Place an imaginary bet here , When will Celebrity start up?

[yorky]

18 minutes ago, jonthomas said:

Just cant imagine any cruise line still being viable if they dont sail in 2021. 

I’m absolutely sure there will be plenty of sailings next year, we’ve just decided we don’t want to be on one in the first couple of months. I would have left ours where it was if it had been next summer.

[jonthomas]

When I see rates of covid begin to significantly  come down, I will be much more optimistic.

[Fouremco]

1 hour ago, jonthomas said:

Just cant imagine any cruise line still being viable if they dont sail in 2021. 

I'm sure they will at some point next year, but exactly when and under what conditions are two of the big unknowns. We L&P'd a March 2021 cruise as soon as the policy was announced, and we have had no second thoughts whatsoever about our decision.

[phoenix_dream]

6 hours ago, Babr said:

Please don’t be offended by comments critical of the US. I don’t think any are aimed at you personally.

 

As a country, I do think we have to admit that some things have gone horribly wrong, both with leadership and with citizens’ responses. Perhaps we can begin to turn things around if we can recognize the problems.

I don't think they are aimed at me at all.  But I nevertheless find it offensive as a US citizen with so many feeling it necessary to make comments and insults telling us how bad we have done.   I also am not arguing that we did or did not handle things appropriately.  I think some believe I am but I truly am not.  My point is  - this is a forum about cruising, not a forum to debate how the US has handled the situation.  Heaven knows there are plenty of other forums to do that.  Facebook is full of them.  I know we are in a bad spot and I know it needs to be fixed in order for sailing to resume out of the US.  But I don't need our errors (real and perceived) rubbed in my face over and over when I log into Cruise Critic.

[ikelmay]

The focus on how the U.S. is handling the epidemic is important though, as U.S. cruisers form such a big percentage of the cruising market.  If we are still seeing a prolonged rolling first wave of the pandemic then there is zero chance of cruising starting until numbers show a significant decline.

 

Just imagine the chaos if cruise lines gear up for a soft restart in, say, 4 months only for a second wave of the virus to erupt.  I was optimistic that we'd see cruising resume before year end, but now I'm convinced that it will be spring/summer of 2021 and by then who knows what will have happened to the industry.

[hvbaskey]

Interesting article - RCCL announced a 3-day cruise scheduled for September 2020

https://www.traveloffpath.com/royal-caribbean-announces-us-reopening-date-on-august-16th/

 

"According to Royal Caribbean, their first sailing will be a 3 night ‘Bahamas & Perfect Day‘ cruise scheduled for September 18th."

 

Whether or not it is allowed to go is another conversation ...

Edited July 6, 2020 by hvbaskey

[hvbaskey]

Another interesting post - regarding Japan (Asia):

https://www.traveloffpath.com/japan-prepares-reopening-border-for-tourism/

 

"However, there are some clues on when general tourism might start, and they are found surprisingly in the cruise industry. It appears that Japan may be reopening for cruising in the near future as well.

According to the Royal Caribbean website, their very first cruise scheduled since closing months ago, is an 8 night round trip cruise from Shanghai to Japan.

According to the Costa Cruises website, their first sailing also features a Japan cruise as well for 5 nights departing from Fukuoka on August 13th. 
 

While these dates are tentative, at this time the cruise lines have full intention to sail on those dates and have cabins available for sale."

 

It will be interesting to watch - as Asia is opening up to smaller cruise lines.  If Japan opens up to a select number of countries (which includes Australia and New Zealand); then a restart in Asia could be a possibility.    Grabbing some popcorn!

Edited July 6, 2020 by hvbaskey

[jonthomas]

 I didnt specify to where the sailings would be, but it does have  to be a Celebrity sailing. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by jonthomas

[Babr]

1 hour ago, phoenix_dream said:

I don't think they are aimed at me at all.  But I nevertheless find it offensive as a US citizen with so many feeling it necessary to make comments and insults telling us how bad we have done.   I also am not arguing that we did or did not handle things appropriately.  I think some believe I am but I truly am not.  My point is  - this is a forum about cruising, not a forum to debate how the US has handled the situation.  Heaven knows there are plenty of other forums to do that.  Facebook is full of them.  I know we are in a bad spot and I know it needs to be fixed in order for sailing to resume out of the US.  But I don't need our errors (real and perceived) rubbed in my face over and over when I log into Cruise Critic.

I’m sorry you feel that way. It is hard to talk about a return to cruising without including references to the success - or lack thereof - of managing the virus. That inevitably is tied to the decisions of leaders and how effective they are in getting citizens to follow guidelines. Our results are obvious to all, like it or not.
 

