Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[Ride-The-Waves]

18 hours ago, D C said:

Let's say there are 2500 people on a ship

5% of those unvaccinated = 125 unvaccinated people on the ship

1/1000 people with covid = 0.125 people with covid expected on the ship if we assume a random sample of people in the US today and do nothing in the way of screening.  

2499.875 out of 2500 aren't infected, so a 99.995% chance that nobody on the ship is infected.

 

That isn't good enough?

 

 

 

You really need to go back to university and take a course in statistics and Boolean logic.

 

All it takes is ONE on a cruise ship to infect the passengers and crew.  ONE!

[sr4mjc]

36 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

Celebrity seems to be ignoring some of the benefits from a vaccine by not requiring vaccinations for future cruises from the US.  Cruises could get back to normal faster if they would mandate vaccinations for passengers and crew.

 

Are they subject to OSHA for the crew ?  Or not because they are non-US based?

 

https://www.osha.gov/coronavirus/faqs#vaccine

 

If you require your employees to be vaccinated as a condition of employment (i.e., for work-related reasons), then any adverse reaction to the COVID-19 vaccine is work-related. The adverse reaction is recordable if it is a new case under 29 CFR 1904.6 and meets one or more of the general recording criteria in 29 CFR 1904.7.

 

[D C]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

You might be right with some variant(s) and the younger ages.  But it is hard to document so far anyway.  Just a very small fraction of Covid positives have their virus actually sequenced.  And it might not be random but targeted.  So is a variant more severe or deadly in younger people/kids?  Or does it just stand out more since so many more older adults are vaccinated or have natural immunity?  A variant infecting young people and kids is higher by proportion now but is it really more severe or deadly?  

Do we even have a common understanding of "younger"?

[D C]

23 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

You really need to go back to university and take a course in statistics and Boolean logic.

 

All it takes is ONE on a cruise ship to infect the passengers and crew.  ONE!

You seem to be suggesting that a lone case will absolutely result in uncontrolled spread among a vaccinated populace. 

 

Not true at all. 

 

It requires an infected and contagious person onboard. 

THEN it takes that person having meaningful contact with someone else who is vulnerable to infection.   With passengers and crew who are almost completely vaccinated, the chance of that is very small.

[mayleeman]

1 hour ago, sr4mjc said:

Are they subject to OSHA for the crew ?

 Not according to every discussion I have ever seen here on CC about crew labor issues, which seems authoritative enough for me! But that might differ when an incident occurs in US waters. Experts?

Edited May 12, 2021 by mayleeman

[Pinboy]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

I think the best focus for me now is forward

 Even for the rest of us who choose to be vaccinated ( based on knowledge from Experts whom are helping us ).  It is close to the time to acknowledge in the USA ( and, with your permission, may I add Canada ) that we have readily available vaccines and if you choose not to get one or for your kids not to get one that is your choice and consequence.  Not mine.  I am not hiding from life anymore because you made the wrong choice.  

( Hope you don't mind that I added a bit above )

Excellent, as always-- and Thanks for taking the time and effort to inform people like myself --appreciate it.

 

[D C]

2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

I think the best focus for me now is forward.  So much has changed since many of these poor Americans perished from the virus when it was unknown and there were no vaccines.  But getting us back to cruising and living more normal lives is now the issue we are discussing.  The national and state health authorities are numbers driven as they have been from the beginning.  Positives.  Positivity rates. Hospitalizations.  Deaths.  Percent hospital or ICU beds available.  None of these categories will be zero maybe for years.  Vaccines are having the intended impact on all of them.  If 20-25% of all seniors over 65 refuse to be vaccinated and continue to die at this point that is a consequence of their personal choice.  But of course everybody will report the death rate and make the case that the virus is still here and deadly.  And keep the restrictions in place for activities like cruising.  Even for the rest of us who choose to be vaccinated.  It is close to the time to acknowledge in the USA that we have readily available vaccines and if you choose not to get one or for your kids not to get one that is your choice and consequence.  Not mine.  I am not hiding from life anymore because you made the wrong choice.  

Agreed!

 

I've said before that once we reach the point where vaccines are readily available on demand to any who want them, that's the point where society should go back to normal.  Not a "new" normal, just a regular old normal.  Don't want to get vaccinated against a preventable illness? No longer my problem. 

[Ride-The-Waves]

59 minutes ago, D C said:

You seem to be suggesting that a lone case will absolutely result in uncontrolled spread among a vaccinated populace. 

 

Not true at all. 

