polll time. What do you think will happen for cruises for 2020

[evandbob]

Look at latest cancellations posted by Carnival this morning, several threads already.

[Tapi]

18 hours ago, tinleypark andy said:

Agreed, but we have to pile into crowded airplanes to get to the ports.

You are aware that airplanes have been flying during the entire pandemic, most recently pretty full, with procedures and protocols in place, and without a single case of mass infection attributed to a single flight, right? 

[Trueblueky]

10 hours ago, poz222 said:

My bet would bet would be on a “soft” restart with a limited number of ships sometime Nov/Dec depending on Covid situation and restrictions. This would give a chance to test protocols how to operate with new constraints as well to be able to stagger re-staffing and get all the ship upgrades and certificates/inspections up to date. 

^ this

Short cruises from a few ports.  Stopping at private islands. Something like this: Port Canaveral - sea day - Half Moon Cay -- Port Canaveral.

 

No transatlantic, no Alaska, no Hawaii, no Canada.  I don't see how they can cruise from west coast.

[topaz123]

Just to be on safe side....we're looking at 2033 bookings...

[glrounds]

On 9/14/2020 at 4:59 PM, MsTabbyKats said:

You need to add "beyond 2021".

 

Yes, I would agree. If, of course, we're talking about "normal" cruising sans masks, sans distancing, sans ship-sponsored tours, etc. An efficacious vaccine changes all of this naturally. Nobody boards unless they have the shot and immunity and that's that. End of Pandemic.

 

[cruisinmeme]

[xDisconnections]

1 hour ago, topaz123 said:

Just to be on safe side....we're looking at 2033 bookings...

But this November is still an option!

[Cruiseboy06]

Expect more cancellations!  If you really think Carnival will be cruising in November and December make other plans.    When somebody said carnival won’t be canceling anymore cruises unless it’s by the CDC or CLIA they were wrong.    

[BlerkOne]

Now I KNOW Carnival will be cruising!

[ninjacat123]

7 hours ago, glrounds said:

 

Yes, I would agree. If, of course, we're talking about "normal" cruising sans masks, sans distancing, sans ship-sponsored tours, etc. An efficacious vaccine changes all of this naturally. Nobody boards unless they have the shot and immunity and that's that. End of Pandemic.

 

Nice word, efficacious!  Learned something today🙂

[xDisconnections]

5 hours ago, Cruiseboy06 said:

Expect more cancellations!  If you really think Carnival will be cruising in November and December make other plans.    When somebody said carnival won’t be canceling anymore cruises unless it’s by the CDC or CLIA they were wrong.    

Not everything in November had been canceled though.

[cruisingguy007]

Some cruising will resume in 2020, towards the end. It will be different than everyone is used to with masks, social distancing, and a general "limited experience". Things will look more normal by Feb-March 2021 though. One, because many of the purposed "action plans and policies" won't be conducive to the cruising lifestyle. People like to eat in groups, smoke, drink at bars, talk, gather, participate in group activities, watch shows, gamble (I love craps), kids will want to play in the kids clubs and be social, get off the ship, do independent excursions etc etc etc. Policies that reduce/curtail these options will lead to folks putting off future cruises simply because they don't enjoy the product the same. Unsustainable business model. Two, death rates are dropping all over and we may get to a point of acceptable risk with symptom reduction management and thus, reduction of number of deaths and reductions of serious ICU outcomes. Third, a vaccine will eventually be made that will further reduce transmission rates and deaths/serious ICU admissions. 

 

There has to be a point where acceptable risk is compared with absolute elimination. We've chosen the hard way, piecemeal policies with opening and closing and a confusing plethora of different rules everywhere. Versus a comprehensive 14-day complete nation-wide shutdown to wipe it out or reduce it to micro levels that are manageable. A lot of people expect a all or nothing mitigation effort by the cruise lines. Thant's unreasonable. No other industry is held to such high unrealistic expectations. Plenty of products kill people everyday (cars, guns, alcohol, prescription drugs, cigarettes etc) and most don't believe in shutting those industries down as a whole until they can make their products 100% safe. 

 

Cruising, by its inherent nature, will always pose some risks. The question is, what level is acceptable and what level are we willing to accept to have a normal experience and a normal product we've come to expect as passengers? It's much the same in our everyday lives. Our landscape has been altered and is off kilt at the moment but levity will return soon enough, through mitigation efforts and effective treatments to reduce symptoms and improve outcomes. The incentives are too great: sheer exhaustion of non-normalcy, financial motivations, economic/market considerations, and scientific/medical breakthrough. Just like I always bet on America, I'd bet on this too! Cruising, and America in general, will be back to our "good old selves" in no time! We have stubborn determination and short memories! 🙂 Go on, book that cruise!              

