When do you realistically expect to cruise again?

[RocketMan275]

12 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

When you served in Korea, sir, was Covid-19 an issue?

 

No, but  malaria was an issue and that was why we were given HCQ.

I'm not sure why your question is even relevant.

[cruisemom42]

39 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

Those examples should be sufficient to make you question whether those 'experts' are really experts.

 

No one can know everything about a brand new disease or virus the moment it appears.

 

However, I would rather have someone (or preferably large groups of someones) studying this new disease or virus that has years and years of education, training, and experience in the evolution and spread of other, similar viruses. Compared with, let's say, a political figure who attended zero years of medical school, completed zero years of training as a doctor of internal medicine and zero years of specialized training in infectious disease (which is the minimum requirement for an infectious disease specialist, not to mention years of further study to become an expert in a specific area...)

 

Who would you take advice from if you had just been diagnosed with a rare new heart condition -- your cardiologist or your neighbor down the street who repairs computers?

 

 

 

[RocketMan275]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

No one can know everything about a brand new disease or virus the moment it appears.

 

However, I would rather have someone (or preferably large groups of someones) studying this new disease or virus that has years and years of education, training, and experience in the evolution and spread of other, similar viruses. Compared with, let's say, a political figure who attended zero years of medical school, completed zero years of training as a doctor of internal medicine and zero years of specialized training in infectious disease (which is the minimum requirement for an infectious disease specialist, not to mention years of further study to become an expert in a specific area...)

 

Who would you take advice from if you had just been diagnosed with a rare new heart condition -- your cardiologist or your neighbor down the street who repairs computers?

You do realize that following the advice of those experts has cost thousands of lives?  For example, those experts predicted that hospitals would be inundated with CV patients.  They advised minimizing the number of patients in these hospitals in preparation for this flood of patients.  This had the direct result of forcing nursing homes to accept CV infected patients from those hospitals who spread the virus into those nursing homes filled with those most vulnerable to CV.  I've seen where upwards of 75% of the deaths in some states happened in these nursing homes.

 

Another consequence of following this 'expert' advice is thousands of health care workers lost their jobs and some hospitals are facing economic catastrophe because many patients were emptied out.  Would it not have been better to take a wait and see approach where non-emergency procedures were phased out if and when the inundation happened.  Or, perhaps, those infected patients could have been transferred to a limited number of selected nursing homes instead of a shotgun approach?

 

Yes, you are correct in that even the 'experts' have much to learn about this virus.  That's why I'm sceptical of what the experts have to say.  Often they don't know any more than 'a political figure'.  BTW, much of what you hear about CV is nothing more than a political knee jerk reaction to that 'political figure'.  He isn't as dumb as many would like to think.

Edited July 29, 2020 by RocketMan275

[Mosaic]

Total garbage and off topic.  I will stick with experts.

[RocketMan275]

31 minutes ago, Mosaic said:

Total garbage and off topic.  I will stick with experts.

The problem with 'sticking with experts' is this.  Their opinions change and they are not always in agreement.  So which experts and which of their opinions?

[Mosaic]

That is the nature of science and is by FAR the best we have.

 

[sail7seas]

 

Two U.S. labs are in their stage three  testing   for  a  vaccine.  About 30,000  voluntiers were injected this week  as part of the trial studies.

 

 

[iancal]

They will be three month trials.   Maybe another month for eval.  Assuming they are successful and assuming a more effective vaccine does not move to the testing stage.

 

Even then, four months or so later, the first people to get the vaccine will be health care workers, seniors, those with medical issues.  Cruisers will not be first in line, nor will cruise line employees.

 

People who believe they will get a jab by Sept. and be cruising in October/November are fooling themselves.  I would be surprised to see wide availability  of a vaccine before Q121.

Edited July 29, 2020 by iancal

[cruisemom42]

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

The problem with 'sticking with experts' is this.  Their opinions change and they are not always in agreement.  So which experts and which of their opinions?

 

People seem stuck on the idea that this has to be black or white.  

 

It is a complex virus, a complex problem due to differences in how it is being managed and reported worldwide, and the science itself is not simple.

 

Scientists are trained to keep an open mind, to weigh all evidence, and to change/update their hypothesis according to the facts and observations. That means nothing (or rarely anything) is ever set in stone. 

 

Agreements are reached by comparing facts and approaches. Disagreements are bound to happen when the situation is as outlined above -- new and complex.  

 

Flexibility and adaptation is not a bad thing. It is how we have survived as a species. We have to adapt to changing situations. I guess time will tell whose approach worked best; for now, in the absence of any discernible reason to put my faith elsewhere, I will trust the experts.

