100 more days

[Milwaukee Eight]

2 minutes ago, nbsjcruiser said:

Hope you're right but there is a difference here. Ebola, Zika (I assume you meant Zika) didn't infect worldwide at rates like this. Don't forget that Ebola is not infectious until the person is basically on their death bed so you know they have it and can protect yourself. And Zika death rates are very low. 

 

This virus is much more infectious because of its stealth. I can be standing in a large room crowded with people, healthy, feeling good, no symptoms at all but I could also be spreading this thing to many others in the same room. You are right that people do have short memories but those memories are going to be jogged regularly with every cruise ship that gets contaminated and spends weeks at sea looking for a place to offload sick and dead people. And until there is a vaccine its not a matter of if this will happen, its when. And lets not forget that cruise ships have a much higher rate of older people on them - prime targets for this virus.

 

I don't see how a cruise ship can protect its passengers and crew and this is not to blame cruise ships. The cruise industry has taken a black eye on all this and its not their fault. As long as people are travelling from all over the country and world via cars, planes and trains, the virus is going to have a viable vehicle to travel to the cruise ports. And dont forget cruise ships travel to different countries which makes the complexity of containing this all the more difficult. Even if you could somehow detect sick people before they board on day 1 it wont help. Passengers could be asymptomatic or pick it up in port elsewhere.

 

I like your optimism and I hope for a return to normal too but that's going to take a long time. There will be a few who will jump right back in with both feet but there will be many who are going to wait to see how things go and many who will wait for a vaccine. For my money, a return to normal comes when there is a vaccine and cruise ships make you prove you have it before allowing you on or near a ship.

Thanks. You did a much better job explaining the difference between the Virus strains than I did. (COVID19 vs Ebola/Zika)
 

In my opinion 

[livingonthebeach]

This Bloomberg article reports that a vaccine could be available as early as September.  Let's hope this comes true!  Finally, a bit of positive news!!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-in-six-months-times

[nbsjcruiser]

1 minute ago, livingonthebeach said:

This Bloomberg article reports that a vaccine could be available as early as September.  Let's hope this comes true!  Finally, a bit of positive news!!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-in-six-months-times

 

Oh, lets hope so! Thanks for posting.

[Milwaukee Eight]

6 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

This Bloomberg article reports that a vaccine could be available as early as September.  Let's hope this comes true!  Finally, a bit of positive news!!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-in-six-months-times

This is an article based on the UK. I believe the FDA in the US are more strict on the trials required to insure any new vaccine is safe for the public. Even with the emergency order, I don’t see the Medical family buying into a public release in September. 
 

In my opinion 

Edited April 12, 2020 by Milwaukee Eight

[livingonthebeach]

19 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

This is an article based on the UK. I believe the FDA in the US are more strict on the trails required to insure any new vaccine is safe for the public. Even with the emergency order, I don’t see the Medical family buying into a public release in September. 
 

In my opinion 

You are probably right that a public release of an effective vaccine more than likely won't happen in September but we should remain hopeful that a treatment comes before that time and eventually a vaccine earlier than the estimated 12-18 months.  

 

I love cruising and would hate for the ships to be grounded for a year or two -- don't think the industry could survive such a revenue bleed.  In the meantime, I'm praying like heck this thing goes away 🙏🙏🙏

Edited April 12, 2020 by livingonthebeach

[livingonthebeach]

Here's a list of Covid19 vaccines being developed - let's hope one of these work and is out soon!  Happy Easter and Passover everyone!

 

[Ocean Boy]

Lots of people keep using the words vaccine and soon in the same sentence. You might want to concern yourselves more with whatever it is that gets injected into your body being safe no matter how long it takes. I am far more worried about something getting rushed to market and some know it all politicians setting up some mandatory requirement for people to get it.

[HxFx]

11 hours ago, gkbiiii said:

Yes this is right, about Royal not being a good deal for the money. Example for $4,000 I took a vacation for two, from Miami to Mexico City & Acapulco for ten nights.

Wow, that is a good deal! My comparison with our trips to Turks & Caicos, St. Croix, Aruba, Belize, and Grand Cayman do not work out to be cheaper (and with 3 of those places we had a kitchen and cooked several meals ourselves). That’s one of the reasons I decided to try mixing in cruises a few years ago. I’ve never been to Mexico, maybe prices are much better there. Where were you flying from? Are you comparing similar rooms (balcony on a cruise ship vs. ocean view at hotel)? 

 

Regardless, it looks nice and I will keep it in mind when planning a land vacation (which I will always continue to do) I love the land vacations but am just figuring out what type of cruising works for me, it was only going to be my 3rd cruise next week. I like hitting a bunch of ports and getting ideas for future land vacations but I also enjoy the cruising activities so hope to be able to continue both land and sea vacations!

