100 more days

[Ocean Boy]

19 minutes ago, toastysailor said:

 

I personally will probably stay away unless they have good testing of passengers prior to boarding.  I don't mean taking a temperature; like I said, people can be asymptomatic.  I mean something like a cheek swab that turns red if you have COVID-19 or another virus.  A real way to test, to prove that everyone getting on the cruise are free from the virus.

How long have you been cruising and how many times have you become sick in a cruise? If that is the type of assurance you want you might want to consider staying home. And be careful in the grocery store. People touch all types of items in there and then put them back. You don't know what you are coming in contact with when you touch something, or breath the air, in there.

[bonsai3s]

21 minutes ago, toastysailor said:

I personally also think there will be a number of changes.

 

Remember that COVID-19 affects you on a ship whether you get it or not.  Someone comes down with COVID-19, and you are going to be quarantined along with the whole ship.  Even if you never get it, expect immediate end of your wonderful cruise, followed by quarantine.  Ouch!

 

I often stayed away from Windjammer as it was, after seeing what children and some adults do at the food stations.  I would applaud having servers fill your plate, rather than self-serve.  I don't want to touch a serving spoon when the prior passenger may-or-may-not have washed their hands or wiped their nose.

 

What about social distancing?  Lounges and theatres are packed; if someone is sick, and is asymptomatic, there is no way for you to know until they come down with it half-way through the cruise.

 

I personally will probably stay away unless they have good testing of passengers prior to boarding.  I don't mean taking a temperature; like I said, people can be asymptomatic.  I mean something like a cheek swab that turns red if you have COVID-19 or another virus.  A real way to test, to prove that everyone getting on the cruise are free from the virus.

 

Great points...agree with all your comments...but then I got to thinkin'...

 

"to prove that everyone getting on the cruise are free from the virus".

 

What about the crew?...will they be tested weekly or at every turn around?

How do we make sure the testing is accurate?...hate to tell a passenger at the cruise terminal "Mam/Sir, you can't board".

What about coming back from ports?...new test?...what if they are positive, will they send them home in the middle of the cruise?

Speaking of turn around days...most cabin stewards are overwhelmed to get cabins ready for the next set of passengers...will they have a new way to clean/sanitize the cabins?

What about all the supplies coming on board?...how do we know each item is virus free?

All the luggages that went through the airlines, coming from different cities and or countries...how do we ensure those are virus free?

 

Just asking nicely...just my thoughts...disclosure: We love cruising...so we are willing to be one of the first ones to be the "guinea pigs" and won't mind cruising when it comes back. 

 

 

 

 

[firefox247]

I think there will be changes in the short term, but people (and companies and the government) have short memories. Once this becomes like Ebola, Zola, etc. where cases are rare, I fully expect things to mostly go back to normal. 

[Milwaukee Eight]

17 minutes ago, firefox247 said:

I think there will be changes in the short term, but people (and companies and the government) have short memories. Once this becomes like Ebola, Zola, etc. where cases are rare, I fully expect things to mostly go back to normal. 

One can’t compare COVID19 to Ebola. COVID19 is easily spread from person to person while Ebola required physical contact with infected animal and/or person with a break in skin. 
 

The Ebola virus is transmitted among humans through close and direct physical contact with infected bodily fluids, the most infectious being blood, faeces and vomit. 
 

COVID19 is a SARS Virus and can be airborne. 

 

[cruiselvr04]

I think there may be changes in cruises until a vaccine is developed.  After that I predict it will return to the way it was.  They could make you prove vaccination at that point. Even though no vaccine is 100% it would greatly reduce the ships risk of quarantine.  

 

 

I’n hoping to return to cruising this fall but time will tell....we’ll have to make a decision by the beginning of July as that’s when final payment is due.  Hoping for some clarity by then.  If things are up in the air we may cancel as it’s refundable.  However I really want to go!  

 

 

 

[firefox247]

15 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

One can’t compare COVID19 to Ebola. COVID19 is easily spread from person to person while Ebola required physical contact with infected animal and/or person with a break in skin. 
 