 

Going back to the hurricane analogy I used earlier -- I would still rather heed the advice of an expert meteorologist (or a panel of them) who specialize in tracking hurricanes -- even though they are not always right and even though hurricanes sometimes do not follow the predicted model.  That meteorologist still has a FAR more likely chance of being right than I do.

 

[KirkNC]

1 hour ago, sail7seas said:

 

Two U.S. labs are in their stage three  testing   for  a  vaccine.  About 30,000  voluntiers were injected this week  as part of the trial studies.

 

 

We have volunteered to participate, don’t know if they will select us.  Moderna is about  ten minutes from our house.  I don’t think anyone has actually been injected yet for the phase three trial..

Edited July 29, 2020 by KirkNC

[KirkNC]

7 minutes ago, iancal said:

They will be three month trials.   Maybe another month for eval.  Assuming they are successful and assuming a more effective vaccine does not move to the testing stage.

 

Even then, four months or so later, the first people to get the vaccine will be health care workers, seniors, those with medical issues.  Cruisers will not be first in line, nor will cruise line employees.

 

People who believe they will get a jab by Sept. and be cruising in October/November are fooling themselves.  I would be surprised to see wide availability  of a vaccine before Q121.

Agreed but I think more like summer/fall of 2021 plus it is highly likely that it will be a two shot/stage process.

[iancal]

Absolutely agree.  We cannot envisage even booking a cruise until Q421 or sailing before Q1 22 or Q2 22.  We feel far more comfortable doing a land trip before a cruise.  We have very little confidence in any cruise line to place our health and safety ahead of their profit based on past performance.

 

No doubt the cruise lines want to keep the prospect of early cruises out there so people will continue to play the book/fcc/rebook mugs game.   We do not plan on parting with dime one until cruising has resumed to our safety and comfort level.

 

 Bravado may be viewed as  wonderful however when it comes to health and personal safety we tend to err on the side of caution. 

Edited July 29, 2020 by iancal

[sail7seas]

10 minutes ago, iancal said:

They will be three month trials.   Maybe another month for eval.  Assuming they are successful and assuming a more effective vaccine does not move to the testing stage.

 

Even then, four months or so later, the first people to get the vaccine will be health care workers, seniors, those with medical issues.  Cruisers will not be first in line, nor will cruise line employees.

 

People who believe they will get a jab by Sept. and be cruising in October/November are fooling themselves.  I would be surprised to see wide availability  of a vaccine before Q121.

 

 

These vaccinces, cleared as ready for human trials have come from the labs so  quickly.  Let us all hope they prove to be  safe and effective...  the whole world needs them badly and urgently.  

[RocketMan275]

47 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

People seem stuck on the idea that this has to be black or white.  

 

It is a complex virus, a complex problem due to differences in how it is being managed and reported worldwide, and the science itself is not simple.

 

Scientists are trained to keep an open mind, to weigh all evidence, and to change/update their hypothesis according to the facts and observations. That means nothing (or rarely anything) is ever set in stone. 

 

Agreements are reached by comparing facts and approaches. Disagreements are bound to happen when the situation is as outlined above -- new and complex.  

 

Flexibility and adaptation is not a bad thing. It is how we have survived as a species. We have to adapt to changing situations. I guess time will tell whose approach worked best; for now, in the absence of any discernible reason to put my faith elsewhere, I will trust the experts.

 

Going back to the hurricane analogy I used earlier -- I would still rather heed the advice of an expert meteorologist (or a panel of them) who specialize in tracking hurricanes -- even though they are not always right and even though hurricanes sometimes do not follow the predicted model.  That meteorologist still has a FAR more likely chance of being right than I do.

 

Good points.  Actually, I'm looking forward to the release of studies maybe three years from now, after action reports, that address what we did right and what we did wrong.  

 

BTW, have  you ever looked at the prediction tracks for hurricanes?  Seven or eight models with often widely differing predictions of the tracks.  By the time the models converge, you can get as accurate a prediction looking out your window. 

 

Another BTW, my experience with local weathermen, all meteorologist, does not give me confidence.  We had one here who was censored by the weather bureau for his off the wall statements.  Another one was often drunk by the time of the 10 O'clock news.

[durangoscots]

Drop it guys, or this thread will be shut down. 

 

Susan

[sail7seas]

3 hours ago, KirkNC said:

We have volunteered to participate, don’t know if they will select us.  Moderna is about  ten minutes from our house.  I don’t think anyone has actually been injected yet for the phase three trial..

