The cruise industry won't return to pre-pandemic levels until 2030: Analyst

[LongHill44]

Sad news

 

https://www.aol.com/finance/cruise-industry-won-t-return-113723185.html

[ONECRUISER]

I disagree...

[taglovestocruise]

22 minutes ago, ONECRUISER said:

I disagree...

+1

[S.A.M.J.R.]

I don't think it's a terrible prediction.  Assuming the vaccines work "as advertised", you're still looking at 6 months to a year to get it out to everyone.  

 

Even after that happens, you're going to have people that are nervous about getting a cruise ship and SOME virus breaks out and now you're trapped.  

 

So not only do you need to beat covid, you need to beat the PERCEPTION of a possible wide spread illness on a cruise ship. 

 

Now, this is actually a good thing for cruisers.  If lines have problems filling their ships (even to reduced capacity if needed), that means lower prices. 

[BSR]

9 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

+1

+2

[Hoopster95]

I just watched and listened to the entire video, front to back.

Nothing said was alarmist or totally off the wall in my opinion.

[Ashland]

1 hour ago, BSR said:

+2

+3

[molly361]

26 minutes ago, Ashland said:

+3

+4

[TravelerThom]

Okay, the majority of responders so far agree with the the person who disagreed that “the cruise industry won’t return to pre-pandemic levels until 2030”. In other words presumably you think that the cruise industry will return to peak profitability   (the term used in the actual article) before 2030. 
So when do each of you think peak profitability will return and why? It is sure not going to be this year or next. Providing a meaningful response to that question requires considerable more thought than just blindly disagreeing with the article. 

[firefly333]

4 hours ago, LongHill44 said:

Sad news

 

https://www.aol.com/finance/cruise-industry-won-t-return-113723185.html

"And I think prices will stay low for quite some time.”

 

I think the bargains have dried up. This analyst thinks prices are quite low. ...the prices dropped for a while, but pretty much have recovered.

 

Though I think ccl will have a harder and longer road to profitability than rcl. That $600 obc and other obc some got to keep their bookings, stacked up, some have over 1k obc. No profit that way, imo. Rcl didnt give a lot of big cash incentives, they offered more flexibility and more loyalty pts. I dont think carnival will turn a profit until after 2023 when those large obc dry up.

 

So the article is ge real, some might take many years to turn a profit. I think is in a stronger position than some..

[Iplayslots]

5 hours ago, LongHill44 said:

Sad news

 

https://www.aol.com/finance/cruise-industry-won-t-return-113723185.html

I thought my father was the last AOL user. I guess there are two left.

[molly361]

5 hours ago, Iplayslots said:

I thought my father was the last AOL user. I guess there are two left.

make that three😇

[ace2542]

14 hours ago, LongHill44 said:

Sad news

 

https://www.aol.com/finance/cruise-industry-won-t-return-113723185.html

And you will be still be wearing masks on ships in 2030 vaccine or no vaccine the CDC will insist upon it. Mark my words.

[Milwaukee Eight]

2 hours ago, molly361 said:

make that three😇

The boss still has an AOL email. Does that count?

 

M8

[ace2542]

14 hours ago, LongHill44 said:

Sad news

 

https://www.aol.com/finance/cruise-industry-won-t-return-113723185.html

Something else to think about a question we cannot possibly answer and could not answer even if we are a true family on here because this forum is not that big and few people on here know each other in the real world. That question is how many out of the near 1.8 million deaths have been cruisers? If 5% of them that is what 90k plus cruisers killed by the pandemic then that is 90k customer the industry has lost. Never mind trying to consider how tough it might be for a lot of the older cruisers to get travel insurance after this and I doubt many will risk travelling without it. The travel agents will tell you differently but that 2030 could be quite accurate.

Edited December 23, 2020 by ace2542

[Ken at the beach]

10 hours ago, TravelerThom said:

Okay, the majority of responders so far agree with the the person who disagreed that “the cruise industry won’t return to pre-pandemic levels until 2030”. In other words presumably you think that the cruise industry will return to peak profitability   (the term used in the actual article) before 2030. 
So when do each of you think peak profitability will return and why? It is sure not going to be this year or next. Providing a meaningful response to that question requires considerable more thought than just blindly disagreeing with the article. 