The Ebola virus is transmitted among humans through close and direct physical contact with infected bodily fluids, the most infectious being blood, faeces and vomit. 
 

COVID19 is a SARS Virus and can be airborne. 

 

 

To be honest, I think this kind of proves my point.  Back when Ebola was a thing, there was massive panic about it.  In terms of hysteria/panic/etc., people were very worried about it.  Now we look back and say, "Gee, Ebola is pretty rare and hard to get.  Perhaps it isn't worth upending our lives to protect ourselves from it."

 

I expect the same thing will happen here.  I believe there will be short-term band-aids from the cruise lines to appease the government and convince passengers to re-board.  After a vaccine comes out, I believe they will either (mostly) roll back everything to the way things were before and just mandate the vaccine, or if pressure is off the cruise lines by then, they might just waive that requirement and revert anyway.

 

People are already complaining about cruise prices going up (just look around the forum this evening), and for many people, it no longer is the quasi all-inclusive experience that it once was.  If Royal increases fares by 50% or something to pay for all these improved sanitation measures, additional staff, boats/shows less full, etc., I simply do not believe people will sail.

 

The concepts of "social distancing" are simply impossible on a cruise ship with the current model.  Royal can't even stop the crew from getting it, and there are no passengers on-board.  I believe Royal wants to avoid long-term price increases (or profit reductions) by whatever means necessary, so I think they will roll the dice if the government lets them.  For now, they are not, but we will see if that sticks as this fades from the headlines.

Edited April 12, 2020 by firefox247

[mek]

1 hour ago, toastysailor said:

I personally also think there will be a number of changes.

 

Remember that COVID-19 affects you on a ship whether you get it or not.  Someone comes down with COVID-19, and you are going to be quarantined along with the whole ship.  Even if you never get it, expect immediate end of your wonderful cruise, followed by quarantine.  Ouch!

 

I often stayed away from Windjammer as it was, after seeing what children and some adults do at the food stations.  I would applaud having servers fill your plate, rather than self-serve.  I don't want to touch a serving spoon when the prior passenger may-or-may-not have washed their hands or wiped their nose.

 

What about social distancing?  Lounges and theatres are packed; if someone is sick, and is asymptomatic, there is no way for you to know until they come down with it half-way through the cruise.

 

I personally will probably stay away unless they have good testing of passengers prior to boarding.  I don't mean taking a temperature; like I said, people can be asymptomatic.  I mean something like a cheek swab that turns red if you have COVID-19 or another virus.  A real way to test, to prove that everyone getting on the cruise are free from the virus.

So they will test everyone in each port and every time they board the ship?  I can't imagine how that would ever happen.

[twins_to_alaska]

2 hours ago, toastysailor said:

I personally will probably stay away unless they have good testing of passengers prior to boarding.  I don't mean taking a temperature; like I said, people can be asymptomatic.  I mean something like a cheek swab that turns red if you have COVID-19 or another virus.  A real way to test, to prove that everyone getting on the cruise are free from the virus.

 

That's still only for that moment in time - pretending that the quick tests will be good enough to catch 90% of the cases... and they aren't close yet - somebody could have been exposed but not testing positive yet... and they could in 1, 2, 3 days after boarding.

Edited April 12, 2020 by twins_to_alaska

[suzyluvs2cruise]

On 4/10/2020 at 2:03 PM, Mikeandliz said:

I bet the CDC pulls that recommendation by Monday.  

 

Care to elaborate on why you think that. 

[suzyluvs2cruise]

1 hour ago, firefox247 said:

I think there will be changes in the short term, but people (and companies and the government) have short memories. Once this becomes like Ebola, Zola, etc. where cases are rare, I fully expect things to mostly go back to normal. 

 

But this isn't like Ebola, Zola, etc when it comes to cruise ships and cruising.