 

 

I think many  (a great many )voluntiers were injected this week.  I've not yet heard of any seriously bad reactions.

 

 

[sail7seas]

3 hours ago, KirkNC said:

😎Agreed but I think more like summer/fall of 2021 plus it is highly likely that it will be a two shot/stage process.

So many CC  HAL posters here often speak of all the oldsters who cruise HAL  🙂  Maybe HAL seniors especially (those with high risk conditions) will be  high on the eligible list   and  first  to be able to sail again   🙂 

 

 

Edited July 29, 2020 by sail7seas

[drowelf]

Another factor that just came to my mind, is all the infrastructure behind a cruise. The vaccine is just the tip of the iceberg. Once people can cruise again, the industry itself has to marshal all various behind the scenes activities before a ship even pulls into port to take on passengers. Ships have to be crewed and supplied, port stops and shore excursions have to be arranged. How many tour vendors will even be in business after a prolonged outage, what about basic and specialty food suppliers for the ships? This whole infrastructure has been shutdown for months and will be for at least the rest of the year.  

Edited July 29, 2020 by drowelf

[rkacruiser]

9 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

No, but  malaria was an issue and that was why we were given HCQ.

I'm not sure why your question is even relevant.

 

Checking with the CDC web site, I was surprised to learn that malaria could be contracted in Korea.  Traveling to Korea in 2002, however, I was not required to be immunized for this disease.  I continue to learn which I why I enjoy participating on CC.

 

Perhaps the relevancy of my question is in the opinion of the reader?

[rafinmd]

2 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Checking with the CDC web site, I was surprised to learn that malaria could be contracted in Korea.  Traveling to Korea in 2002, however, I was not required to be immunized for this disease.  I continue to learn which I why I enjoy participating on CC.

 

Perhaps the relevancy of my question is in the opinion of the reader?

Malaria is one of the uses of HCQ for which the FDA has tested and approved.  Using a drug off label, while not illegal, is generally not recommended.

 

Roy

[RocketMan275]

1 hour ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Checking with the CDC web site, I was surprised to learn that malaria could be contracted in Korea.  Traveling to Korea in 2002, however, I was not required to be immunized for this disease.  I continue to learn which I why I enjoy participating on CC.

 

Perhaps the relevancy of my question is in the opinion of the reader?

I was surprised to learn of malaria in Korea when I got there too.  The HCQ was on the tables and we were required to take it.  The reason you weren't required to be immunized is that the malaria vaccine was only approved in 2015.  According to wikipedia it is of low efficacy.  

My point about HCQ wasn't about it's effectiveness as a treatment for CV but only wanted to show how ridiculous some of the reactions to HCQ have been.  This is just one example of how so much of our response to CV has become too politicized.  

[npcl]

3 hours ago, rafinmd said:

Malaria is one of the uses of HCQ for which the FDA has tested and approved.  Using a drug off label, while not illegal, is generally not recommended.

 

Roy

off label use pretty common in Oncology.

[RocketMan275]

14 hours ago, rafinmd said:

Malaria is one of the uses of HCQ for which the FDA has tested and approved.  Using a drug off label, while not illegal, is generally not recommended.

 

Roy

Happens all the time:  HCQ Off-label use: Rheumatoid arthritis, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus, primary Sjögren’s Syndrome (extraglandular manifestations), inflammatory osteoarthritis.  

https://www.rheumtutor.com/medications/hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil/

Have you heard any complaints about using HCQ for lupus or arthritis.  

[HappyInVan]

23 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

BTW, have  you ever looked at the prediction tracks for hurricanes?  Seven or eight models with often widely differing predictions of the tracks.  By the time the models converge, you can get as accurate a prediction looking out your window. 

 

 

Let me be perfectly clear. I'll always value the advise from experts like DR. Fauci, over the opinions of civilians and idiotic politicians.

 

Experts may be wrong at the beginning. But, they will be right at the end.

 

Experts will over time be more right than civilians. Right for the right reasons. With a clear understanding of the issues. Cruises will only resume if we listen to the medical experts.

 

 

[RocketMan275]

3 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Let me be perfectly clear. I'll always value the advise from experts like DR. Fauci, over the opinions of civilians and idiotic politicians.

Have you ordered your goggles yet?

“If you have goggles or an eye shield, you should use it,” Fauci told ABC News Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Jennifer Ashton. When asked if we may end up getting to a point where doing so will be recommended, Fauci responded, “It might, if you really want perfect protection of the mucosal surfaces.”