CDC

[Orator]

Personal opinion: Even if there is an effective and safe vaccine by the end of November I  don't see a return to full cruising until April. There will be test cruises as RCL as Fain has announced and perhaps some short cruises to test the protocols, but longer cruises IMHO won't happen. Crystal has officially cancelled Sermity and Symphony cruises through March and others will certainly follow. 

[LGW59]

11 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

That's very distressing if it doesn't change!  We have four cruises next year longer than 7 days; 3 of them in the first half of the year.  I'm hoping by the 3rd quarter this edict might change, but I'm really concerned about the 3.  I hope Celebrity does the right thing and advises people ASAP what is going to happen to their longer cruises!  I doubt they will, but I can hope

I have a B2B, May 1-15, then May 15-27, same ship, same suite etc, based on this my guess is will not be allowed.  Lot can change by then I know and surely just speculation on my part.

[nocl]

4 hours ago, TeeRick said:

I believe - but I admit that I don't know- that if the No Sail Order expires tomorrow that a lot of discussion and agreements have already been made by the cruise lines, the CLIA, and the CDC.  But the CDC has the ultimate hammer as they could simply issue another No Sail Order at any time if the cruise lines do not comply or if there are too many positive cases on ships resulting in hospitalizations and deaths over what might be expected.  Perhaps neither Imposition or Expiration of the No Sail Order is a one time event as some believe.  It could happen again and again.  But I would not want to have my business affected by such ongoing uncertainty. 

 Well the good news is that the CDC did not just let the Ban expire and will require the cruise lines to qualify for a conditional sailing order.  I see this as the best possible news.  It provides a path forward for the cruise lines, at the same time makes sure that the CDC will be involved in making sure of procedures and compliance.

 

Now it will be interesting to see how fast the cruise lines can qualify and what the details are for the requirements.

 

The CDC document is at 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/CDC-Conditional-Sail-Order_10_30_2020-p.pdf

 

Pages 31-35 seem to answer many of the questions raised on CC.

Edited October 30, 2020 by nocl

[TeeRick]

14 minutes ago, nocl said:

 Well the good news is that the CDC did not just let the Ban expire and will require the cruise lines to qualify for a conditional sailing order.  I see this as the best possible news.  It provides a path forward for the cruise lines, at the same time makes sure that the CDC will be involved in making sure of procedures and compliance.

 

Now it will be interesting to see how fast the cruise lines can qualify and what the details are for the requirements.

 

The CDC document is at 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/CDC-Conditional-Sail-Order_10_30_2020-p.pdf

 

Pages 31-35 seem to answer many of the questions raised on CC.

Yes I think it is a good approach.  Cruising is still a risk for many of us and it is beneficial to see the cruise lines revise operations and have crew training and cruise simulations for a while.  Overall this is a step forward albeit a very slow and cautious one.

[nocl]

20 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Yes I think it is a good approach.  Cruising is still a risk for many of us and it is beneficial to see the cruise lines revise operations and have crew training and cruise simulations for a while.  Overall this is a step forward albeit a very slow and cautious one.

Now we see if the cruise lines embrace the framework and work to get certified or if they say it is too difficult and oppose the requirements. Hopefully the former. The testing of crew weekly with reports going to CDC.  The testing of passengers at embarkation and disembarkation. Would certainly provide the CDC a way to keep an eye on things.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 30, 2020 by nocl

[Algebralovr]

I think they will embrace the possibility and get started as soon as they can.  My assumption is the newest ships will return to service first.  So, Apex and Edge will be the first to be put back into service, and who knows after that.

 

The 7 day maximum stinks, though.  This means my next two cruises are going to be canceled.

[chengkp75]

49 minutes ago, nocl said:

Now we see if the cruise lines embrace the framework and work to get certified or if they say it is too difficult and oppose the requirements. Hopefully the former. The testing of crew weekly with reports going to CDC.  The testing of passengers at embarkation and disembarkation. Would certainly provide the CDC a way to keep an eye on things.