[jlshouston]

On 4/10/2020 at 2:51 AM, molly361 said:

Question is will Royal extend their closure now or wait until the end of the month??  Inquiring minds want to know.  Bye bye May cruise. 😇

My last cruise was Jan 25 on Symphony and I have a short one I was looking forward to on 5/18 on  Independence. So this really means no May cruising. Bummer

[toastysailor]

56 minutes ago, twins_to_alaska said:

 

That's still only for that moment in time - pretending that the quick tests will be good enough to catch 90% of the cases... and they aren't close yet - somebody could have been exposed but not testing positive yet... and they could in 1, 2, 3 days after boarding.

These are all good points.  I agree we don't have tests that are anywhere like what I am saying; what I am saying is that until we get them, I would be nervous.

 

Imagine what happens, in the post-COVID-19 era, when someone becomes sick with COVID-19 on a ship.  Quarantine for all passengers.  Ports refusing entry.

 

So should people be retested every time they reboard?  What happens if we don't?  Would you want someone exposed to COVID-19 allowed back on a ship full of thousands of people they might infect?  Especially if it means quarantine for the whole ship?

 

Yeah, I'm saying there must be changes to how we did things pre-COVID-19.  I'm going to be watching carefully; and for anyone who starts cruising, be aware: the issue is not so much whether you care about getting sick, it is about what happens to the whole ship if someone on your ship gets sick.

[lovemylab]

27 minutes ago, toastysailor said:

 These are all good points.  I agree we don't have tests that are anywhere like what I am saying; what I am saying is that until we get them, I would be nervous.

 

Imagine what happens, in the post-COVID-19 era, when someone becomes sick with COVID-19 on a ship.  Quarantine for all passengers.  Ports refusing entry.

 

So should people be retested every time they reboard?  What happens if we don't?  Would you want someone exposed to COVID-19 allowed back on a ship full of thousands of people they might infect?  Especially if it means quarantine for the whole ship?

 

If you're waiting for them to develop a test that will instantly detect the virus as soon as somone has some in contact with it I think you may have taken your last cruise.  

 

If this magicial test did become available and someone did test positive, I would much rather see them be quarantined onboard vs. being left behind in some foreign port.   

 

If cruiselines were to enforce this ridiculous suggestion very few people would cruise.   

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by lovemylab

[gkbiiii]

1 hour ago, firefox247 said:

 

To be honest, I think this kind of proves my point.  Back when Ebola was a thing, there was massive panic about it.  In terms of hysteria/panic/etc., people were very worried about it.  Now we look back and say, "Gee, Ebola is pretty rare and hard to get.  Perhaps it isn't worth upending our lives to protect ourselves from it."

 

I expect the same thing will happen here.  I believe there will be short-term band-aids from the cruise lines to appease the government and convince passengers to re-board.  After a vaccine comes out, I believe they will either (mostly) roll back everything to the way things were before and just mandate the vaccine, or if pressure is off the cruise lines by then, they might just waive that requirement and revert anyway.

 

People are already complaining about cruise prices going up (just look around the forum this evening), and for many people, it no longer is the quasi all-inclusive experience that it once was.  If Royal increases fares by 50% or something to pay for all these improved sanitation measures, additional staff, boats/shows less full, etc., I simply do not believe people will sail.

 

The concepts of "social distancing" are simply impossible on a cruise ship with the current model.  Royal can't even stop the crew from getting it, and there are no passengers on-board.  I believe Royal wants to avoid long-term price increases (or profit reductions) by whatever means necessary, so I think they will roll the dice if the government lets them.  For now, they are not, but we will see if that sticks as this fades from the headlines.

Yes this is right, about Royal not being a good deal for the money. Example for $4,000 I took a vacation for two, from Miami to Mexico City & Acapulco for ten nights.  This included First Class Airfare on United, & Deluxe First class Bus from Mexcio city, to Acapulco.  Four nights 2/2 Maria Izabel Sheraton Mexico City, in Sheraton Club Lounge room.  Then the Acapulco Princess "Premium Gourmet all inclusive option" Golf view JR Suite.  

https://www.princessmundoimperial.com/default-en.html?msclkid=bf7bf2c3dd771bec3675ac51a7e172a6

 

This is in the pyramid, which Howard Hughes stayed.  I liked all the specialty dining at the Princess and outstanding drinks.  Best resort I have ever been to and the Sheraton in Mexico City was great too.  So for $4,000 with First Class airfare included, could you get the same experience with Royal?  Unlimited specially dining, JR Suite, Premium drink package, etc.?

