on short runs to/from the Bahamas or the equivalent in other regions, and some will be held for long and exotic runs around the world until the end comes for them.

 

You're probably right, but possibly -- just possibly -- enough ports will have had enough of the huge ships. It's starting already: Bar Harbor, Key West, Monterey. And in Europe there's Venice, Dubrovnik, Santorini...   And some of Norway's fjords will be banning all but zero-emission vessels in the next couple of years.

 

I also am not sure (in hindsight) that holding on to some of those older ships might not be a good idea. Overhauling them for continued use may be more cost-efficient than building new ships IF there is a reason for continuing to sail them, such as the above...

[lenquixote66]

If I am still cruising in 20 years I will definitely be in the Guinness Book of records.

[Honolulu Blue]

9 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

You're probably right, but possibly -- just possibly -- enough ports will have had enough of the huge ships. It's starting already: Bar Harbor, Key West, Monterey. And in Europe there's Venice, Dubrovnik, Santorini...   And some of Norway's fjords will be banning all but zero-emission vessels in the next couple of years.

 

I also am not sure (in hindsight) that holding on to some of those older ships might not be a good idea. Overhauling them for continued use may be more cost-efficient than building new ships IF there is a reason for continuing to sail them, such as the above...

Good points.  The number of ports that have a limit on cruise ship size is relatively small now, but certainly could grow in the future.  This, of course, could be offset by the cruise lines building more private destinations, which will of course take the largest ships.

 

As for overhauling ships, I'm sure there will be some of that.  But there's a limit to how far it can go.  How much sense does it make to throw $200 million or more at a 30-to-40-year-old ship at the end of the day?  I suppose we'll see.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Honolulu Blue

[Joebucks]

I'll be there. Popular ports are not going to get any less crowded. No need for me to draw a line in the sand of how premium my tastes will be. I will do what makes sense for me at the time. 

[gregma60]

2 hours ago, Honolulu Blue said:

As for overhauling ships, I'm sure there will be some of that.  But there's a limit to how far it can go.  How much sense does it make to throw $200 million or more at a 30-to-40-year-old ship at the end of the day?  I suppose we'll see.

Might depend on the cost of building new.  If it costs $8 billion to build a small to medium sized ship, the $200 million the ROI might well be worth it...

 

-gregma

Edited March 22, 2023 by gregma60

[Sea42]

I will probably cruise more then than I do now. As we get older, I think it will be easier than independent land travel.

[lenquixote66]

I cruised till I was close to 80 then the body said probably not too much more.

[SPacificbound]

I am 82 and have 4 cruises booked for 2023 and two in 2024. If I was younger, than most certainly I would still cruise, but right now I am hoping I make the ones I have booked.  😀

[clackey]

If I am ambulatory and still have money in the bank when I am 92, then yes, I will cruise.

[DarrenM]

I will be 77 then so if I am lucky with health then definitely yes.

 

Beats the thought of a nursing home right?

[Lois R]

In 20 years? I will be 85.. If there was a Poll Answer that actually stated "I don't know", I would have voted for that one........I don't know If I will even be alive in 20 years😮

[wcook]

If I’m alive, I picture myself thinking that 79 degrees is a bit too chilly to venture out. I’ll just sit on my balcony wrapped in a blanket. 

[Heidi13]

19 hours ago, gregma60 said:

Might depend on the cost of building new.  If it costs $8 billion to build a small to medium sized ship, the $200 million the ROI might well be worth it...

 

-gregma

 

If it costs $8 billion to build a small/medium ship, you would get minimal repair, regulatory and refurbishment work on existing tonnage for $200 million.

 

Regardless of price, the fact remains that as tonnage ages, it requires more frequent inspections and maintenance. Older tonnage also has the increased potential for schedule disruptions, and when in maintenance periods, greater arisings that were not evident when the scope of work was developed. Arisings are significantly more expensive, at times up to 9x more than planned work. You also must consider the potential for regulatory changes and the cost of upgrading existing tonnage, if not grandfathered.

 

Therefore, as tonnage ages beyond the normal sell by date, risk tolerance and many other factors are significant considerations.

 

 

[antmaril]

I didn’t vote because my answer makes me sad.  I am 71 - do the math.  😩

[ontheweb]

I'll be in my mid 90s by then, so I doubt it. 

 

I just hope I can keep up with our London to Reykjavik cruise this summer.

[cruisemom42]

8 hours ago, antmaril said:

I didn’t vote because my answer makes me sad.  I am 71 - do the math.  😩

 

I cruised on a Voyages to Antiquity cruise with a feisty 90-something years old woman who was not only a conversational tour-de-force but also was gung ho on every excursion.