RCL Stock

[xpcdoojk]

3 hours ago, bobmacliberty said:

Anytime that I think I have knowledge, or even just an inkling of a thought about how I may be able to predict what a stock might do, I'm already days/weeks/months behind the pros who make their living in the market.  And my thoughts are already priced into the stock.  It's easy to point out the wins...someone picked up Royal in the low 20s and has already seen it double.  How about the times where that didn't work?  Market timing is no way to make money consistently.

 

Saw an interesting article a few years ago about AI software that was being developed to analyze market news.  It would look for positive and negative words that would indicate an emotional shift in a particular stock that might be used to predict a future increase/decrease.  That either never happened, or someone is making a boatload of money with it and keeping it quiet.

 

My wealth manager already had me at about 30% in bonds and well diversified otherwise.  I'll wait on the sidelines until they decide it's time to shift back to stronger equity plays.  The Royal shareholder discount is meaningless in the big picture.

As an economist who spent way too much time in gradual school.  The Random walk theory is still true.

 

All known information is present in today’s value of an item/stock.  Knowing which way it will go tomorrow is absolutely random (assuming you don’t have insider information).  What I am saying is experts have the same probability of saying it will go up tomorrow as someone throwing a dart at the the stock listing and hitting a winner tomorrow.  

 

Which means it is good to be a Senator getting secret information and trading upon it.

 

jc

[Biker19]

1 hour ago, irzero said:

Asia is also relatively untapped and so is south America and the middle east.

Yet, RCI pulled out of those markets, I assume because they couldn't make as much money as elsewhere.

[The_Big_M]

4 hours ago, irzero said:

My logic is that businesses adapt. Your views are so simplistic that they will never happen.

Any drop in demand from its usual market can be countered with new markets that they never needed or wanted before.

Filling ships is just about offering new experiences and opening up different markets. Stick some famous DJs on cruise ships and watch a whole new demographic flood in. Also has the side benefit of not giving a monkey's about corona and less likely to fall sick with it in any meaningful way.

Asia is also relatively untapped and so is south America and the middle east.

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

 

That isn't logic. That's also just a simplistic view. Look at Kodak as just one example, and there have been many.

 

In this specific scenario, one disproof of your theory is that if that were the case they would not need to sell any ships as they could just "enter new markets" and moreover would want to expand as many ships as possible. Which is evident from Celebrity and Azamara as key brands of the RCL portfolio have not seen any fleet growth in the past decade at all - despite it being a massive growth period overall.

 

 

[Daytonasailor]

On 3/24/2020 at 2:45 PM, Daytonasailor said:

Right. Got on this board and reading about cars. Hummm  just saying  Just bought 50 shares and will watch it go up. Bought ncl last week and it’s almost doubled. 

Wrong on NCl. Last night it did not double. It was up 102%. RCl up 15.94%.

[Biker19]

22 minutes ago, The_Big_M said:

Which is evident from Celebrity and Azamara as key brands of the RCL portfolio have not seen any fleet growth in the past decade at all

What is Edge class then? Most of the Solstice class is less than 10 years old.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Biker19

[Jimbo]

Price now utterly defies logic. I just know now if I buy it's going to drop like crazy as I continue to just sit on the sidelines doing nothing.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Jimbo

[Ourusualbeach]

Craziness ensues...stock about to hit $50

[Ocean Boy]

2 hours ago, irzero said:

Cruise lines are no different than any locked down business at the moment.

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

I would not say they are like any locked down business. Those ships suck up a lot more money than a typical locked down store.

[Ocean Boy]

12 minutes ago, irzero said:

Nobody knows the economics. Stores are usually rented. Ships are probably like a mortgaged asset.

It's hard to know at this point which is worse.

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

Ships are continuing to burn fuel, a certain number of crew need to be kept aboard, fed, and paid, mechanical issues need to be fixed, supplies need to be continually brought aboard to support the crew,  when they pull into port there a fees involved, etc. I don't know how many closed businesses are in the process of building a new "location" at the cost of a billion dollars a copy. Nor do I know how many have the cost of getting tbeir workers home to locations all around the world. 

