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Herd Immunity?

Gracie115

By Gracie115,
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Gracie115

Gracie115

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1 minute ago, lyndarra said:

The writer of the article is a surgical oncologist, not a virologist or epidemiologist or any other related ologist. Head in clouds stuff IMO.

 

Possibly but only time will tell....as I said he is correct that infections have dropped dramatically in the US, and that is not due to vaccines as there have not been enough of them to make a dramatic difference yet.

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lyndarra Holiday Sharing Rare

lyndarra

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14 minutes ago, Gracie115 said:

 

Maybe so but he IS correct that infections have dropped dramatically in the US in the last month.

There are reasons for this not the least of which people are now more aware and doing what they can to reduce transmission, masks, social distancing, isolating etc.

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Gracie115

Gracie115

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Just now, lyndarra said:

There are reasons for this not the least of which people are now more aware and doing what they can to reduce transmission, masks, social distancing, isolating etc.

 

I don't think that there any more doing that than were doing it 2-3 months ago.  

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lyndarra Holiday Sharing Rare

lyndarra

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https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19

At the time writing WHO state that the percentage of vaccinated population required for herd immunity from CV-19 is not known. Then there are mutations to contend with.

Note polio threshold 80%, measles 95%.

IIRC, estimates of voluntary vaccination were somewhere around 65%. What of the rest of the population? How long will it take to reach even 65%.

I'm open to correction by those with more detailed knowledge than I.

April? We wish.

 

 

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CroozFanatic

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56 minutes ago, lyndarra said:

The writer of the article is a surgical oncologist, not a virologist or epidemiologist or any other related ologist. Head in clouds stuff IMO.

 

Unfortunately, the virologists and the epidemiologists are cleaning up (getting rich) and have no incentive for the pandemic to end. A surgical oncologist probably doesn't give AF one way or the other.

 

How much did Royal and NCL pay the scientists on the Healthy Sail Panel? No corona, no Healthy Sail Panel, no bank for the experts. No surgical oncologists on the Healthy Sail Panel signing their name for $100,000.

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broberts Excellent Advice! Rare

broberts

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15 minutes ago, CroozFanatic said:

 

Unfortunately, the virologists and the epidemiologists are cleaning up (getting rich) and have no incentive for the pandemic to end. A surgical oncologist probably doesn't give AF one way or the other.

 

How much did Royal and NCL pay the scientists on the Healthy Sail Panel? No corona, no Healthy Sail Panel, no bank for the experts. No surgical oncologists on the Healthy Sail Panel signing their name for $100,000.

 

You shouldn't project.

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broberts Excellent Advice! Rare

broberts

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17 minutes ago, CroozFanatic said:

 

I think this is a personal insult. Add to the discussion if you want; otherwise....

 

Yet you have no trouble insulting an entire profession. How was that adding constructively to the discussion?

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amyr

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I thought the drop in cases was sort of expected after the holiday surge?  A combination of that and the beginnings of the vaccination rollout?  Here's a good, simple article that spells out what herd immunity looks like in the US.  We'll need at least 200,000,000 of us to either be vaccinated or have recovered from the virus.  I'm not sure our testing has been robust enough to have an accurate picture on the number of recovered, but it's nowhere near what we need I wouldn't think.

 

Mayo Clinic

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Gracie115

Gracie115

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The article came from a doctor at John's Hopkins.  I give him a lot of credibility just for that.  Yes numbers dropped after the Christmas surge, but they continue to drop long after that.  Florida's daily numbers a month ago were around 15000 now they average between 5 & 6000 most days.  

 

Wisconsin numbers have dropped by almost 80% in the last month.  Same with Connecticut and so many other states.  

 

This is not due to the vaccine as enough haven't been given yet from what I've read, however, with the rollout gaining momentum as it is perhaps the author is not that far off.  Maybe April is a bit too soon to say we will reach herd immunity but hopefully by summer we will be much closer to it, at least here in the USA.  Fingers crossed anyway!!🙂

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Lazz

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It has been suggested that the reason for the reduction in the number of positive cases is because the previous testing has been too sensitive.  The sensitivity has been reduced and that has led to a decline in positive cases.  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/experts-us-covid-19-positivity-rate-high-due-to-too-sensitive-tests/ar-BB18wE8B

 

https://sentinelksmo.org/kdhe-quietly-reduced-cycle-threshold-on-covid-tests/

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Miaminice "Live from...." Rare

Miaminice

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3 hours ago, Gracie115 said:

 

Maybe so but he IS correct that infections have dropped dramatically in the US in the last month.


😂 from abysmal to disastrous... big deal! whoop whoop!

 

I don’t get why people can set aside all logic and reality just because some articles say what they would like to hear or what they would prefer to happen.
 

Edited by Miaminice
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keesar Great Review Rare

keesar

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8 minutes ago, Miaminice said:


😂 from abysmal to disastrous... big deal! whoop whoop!

 

I don’t get why people can set aside all logic and reality just because some articles say what they would like to hear or what they would prefer to happen.
 

 

Well said.  I suggest some review the definition of "confirmation bias".  

 

 

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