Port Reopenings After Vaccine?

[Daniel A]

I think there are two main factors that need to be addressed before cruising gets back to 'normal' - availability of a vaccine and open ports to sail to. After a vaccine becomes available to the masses, how long do you think it will take for ports to reopen?

[skynight]

My hope is almost normal by 2022. 

[voljeep]

phase 1 - no vaccine but rapid (5) minute testing - 25% capacity - thermal scans at every get on, get off - no self-serve buffet - 4-5 day cruises from USA east and west coasts

 

OCT 1, 2020, NOV 1, 2020 latest 🥃🦄🛳️

[USCcruisecrazy]

1 hour ago, voljeep said:

phase 1 - no vaccine but rapid (5) minute testing - 25% capacity - thermal scans at every get on, get off - no self-serve buffet - 4-5 day cruises from USA east and west coasts

 

OCT 1, 2020, NOV 1, 2020 latest 🥃🦄🛳️

I think this may be a pretty accurate depection of the near future in cruising...but I offer one caveat to the 25% capacity.  Let's assume before a vaccine ever gets on line (if one ever does) that an accurate anti-body test is confirmed.  Yes, I know they have some now, but ,many are rather inaccurate.  You can require folks to show they have the antibodies, which currently would suggest they have no real risk of catching or carrying the virus.  Everything else I agree with...no self serve buffet, shorter cruises, and potentially limited shows/events...and of course use of your app to order drinks so no lines at the bars!!

[donaldsc]

1 hour ago, voljeep said:

phase 1 - no vaccine but rapid (5) minute testing - 25% capacity - thermal scans at every get on, get off - no self-serve buffet - 4-5 day cruises from USA east and west coasts

 

OCT 1, 2020, NOV 1, 2020 latest 🥃🦄🛳️

 

Here is the problem w both of your point -

 

1) the current rapid tests have a large number of false negatives and until they are improved they are not worth much

 

2) Numerous studies have shown that the thermal scans miss far more people who have Covid than they find and are also worthless.  

 

DON

[voljeep]

4 minutes ago, donaldsc said:

 

Here is the problem w both of your point -

 

1) the current rapid tests have a large number of false negatives and until they are improved they are not worth much

 

2) Numerous studies have shown that the thermal scans miss far more people who have Covid than they find and are also worthless.  

 

DON

of course … there will NEVER be a 100% accuracy of ANY KIND OF TESTING, DUH !!!!!

 

I'm will to take that risk … clearly others are not 

 

I don't plan to live in a bubble the rest of my life 

[dog]

17 minutes ago, voljeep said:

of course … there will NEVER be a 100% accuracy of ANY KIND OF TESTING, DUH !!!!!

 

I'm will to take that risk … clearly others are not 

 

I don't plan to live in a bubble the rest of my life 

my opinion: when cruises start up people will cruise without vaccine or testing

 

. Look at the news in the past week- thousands on the streets, some without masks, social distancing ignored. Oh the pandemic is still here. 
 

[LACruiser88]

I think ports and cruising will start-up long before there is a vaccine in place...

[jennybenny]

32 minutes ago, LACruiser88 said:

I think ports and cruising will start-up long before there is a vaccine in place...

I really hope that's the case. Fingers crossed!!

[waltd]

What is the break even point for the Cruise Lines.   I think it is more then 25%.     Will not be sailing  ships unless they make money. 

[voljeep]

1 minute ago, waltd said:

What is the break even point for the Cruise Lines.   I think it is more then 25%.     Will not be sailing  ships unless they make money. 

these 25% cruises are not designed to "make money" … rather, stop the bleeding,  show cruises 'can' be safe , and regain consumer confidence 

[lx200gps]

9 minutes ago, waltd said:

What is the break even point for the Cruise Lines.   I think it is more then 25%.     Will not be sailing  ships unless they make money. 

I believe it's been mentioned a number of times here on CC that cruise lines can "break even" with maybe as little as 30% occupancy with their bigger ships, but need closer to 50% for the smaller ships.