 

There is a lot more involved than rent vs. mortgaged asset. But, true, no one knows the true ecconomics.

[ed01106]

3 hours ago, irzero said:

Kodak's core business model was photo film which went practically extinct. Useless comparison.

Cruise lines are no different than any locked down business at the moment.

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

Several flaws in that theory:

 

1. While I consider cruise lines at greater risk, there are going to be plenty of business that don’t survive this.  I wouldn’t take comfort in the theory everyone is in the same boat, even if it was true, but it is not.

 

2. Most major companies are not completely shut down.  Disney closed its parks, but their online streaming service is getting more traffic than they anticipated a few months ago.  The Gap has closed some mall stores but are still operating their online business.  Walmart is selling less of somethings but more groceries.  Airlines have less business but are not completely shut down.  Hotels may (sadly) get some business as makeshift recovery/isolation centers.

 

3. Cruiselines could very well be among the last business to reopen.  Avoid crowds of more than 10, could become no more than 50 then 100 then 200 taking several months or years before things like a cruise ship or NYE in times square is permitted.  For example I would not be surprised if all major sports have a full year where they are permitted to play in front of the TV but the stands are closed.  

 

4. Cruise lines are less able to take advantage of pent up demand. Much of there pent up demand will be honoring FCC which doesn’t bring in much cash.

 

5. Even if the USA reopens for cruise ship business the med, caribbean islands, and asian countries may all say no.  Keep in mind Canada hasn’t promised to start letting cruise ships in July.  Just that they are absolutely banned until then, they could extend that.

 

6. Just because Trump decides to let cruise ships sail doesn’t mean the Governor of Florida will allow ship to use the ports.

 

 

 

 

[epanchenko]

According to this article, the cruise lines may not even be eligible for the bailout.  It is still being determined.

 

CNBC Cruise Bailout Eligibility in Question

[Ourusualbeach]

Lucked out this morning.  Sold 100 that I first bought at $37 for just over $48.  Holding onto my 100 that I bought at $20.

 

Looks  like the market might be reacting to the exclusion of cruise lines from the bailout. 

[Ocean Boy]

Just now, Ourusualbeach said:

Lucked out this morning.  Sold 100 that I first bought at $37 for just over $48.  Holding onto my 100 that I bought at $20.

 

Looks  like the market might be reacting to the exclusion of cruise lines from the bailout. 

I was going to say that. I haven't been able to figure out the crazy pricing on this stock anyway. And I couldn't come up with a reason for the drop until I read the article.

[RoyalC]

1 hour ago, epanchenko said:

According to this article, the cruise lines may not even be eligible for the bailout.  It is still being determined.

 

CNBC Cruise Bailout Eligibility in Question

 

Good post, and my feeling after reading the article is that cruise lines, as mentioned, are not eligible for a bailout.

[gkbiiii]

The cruise industry was too cleaver for its own good.  Not being taxed in the US or key country's and having all ships "flagged in country's of convenience" has now bit them in the ass.  Perhaps Liberia will bailout Royal, we can wait and see!

[RoyalC]

1 hour ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Lucked out this morning.  Sold 100 that I first bought at $37 for just over $48.  Holding onto my 100 that I bought at $20.

 

Looks  like the market might be reacting to the exclusion of cruise lines from the bailout. 

 

Congrats. I should have bought at $20 when the bailout was mentioned, at least for a short term trade. The bounce was much higher than I thought it would be. Haven't even looked today at the stock. It gets to a point where I am fed up enough with the garbage on Wall Street, and the games from the Fed. It is an insiders game. The Fed knows what is going on, and they do not broadcast it exactly. I'd prefer no bailout, cheap shares that eventually rebound so we can all sit in the lounge with our winnings, no cares in the world.

[ed01106]

1 minute ago, irzero said:

The US market is out of control. Until we see 6 months of earnings reports we are in for a wild ride. The market will have to reflect fundamentals at some point. I wouldnt buy anything now nothing is what I'd consider to be cheap now given how little we know about the world economy.

The stimulus wont do anything to keep businesses from going under. The demand after all of this will be much lower which will reflect in more job losses and that is how a downturn starts.