Speaking for myself, I don’t think others are “rubbing my face in it” because I acknowledge that we have been wrong. Perhaps you are sensitive to perceived criticism of the US, but mostly it is deserved.

[zitsky]

32 minutes ago, Babr said:

I’m sorry you feel that way. It is hard to talk about a return to cruising without including references to the success - or lack thereof - of managing the virus. That inevitably is tied to the decisions of leaders and how effective they are in getting citizens to follow guidelines. Our results are obvious to all, like it or not.
 

Speaking for myself, I don’t think others are “rubbing my face in it” because I acknowledge that we have been wrong. Perhaps you are sensitive to perceived criticism of the US, but mostly it is deserved.

 

I can see why this would bother people if all we do is call the US a failure.  Most of us have no control over the government's response.

[Fouremco]

20 minutes ago, zitsky said:

 

I can see why this would bother people if all we do is call the US a failure.  Most of us have no control over the government's response.

No one has called the US a failure. People have pointed out that, for a variety of reason, the US response to the pandemic has been less than stellar, but that doesn't equate to saying that the country is a failure.

[pumpkin 11]

On 7/4/2020 at 11:50 AM, hvbaskey said:

 

The death curve dummy. The only curve that matters. They wanted testing testing testing now you're finding cases cases cases. The real number of cases i'm sure is much higher since 85% are asymptomatic. 

[Babr]

2 hours ago, pumpkin 11 said:

The death curve dummy. The only curve that matters. They wanted testing testing testing now you're finding cases cases cases. The real number of cases i'm sure is much higher since 85% are asymptomatic. 

The death curve is not the only thing that matters. People are suffering long term effects of this disease, and doctors are learning more each day.

 

Testing alone is not responsible for the increased numbers. Look at the increase in the rate positive.  Maybe it would help if we could identify those asymptomatic people, but the testing problem hasn’t been solved after all this time. Perhaps people will notice now that major league baseball shut down practice because they can’t get test results in a timely manner. Nobody seems to notice that cars are lined up for miles in the hot sun trying to get tested.

 

We’re not going to have a healthy economy - or cruising - until we have healthy people.

[bEwAbG]

Testing also does not account for the huge spikes some states are seeing versus others.  Or hospitals filling up in some states but not others.  To pretend otherwise is a head-in-the-sand reaction.  The bottom line is that states that took the issue seriously from the beginning are closer to where much of the rest of the world is while those that didn't are now causing everyone else to wait several months before we can even start thinking about recovery.  

 

My current fear is that it's going to be a vicious circle in which the rise in cases in one part of the country will be followed by a rise in cases in other parts of the country and we'll just keep going round and round.  If that happens, there will be real lockdowns on travel state to state.

Edited July 7, 2020 by bEwAbG

[pumpkin 11]

13 minutes ago, Babr said:

The death curve is not the only thing that matters. People are suffering long term effects of this disease, and doctors are learning more each day.

 

Testing alone is not responsible for the increased numbers. Look at the increase in the rate positive.  Maybe it would help if we could identify those asymptomatic people, but the testing problem hasn’t been solved after all this time. Perhaps people will notice now that major league baseball shut down practice because they can’t get test results in a timely manner. Nobody seems to notice that cars are lined up for miles in the hot sun trying to get tested.

 

We’re not going to have a healthy economy - or cruising - until we have healthy people.

It is the only thing that matters because that was what we were told the reason for the lockdowns were. Overwhelmed hospitals and 2 million people are going to die... fast forward 3 months later none of that happened.  

 

The testing problem? We do more testing per capita than any country in the world, what more do you want?

[hvbaskey]

2 hours ago, pumpkin 11 said:

The death curve dummy. The only curve that matters. They wanted testing testing testing now you're finding cases cases cases. The real number of cases i'm sure is much higher since 85% are asymptomatic. 

 

IF only death matters to you (never mind the people debilitated by this virus);  it’s still not promising:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

 

PS - when cruising resumes has nothing to do with “death rate” - virus has to be looked at as a whole; not with blinders on.   Current EU Travel restrictions are based on “X” positive cases per 100,000 and how each country is handling the pandemic (their response).

Edited July 7, 2020 by hvbaskey

[pumpkin 11]

Cut the crap. This virus is almost dead, deaths are down 90%. The CDC said on the 3rd that the virus is almost out of THEIR own epidemic threshold. The curve has flattened. 

 

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jul/6/coronavirus-death-rate-drops-even-cases-spike/

 

If we see the deaths increase a lot I'll get on board.

