Future cruises at 50% capacity thoughts?

[tallnthensome]

There has been talk as we all know that future cruises may sail at 50% or reduced capacity whenever they start again. That may be late this year or early next year. I’ve read articles where some thought they might leave every other cabin open or book only balconies. I still have a couple Cruises booked for next year with deposits, one on the Encore in April around spring break. If the lines agree to sail with these reductions what do you think will happen to our bookings/sailings that are already booked above 50% like maybe spring break ones may be already? Any thoughts what they would do ? Do they just cancel some peoples bookings to get the numbers down? Do they change your cabin location to meet the spacing guidelines? What do you think they will do? 

[ECCruise]

If it is like some of the airlines, they said they would block out the middle seats. 

Until they sold them.  And now they won't guarantee the middle seats won't be filled.

 

[luv2kroooz]

They could do what airlines do when a flight is oversold....look for volunteers/offer future credit or involuntarily bump people. I don't think they'll limit occupancy to 50% though. It would be bad news for passengers from an economic standpoint. Prices would have to adjust upward, but you'd have more room onboard.

[tallnthensome]

24 minutes ago, blcruising said:

It would be bad news for passengers from an economic standpoint. Prices would have to adjust upward, but you'd have more room onboard.

Oh, you know prices would jump. Everyone else would have to subsidize those other empty cabins and lost profit. 

[npcl]

38 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

There has been talk as we all know that future cruises may sail at 50% or reduced capacity whenever they start again. That may be late this year or early next year. I’ve read articles where some thought they might leave every other cabin open or book only balconies. I still have a couple Cruises booked for next year with deposits, one on the Encore in April around spring break. If the lines agree to sail with these reductions what do you think will happen to our bookings/sailings that are already booked above 50% like maybe spring break ones may be already? Any thoughts what they would do ? Do they just cancel some peoples bookings to get the numbers down? Do they change your cabin location to meet the spacing guidelines? What do you think they will do? 

I suspect that the cruises people have booked will not look anything like the cruises that actually end up sailing.  The reduced capacity cruises are likely to be totally different itineraries.

[CruiseMH]

If i would be NCL i would check who has paid the smallest amount of money for their booking and i would cancel their bookings. Then i would have to refund a rather small amount of money. Also they might be able to reduce the number of crew as well. Cause for 50 % of the passengers they do not need 100% of crew.

The prices will increase for sure.

[tallnthensome]

6 minutes ago, npcl said:

I suspect that the cruises people have booked will not look anything like the cruises that actually end up sailing.  The reduced capacity cruises are likely to be totally different itineraries.

Do you suspect most future cruises will be changed before then? 

Edited May 14, 2020 by tallnthensome

[tallnthensome]

1 minute ago, CruiseMH said:

If i would be NCL i would check who has paid the smallest amount of money for their booking and i would cancel their bookings. Then i would have to refund a rather small amount of money. Also they might be able to reduce the number of crew as well. Cause for 50 % of the passengers they do not need 100% of crew.

The prices will increase for sure.

Yes I agree. You would need less crew, less food, less alcohol .... less of everything .

[Roger88]

Not possible in my opinion. Those cruisers fit over 1000 people each. It wont make a difference 500 or 1000. Moreover, due to the huge loss of money, none of them is willing to limit their chances to recover with the high demand. So in my opinion nothing will change in this matter

[tallnthensome]

1 minute ago, Roger88 said:

Not possible in my opinion. Those cruisers fit over 1000 people each. It wont make a difference 500 or 1000. Moreover, due to the huge loss of money, none of them is willing to limit their chances to recover with the high demand. So in my opinion nothing will change in this matter

 But what if they are forced into these guidelines? Well, it’s over 4000 on the newer ships so 2000 less people makes a lot of space on the Encore and Bliss. 

[boatseller]

The Encore transatlantic was booked well below maximum, apparently intentionally.  The did the same with Bliss I understand.  I presume it's to minimize the problems if something unusual happened.

 

The ship felt like a port day every day.  I loved it.  Of course, she was fully staffed so service was top notch.

 

If bookings are limited to ~50%, I would expect the hotel crew compliment to be adjusted accordingly.  That will save a lot of money resulting in either small profits or at least far less losses than a laid up ship.

[4774Papa]

I don't know enough about where the cruise line's break even point is for making a profit?  I suspect that 50% would be below break even point.  However, what is the cruise line's loss if the ship is parked somewhere with a skeleton crew?

 

I suspect that the cruise lines might be happy to start cruising in late Summer with 50% capacity, but not in 2021.

 

Also, if social distancing was strictly followed, 50% would probably be too much. Imagine how you would space attendees at the evening entertainment in the theatre.  Imagine the buffet with half normal attendance (probably still to many people too close to each other).  

 

Still, if there is a widely available vaccine, then why do any limitation?

[Buford T Justiice]

2 hours ago, CruiseMH said:

If i would be NCL i would check who has paid the smallest amount of money for their booking and i would cancel their bookings. Then i would have to refund a rather small amount of money. Also they might be able to reduce the number of crew as well. Cause for 50 % of the passengers they do not need 100% of crew.

