RCL Stock

[soloadventurer]

Currently down 14%

[Ourusualbeach]

3 minutes ago, soloadventurer said:

Currently down 14%

The market in general is down. 

[soloadventurer]

Just now, Ourusualbeach said:

The market in general is down. 

 

Yeah not 14% though 

[Ourusualbeach]

Just now, soloadventurer said:

 

Yeah not 14% though 

And cruise lines typically have been down more than the market on down days and up more than the market on the up days...a lot more volatile. 

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

I had sold my RCL shares beck a few years ago. I did buy 100 recently when it went way down. Right now I am way ahead even today. So we all shall see. I do think, even with the 100 more days for no cruising that it will get back to where it was maybe even higher. We have been doing 4-6 a year for several years now. Some years even more. I am thinking that people like us who are avid cruisers will want to make up for lost time. My wife who told me to cut down to 4 a year, now can't wait for the next cruise. So we figure the stock will go way up and I am thinking in less than a year. 🤞

[taglovestocruise]

4 hours ago, soloadventurer said:

 

Yeah not 14% though 

Got stoped out this morning at $35.  That makes three stop loss triggers since mid March. Up $2000 on three in and out trades.  Probably get back in and hold for the long term if it takes a hit tomorrow. Still in CCL and NCL.

[Ourusualbeach]

1 minute ago, taglovestocruise said:

Got stoped out this morning at $35.  That makes three stop loss triggers since mid March. Up $2000 on three in and out trades.  Probably get back in and hold for the long term if it takes a hit tomorrow. Still in CCL and NCL.

About the same here.  Back to my initial cash on hand plus I still have the 100 shares that I purchased at just under $20.  I’m back in anytime it drops below $30. 

[mkmaj]

After reading the back and forth here I bought in at $25 last week. Wish I would have pulled the trigger at $19 but I'll take it. Here's to hoping RCI pulls through this and I didn't throw money out the window 🥂!

[rimmit]

The current CDC requirements aren’t making cruising likely anytime soon without a vaccine.  I don’t foresee any nations allowing a cruise ship to port there and no nation will be willing to accept the responsibility every time an outbreak occurs which was becoming incredibly commonplace after the media got too busy paying attention to other things.

 

I sold all my NCL, CCL, and RCI today.  Been up 50 percent playing the swings so darts. May buy back in if the drops back to single digits for NCL and ccl and back to low 20s for RCL and play the swings.
 

These stocks are staring down the barrel of bankruptcy in about a year though....   and originally I thought for sure they’d be cruising by then, but the new CDC requirements make that look incredibly unlikely if not near impossible.

Edited April 13, 2020 by rimmit

[soloadventurer]

Yeah lots of rumours that Royal will do something similar to Carnival to raise extra finances 

[chipmaster]

19 minutes ago, rimmit said:

The current CDC requirements aren’t making cruising likely anytime soon without a vaccine.  I don’t foresee any nations allowing a cruise ship to port there and no nation will be willing to accept the responsibility every time an outbreak occurs which was becoming incredibly commonplace after the media got too busy paying attention to other things.

 

I sold all my NCL, CCL, and RCI today.  Been up 50 percent playing the swings so darts. May buy back in if the drops back to single digits for NCL and ccl and back to low 20s for RCL and play the swings.
 

These stocks are staring down the barrel of bankruptcy in about a year though....   and originally I thought for sure they’d be cruising by then, but the new CDC requirements make that look incredibly unlikely if not near impossible.

 

Yeah it has been a good short term trade, but each time it dips I always wonder if it is the last drive to worthless toilet paper value certificates, LOL

[taglovestocruise]

1 hour ago, chipmaster said:

 

Yeah it has been a good short term trade, but each time it dips I always wonder if it is the last drive to worthless toilet paper value certificates, LOL

Are you willing to sell short.  Even with sharks in the water a short trade could be dangerous.  Todays after hour trades are up a dollar. 