[waltd]

49 minutes ago, voljeep said:

these 25% cruises are not designed to "make money" … rather, stop the bleeding,  show cruises 'can' be safe , and regain consumer confidence 

Never going to happen.   Stop who's bleeding.    They are not going to go deeper into debt to regain anyone's confidence.   Once the pandemic is figured out the ships will be full again.

[Daniel A]

I personally think most (not all) cruisers are likely to wait until there is an effective vaccine available and there are ports to sail to and assurances that they won't be quarantined on the ship because one crew member/passenger has a cough...

[Roger88]

17 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

I personally think most (not all) cruisers are likely to wait until there is an effective vaccine available and there are ports to sail to and assurances that they won't be quarantined on the ship because one crew member/passenger has a cough...

They cant wait forever, yes, big companies can survive like a year of doing nothing but even they will be in deep debts if they dont figure out the way to start cruising soon. Its the reality of modern days. You either try to adopt and survive or you go out of business. Simple as that 

[Daniel A]

5 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

They cant wait forever, yes, big companies can survive like a year of doing nothing but even they will be in deep debts if they dont figure out the way to start cruising soon. Its the reality of modern days. You either try to adopt and survive or you go out of business. Simple as that 

Oh, there will be a good number of cruisers eager to get on the ships as soon as CDC allows it much like the scenes at beaches with people not distancing and wearing masks, but the demographic of Princess' customer base is an older crowd.  I don't think the masses of cruisers are likely to be beating the doors down to get on early cruises.  I think they will wait until they are 100% satisfied that it's "safe to get back into the water..."  I hope the early cruises prove to be safe and they rebuild the confidence of the public.

[Potstech]

4 hours ago, USCcruisecrazy said:

I think this may be a pretty accurate depection of the near future in cruising...but I offer one caveat to the 25% capacity.  Let's assume before a vaccine ever gets on line (if one ever does) that an accurate anti-body test is confirmed.  Yes, I know they have some now, but ,many are rather inaccurate.  You can require folks to show they have the antibodies, which currently would suggest they have no real risk of catching or carrying the virus.  Everything else I agree with...no self serve buffet, shorter cruises, and potentially limited shows/events...and of course use of your app to order drinks so no lines at the bars!!

Having the antibodies does not mean they can not be a carrier.

[Dbld777]

With current news reports of the Covid virus mutating similar to the regular influenza, a vaccine will be about as effective as the current flu vaccine, 40-50% effective and will require an annual shot. The vaccine is not going to prevent transmission completely.

[dog]

2 hours ago, voljeep said:

these 25% cruises are not designed to "make money" … rather, stop the bleeding,  show cruises 'can' be safe , and regain consumer confidence 

I see them charging for more things on-board. Ie: room service, pub lunch, seminars/ entertainment. Maybe even upgraded cabin amenities and dropping the elite/ platinum benefits.   They will get the

money out of us. My April 2021 cruise is a reasonable price whereas, the same cruise in fall 2021 is quite abit more 

[oskidunker]

1 hour ago, Dbld777 said:

With current news reports of the Covid virus mutating similar to the regular influenza, a vaccine will be about as effective as the current flu vaccine, 40-50% effective and will require an annual shot. The vaccine is not going to prevent transmission completely.

 

58 minutes ago, dog said:

I see them charging for more things on-board. Ie: room service, pub lunch, seminars/ entertainment. Maybe even upgraded cabin amenities and dropping the elite/ platinum benefits.   They will get the

money out of us. My April 2021 cruise is a reasonable price whereas, the same cruise in fall 2021 is quite abit more 

The mutations likely won’t interfere with the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine.

In fact, the slow and mild nature of the mutations is good news for a vaccine.

“The virus is still so similar now to the initial sequence that there isn’t really much reason to think the differences will matter in terms of vaccine“

[Hlitner]

Whenever I see a post like this I cannot help but ask a simple question, What if there is never a safe/effective vaccine?  My skepticism comes from working in the government health insurance industry and seeing many promised vaccines simply melt away once they get into Stage 2 and 3 testing.  I know we are all hearing a lot of optimism about a vaccine and I pray that scientists are successful.  But many of these same folks were telling us (over thirty years ago) about an AIDS vaccine.  And there is also the minor fact that science has never been able to develop any vaccine that works against a Coronovirus.