The prices will increase for sure.

 

 

I agree.  Maybe NCL can also incorporate an algorithm to take into account customers onboard spend.

[FLAHAM]

Allowing six feet of space around each passenger, that's one passenger in an elevator at a time and one person in a hallway at a time.  

[disneykins]

10 minutes ago, FLAHAM said:

Allowing six feet of space around each passenger, that's one passenger in an elevator at a time and one person in a hallway at a time.  

Maybe elevator operators like in the old days, to limit the number of passengers. Only allow handicapped to use elevators, must have a handicapped sticker like you have for parking your car?

In the hallways  have one way signs like at the grocery stores? Same with staircases.

Assigned seating at the theatre so they can cover the unused seats.

Of course if you've already had Covid or got the eventual shot, whats going to make you conform to these rules? There's always someone who thinks the rules don't apply to them.

I thought I read once that the ships need to sail at close to 100% to break even, they make all their profit from on board sales, hence the high pressure sales and higher prices for booze, excursions, etc.

I still think they would rather sail half full and have some income to tide them over until things get back close to what they were. Someday. Maybe.

[Paul Bogle]

There are already cruise lines that operate this way. They are the luxury brands. The mass market ships cannot make money sailing half full. It's possible some ships might sail half full initially as cruising comes back but it is not a viable business model for these ships.

[tallnthensome]

Time to start building higher atriums so they can install escalators like the malls. In a slowing moving packed elevator is the last place I’d want to be. I’d try and hold my breath the whole ride. 

[npcl]

3 hours ago, tallnthensome said:

Do you suspect most future cruises will be changed before then? 

Yes.  When they start it will probably be short itineraries (5 days or less) maybe going to the various cruise lines private islands and maybe another port.  This will be due to a number of ports still being closed, as well as the keeping the cruise length short to reduce the chance of someone developing symptoms on board and creating a COVID related issue.

 

So the might grab any of those that already exist, but most booked cruises are longer and would probably not fit.

[tallnthensome]

14 minutes ago, Paul Bogle said:

There are already cruise lines that operate this way. They are the luxury brands. The mass market ships cannot make money sailing half full. It's possible some ships might sail half full initially as cruising comes back but it is not a viable business model for these ships.

Probably not .... they would definitely want people on the ship buying drink packages, using specialty dining, taking ship shore excursions, gambling, shopping, etc. The last people the lines want are people that do the opposite of the above. Buy a cruise ticket and spend a total of $8.14  on board being super frugal . 

Edited May 14, 2020 by tallnthensome

[tallnthensome]

Just now, npcl said:

Yes.  When they start it will probably be short itineraries (5 days or less) maybe going to the various cruise lines private islands and maybe another port.  This will be due to a number of ports still being closed, as well as the keeping the cruise length short to reduce the chance of someone developing symptoms on board and creating a COVID related issue.

 

So the might grab any of those that already exist, but most booked cruises are longer and would probably not fit.

This I am in total agreement with. They won’t sail cruises more than 7 days . Less chance of infection and certainly less chance of someone dying onboard and making the news happening in 7 days. You won’t see longer cruisers like 15 days and over for a while I would  guess. 

[d9704011]

7 minutes ago, npcl said:

Yes.  When they start it will probably be short itineraries (5 days or less) maybe going to the various cruise lines private islands and maybe another port.  This will be due to a number of ports still being closed, as well as the keeping the cruise length short to reduce the chance of someone developing symptoms on board and creating a COVID related issue.

 

So the might grab any of those that already exist, but most booked cruises are longer and would probably not fit.

Ha!  Keep it short so people won’t develop symptoms onboard.  I’m thinking that getting home to New York, London or Toronto and becoming deathly ill the next day may lead to negative consequences as far as cruising goes.

[Paul Bogle]

3 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

This I am in total agreement with. They won’t sail cruises more than 7 days . Less chance of infection and certainly less chance of someone dying onboard and making the news happening in 7 days. You won’t see longer cruisers like 15 days and over for a while I would  guess. 

 

I think this is right but for the opposite reason. I think the cruise lines will exercise extreme caution when boarding passengers, taking temperatures and requiring doctors letters etc. The problem is that infected people can be a-symptomatic for a week or more. Keeping itineraries shorter than a week makes an outbreak onboard less likely. It doesn't do much to reduce likelihood of infection.

[tallnthensome]

2 minutes ago, Paul Bogle said:

 

Keeping itineraries shorter than a week makes an outbreak onboard less likely. It doesn't do much to reduce likelihood of infection.

Yes, that is the better way of putting it. 

[seaman11]

looking foward to slipping into hot tubs easier 

[mugtech]

44 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

Time to start building higher atriums so they can install escalators like the malls. In a slowing moving packed elevator is the last place I’d want to be. I’d try and hold my breath the whole ride. 

Here in the Philippines people who use escalators in malls must allow 3 empty steps between riders, must social distance standing in line to use said escalators.  Could not imagine that on a cruise ships.  Elevators here have a max capacity of 4 people in the 4 corners of the car, not likely useable on a cruise ship.