[chipmaster]

18 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

Are you willing to sell short.  Even with sharks in the water a short trade could be dangerous.  Todays after hour trades are up a dollar. 

 

Ah short, puts/calls are all in play, volatility is the friend of day traders, LOL

[Hoopster95]

I wish I can remember which one of you explained the bond market, and how the market perceives all the cruising stock (junk bond ratings and being lent money at 12%), not just RCL. Here's the best written description that I have found

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4337266-bond-markets-are-saying-royal-caribbean-is-still-on-thin-ice

 

"With the highly levered balance sheet and no cruises launching until at least 11 May, the almost relief rally-esque movement in RCL’s stock is unwarranted."

 

I'm not arguing against those analysts who think the stock is only going up, just saying here's a different perspective.

I'm not knowledgeable enough to know which factors are more important, and even more so, what data being published and "analyzed" is correct or not.

[soloadventurer]

The interesting point from that analyst was “Given the liquidity issues and high debt burden, the picture starts to look a bit dicey for equity investors“ 

 

I believe the share price is basically being held up by speculators. 

[soloadventurer]

The latest from the CEO - long way to go ( not the beginning of the end - just maybe the end of the beginning wow )

 

 

[LMaxwell]

13 hours ago, Hoopster95 said:

 

I'm not knowledgeable enough to know which factors are more important

Cash Flow 

[Sunshine3601]

I'm surprised to see this stock inclining today.  There is no light at the end of this virus yet and so many unknowns with cruises and opening of ports.  What is driving the incline today?

 

[Biker19]

18 minutes ago, Sunshine3601 said:

What is driving the incline today?

General mood of the market.

[ed01106]

57 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

General mood of the market.

The number one beneficiary of Quantitative easement and the stimulus package is the equity markets. There is a ton of cash floating out there available for investing.  Normally in this would result in spending on expansions, buying new equipment, hiring new workers etc.  But that is not possible or practical during a shut down.  Interest rates are too low to make bonds attractive.  Money needs to go somewhere.  While the prudent thing would be to use it first to reduce debt, that is unlikely when the debt has such a low interest rate.   Hence money is flowing to equity markets and causing inflation of stocks.  

[csnarpy]

I know its unlikely, but the fact the stock went up today somehow reminds me of the housing market fall, but when it didn't fall when it should have nose dived. All in all, this could be just a delay of the inevitable.

 

Yep I watched the Big Short again... lol

Edited April 14, 2020 by csnarpy

[zekekelso]

1 hour ago, csnarpy said:

Yep I watched the Big Short again... lol

 

Random note... the Big Short guy just bough a whole bunch of GameStop stock, apparently trying to trigger a short squeeze ahead of a proxy fight that's coming up. Even though pretty much everybody agrees GameStop is dead company walking, the stock price is skyrocketing. Sometimes the market is all about gambling and a big game of pass the potato, not having anything to do with the company's intrinsic value.

 

Not that I"m making the comparison to RCL or anything 🙂

[steveru621]

Don't bet more than you can afford to lose.

[Wolf 8]

If anyone is interested, financial resources such as Seeking Alpha have recently made dispassionate evaluations of RCL stock.  The hard numbers show that today the assets of RCL are worth far, far less than it's liabilities.  More ominously, RCL's recent, high-cost loans surely have covenants that can force bankruptcy (if they don't, you must think those cold-blooded lenders have suddenly become Little Bo Peep's).

 

I more than doubled my money several weeks ago buying then selling RCL when there was the potential for a bailout in the air.  That does not exist today.

 

I may again risk pocket money if RCL gets close to $20 but it I won't see it as investing.  It will be the same as setting a couple of black chips on the pass line in Vegas.  At least there I get a free drink and a wink from the cocktail waitress.

[ed01106]

11 minutes ago, Wolf 8 said:

More ominously, RCL's recent, high-cost loans surely have covenants that can force bankruptcy (if they don't, you must think those cold-blooded lenders have suddenly become Little Bo Peep's).

 

It is not in a lenders best interest to force bankruptcy.