 

 

 

 

 

 

One difficulty that I see, is that it requires the EDC (enhanced data collection) about crew to be submitted 28 days prior to a ship entering US waters, if it left within the past 6 months, and I don't know if the lines kept up this reporting when they left US waters.  And, it still requires the cruise line to have written agreements with health care providers and quarantine accommodations, not just being able to come into port and send a hundred to the hospital.  It also quietly says that if a cruise is cut short because the cases reach a trigger level, that passengers' "future travel may be restricted", implying enforced quarantine.

[nocl]

43 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

One difficulty that I see, is that it requires the EDC (enhanced data collection) about crew to be submitted 28 days prior to a ship entering US waters, if it left within the past 6 months, and I don't know if the lines kept up this reporting when they left US waters.  And, it still requires the cruise line to have written agreements with health care providers and quarantine accommodations, not just being able to come into port and send a hundred to the hospital.  It also quietly says that if a cruise is cut short because the cases reach a trigger level, that passengers' "future travel may be restricted", implying enforced quarantine.

It also has passenger travel by non-commercial means in case of Covid on board.

 

It certainly put fairly tight monitoring and clearly puts any costs on the cruise line in case of a problem.

 

I expect that the cruise lines will not consider this to be a good outcome, because it give them very strict reporting and testing requirements and clearly creates substantial new requirements, some of which could be long term.  It also means no way to hide any issues that show up during the restart.

 

The Covid warning requirements are to cruise passengers, what the surgeon generals cigarette warnings were to smokers.

 

I think that it is 50/50 if he cruise lines move to restart under these terms

Edited October 30, 2020 by nocl

[LGW59]

14 minutes ago, nocl said:

It also has passenger travel by non-commercial means in case of Covid on board.

 

It certainly put fairly tight monitoring and clearly puts any costs on the cruise line in case of a problem.

 

I expect that the cruise lines will not consider this to be a good outcome, because it give them very strict reporting and testing requirements and clearly creates substantial new requirements, some of which could be long term.  It also means no way to hide any issues that show up during the restart.

 

The Covid warning requirements are to cruise passengers, what the surgeon generals cigarette warnings were to smokers.

 

I think that it is 50/50 if he cruise lines move to restart under these terms

I LOVE cruising, love it.  That said, the cruise lines are of course looking at their bottom line, that to me means $$$$ come first. Crew and passengers are next, though I don't know in which order they fall.  Unfortunately in many past various disease outbreaks on ships, they "seem" to have just gone through the PR motions as needed, "washy washy".  In early stages of COVID, I honestly feel they contributed to it, thinking, we can get through this, it will pass, like all of the others.   

[chengkp75]

Another quiet note they added is that while these requirements are still "emergency orders", because they have held a "request for information" and had the required time delay after that "request" period (which I believe was the real reason they wanted the last extension of the no sail order), they can change these to permanent regulations without any further request for information or time delay.  This is basically what I thought would happen, where they used the time to get regulations ready (even if they are not claiming them as regulations now), that will become permanent, and where the contingent permit will become basically a certificate of compliance for a cruise ship to sail in US waters from now on, regardless of the status of the covid pandemic.  There are still hurdles to overcome, like getting Florida hospitals to sign agreements to take on possibly hundreds of patients all at once from a cruise ship outbreak.

[shipgeeks]

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

One difficulty that I see, is that it requires the EDC (enhanced data collection) about crew to be submitted 28 days prior to a ship entering US waters, if it left within the past 6 months, and I don't know if the lines kept up this reporting when they left US waters.  

For ships that have been waiting in the Bahamas, and coming in to Miami or Port Everglades regularly, are they considered to have left US waters?

 

[phoenix_dream]

2 minutes ago, shipgeeks said:

For ships that have been waiting in the Bahamas, and coming in to Miami or Port Everglades regularly, are they considered to have left US waters?

 

I'm no expert, but I know for gambling purposes and the like, once they are 3 miles out from shore they have left US waters.  Maybe there are exceptions; if so I'm sure others will educate us.

[chengkp75]

13 minutes ago, shipgeeks said:

For ships that have been waiting in the Bahamas, and coming in to Miami or Port Everglades regularly, are they considered to have left US waters?

 

 

9 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

I'm no expert, but I know for gambling purposes and the like, once they are 3 miles out from shore they have left US waters.  Maybe there are exceptions; if so I'm sure others will educate us.