[adidas5676]

2 hours ago, rimmit said:

I agree a vaccine is no guarantee but the fact that there is a low mutation rate is in our favor.  Also outside of HIV and RSV (and RSV May have a vaccine in the next couple years.  Several are in clinical trials right now) there are no other significant diseases that we have thrown a large amount of research dollars into and not created a vaccine for.  With the amount of attention on this now, the fact that the government seems to have cut ALL the FDA red tape it definitely bodes well to get a vaccine in the next 18 months.

In terms of herd immunity,   COVID has an R0=2.5(-ish). For COVID to be stable in the US or for R0<1, the Herd Immunity Threshold needs to be >60% (i.e >60% of the population needs to be immune). Given there is no vaccine, this means 60% of our population would need to get COVID for Herd Immunity to work. US population 327.2 million. 60%= 196.32 million people. If the mortality of COVID is 1% (many current estimates are ballparking that number), this means that 1.96 million Americans would die in order to have herd immunity with no vaccine. Let’s say that the fatality rate is half that or even a quarter given the number of asymptomatic cases.  That’s still 1 million to 500k in American deaths.   We haven’t even extrapolated to the whole world.
 

I personally don’t feel that 500k American deaths (on the absolute lowest end with a 0.25 Percent death rate, Which is WELL below current estimates) is acceptable to reach herd immunity.

 

Thank you for this post.  It really puts things into perspective.

[LMaxwell]

If the entire hope rests on rapid vaccine and not figuring out how the cruise lines can meet the new requirements I think the industry, at least US based sailings, is doomed. 

[livingonthebeach]

10 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

Lots of people keep using the words vaccine and soon in the same sentence. You might want to concern yourselves more with whatever it is that gets injected into your body being safe no matter how long it takes. I am far more worried about something getting rushed to market and some know it all politicians setting up some mandatory requirement for people to get it.

 

Unfortunately, it might just come to the point where we are put in the incredibly difficult decision of having to choose between a vaccine we don't feel entirely comfortable with or choking our economy to levels never seen since the Great Depression.  

[livingonthebeach]

2 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:

If the entire hope rests on rapid vaccine and not figuring out how the cruise lines can meet the new requirements I think the industry, at least US based sailings, is doomed. 

 

Let's hope not.  A treatment for Covid19 (there are many in the works) is likely to come out sooner.  A treatment together with other measures might allow ships to sail before a vaccine is developed, IMHO.  Ships also depend on many countries for ports and services and it will also be a function of how other countries evolve in the Covid age as to where the ships can go unless it is a cruise to nowhere.  The complexity of this situation is that it changes day by day.  I'm hoping for the best and trying to keep a positive mind-set in all this but it's not easy. 

[nbsjcruiser]

7 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:

If the entire hope rests on rapid vaccine and not figuring out how the cruise lines can meet the new requirements I think the industry, at least US based sailings, is doomed. 

Much is going to change with the cruise industry when this finally comes to an end. Even  this year  is going to be a major hurdle some lines do not recover from. With no cruises until AT LEAST August, there will be major financial hardship in the cruise industry.

[lizzie_m]

11 hours ago, johnjen said:

We are so sorry you're facing that about the airfare. All we can do now is hope they cancel our cruise, but they will try sweet talking all of us into their shell game called Future Cruise Credit....no, they can keep their extra 25%.....just give us our money back....all of it, including our deposit. If they don't, I'll be contacting the Federal Trade Commission.

Just found out there may be hope on the airfare.  I checked to see if our flights were still on and lo and behold our flight from here to Amsterdam has been cancelled.  Flight back from Amsterdam is still showing.  Airline never notified me of the cancellation.  According to the 4/3 notification from the DOT we can get a refund (in the form of original payment) NOT a voucher since the airline cancelled the flight.  We'll see what hoops I have to go through to get a refund.

[strathcona]

I think it is important to note the conditions that the cruise line need to meet for the no sail conditions to be lifted. There are seven and they are for the safety of the people on land as well as the people cruising. It puts the onus on the cruise line vice the country which they sail from or to. The 100 days is just a marker, the seven requirements are or will be very difficult for cruise line industry to meet while there is still the threat of the virus spreading. I don't think any cruise ship can meet those requirement in the short term. 

[Iamcruzin]

19 hours ago, nbsjcruiser said:

I cant say this for sure but I wouldn't have been at all surprised to see the Adventure of the Seas on that list. We sailed on her on Feb 15-23. Two in our party got really sick with what we thought was a nasty head cold. Our son in law battled it only for a couple of days but shortly afterwards our son got it and suffered for almost 2 weeks. Fever, congested, chest tightness, hard to breathe. Of course we weren't fully aware in February but looking back on it now I wonder.