 

My experience is Royal is poor quality with horrible on-board pricing.  The Fontainebleau Miami Beach (five blocks from where I live) is not higher priced for drinks or dining than Royal: but with Fontainebleau, both are outstanding and highly rated!  A $4,000 week at the Fontainebleau, is a hell of a lot better, than a week with Royal.  Not to mention, the employees at Fontainebleau are very well paid, with strong benefits, with a company that pays all US taxes, unlike Royal Caribbean, which pays its staff little to nothing, and has avoided all taxes (with the exception of Liberian registry fees), so perhaps we should start caring about our own local businesses.  

 

It is time for Americans to start traveling Nationally, and directly to the Caribbean, Canada, and Mexico.  People, not greedy multi-national opaque corporations!

Edited April 12, 2020 by gkbiiii

[johnjen]

13 hours ago, lizzie_m said:

We're going to wait for them to cancel it as well.  Unfortunately we already purchased our airfare on KLM/Delta and will probably lose it.  I don't think we'll be able to use the airline credit before it runs out.

We are so sorry you're facing that about the airfare. All we can do now is hope they cancel our cruise, but they will try sweet talking all of us into their shell game called Future Cruise Credit....no, they can keep their extra 25%.....just give us our money back....all of it, including our deposit. If they don't, I'll be contacting the Federal Trade Commission.

[L454S]

12 hours ago, GarlicBread said:

 

You conveniently cut off the bottom bit of that page...

Only the ships with an asterisk next to it are ships that actively had cases onboard. 

The other ships on the list who had people on them who reported symptoms within 14 days of returing from them, so nobody can say for sure if they are/were "infected ships" or not...

 

You do realize that almost all those cases were brought onboard by someone who flew there in an AIRPLANE while spreading it on the flight and possibly subsequent flights also........yet planes, buses, Amtrac, etc. are continuing to operate as essential.

 

 

[rimmit]

Here is a video summarizing what needs to happen to get back to cruising based on the most recent extension.

 

 

I am not convinced we are cruising anytime soon.  I am betting we are gonna need a vaccine to get cruising up and running again.

 

Not sure if you have been following the Ruby Princess debacle, but I bet that has something to do with it.

[livingonthebeach]

3 hours ago, L454S said:

 

You do realize that almost all those cases were brought onboard by someone who flew there in an AIRPLANE while spreading it on the flight and possibly subsequent flights also........yet planes, buses, Amtrac, etc. are continuing to operate as essential.

 

 

 

I don't know about your area but where I live, every mode of transportation is partially or fully shut down. Social distancing is in effect for any mode of transportation that still operates and gloves and masks are mandated for any travel outside the home and in essential stores.  

 

Most Floridians don't travel by airplane to get to the ports as we have the Port of Miami, Port Everglades, Port Canaveral and Port of Tampa within driving distance. 

Edited April 12, 2020 by livingonthebeach

[Cruise a holic]

17 hours ago, HBE4 said:

 

Just wanted to add: "not thought through, knee-jerk over the top reaction" that seems like a good idea in the heat of the moment but once the smoke clears, not so much. 

 

I predict that next year at this time, we'll be looking back laughing at all the ridiculous predictions being made now.

I predict that next year at this time we will be mourning many friends and relatives.  We missed the boat and should have all been prepared.  

[danv3]

1 hour ago, rimmit said:

I am not convinced we are cruising anytime soon.  I am betting we are gonna need a vaccine to get cruising up and running again.

 

If we're waiting on a vaccine, we may be waiting a long time.  There's no guarantee at all that there will ever be an effective vaccine for this virus.  

 

I think asymptomatic spread and herd immunity are the path to a restoration of normalcy...but we need widespread testing to know when we've reached this point.