Depends which measurement you are using for pre pandemic levels.

 

Since the headline only said pre pandemic levels I had assumed and I think most may have taken it this way that it was referring to the number of people cruising which I certainly see getting back to pre pandemic levels before 2030.  Most people I feel only responded to the headline and did not read the article.

 

If it is based on profitability then yes it could very well be 2030 or longer with the Billions in loans that need to be paid off.

[molly361]

28 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

The boss still has an AOL email. Does that count?

 

M8

That's what I have as well

[bouhunter]

2 hours ago, ace2542 said:

And you will be still be wearing masks on ships in 2030 vaccine or no vaccine 

No, if that's true I won't be there.

Edited December 23, 2020 by bouhunter

[bouhunter]

12 hours ago, TravelerThom said:

 Providing a meaningful response to that question requires considerable more thought than just blindly disagreeing with the article. 

Some dweeb financial analyst pretending to think he knows what will be in 10 years (about ANYTHING) doesn't merit a "meaningful response".   What a joke. 

Edited December 23, 2020 by bouhunter

[notmyrealnameoremail]

12 hours ago, TravelerThom said:

Okay, the majority of responders so far agree with the the person who disagreed that “the cruise industry won’t return to pre-pandemic levels until 2030”. In other words presumably you think that the cruise industry will return to peak profitability   (the term used in the actual article) before 2030. 
So when do each of you think peak profitability will return and why? It is sure not going to be this year or next. Providing a meaningful response to that question requires considerable more thought than just blindly disagreeing with the article. 

I suspect it will be much sooner, 2025ish.  The only real evidence he discusses is his survey that 80% of noncruisers aren't interested in cruising in the future.  That seems to be a really bad use of a single statistic.

 

First,  what percentage of noncruisers said they were interested in cruising before the pandemic?  The change in that number would tell us more than the number he cites.

 

Next, the survey was taken at a time when things were, and still are, very bad, but people's attitudes change.  Here in the US, there has been a significant increase in percentage of people who say they are willing to get a COVID vaccine over the past couple of months as more information becomes available and the possibility of getting it becomes  real.

 

Finally,  there are about 7 Billion people that have never cruised, so even if the survey was done well and no one changes their mind, that leaves 1.4 Billion potential new cruisers.

 

I have other issues with the analysis, but this alone makes me deeply skeptical of its quality,

 

This is only my opinion and everyone is entitled to their own.

 

Tom

Edited December 23, 2020 by notmyrealnameoremail
typo

[bouhunter]

17 hours ago, LongHill44 said:

Sad news

 

https://www.aol.com/finance/cruise-industry-won-t-return-113723185.html

The only thing sad about it is that some financial analyst actually thinks he can predict what any industry will look like TEN YEARS FROM NOW and it ends up being a topic of discussion here.  And it is not "news".

Edited December 23, 2020 by bouhunter

[FSHLOT]

Seems like everyone of these "so-called" experts have some people believing this stuff. To predict what will happen 10yrs. from now is just ridiculous.

[FSHLOT]

5 minutes ago, bouhunter said:

The only thing sad about it is that some financial analyst actually thinks he can predict what any industry will look like TEN YEARS FROM NOW and it ends up being a topic of discussion here.  And it is not "news".

Haha. We think alike... I posted basically the samething at the same time....😀

[bouhunter]

Just now, FSHLOT said:

Haha. We think alike... I posted basically the samething at the same time....😀

You know what they say, great minds think alike 🙂

 

[LuCruise]

It depends on how quickly the vaccine has an impact and the actual impact (eradicates the virus or just lessens it to a manageable level).  For how long will we have to wear masks in our daily lives? Will all places open up to visitors?  For how long will we have to social distance from both relatives and strangers when we leave our house?  Until masks, social distancing are not required then cruise ships won't be back to normal, but doesn't mean that they can't run in a safe manner.  

 

Also, a good point was mentioned above that financially it will take the cruise lines a long time to get back as they will be out of service 1-2 years.  That's a lot of lost revenue.

 

I know this is reality and our current situation, but wish posts on here weren't all so negative and doom and gloom.  Like many, I really love cruising and can't wait to get back, is some (safe) form or another.  It's the best family holiday, and also a get away for DH and I.