My son and future Daughter in Law sailed the same week on Carnival. They had the same symptoms for 2 weeks when they returned. We didn't have the covid tests in February and their PCP sent them to urgent care. They tested negative for the flu. I bet they had covid-19 but weren't diagnosed.

[Georgia_Peaches]

1 minute ago, Iamcruzin said:

My son and future Daughter in Law sailed the same week on Carnival. They had the same symptoms for 2 weeks when they returned. We didn't have the covid tests in February and their PCP sent them to urgent care. They tested negative for the flu. I bet they had covid-19 but weren't diagnosed.

Praying they have both recovered!

[Iamcruzin]

Just now, Georgia_Peaches said:

Praying they have both recovered!

Thank you. Yes they did. They self quarantine and have been working from home ever since. They were engaged on that cruise so this will be part of their history. The started to look at wedding venues for next year and that got shut down. Now they plan on a 2022 wedding in the fall.

[livingonthebeach]

8 minutes ago, strathcona said:

I think it is important to note the conditions that the cruise line need to meet for the no sail conditions to be lifted. There are seven and they are for the safety of the people on land as well as the people cruising. It puts the onus on the cruise line vice the country which they sail from or to. The 100 days is just a marker, the seven requirements are or will be very difficult for cruise line industry to meet while there is still the threat of the virus spreading. I don't think any cruise ship can meet those requirement in the short term. 

 

I totally agree.  Complying with the new orders will probably push the fares up in the long run as they can not implement these changes at the current fares in a cost effective way without changing their entire business model, if that can even be done. 

[livingonthebeach]

The Miami Herald reported yesterday that there are 7 ships and 6,000 passengers still at sea.  

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article241929131.html

[Iamcruzin]

15 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

How long have you been cruising and how many times have you become sick in a cruise? If that is the type of assurance you want you might want to consider staying home. And be careful in the grocery store. People touch all types of items in there and then put them back. You don't know what you are coming in contact with when you touch something, or breath the air, in there.

 If you get contaminated in the grocery store,which given the precautions and the limited time that you are there, it's a lot less risky than on a cruise ship. You will also be confined at home and not in a cruise ship stateroom with limited medical care. One thing that will change for me in the future is that if I can't afford a balcony I won't book a cruise.

[Ocean Boy]

2 minutes ago, Iamcruzin said:

 If you get contaminated in the grocery store,which given the precautions and the limited time that you are there, it's a lot less risky than on a cruise ship. You will also be confined at home and not in a cruise ship stateroom with limited medical care. One thing that will change for me in the future is that if I can't afford a balcony I won't book a cruise.

I am not arguing your points. I just don't see ever getting the level of reassurance  of a disease free environment the person I quoted is looking for.

[rtazz17]

1 hour ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Unfortunately, it might just come to the point where we are put in the incredibly difficult decision of having to choose between a vaccine we don't feel entirely comfortable with or choking our economy to levels never seen since the Great Depression.  

Vaccine will never ever ever be released unless its 100% safe to public. That is a guarantee. Thats why it will be at minimum a year and prolly 2-3.....  the economy will open.... it will just be ready to put hot spots out as they arise..... we have lived with viruses in the past and still had an economy. This will be no different. Once people realize they are not going to die if they actually get covid things will settle. You really have to dive into the numbers to actually see how much of a chance you really have of dieing from this. Its so miniscual its a non issue. Dont get in your car if you have a fear of covid because you will die in your car before dieing from covid. Its all perspective. No chance in the world 335,000,000 people will be tested before economy opens. 1000s will die from poverty,suicides and many other things  if thats the case.

Edited April 12, 2020 by rtazz17

[livingonthebeach]

1 minute ago, rtazz17 said:

Vaccine will never ever ever be released unless its 100% safe to public. That is a guarantee. Thats why it will be at minimum a year and prolly 2-3.....  

 

In a perfect world and during normal times yes -- bear in mind that these are anything other than normal times and emergency orders are in place.  Already, many regulations have been relaxed during this pandemic and I foresee many more.  99% might be the new 100% -- no one knows.  The whole world is working in concert to produce a vaccine faster than in ordinary times.  We might just get one quicker than in 2 to 3 years, as you predict.  

[Ocean Boy]

1 hour ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Unfortunately, it might just come to the point where we are put in the incredibly difficult decision of having to choose between a vaccine we don't feel entirely comfortable with or choking our economy to levels never seen since the Great Depression.  

I don't know about "we", but you can put whatever you want in your body.