[rimmit]

20 minutes ago, danv3 said:

 

If we're waiting on a vaccine, we may be waiting a long time.  There's no guarantee at all that there will ever be an effective vaccine for this virus.  

 

I think asymptomatic spread and herd immunity are the path to a restoration of normalcy...but we need widespread testing to know when we've reached this point.

I agree a vaccine is no guarantee but the fact that there is a low mutation rate is in our favor.  Also outside of HIV and RSV (and RSV May have a vaccine in the next couple years.  Several are in clinical trials right now) there are no other significant diseases that we have thrown a large amount of research dollars into and not created a vaccine for.  With the amount of attention on this now, the fact that the government seems to have cut ALL the FDA red tape it definitely bodes well to get a vaccine in the next 18 months.

In terms of herd immunity,   COVID has an R0=2.5(-ish). For COVID to be stable in the US or for R0<1, the Herd Immunity Threshold needs to be >60% (i.e >60% of the population needs to be immune). Given there is no vaccine, this means 60% of our population would need to get COVID for Herd Immunity to work. US population 327.2 million. 60%= 196.32 million people. If the mortality of COVID is 1% (many current estimates are ballparking that number), this means that 1.96 million Americans would die in order to have herd immunity with no vaccine. Let’s say that the fatality rate is half that or even a quarter given the number of asymptomatic cases.  That’s still 1 million to 500k in American deaths.   We haven’t even extrapolated to the whole world.
 

I personally don’t feel that 500k American deaths (on the absolute lowest end with a 0.25 Percent death rate, Which is WELL below current estimates) is acceptable to reach herd immunity.

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by rimmit

[livingonthebeach]

Interesting article for those contemplating buying, selling or holding cruise stocks:

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/11/why-royal-caribbean-carnival-and-norwegian-cruise.aspx

Edited April 12, 2020 by livingonthebeach

[bouhunter]

8 hours ago, johnjen said:

 I'll be contacting the Federal Trade Commission.

Good luck with that.

[livingonthebeach]

17 minutes ago, rimmit said:

I personally don’t feel that 500k American deaths (on the absolute lowest end with a 0.25 Percent death rate, Which is WELL below current estimates) is acceptable to reach herd immunity.

 

 

True -- I also feel there will be a vaccine and treatment before herd immunity.

[nbsjcruiser]

13 hours ago, firefox247 said:

I think there will be changes in the short term, but people (and companies and the government) have short memories. Once this becomes like Ebola, Zola, etc. where cases are rare, I fully expect things to mostly go back to normal. 

Hope you're right but there is a difference here. Ebola, Zika (I assume you meant Zika) didn't infect worldwide at rates like this. Don't forget that Ebola is not infectious until the person is basically on their death bed so you know they have it and can protect yourself. And Zika death rates are very low. 

 

This virus is much more infectious because of its stealth. I can be standing in a large room crowded with people, healthy, feeling good, no symptoms at all but I could also be spreading this thing to many others in the same room. You are right that people do have short memories but those memories are going to be jogged regularly with every cruise ship that gets contaminated and spends weeks at sea looking for a place to offload sick and dead people. And until there is a vaccine its not a matter of if this will happen, its when. And lets not forget that cruise ships have a much higher rate of older people on them - prime targets for this virus.

 

I don't see how a cruise ship can protect its passengers and crew and this is not to blame cruise ships. The cruise industry has taken a black eye on all this and its not their fault. As long as people are travelling from all over the country and world via cars, planes and trains, the virus is going to have a viable vehicle to travel to the cruise ports. And dont forget cruise ships travel to different countries which makes the complexity of containing this all the more difficult. Even if you could somehow detect sick people before they board on day 1 it wont help. Passengers could be asymptomatic or pick it up in port elsewhere.

 

I like your optimism and I hope for a return to normal too but that's going to take a long time. There will be a few who will jump right back in with both feet but there will be many who are going to wait to see how things go and many who will wait for a vaccine. For my money, a return to normal comes when there is a vaccine and cruise ships make you prove you have it before allowing you on or near a ship.