Edited September 17, 2020 by cruisingguy007

[PhillyFan33579]

6 hours ago, cruisingguy007 said:

Some cruising will resume in 2020, towards the end. It will be different than everyone is used to with masks, social distancing, and a general "limited experience". Things will look more normal by Feb-March 2021 though. One, because many of the purposed "action plans and policies" won't be conducive to the cruising lifestyle. People like to eat in groups, smoke, drink at bars, talk, gather, participate in group activities, watch shows, gamble (I love craps), kids will want to play in the kids clubs and be social, get off the ship, do independent excursions etc etc etc. Policies that reduce/curtail these options will lead to folks putting off future cruises simply because they don't enjoy the product the same. Unsustainable business model. Two, death rates are dropping all over and we may get to a point of acceptable risk with symptom reduction management and thus, reduction of number of deaths and reductions of serious ICU outcomes. Third, a vaccine will eventually be made that will further reduce transmission rates and deaths/serious ICU admissions. 

 

There has to be a point where acceptable risk is compared with absolute elimination. We've chosen the hard way, piecemeal policies with opening and closing and a confusing plethora of different rules everywhere. Versus a comprehensive 14-day complete nation-wide shutdown to wipe it out or reduce it to micro levels that are manageable. A lot of people expect a all or nothing mitigation effort by the cruise lines. Thant's unreasonable. No other industry is held to such high unrealistic expectations. Plenty of products kill people everyday (cars, guns, alcohol, prescription drugs, cigarettes etc) and most don't believe in shutting those industries down as a whole until they can make their products 100% safe. 

 

Cruising, by its inherent nature, will always pose some risks. The question is, what level is acceptable and what level are we willing to accept to have a normal experience and a normal product we've come to expect as passengers? It's much the same in our everyday lives. Our landscape has been altered and is off kilt at the moment but levity will return soon enough, through mitigation efforts and effective treatments to reduce symptoms and improve outcomes. The incentives are too great: sheer exhaustion of non-normalcy, financial motivations, economic/market considerations, and scientific/medical breakthrough. Just like I always bet on America, I'd bet on this too! Cruising, and America in general, will be back to our "good old selves" in no time! We have stubborn determination and short memories! 🙂 Go on, book that cruise!              

Good post. I wish I shared your enthusiasm/optimism. 

[Earthworm Jim]

On 9/15/2020 at 5:16 PM, BlerkOne said:

I'm willing to drive a couple of days to avoid flights and fees.

 

Trouble is, that's not without risks either. Stopping in restaurants, hotels, and rest areas. It's hard to judge whether long distance driving or flying is safer.

 

They claim flying isn't too terribly risky. But even with a middle seat empty sitting for a few hours with some stranger sitting 31 inches behind you and another 31 inches in front of you seems like you'd have to all be breathing each other's air.

[PhillyFan33579]

Interesting that 22% of the responses as of right now think cruises will resume in November. While that number is still pretty low, it is higher than I expected it to be.  

[skiwhe]

On 9/14/2020 at 6:44 PM, Cruiseboy06 said:

Please don't be political!

It's time again for ANOTHER poll lol.    Do you think there will be cruises resuming in November, December, or sometime in 2021?   There are a lot of rumors, speculations, movements of ships, disappearing cruises from Carnival's website, and etc..  

 

3rd attempt. Please don’t delete without telling me why. I am directly responding to the question of this thread
 

I think we will see cruises allowed to open up after the first week of November. (If that comment is offensive and the reason my last 3 posts magically disappear from this thread, please explain why). My opinion is based on the downward trajectory of the coronavirus  infection rates combined with the CDC order expiration of 30 Sep.  Essentially, based on the numbers, I think the CDC will extend the order for 6 weeks (approx 9 Nov) and then allow modified cruising (masks, extra precautions, etc). My opinion (just as the OP asked for) 

[skiwhe]

3 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Interesting that 22% of the responses as of right now think cruises will resume in November. While that number is still pretty low, it is higher than I expected it to be.  

I don’t think they will resume then, but I think they may be given the green light about then. Fingers crossed. 

[chipmaster]

On 9/14/2020 at 4:44 PM, Cruiseboy06 said:

Please don't be political!

It's time again for ANOTHER poll lol.    Do you think there will be cruises resuming in November, December, or sometime in 2021?   There are a lot of rumors, speculations, movements of ships, disappearing cruises from Carnival's website, and etc..  