 

Hank

[npcl]

4 hours ago, waltd said:

What is the break even point for the Cruise Lines.   I think it is more then 25%.     Will not be sailing  ships unless they make money. 

In the short term they do not need to make money on cruises.  They need enough people to believe that cruises will return to normal in the next year or so.  If they succeed at that then they get the bookings, deposits that will allow them to survive. As far as the near term cruises go break even or even at a loss is ok as long as they get positive PR from the fact that cruises are going.

[npcl]

57 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Whenever I see a post like this I cannot help but ask a simple question, What if there is never a safe/effective vaccine?  My skepticism comes from working in the government health insurance industry and seeing many promised vaccines simply melt away once they get into Stage 2 and 3 testing.  I know we are all hearing a lot of optimism about a vaccine and I pray that scientists are successful.  But many of these same folks were telling us (over thirty years ago) about an AIDS vaccine.  And there is also the minor fact that science has never been able to develop any vaccine that works against a Coronovirus.

 

Hank

Actually they have been able to develop vaccines against Coronovirus.  The reason that they have never made it to market are primarily for two reasons.  Several of the leading candidates are built on technology first used on SARS candidates.

 

1. In those case where the illness was serious enough such as MERS and SARS, the outbreaks were stopped before testing was completed.  No outbreak, no trials, no approved product.  As well as no market for a vaccine for a illness that no longer really  exists.

 

2. Most Coronovirus related illness are relatively minor.  So not much market for a vaccine. Especially when considering that the common cold, can be caused by any one of dozens of Coronovirus and Rhinovirus types.  Not much market for a vaccine for the common cold when one would need to take a different vaccine for each type, as well as would need to do it each year.

 

So this is pretty much in the sweet spot, it has bad enough effects and due to the number of mild and asymptomatic cases is not going to be stopped by the practices that stopped SARS and MERS.

 

More money and effort has been spent already on a COVID-19 vaccine, than all of the efforts to date on an HIV vaccine.  While there have been some efforts by big pharma on an aids vaccine (MERCK/STEP for example) most of the work on an AIDS vaccine has been done by smaller biotech firms, government agencies and non-profit firms.  An aids vaccine is difficult both in how it operates (attacking the immune system itself) and the fact that it rapidly mutates  Neither an issue with COVID-19.

 

I have no doubt that we will get effective vaccines in the next year or two.  The biggest concern is how often one will have to get re-vaccinated.  I suspect that even without mutation the immunity will not last longer then a year, and may last less.

 

My biggest fear is that we have not seen how COVID-19 acts during second infections (after initial immunity wears off).  There are some viruses where a second infection is worse than the first. Dengue fever is a good example.  Sanofi found out the hard way with its Dengue fever vaccine.

 

If there is not an effective vaccine then one has to hope for an effective therapeutic.

 

Edited June 5, 2020 by npcl

[Hlitner]

12 minutes ago, npcl said:

Actually they have been able to develop vaccines against Coronovirus.  The reason that they have never made it to market are primarily for two reasons.  Several of the leading candidates are built on technology first used on SARS candidates.

 

1. In those case where the illness was serious enough such as MERS and SARS, the outbreaks were stopped before testing was completed.  No outbreak, no trials, no approved product.  As well as no market for a vaccine for a illness that no longer really  exists.

 

2. Most Coronovirus related illness are relatively minor.  So not much market for a vaccine. Especially when considering that the common cold, can be caused by any one of dozens of Coronovirus and Rhinovirus types.  Not much market for a vaccine for the common cold when one would need to take a different vaccine for each type, as well as would need to do it each year.

 

So this is pretty much in the sweet spot, it has bad enough effects and due to the number of mild and asymptomatic cases is not going to be stopped by the practices that stopped SARS and MERS.

