FDR Says He Expects NCLH To Resume Cruising In Late 2020

[Jancruz]

11 minutes ago, bitob said:

Mr. Del Rio is aspirational but delusional.  There is no way NCL will be able to sail in 2020

 

No wonder he is not on CC any more..

Jancruz1

[bitob]

When u make 18 million a year the little people become less important. 

[RJB]

24 minutes ago, Jancruz said:

No wonder he is not on CC any more..

Jancruz1

Well, when he was on CC years ago real problems on Oceania ships were taken care of when needed.  Did a good job of watching out for us at that time.  Too big a company now.  Better then.

[susiesan]

2 hours ago, Petoonya said:

 

Yeah, unfortunately I just cancelled the tickets. Waaaahhh. Was to do same cruise 4/14/20 and it was cancelled. Now chances of 4/21 look rather dim. Hate to do it to my TA but may give up my O deposit for same cruise too.  Not worth risking more dough.

Thanks to you and everyone.

Why do you think a Tahiti cruise a year from now won't be a go? I have a deposit on a Windstar Tahiti cruise for Jan. 14 and air tickets on United to and from. After reading on TA about French Polynesia opening up by the end of the year I am 50% confident that my cruise will happen. Windstar has new terms about final payments being due 30 days before cruises so I can easily cancel the air tickets (award tix, can have miles redeposited for free) if the cruise is a no go. 

 

Keep an eye on the United ticket prices, they have been going up and down every week. If you have any UA miles , you can get economy awards for 35K each way.

[Petoonya]

18 minutes ago, susiesan said:

Why do you think a Tahiti cruise a year from now won't be a go?

Well....if the Pres/CEO of NCLH says only 1 Oceania ship at the end of the year, and a slow rollout thereafter, I have serious doubts about MY ship possibly being one of the few. Already have doubts about a vaccine being available and adequate precautions being in place for me to feel comfortable. But FDR just about threw the whole thing in the fire. Plus I seem to remember somewhere that FP leadership is advocating that once things begin to open up, only "small" ships will be permitted. Wind Spirit would be small enough and Regatta is not NCL Jewel, but it might not be small enough in FP's eyes. The whole situation sounds less likely than it did even last month- why I guesstimate a 30% chance- and I'm not comfortable with that.

I will keep an eye on United, thank you. Today's price was incredible

Edited May 9, 2020 by Petoonya

[sunlover12]

I'm booked on a FP cruise on Regatta in March 2021.  Normally we book our flights well in advance but won't be doing that this time. We have enough UA miles to cover it but I don't believe demand is going to be strong enough to rush into booking the flight. Like Petoonya, I know that there is a strong possibility that this cruise isn't going to happen. 

[LHT28]

30 minutes ago, Petoonya said:

Well....if the Pres/CEO of NCLH says only 1 Oceania ship at the end of the year, and a slow rollout thereafter, I have serious doubts about MY ship possibly being one of the few.

Maybe cancel the cruise  as well  then  if the ship is ready to sail in Feb  then book the cruise then

You are going to give yourself an ulcer or heart attack with all this worry

No cruise is worth that much stress IMO

[pinotlover]

We have a November cruise booked on Sirena and a late January cruise booked on Marina. We have airfare booked for both. If our Istanbul to Dubai cruise in November is definitely not sailing, then they should cancel before PIF is due late next month. 
 

I’m worried about our very late Jan cruise not going, and that’s nearly 9 months out! Late November is still 6 months away! We’ll have a Presidential election between now and then, but we can’t figure out how to get a cruise ship ready to sail!!!

[njhorseman]

5 hours ago, Shawnino said:

 

As to burden, well that depends on criminal or civil.

In most jurisdictions the criminal burden (something like "beyond reasonable doubt") is heavier than that in a civil action (somewhere between "balance of probabilities" and "clear and convincing proof"). The criminal case would intrigue me. The civil case feels like a slam dunk

In the US, the evidentiary standard for the burden of proof in an ordinary civil case is "preponderance of the evidence", meaning that there is a greater than 50% chance that the claim is true, but proving fraud may require the stronger "clear and convincing evidence".

[Redtravel]

FDR used to run Renaissance Cruises and it went out of business.