 

It requires an infected and contagious person onboard. 

THEN it takes that person having meaningful contact with someone else who is vulnerable to infection.   With passengers and crew who are almost completely vaccinated, the chance of that is very small.

You contradict yourself which implies guessing and innuendo.

 

How quickly one forgets Ruby Princess: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-09-15/carnival-s-ruby-princess-cruise-ship-spread-coronavirus-around-the-world:

The decision to allow the Ruby to dock would have profound consequences. The ship turned out to be the single most important vector for the coronavirus in Australia, accounting at one point for more than 10% of the country’s cases. In Tasmania two cruisers were the probable source of an outbreak so severe it forced a major hospital to shut down. Other infected passengers flew to the U.S., where some ultimately died. The crew, meanwhile, became virtual prisoners on their own vessel, some unable to return home for months.

Ruby carries 4,200 crew and passengers, a bit more than 2,500.  Simple math using efficacy rates from Pfizer to J&J indicate that up to 1,100 people on board could be infected, carriers and transmitters.  Two can do a lot of damage.  1,100 can spread COVID-19 and its variants like wildfire.  Think about it, then think about variant B.1.617 spreading outwards from India around the world...

[Bluewake]

2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Ok all well known for transmission rates for Covid.  But the transmission rate to and amongst fully vaccinated people on a fully vaccinated ship is the relevant thing that we are talking about.

 

Yes, that is absolutely a valid point. However, I still don't know if the cruise lines are going to require all passengers (or 95%) and crew (or 98%)  to be vaccinated, especially in light of the Florida Governor's order.  If the cruise lines do not require passengers to have been vaccinated, given the number of US citizens who either refuse or are unable to get vaccinated for some other reason (estimates are about 20-25% or even higher among certain groups), I'd have to think it reasonable to assume that there would be a significant percentage of passengers onboard who could be susceptible to the virus.  That was what I was thinking.   However, I truly hope that isn't the case!

Edited May 12, 2021 by Bluewake

[TeeRick]

35 minutes ago, Bluewake said:

 

Yes, that is absolutely a valid point. However, I still don't know if the cruise lines are going to require all passengers (or 95%) and crew (or 98%)  to be vaccinated, especially in light of the Florida Governor's order.  If the cruise lines do not require passengers to have been vaccinated, given the number of US citizens who either refuse or are unable to get vaccinated for some other reason (estimates are about 20-25% or even higher among certain groups), I'd have to think it reasonable to assume that there would be a significant percentage of passengers onboard who could be susceptible to the virus.  That was what I was thinking.   However, I truly hope that isn't the case!

I would say that even if “only” 95% of the people on a ship are fully vaccinated that is still a much higher percentage than what you would find on land at restaurants or grocery stores or churches or whatever.  Even in a highly vaccinated country like the USA or UK.  And a much higher percentage than a public pool on land at a hotel or any outdoor activity on land.  So a 95-100% vaccinated cruise ship on board would be one of the safer places you could be.

[Fouremco]

1 hour ago, Pinboy said:

( Hope you don't mind that I added a bit above )

Excellent, as always-- and Thanks for taking the time and effort to inform people like myself --appreciate it.

 

@TeeRick might not mind that you added that Canadians have readily available vaccines, but I certainly do. In my books, readily available vaccines means that anyone wanting one can get it within a day or two and get the second shot within the time frame recommended by the manufacturer.

 

Less than 3% of Canadians are fully vaccinated and less than 31% have had a single jab because of the ongoing shortage of vaccines here. While AZ had temporarily served to fill the gaps left by shortfalls in shipments from Moderna and Pfizer, some provinces are now stopping the administration of the vaccine due to the blood clot issues. The distribution of the first shipment of J&J, meanwhile, has been delayed as some of the ingredients in the vaccine came from the Emergent Biosolutions facility in Baltimore, cited by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for violations including cleaning and sterilization failures, the potential for cross-contamination and failure to follow required protocols.

 

There is a huge demand that current volumes simply cannot meet, which is why, day after day, only a small trickle of people receive their first jab and then have to sit back and wait 160 days for their second shot rather than the recommended 21 or 28 days.

[Ken the cruiser]

On 5/11/2021 at 10:45 AM, markeb said:

NCL appears to be moving to mandating vaccines, although it's unclear what they have or will propose under the CSO. They're certainly the only cruise line that's been somewhat public in that regard.