3 miles is the state limit, 12 miles is the US territorial limit.  I believe that ships that have made periodic port calls to the US during the shutdown have had to submit the EDC report before getting clearance to enter US waters.  But, joining crew may skew that data, haven't seen the actual mechanics of the EDC reporting.

[Arizona Wildcat]

7 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

 

3 miles is the state limit, 12 miles is the US territorial limit.  I believe that ships that have made periodic port calls to the US during the shutdown have had to submit the EDC report before getting clearance to enter US waters.  But, joining crew may skew that data, haven't seen the actual mechanics of the EDC reporting.

Would think most existing crew have been on board for 28 days.  Wonder what the procedure will be as the ships bring crew on board.  Obviously crew changes will be much more complicated in the future with challenges in getting to the ship with quarantine or quarantines before they can assume their duties.

I had not noticed the repatriation requirements in a post.  Is it possible US departures would be limited to US and Canada passport holders?  Potential repatriation to many countries would be difficult to almost impossible today?

[LGW59]

2 hours ago, Algebralovr said:

I think they will embrace the possibility and get started as soon as they can.  My assumption is the newest ships will return to service first.  So, Apex and Edge will be the first to be put back into service, and who knows after that.

 

The 7 day maximum stinks, though.  This means my next two cruises are going to be canceled.

Probably, and many of us in same situation.  It is what is so rather than glass half empty, perhaps look at it as they need a starting point...let them get that going and see what happens.  We all have had disappointments during this pandemic.  I'm of the mind, OK, they have some semblance of a beginning, let them move forward, see the next steps. 

[phoenix_dream]

38 minutes ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Would think most existing crew have been on board for 28 days.  Wonder what the procedure will be as the ships bring crew on board.  Obviously crew changes will be much more complicated in the future with challenges in getting to the ship with quarantine or quarantines before they can assume their duties.

I had not noticed the repatriation requirements in a post.  Is it possible US departures would be limited to US and Canada passport holders?  Potential repatriation to many countries would be difficult to almost impossible today?

I think it's very likely that original cruises from the US will be US passengers only.  Considering Canada borders remain closed, I doubt Canadians will be included but things could change.

[tert333]

There are so many issues that Canadians will need to take into consideration, such as quarantine when they come back to Canada, along with the risk of no insurance coverage while we are away.  I do not plan on travelling until there is further clarity.   I love cruising, but not willing to take the risks now.   There may be others that are.

[33Minnie33]

Based on this statement...

‘The cruise ship operator must not sail or offer to sail on an itinerary longer than 7 days. CDC may shorten or lengthen the number of days permitted to sail based on public health considerations and as set forth in technical instructions or orders.’

What would you think on a B2B each cruise 7 days. 
We are Booked on the Edge, two separate reservation numbers B2B. 
I know everyone has questions and most likely don’t have answers but I just had to ask. 4 cruises cancelled in 2020 and 4 more booked in 2021. 
Also would Transatlantic Cruises coming back to the US be under the CDC regulations for no cruises over 7 days. 
Thanks

[wrk2cruise]

While I don't think it was specifically addressed I'm 99% sure they will not allow B2B until the time they extend the max cruise duration to longer than 7 days.

 

[jg51]

7 hours ago, wrk2cruise said:

While I don't think it was specifically addressed I'm 99% sure they will not allow B2B until the time they extend the max cruise duration to longer than 7 days.

 

.

We don't think that it is possible for anyone to say that he/she is ANY "% sure" -- from 0% all the way to 100% sure -- about anything at this point!

 

We have been saying, for some time, that the CDC and cruise lines ought to allow back-to-back(-to-back) cruising -- which is financially and otherwise beneficial to both guests and cruise lines -- under the following conditions:

 

(0)  Both/all cruises must end at the same disembarkation port, in case the second (or subsequent) cruise cannot be begun by the guest.

 

(1)  Consecutive cruisers [Cc's] must be tested, on board, near the end of the first cruise -- and must pass the test -- to satisfy the cruise line.  [Ditto for the second of three cruises.]