[Petoonya]

55 minutes ago, LHT28 said:

Maybe cancel the cruise  as well  then  if the ship is ready to sail in Feb  then book the cruise then

You are going to give yourself an ulcer or heart attack with all this worry

No cruise is worth that much stress IMO

Honest Lyn,

Not so worried as you might perceive. Just hopeful. It's part of the reason I booked the air this morning 🙂 If we go awesome, but like everyone else will be saddened if it doesn't work.

 

But stressed about not being able to see my grandkids 😉 This I might have a stroke or heart attack over!

[clo]

6 hours ago, Shawnino said:

The scandalous part here is that the CEO has already come out and contradicted the proposition, but they're still knowingly taking money from Peter to pay Paul.

 

Sleazy.

[LHT28]

2 hours ago, Redtravel said:

FDR used to run Renaissance Cruises and it went out of business.

Are you implying it was his fault??

[LHT28]

2 hours ago, Petoonya said:

But stressed about not being able to see my grandkids 😉 This I might have a stroke or heart attack over!

I do hope not 😲

Be well

 

 

[Redtravel]

No.  Just stating some history.  

[LHT28]

10 minutes ago, Redtravel said:

No.  Just stating some history.  

 

Your point??

Many people work for  a companies  that subsequently go out of business   but what has it got to do with anything here?

[Paulchili]

5 minutes ago, LHT28 said:

 

Your point??

Many people work for  a companies  that subsequently go out of business   but what has it got to do with anything here?

Agree. Failure of REN was mostly b/o 9/11 as well as some other unfortunate circumstances - a perfect storm.

We’ll see who can make it past this crisis.

[Redtravel]

This pandemic is going to do more damage than 9/11.  9/11 was terrible.  Living in NJ was traumatic when 9/11 happened.  Knew people there and kids who lost relatives.  The pandemic is more frightening.  Huge number of deaths, unemployment, and poverty will outdo what has happened in our lives.  It is not over.  The longer it continues, the more businesses will fail.  Sadly, nobody wants this to happen.  Only time will tell what will happen.  For now, stay home and stay safe.  While worrying about getting basic necessities, I cannot worry about what I cannot control. Everything will be different.

[Queen of DaNile]

17 hours ago, Petoonya said:

Well....if the Pres/CEO of NCLH says only 1 Oceania ship at the end of the year, and a slow rollout thereafter, I have serious doubts about MY ship possibly being one of the few. Already have doubts about a vaccine being available and adequate precautions being in place for me to feel comfortable. But FDR just about threw the whole thing in the fire. Plus I seem to remember somewhere that FP leadership is advocating that once things begin to open up, only "small" ships will be permitted. Wind Spirit would be small enough and Regatta is not NCL Jewel, but it might not be small enough in FP's eyes. The whole situation sounds less likely than it did even last month- why I guesstimate a 30% chance- and I'm not comfortable with that.

I will keep an eye on United, thank you. Today's price was incredible

He didn't exactly say only "1 Oceania ship at the end of the year." If they start the roll out at the end of the third quarter then there might be more Oceania ships out there by the end of the year. From The Points Guy :

 

'"When pressed on when that might happen, Del Rio said his “best answer” is that the company, which operates three brands — Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises — would be in a position to resume sailing “sometime in the third quarter, more likely than not the back end of the third quarter.”

 

Whenever Norwegian gets the go-ahead to resume sailing, it’ll restart operations at a measured pace, Del Rio said. The company might initially start with just five or six of its 28 vessels.

He offers a scenario where just three Norwegian Cruise Line ships resume operations initially along with a single vessel from the Oceania and Regent brands. From there, the company would add another four to six ships into operation each month."

 

[clo]

54 minutes ago, Queen of DaNile said:

Whenever Norwegian gets the go-ahead to resume sailing,

And where does that come from?

[clo]

57 minutes ago, Queen of DaNile said:

Whenever Norwegian gets the go-ahead to resume sailing, it’ll restart operations at a measured pace, Del Rio said. The company might initially start with just five or six of its 28 vessels.