 

More money and effort has been spent already on a COVID-19 vaccine, than all of the efforts to date on an HIV vaccine.  While there have been some efforts by big pharma on an aids vaccine (MERCK/STEP for example) most of the work on an AIDS vaccine has been done by smaller biotech firms, government agencies and non-profit firms.  An aids vaccine is difficult both in how it operates (attacking the immune system itself) and the fact that it rapidly mutates  Neither an issue with COVID-19.

 

I have no doubt that we will get effective vaccines in the next year or two.  The biggest concern is how often one will have to get re-vaccinated.  I suspect that even without mutation the immunity will not last longer then a year, and may last less.

 

My biggest fear is that we have not seen how COVID-19 acts during second infections (after initial immunity wears off).  There are some viruses where a second infection is worse than the first. Dengue fever is a good example.  Sanofi found out the hard way with its Dengue fever vaccine.

 

You sound well informed on vaccines and I do not disagree with most of what you said.  We could add that the research done on HIV/Aids vaccines has led to a lot of newer understanding of viruses and anti-virus vaccines/drugs.  That being said, many viruses are very difficult to prevent.    In recent days we have already heard about a potentially huge problem with a COVID-19 vaccine.  We simply do not know enough how the body reacts to COVID-19 antibodies.  Vaccines generally work by creating antibodies but now there is new concern that the antibodies might actually be causing some kind of immune reaction that is just not understood.  It is feared that this is what is happening to the children who develop Kawaskai-like syndromes and some adults who later present with heart damage.  There are a lot of unknowns which normally would demand lots of additional testing and study.  But we keep hearing from politicians (and some scientists) that we may have a vaccine within a few months.  My reaction is that those are the first folks that should get that vaccine and then we can watch and wait.  A bad vaccine could do a lot more harm then the actual virus so we need to be sure.

 

Personally I am very pro vaccine.  We ran out and got the Shingles vaccines (both of them) ASAP, the various pneumococcal vaccines, etc.  I am among the first to get the boosted senior dose flu shot every year.  But I am not so sure I want to among the first to get a relatively untested COVID-19 vaccine even though I am in one of the higher risk groups.   The difficult decision will be whether 6 months or even a year of testing is long enough!  Darned if I know, but it is a concern.

 

Hank

[PrincessLuver]

4 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

You sound well informed on vaccines and I do not disagree with most of what you said.  We could add that the research done on HIV/Aids vaccines has led to a lot of newer understanding of viruses and anti-virus vaccines/drugs.  That being said, many viruses are very difficult to prevent.    In recent days we have already heard about a potentially huge problem with a COVID-19 vaccine.  We simply do not know enough how the body reacts to COVID-19 antibodies.  Vaccines generally work by creating antibodies but now there is new concern that the antibodies might actually be causing some kind of immune reaction that is just not understood.  It is feared that this is what is happening to the children who develop Kawaskai-like syndromes and some adults who later present with heart damage.  There are a lot of unknowns which normally would demand lots of additional testing and study.  But we keep hearing from politicians (and some scientists) that we may have a vaccine within a few months.  My reaction is that those are the first folks that should get that vaccine and then we can watch and wait.  A bad vaccine could do a lot more harm then the actual virus so we need to be sure.

 

Hank

 

I agree with your thinking.....we are hearing more and more that there may be no vaccine for COVID-19 anytime soon and that the world is averaging 100,000 cases a day.  The US has been averaging around a 1,000 deaths a day and our numbers of rate of infection are still alarming.

 

What I would really like to see before a vaccine is an effective form of treatment.  I would have no problem getting on a ship if I knew that if I contacted COVID-19 that there was a readily available treatment that did not require hospitalization.  The fact that they have not even come up with any kind of effective treatment makes me think that a vaccine is going to be even more challenging.  There are many places in the world where they are working on both of these issue but no break through yet.

 

Cruising may just not come back at all or will be too risky a proposition that the cruise lines will be very limited in what they can offer to passengers.  I doubt cruise lines are going to want to take the chance of having a COVID-19 breakout on one of their ships again.