Thought you might find this thread I found over on the NCL forum somewhat entertaining. I could have sworn I thought FDR said their ships were going to be 100% vaccinated. If so, why are they soliciting test cruise volunteers???

 

Ncl is starting to look for volunteers for Test cruise in early August - Norwegian Cruise Line - Cruise Critic Community

[markeb]

1 minute ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Thought you might find this thread I found over on the NCL forum somewhat entertaining. I could have sworn I thought FDR said their ships were going to be 100% vaccinated. If so, why are they soliciting test cruise volunteers???

 

Ncl is starting to look for volunteers for Test cruise in early August - Norwegian Cruise Line - Cruise Critic Community

 

Check out the updates to the Operations Manual today. I think they'll require vaccines...

[Ken the cruiser]

2 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

Check out the updates to the Operations Manual today. I think they'll require vaccines...

Do you have a link for those updates? But why Phase 2B test cruises if you can bypass them if you can achieve (and certify) the 95%/98% vaccination threshold and go directly to funded restricted cruises, if you pass all of the other requirements.

[Pinboy]

27 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

 might not mind that you added that Canadians have readily available vaccines, but I certainly do. In my books, readily available vaccines means that anyone wanting one can get it within a day or two and get the second shot within the time frame recommended by the manufacturer.

You are 100 % correct---

In my rush to reply I did not notice the " readily available " term.

It's so damn frustrating that we have to wait until the end of July for our 2nd shot !!

[markeb]

5 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Do you have a link for those updates? But why Phase 2B test cruises if you can bypass them if you can achieve (and certify) the 95%/98% vaccination threshold and go directly to funded restricted cruises, if you pass all of the other requirements.

 

This is dated today. There are a number of sections changing requirements for vaccinated travelers, including mask use, dining, and excursions. They don't highlight changes when they post updates, unfortunately.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/covid19-operations-manual-cso.html

[Ken the cruiser]

3 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

This is dated today. There are a number of sections changing requirements for vaccinated travelers, including mask use, dining, and excursions. They don't highlight changes when they post updates, unfortunately.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/covid19-operations-manual-cso.html

Thanks Mark. I also just found it on the other thread you posted it on.

[Fouremco]

11 minutes ago, Pinboy said:

You are 100 % correct---

In my rush to reply I did not notice the " readily available " term.

It's so damn frustrating that we have to wait until the end of July for our 2nd shot !!

Yes, very frustrating, July 31 for DW and me. We were hoping that they might shorten the delay with four vaccines available, but the J&J and AZ problems pushed that idea aside, at least for the time being.

[4774Papa]

5 hours ago, TeeRick said:

I think the best focus for me now is forward.  So much has changed since many of these poor Americans perished from the virus when it was unknown and there were no vaccines.  But getting us back to cruising and living more normal lives is now the issue we are discussing.  The national and state health authorities are numbers driven as they have been from the beginning.  Positives.  Positivity rates. Hospitalizations.  Deaths.  Percent hospital or ICU beds available.  None of these categories will be zero maybe for years.  Vaccines are having the intended impact on all of them.  If 20-25% of all seniors over 65 refuse to be vaccinated and continue to die at this point that is a consequence of their personal choice.  But of course everybody will report the death rate and make the case that the virus is still here and deadly.  And keep the restrictions in place for activities like cruising.  Even for the rest of us who choose to be vaccinated.  It is close to the time to acknowledge in the USA that we have readily available vaccines and if you choose not to get one or for your kids not to get one that is your choice and consequence.  Not mine.  I am not hiding from life anymore because you made the wrong choice.  

BINGO, you nailed it.  I understand that COVID19 is a risk, but with widespread vaccination (including my wife and self) it is significantly less a risk (especially to vaccinated people).

[docsneeze]

10 hours ago, TeeRick said:

I think the best focus for me now is forward.  So much has changed since many of these poor Americans perished from the virus when it was unknown and there were no vaccines.  But getting us back to cruising and living more normal lives is now the issue we are discussing.  The national and state health authorities are numbers driven as they have been from the beginning.  Positives.  Positivity rates. Hospitalizations.  Deaths.  Percent hospital or ICU beds available.  None of these categories will be zero maybe for years.  Vaccines are having the intended impact on all of them.  If 20-25% of all seniors over 65 refuse to be vaccinated and continue to die at this point that is a consequence of their personal choice.  But of course everybody will report the death rate and make the case that the virus is still here and deadly.  And keep the restrictions in place for activities like cruising.  Even for the rest of us who choose to be vaccinated.  It is close to the time to acknowledge in the USA that we have readily available vaccines and if you choose not to get one or for your kids not to get one that is your choice and consequence.  Not mine.  I am not hiding from life anymore because you made the wrong choice.  

"Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it."  (Paraphrased)  Agree with you but if I was a cruise corporation, I would not only be concerned with the health aspects but particularly the potential legal implications if even one Covid infection could occur on a ship.  Therefore, I believe that 100% vaccination could be the requirement unless physical disability (previous vaccine anaphylaxis) precludes administration.  I advise my patients to take the vaccine because of the personal freedom it affords them, if for no other reason.  The numbers will be there but in 2-3 years may be miniscule if we have an active pandemic watch strategy going forward that actually listens to the scientists and vaccination strategies that make sense.  By the way, this same delivery system for mRNA is being explored for a variety of other conditions including cancer.  Can't think of anyone who would refuse a vaccine in that situation.

[NMTraveller]

Not so good news for Sinopharm.  I am thankful that we have access to the vaccines that we do.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/12/business/economy/covid-seychelles-sinopharm.html?algo=combo_lda_newslettersize20_unique_edimp_fye_step50_diversified&block=1&campaign_id=142&emc=edit_fory_20210512&fellback=false&imp_id=351501291&instance_id=30717&nl=for-you&nlid=165745238&rank=1&regi_id=165745238&req_id=624494784&segment_id=57911&surface=for-you-email-wym&user_id=1f5bcdeba7cff6fe94901e3e55ec33a0&variant=2_combo_lda_newslettersize20_unique_edimp_step50_diversified

Edited May 12, 2021 by NMTraveller

[LGW59]

6 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

BINGO, you nailed it.  I understand that COVID19 is a risk, but with widespread vaccination (including my wife and self) it is significantly less a risk (especially to vaccinated people).

2 Moderna shots under our belt, well in our arms, and we head for 5 weeks on Saturday to Cape Cod.  First thing we plan to do on Saturday night, go and sit INSIDE (first time since March 2020) a restaurant on the beach, eat dinner without a mask, drink, laugh with friends...just pretend we are normal.  To quote Celine Dion; It's All Coming Back To Me now!

Edited May 12, 2021 by LGW59

[NMTraveller]

4 hours ago, NMTraveller said:

Not so good news for Sinopharm.  I am thankful that we have access to the vaccines that we do.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/12/business/economy/covid-seychelles-sinopharm.html?algo=combo_lda_newslettersize20_unique_edimp_fye_step50_diversified&block=1&campaign_id=142&emc=edit_fory_20210512&fellback=false&imp_id=351501291&instance_id=30717&nl=for-you&nlid=165745238&rank=1&regi_id=165745238&req_id=624494784&segment_id=57911&surface=for-you-email-wym&user_id=1f5bcdeba7cff6fe94901e3e55ec33a0&variant=2_combo_lda_newslettersize20_unique_edimp_step50_diversified

The concern here is that Sinopharm is a WHO certified vaccine.  Does not that mean that cruise ship personnel can get the vaccine?

[dodger1964]

21 hours ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

You contradict yourself which implies guessing and innuendo.

 

How quickly one forgets Ruby Princess: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-09-15/carnival-s-ruby-princess-cruise-ship-spread-coronavirus-around-the-world:

The decision to allow the Ruby to dock would have profound consequences. The ship turned out to be the single most important vector for the coronavirus in Australia, accounting at one point for more than 10% of the country’s cases. In Tasmania two cruisers were the probable source of an outbreak so severe it forced a major hospital to shut down. Other infected passengers flew to the U.S., where some ultimately died. The crew, meanwhile, became virtual prisoners on their own vessel, some unable to return home for months.

Ruby carries 4,200 crew and passengers, a bit more than 2,500.  Simple math using efficacy rates from Pfizer to J&J indicate that up to 1,100 people on board could be infected, carriers and transmitters.  Two can do a lot of damage.  1,100 can spread COVID-19 and its variants like wildfire.  Think about it, then think about variant B.1.617 spreading outwards from India around the world...

And you think that situation applies today?

[TeeRick]

8 hours ago, NMTraveller said:

The concern here is that Sinopharm is a WHO certified vaccine.  Does not that mean that cruise ship personnel can get the vaccine?

Yes unfortunately that is true.  We have discussed this a few times.  Places like the Philippines use that vaccine.  At least one cruise line (NCL) specified the vaccines they would accept for crew.  They did not have any of the vaccines from China on their approved list.