20$ oil means nobody in US shale is going to be employed. Stimulus or not.

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

I wouldn’t go quite that far.  Amazon’s 1st quarter’s earnings are going to beat December’s expectations.  Grocery stores, food companies, pharmaceutical, UPS, FedEx, Cable companies, companies that provide VPNs, telecommunications, netflix.  Say away from cruise lines, hotel chains, airlines.

[RoyalC]

Trump speaking- Wants cruise companies to register in United States. Avoided saying they would get bailout. Going to try and work something out. Seems like he understands. Not a good look for the cruise lines getting government help.

[RoyalC]

4 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

I wouldn’t go quite that far.  Amazon’s 1st quarter’s earnings are going to beat December’s expectations.  Grocery stores, food companies, pharmaceutical, UPS, FedEx, Cable companies, companies that provide VPNs, telecommunications, netflix.  Say away from cruise lines, hotel chains, airlines.

 

Add banks, mortgage, restaurants, car rental, anything service including cleaning companies, other retail.

[RoyalC]

8 minutes ago, gkbiiii said:

The cruise industry was too cleaver for its own good.  Not being taxed in the US or key country's and having all ships "flagged in country's of convenience" has now bit them in the ass.  Perhaps Liberia will bailout Royal, we can wait and see!

 

"Perhaps Liberia will bailout Royal, we can wait and see!" ROFL

 

[Ourusualbeach]

3 minutes ago, RETNAVY1996 said:

Congratulations, I bailed on a bunch yesterday and it more than covered the ones I am keeping for now, so I get to watch and see what happens.   Should have waited until today, but this way I was sure to double the ones I sold.

I was going to yesterday when it hit $42 but I wanted to talk to someone one about my trading account.  3 hours of trying, getting cut off and being on hold and I gave up and by the time I finally got the answer I was looking for the stock dropped a bit so I held off.  Pulled the plug today.  The one time I was actually thankful for an overworked support team that took forever in answering my question.  

 

With the gain gain I took the 100;I have left really only cost me $9 a share. If (When) it drops again I might jump back in

[Blizzard54]

42 minutes ago, gkbiiii said:

The cruise industry was too cleaver for its own good.  Not being taxed in the US or key country's and having all ships "flagged in country's of convenience" has now bit them in the ass.  Perhaps Liberia will bailout Royal, we can wait and see!

In todays press conference Trump even mentioned something about cruise line moving their registration to the US.  Under the PVSA that is not even possible.  The ships would have had to have been built in the US.  Also I believe it requires 75% of the crew to be US citizens.   Then there are all the US employment rules.  NCL tried to operate 3 ships in Hawaii under the US flag.  It failed because the costs were too high and they could not sufficiently staff the ships. 

[Ourusualbeach]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard54 said:

In todays press conference Trump even mentioned something about cruise line moving their registration to the US.  Under the PVSA that is not even possible.  The ships would have had to have been built in the US.  Also I believe it requires 75% of the crew to be US citizens.   Then there are all the US employment rules.  NCL tried to operate 3 ships in Hawaii under the US flag.  It failed because the costs were too high and they could not sufficiently staff the ships. 

That’s not quite correct.  Cruise lines can definitely be registered and flagged in the US however that alone does not grant them an exemption to the PVSA.  To meet the requirements for the PVSA then you get into American crew and built in.

 

The two are completely different.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Ourusualbeach

[Ocean Boy]

13 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

That’s not quite correct.  Cruise lines can definitely be registered and flagged in the US however that alone does not grant them an exemption to the PVSA.  To meet the requirements for the PVSA then you get into American crew and built in.

 

The two are completely different.

Thanks, I too, thought they had to be built here to be flagged here. So if flagging the ship here doesn't get you an exemption from PVSA what is the benefit of doing it other than maybe needing a government bailout at some time?

[Ourusualbeach]

2 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

Thanks, I too, thought they had to be built here to be flagged here. So if flagging the ship here doesn't get you an exemption from PVSA what is the benefit of doing it other than maybe needing a government bailout at some time?

Paying taxes and a bailout. There may be others.  The Chief explained it in a post within the last few days.