Fain Now Says Vaccines, Not New Protocols Will Allow Cruising To Restart

[twangster]

With promises or hopes of additional vaccination approvals coming, hopefully the "summer" timeframe for general availability will move closer.

[sandebeach]

My husband just announced that he is not getting on another cruise ship until he gets the vaccine. Hoping that, as older adults, we will be able to get vaccinated in February or March. 

[bucfan2]

1 hour ago, BeachyBrowns said:

 what are you going to say in June when you see photo/video of a bunch of healthy, vaccinated people setting sail?  A few tunes might change.

 

Let's hope that's true in June 2021...and 2022/2025/2030....

Edited December 14, 2020 by bucfan2

[ace2542]

I could have told you that. It is the only way to drive the risk down to a minimum.

[Ocean Boy]

1 hour ago, ace2542 said:

I could have told you that. It is the only way to drive the risk down to a minimum.

You have told us that. You have also told us that we will be wearing masks forever...and ever... and ever.

[Iamcruzin]

 

At this point the cruise lines should just wait it out until the vaccine is available to everyone. I just hope they don't run out before it's my turn.

 

 

[Iamcruzin]

9 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:

He’s right.
 

Hopefully vaccines will allow him to get a haircut as well. 😉

At least brush it. Looks like a home perm from the 80's

[Formula280SS]

27 minutes ago, Heymarco said:

Hey came across as utterly defeated to me. His message said more of Royal is done than there is hope for the future. Anyone else reading between lines or get that vibe? Maybe he’s always like that? 

 

Yep.

 

I don't think he is alone, CCL and NCL are in the same boat.  😲

 

He does "look" absolutely horrible.  Yikes.  One of the best ways to deal with this long pandemic is to really work hard to stay healthy, stay in shape IMO.  I think he missed the fitness center most of the time since March.  😟

 

Look, the big three know.  Bondholders know.  The vaccine roll out, timing in North America and Europe somewhere in to the 2nd quarter at best (absorption population wide one or two quarters later), makes each of their debt based funding (and some equity raises), run almost completely dry heading in to the 4th quarter of 2021.

 

It (the numbers, crunched) is really bleak.

 

If they make it, they're so leveraged, and even that was thanks to the US FED, they've been massively decimated financially.  It has to be utterly hard to endure such a collapse of an entire company (and industry) in such a short time period.

 

 

[twangster]

They are too big for their creditors to let them fail.  With light in the tunnel it isn't bleak at all.  

 

Cruisers will be fine.  Stockholders in for the long term are fine (in a decade).  If you are new to the stock roller coaster ride you might avoid a loss, maybe.  

 

It will be months but ships will sail again.

 

In other words the stock may drop again but that won't be the end.

 

Edited December 15, 2020 by twangster

[ace2542]

11 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

You have also told us that we will be wearing masks forever...and ever... and ever

I would if I was them especially if one outbreak puts the next cruise at risk because we can't afford to lose the next cruise. Because if people are going to get locked down on a ship for a positive test I can see people not getting tested onboard if they think they have it. And if for one outbreak I have to rotate crew maybe? So a rotation and quarantine of existing crew? And I have to pay for that do I? And how are my crew quarantined? In hotel for 2 weeks? Yeah we have that kind of money 17 months into this outbreak.

[crazyank]

17 hours ago, SilkySal said:

The light is still lit at the end of the tunnel

double post

Edited December 15, 2020 by crazyank

[crazyank]

17 hours ago, SilkySal said:

The light is still lit at the end of the tunnel

All to often the light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train.

[ipeeinthepool]

17 hours ago, rimmit said:

At least he’s finally admitting what most of us have been saying on CC since March.  I am honestly not sure if he was in true denial or just trying to protect the stock price.

 

Just wish he’d reflect that sentiment in their cancellation timelines.

 

It's not his fault.  He was listening to the experts and the experts keep changing their minds.

[ipeeinthepool]

9 hours ago, Heymarco said:

Hey came across as utterly defeated to me. His message said more of Royal is done than there is hope for the future. Anyone else reading between lines or get that vibe? Maybe he’s always like that? 

 

 I think the Quantum cruise crushed him.  He can try to put a positive spin on it that the procedures worked, but the end result is that false positive testing ended the cruise.  If you have a couple thousand people onboard you will get frequent false positives and then you need to quarantine and isolate everyone until the tests verify the result.  This was in a country that has a very low Covid infection.  If you try this with a more heavily infected population, there will also be some true infections onboard because the pre-boarding tests can't catch everything.  Remember the Seabourn cruise and that was only a handful of passengers.  

 

I think he has finally realized the recommendations from the experts on the Healthy Sail Panel to try and create a bubble won't work.  Cruising can't resume safely without a vaccine.

Edited December 15, 2020 by ipeeinthepool

[bouhunter]

18 hours ago, livingonthebeach said:

His use of the cliché Groundhog Day is particularly odd, IMO.