 

Cruising has already started in some places, the real question is when can good ole American Citizens sail from US ports to some international destination instead of being seen as lepers or welcomed to an international location and sail from there.  Darn even our best friends up North want nothing to do with us for tourist dollars,   LOL

 

I think out of the USA maybe by middle of 2021, will be interesting to see how the cruiselines look there.  I guess if people can swallow the quarantine overhead things they could go now in Europe.

Edited September 20, 2020 by chipmaster

[skiwhe]

Just now, chipmaster said:

 

Cruising has already started in some places, the real question is when can good ole American Citizens sail from US ports to some international destination instead of being seen as lepers, LOL

That’s exactly my thought. There’s a risk/reward balance the CDC is trying to maintain. That’s why I see the order being lifted in November 

[Cruiseboy06]

6 minutes ago, skiwhe said:

That’s exactly my thought. There’s a risk/reward balance the CDC is trying to maintain. That’s why I see the order being lifted in November 

very unlikely!!!!!!!   The cruiselines have not submitted their recommendations to resume cruising to the CDC YET.  If they have they would have made a big deal out of it.  There is no solid proof of crew getting called, getting ready to go to the ships or anything like that. They said it would 8 to  6 weeks to get the ships ready to sail again.     BTW the cases in Europe are on the rise again..................  https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/17/europe/coronavirus-europe-who-second-wave-intl/index.html

[skiwhe]

7 minutes ago, Cruiseboy06 said:

very unlikely!!!!!!!   The cruiselines have not submitted their recommendations to resume cruising to the CDC YET.  If they have they would have made a big deal out of it.  There is no solid proof of crew getting called, getting ready to go to the ships or anything like that. They said it would 8 to  6 weeks to get the ships ready to sail again.     BTW the cases in Europe are on the rise again..................  https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/17/europe/coronavirus-europe-who-second-wave-intl/index.html

Four CEOs have made their pleas very loudly just last week (https://cruise.blog/2020/09/cruise-line-ceos-push-industry-restart-we-are-confident-our-protocols). 
 

Additionally, the Great Lake Cruise lines have put out their planned  precautions (https://www.mlive.com/news/muskegon/2020/08/great-lakes-cruise-ships-issue-coronavirus-safety-pledge-for-2021.html)

 

I still hold to the ban being lifted in early November, with cruise lines ramping up cruises through the spring. 

[BlerkOne]

21 minutes ago, Cruiseboy06 said:

very unlikely!!!!!!!   The cruiselines have not submitted their recommendations to resume cruising to the CDC YET.  If they have they would have made a big deal out of it. 

If not, then the CDC would have extended the ban by now..

 

21 minutes ago, Cruiseboy06 said:

 

There is no solid proof of crew getting called, getting ready to go to the ships or anything like that. They said it would 8 to  6 weeks to get the ships ready to sail again.     

Why would Carnival let the competition know?

 

21 minutes ago, Cruiseboy06 said:

 

BTW the cases in Europe are on the rise again..................  https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/17/europe/coronavirus-europe-who-second-wave-intl/index.html

 

Second (and perhaps third) waves have always been expected. The 1918 flu pandemic had 3 waves. What there is no proof of is that the US will be done with the first wave in 2020 or even 2021.

 

The number of cases (first wave) is also on the increase in the US.

[Cruiseboy06]

14 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

If not, then the CDC would have extended the ban by now..

 Today is 20th.........  They have till  Sept 30th 11:59 pm to extend the order.......  Last time they extended the order 8 days before the last expiration date.     COVID IS is still a public health emergency in the US.. 

 

 

The CDC notes its order is in effect until either: the expiration of the Secretary of Health and Human Services' declaration that COVID-19 constitutes a public health emergency; the CDC director rescinds or modifies the order based on specific public health or other considerations; or until September 30.

 

 

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5467/

 

 

 

 

 

[xDisconnections]

8 minutes ago, Cruiseboy06 said:

 Today is 20th.........  They have till  Sept 30th 11:59 pm to extend the order.......  Last time they extended the order 8 days before the last expiration date.     COVID IS is still a public health emergency in the US.. 

 

 

The CDC notes its order is in effect until either: the expiration of the Secretary of Health and Human Services' declaration that COVID-19 constitutes a public health emergency; the CDC director rescinds or modifies the order based on specific public health or other considerations; or until September 30.

 

 

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5467/

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not too sure the CDC No Sail Order is as crucial to their operations resuming as you think. Many cruise lines have their operations suspended through November, December and others into 2021. These have all been voluntary and not at the requirement of the CDC.

Edited September 20, 2020 by xDisconnections

[lobster1313]

The question is not about extending, it's about how long.  The CDC could extend it by 30 days to give the cruise lines and the ports time to get ready for a restart in November or early December.

Edited September 20, 2020 by regoodwinjr