 

I don't know how to copy from another board so I hope I'm not breaking a rule here. This came from @Hlitner

 

"I do not think "imagine" will have anything to do with it!  There is a reality to viruses and bacteria.  Put a few thousand souls together in relatively tight quarters and the odds strongly favor a few folks getting sick.  And consider COVID-19 testing.  One lady in the White House (an aid to the Vice President) was tested every day and always negative.  That was until a few days ago when she tested positive (and she also has symptoms).  The point is that she was negative day after day until one day when she was positive.  There is no telling how many days she was carrying (and possibly shedding) COVID-19 until she finally tested positive.  And therein lies an age old problem for ships.  You can theoretically test everyone for COVID-19, do temperature checks, etc.  and folks may all be fine.  But among those thousands the odds favor one or more who might have been exposed to that virus while traveling to the cruise port.  They will not test positive, will have no symptoms, and no temperature.  But 2-14 days later that virus will show its ugly side.  This is similar to the Norovirus dilemma where the virus is generally carried aboard by one or more passengers/crew who likely got that bug while in transit to the port city.  

 

So my question is actually simple.  What happens when you are on a future cruise and one or more folks get COVID-19?  Until the cruise lines can develop a favorable outcome under those circumstances a good argument can be made that a cruise ship is among the worst places to be.  But as of today, the entire ship would likely go into isolation in their cabins, ports would refuse to accept the ship, and some kind of quarantine period (likely at least 14 days) would begin.  It will not be a question of "will this happen" but the question is "when will this happen?"   And based on what we saw in Feb and March we can assume, with a very high level of reliability, that it will happen within a few days of the resumption of cruising."

 

[Petoonya]

1 hour ago, Queen of DaNile said:

He didn't exactly say only "1 Oceania ship at the end of the year." If they start the roll out at the end of the third quarter then there might be more Oceania ships out there by the end of the year. 

No matter. Even a "few" vessels by the end of the fourth quarter 2020 doesn't give me much confidence that all vessels by the beginning of the second quarter 2021 will be in service. If by next Feb it looks like Regatta is a go, I'll start packing my snorkel gear and buy air. But not counting on it especially with the caution FP is taking in allowing cruise ships to visit.

 

Besides "measured pace" is dependent on the CDC, the interest people have in cruising, the ports who'll allow cruise ships, the vaccine and a host of other pieces that would need to fall into place. That's a lot of stuff. I still hope like anything that those who have cruises in the fall and late 2020 will be able to go.

[jeanine]

When we visited FP we visited all the islands on the Paul Gauguin. It was wonderful. We flew into Papeete stayed in an overwater bungalow before boarding the gorgeous ship. Before the pandemic there were flights from Sfo to Papeete. When we went we had to fly Air Tahiti out of LAX. Was very nice. 
 

[1985rz1]

1 hour ago, Queen of DaNile said:

He didn't exactly say only "1 Oceania ship at the end of the year." If they start the roll out at the end of the third quarter then there might be more Oceania ships out there by the end of the year. From The Points Guy :

 

'"When pressed on when that might happen, Del Rio said his “best answer” is that the company, which operates three brands — Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises — would be in a position to resume sailing “sometime in the third quarter, more likely than not the back end of the third quarter.”

 

Whenever Norwegian gets the go-ahead to resume sailing, it’ll restart operations at a measured pace, Del Rio said. The company might initially start with just five or six of its 28 vessels.

He offers a scenario where just three Norwegian Cruise Line ships resume operations initially along with a single vessel from the Oceania and Regent brands. From there, the company would add another four to six ships into operation each month."

 

Thanks for posting this.  It's a more balanced description of the interview than the isolated sound bites that some folks have focussed on.  The bottom line is that their planning is a work in progress and at this point they don't have a final strategy, except for pacing their refunds to match their resources (remaining personnel who haven't been furloughed and new infusions of cash). Simplistic solutions sound great, but they are in not practical in the world of large, complex corpirations.

 

DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a travel agent, nor do I work for any cruise line.  I'm just an ordinary retiree who loves to travel and likes cruising. 🌎🗼🛫⛴☺

Edited May 10, 2020 by 1985rz1

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, clo said:

And where does that come from?

I'm not sure if this is a rhetorical question, but in case it's not, the answer is the CDC for cruises operating in US waters, even if that just means embarking or disembarking passengers without any port calls , and the approval of any other countries that may either be ports of call or embarkation/disembarkation ports .