 

(2)  Despite passing the above test, Cc's must pack all their belongings and fully disembark at the end of the first cruise -- to satisfy the CDC.  [Ditto for the second of three cruises.]

 

(3)  Cc's must be tested, at dockside, upon disembarkation -- and must pass this test also, to be allowed to re-embark for the second (or third) cruise -- to satisfy the CDC.

 

(4)  If any test is failed, on or off the ship, the cruise line will assist the guest in changing flight reservations (if applicable) to be used after a  period of hospitalization or quarantine.

 

[wrk2cruise]

Of course my 99% only an indication of "I really don't think so".   We can agree to disagree.   Yes I want to B2B, I just moved my 11/10 day March B2B to 2022 after reading the CDC framework.  It's clear they are trying to avoid as much risk as possible at tremendous expense to get restarted.   It wouldn't surprise me if they didn't even have 7 day cruises in the first month of revenue cruises unless they do several non-revenue shorter test cruises leading up to 7 days before they do an actual revenue sailing.

 

While your proposed steps seem reasonable it adds additional process and cost presumably to Celebrity assuming they can fill the available berths with non B2B customers.    Or maybe they remove the B2B discount and add a B2B upcharge to cover the additional onboard testing.

 

Oh well I'm just in a bad mood for having done L&S on 3 cruises last night.   On a happy note I submitted the request at 4:30 on Friday afternoon and all 3 had been processed by 8 pm.

[Luckiestmanonearth]

18 hours ago, marienbad said:

CDC wanted to extend the no sail order to late February 2021 but the Trump administration required them to extend the order only to the end of October 2020.

it seems to me that these CDC requirements will effectively accomplish what they wanted in the first place. These requirements can be modified as conditions require. If Biden wins the Presidency, I think that will strengthen CDC’s hand.

My thoughts are quite simple and fact based
I don’t trust this directive one iota

 

Fact - The CDC top dog is a position appointed by the President and does not require Senate approval.

 

Fact - This announcement comes within a week of the election

 

You do the math.  Such a directive seems way to early for me

[chengkp75]

14 minutes ago, Luckiestmanonearth said:

 

 

My thoughts are quite simple and fact based
I don’t trust this directive one iota

 

Fact - The CDC top dog is a position appointed by the President and does not require Senate approval.

 

Fact - This announcement comes within a week of the election

 

You do the math.  Such a directive seems way to early for me

I won't comment on any part of your political ideas, but will give my timeline of this.

 

In September, the CDC issued a "request for information", which is a pre-courser to changing federal regulations.  The other pre-courser is a time delay after the "request".  The CDC asked for a very long extension of the no sail order, hoping to get at least a month out of it, but knowing they wouldn't get the whole thing.  They got their month.  Now, the conditional sailing certificate contains virtually all the requirements of the no sail order, and since they have had the "request" period, and the time delay period, they can make any or all of these measures permanent.  All I see is that the cruise executives now know that the requirements of the no sail order will not be "going away" as they'd hoped, and so they need to pony up and start meeting them if they want to restart.  This is not a free pass to start cruising by any means.

[Luckiestmanonearth]

9 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

I won't comment on any part of your political ideas, but will give my timeline of this.

 

In September, the CDC issued a "request for information", which is a pre-courser to changing federal regulations.  The other pre-courser is a time delay after the "request".  The CDC asked for a very long extension of the no sail order, hoping to get at least a month out of it, but knowing they wouldn't get the whole thing.  They got their month.  Now, the conditional sailing certificate contains virtually all the requirements of the no sail order, and since they have had the "request" period, and the time delay period, they can make any or all of these measures permanent.  All I see is that the cruise executives now know that the requirements of the no sail order will not be "going away" as they'd hoped, and so they need to pony up and start meeting them if they want to restart.  This is not a free pass to start cruising by any means.

sorry but I’ll stay with the facts as I know them

[GeorgesGal]

Personally, I'd be happy to fly to The Bahamas to start my cruise, thus avoiding the CDC 'conditional requirements'. 

By the way, in the documents they state that these conditions can be made permanent without further requests for information from the public or governmental entities.

 

Perhaps the cruise lines should be/could be looking into this scenario - not beginning cruises out of US ports.