Not odd at all.  They wake up every morning in the same situation, not knowing when the ships will sail again.

[bouhunter]

1 hour ago, ace2542 said:

I would if I was them especially if one outbreak puts the next cruise at risk because we can't afford to lose the next cruise. Because if people are going to get locked down on a ship for a positive test I can see people not getting tested onboard if they think they have it. And if for one outbreak I have to rotate crew maybe? So a rotation and quarantine of existing crew? And I have to pay for that do I? And how are my crew quarantined? In hotel for 2 weeks? Yeah we have that kind of money 17 months into this outbreak.

Another bizarre rambling wacky post.  Always good for a morning laugh. 🙂

 

[livingonthebeach]

4 minutes ago, bouhunter said:

Not odd at all.  They wake up every morning in the same situation, not knowing when the ships will sail again.

 

I guess you can look at it that way, although it doesn't inspire much confidence to the audience they are targeting. These execs surely must have more of an insight into the resumption than the average Joe. 

[bouhunter]

7 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

These execs surely must have more of an insight into the resumption than the average Joe. 

I wouldn't be too sure of that.

[Milwaukee Eight]

7 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

I guess you can look at it that way, although it doesn't inspire much confidence to the audience they are targeting. These execs surely must have more of an insight into the resumption than the average Joe. 

I believe his reference to “Groundhog Day” was about the 1993 Movie Groundhog Day where the lead actor Bill Murray woke up every morning reliving the same day over and over again until he got it right. 
 

M8

[mek]

26 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

I guess you can look at it that way, although it doesn't inspire much confidence to the audience they are targeting. These execs surely must have more of an insight into the resumption than the average Joe. 

Until recently I think they thought they knew, but now it's becoming apparent to them that cruising isn't going to start up w/o a vaccine.

It's going to take well into the summer for everyone who wants the vaccine to be able to get it - and I don't even think that will include children.  What will people do who want to take a family cruise but can't because their children haven't been vaccinated?  (Assuming that will be a requirement to sail.)

 

Edited December 15, 2020 by mek

[Milwaukee Eight]

4 minutes ago, mek said:

Until recently I think they thought they knew, but now it's becoming apparent to them that cruising isn't going to start up w/o a vaccine.

It's going to take well into the summer for everyone who wants the vaccine to be able to get it - and I don't even think that will include children.  What will people do who want to take a family cruise but can't because their children haven't been vaccinated?  (Assuming that will be required to sail.)

 

And the reason why the protocols will remain and a vaccine will be required is their is no data yet if one vaccinated can spread the virus or how long the immune response will last. 
 

When will one will need another dose or booster shot to continue to fight off the virus?  Once herd immunity is reached, could be years, then life may get back to somewhat normal. 
 

M8

Edited December 15, 2020 by Milwaukee Eight

[ace2542]

24 minutes ago, bouhunter said:

Another bizarre rambling wacky post.  Always good for a morning laugh. 🙂

 

RCI won't be here this time next year if cruising doesn't resume you know by summer at the very latest. And if they have to shut the down ship for 1 case after it does resume they either enforce vaccination and mask wearing to their best to prevent that for as long as the demand of shut down if one case is discovered remains. Or just close down. And how long can they operate at 50% full or 60% full or operate without attempting to fill any many cabins as they can for each cruise? Not very long by the sounds of it.

[mek]

3 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

And the reason why the protocols will remain and a vaccine will be required is their is no data yet if one vaccinated can spread the virus or how long the immune response will last. 
 

When will one will need another dose or booster shot to continue to fight off the virus?  Once herd immunity is reached, could be years, then life may get back to somewhat normal. 
 

M8

Well if everyone is  required to be vaccinated in order to sail then it won't make much difference if people can spread the virus or not - at least on a ship.

I realize there might be up to  10% who could still come down with Covid, but at that point it wouldn't be necessary to quarantine the ship - they could simply treat sick passengers.

[livingonthebeach]

13 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I believe his reference to “Groundhog Day” was about the 1993 Movie Groundhog Day where the lead actor Bill Murray woke up every morning reliving the same day over and over again until he got it right. 
 

M8

 

That's where the metaphor comes from but I wouldn't have used that analogy in the context of a pep talk to travel partners. 

[ace2542]

11 minutes ago, mek said:

Until recently I think they thought they knew, but now it's becoming apparent to them that cruising isn't going to start up w/o a vaccine.

It's going to take well into the summer for everyone who wants the vaccine to be able to get it - and I don't even think that will include children.  What will people do who want to take a family cruise but can't because their children haven't been vaccinated?  (Assuming that will be required to sail.)

 

You have order of 100 million moderna with option in contract to by 400 million more so 500 million there. That is enough to vaccinate 250 million. Pfizer vaccine 100 million with option for more so those 2 alone will given enough quantity for the entire country to at least be offered one. And that will happen by April or May I have heard in some Media. I think they will insist upon if it is available to people and make exceptions in which case where governments have not made it available to for instance children.