[hvbaskey]

On 7/1/2020 at 2:38 PM, cruise kitty said:

 

ignore feature is a wonderful thing....   🙂

 

Thank you - had no idea this existed - what a gift!

[Babr]

1 minute ago, pumpkin 11 said:

It is the only thing that matters because that was what we were told the reason for the lockdowns were. Overwhelmed hospitals and 2 million people are going to die... fast forward 3 months later none of that happened.  

 

The testing problem? We do more testing per capita than any country in the world, what more do you want?

You must have a very limited access to information if you don’t know that hospitals in the South are overwhelmed. Texas Medical Center, one of the largest in the world, was operating over capacity this weekend but is now at about 98% with new record numbers being reported everyday. Two million have not died yet; however, we are closing in on three million cases.

 

Yes, the testing problem. I want everybody who needs a test to get it - the way the President assured us it was back in March. Not true then. Not true now. Get enough tests to test asymptomatics that you point out are so numerous. Think they are not part of the problem? Then why did DJTJ and his girlfriend have to drive home from Mt. Rushmore?

People need not worry about getting a test so they can travel for leisure. We can’t meet the demand for what’s necessary.

[pumpkin 11]

4 minutes ago, Babr said:

You must have a very limited access to information if you don’t know that hospitals in the South are overwhelmed. Texas Medical Center, one of the largest in the world, was operating over capacity this weekend but is now at about 98% with new record numbers being reported everyday. Two million have not died yet; however, we are closing in on three million cases.

 

Yes, the testing problem. I want everybody who needs a test to get it - the way the President assured us it was back in March. Not true then. Not true now. Get enough tests to test asymptomatics that you point out are so numerous. Think they are not part of the problem? Then why did DJTJ and his girlfriend have to drive home from Mt. Rushmore?

People need not worry about getting a test so they can travel for leisure. We can’t meet the demand for what’s necessary.

It might be overcapacity, but it isn't filled with COVID patients. It is close to capacity because of all those people who had to defer care for other aliments because of the shutdowns. Maybe you have access to limited information. 

[Texed]

15 minutes ago, Babr said:

 I want everybody who needs a test to get it - the way the President assured us it was back in March. Not true then. Not true now. Get enough tests to test asymptomatics that you point out are so numerous.

 

We had no problem getting tested in Houston.  Our entire company got tested.

[cgolf1]

So back on topic, what are people thinking of doing if they are pretty sure there cruise is not going to happen? We only have our deposit down, like 300 bucks, and when our PIF hits the question is do we cancel then or pay up and hope for the best? The downsides are we get the 125% thing but have a hard time finding a cruise to use it on especially since we already have one booked in 2022. Further complicating matters is DW only has 2 weeks vaca due to a job switch so cruising twice a year is out for a while. The other big downside is if we opt for money back we may not see it for a long time since it sounds like they are dragging their feet on the refunds.

 

We really wanted to go on the cruise, but unless a lot changes I see no way it happens, or for me to feel safe on the flight down there. No idea on hotel safety, I know what some are doing in WI because coworkers have traveled within the state, but no idea in FLL.

[yorky]

5 minutes ago, cgolf1 said:

So back on topic, what are people thinking of doing if they are pretty sure there cruise is not going to happen? We only have our deposit down, like 300 bucks, and when our PIF hits the question is do we cancel then or pay up and hope for the best? The downsides are we get the 125% thing but have a hard time finding a cruise to use it on especially since we already have one booked in 2022. Further complicating matters is DW only has 2 weeks vaca due to a job switch so cruising twice a year is out for a while. The other big downside is if we opt for money back we may not see it for a long time since it sounds like they are dragging their feet on the refunds.

 

We really wanted to go on the cruise, but unless a lot changes I see no way it happens, or for me to feel safe on the flight down there. No idea on hotel safety, I know what some are doing in WI because coworkers have traveled within the state, but no idea in FLL.

We have gone down the lift and shift option, not willing to pay final payments at this point with the level of uncertainty.

[zitsky]

I have a $900 deposit and have CFAR at 75%.  So if I have to, I'll use it.  I'm thinking to cancel and take a flight somewhere.  6 hours on a plane wearing a mask is better than a week doing the same on a cruise ship.

 

Edit: But the problem is... what countries are open to us?

 

Edit2:  I tried L&S but there was only one option which wasn't appealing.  Maybe I'll look again.

Edited July 7, 2020 by zitsky

[Fouremco]

25 minutes ago, cgolf1 said:

The downsides are we get the 125% thing but have a hard time finding a cruise to use it on especially since we already have one booked in 2022.

When in 2022? The FCC can be used on cruises sailing through May 4, 2022.