Herd Immunity?

[broberts]

While the improved situation is wonderful we should not be celebrating too much. At least 1,500 deaths are still being reported each day. An annual rate of nearly 550,000.

[CroozFanatic]

31 minutes ago, Gracie115 said:

The article came from a doctor at John's Hopkins.  I give him a lot of credibility just for that.  Yes numbers dropped after the Christmas surge, but they continue to drop long after that.  Florida's daily numbers a month ago were around 15000 now they average between 5 & 6000 most days.  

 

Wisconsin numbers have dropped by almost 80% in the last month.  Same with Connecticut and so many other states.  

 

This is not due to the vaccine as enough haven't been given yet from what I've read, however, with the rollout gaining momentum as it is perhaps the author is not that far off.  Maybe April is a bit too soon to say we will reach herd immunity but hopefully by summer we will be much closer to it, at least here in the USA.  Fingers crossed anyway!!🙂

 

275,000 to 70,000 in six weeks...

 

six weeks from now is the end of the first week of April...70% drop is 20,000 cases/day...may or may not happen. Hope so.

[Basketball wife]

The hunt for herd immunity: Suddenly, the U.S. seems in better shape on COVID-19
 

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5921179?__twitter_impression=true

[Gracie115]

43 minutes ago, Miaminice said:

😂 from abysmal to disastrous... big deal! whoop whoop!

 

I don’t get why people can set aside all logic and reality just because some articles say what they would like to hear or what they would prefer to happen.
 

 

I am not setting aside all logic.  I am looking at many sides of the same topic.... I am not going to go for the worst case scenario that so many want to cling to and will remain hopeful that things truly will improve sooner than later.  If I'm wrong, I'm wrong....but I'd hardly call the reduction in cases "disastrous"  it is, on the contrary, good and hopefully the reduction will continue.  

[broberts]

There is at least one fundamental error in the op referenced article. If its statistics are valid, (there is some doubt about this), the argument double counts those with natural immunity that have been vaccinated. Such a fundamental error suggests a carelessness with data that puts the entire premise into question.

[Miaminice]

26 minutes ago, Gracie115 said:

 

but I'd hardly call the reduction in cases "disastrous"  it is, on the contrary, good and hopefully the reduction will continue.  

Neither did I... yes, there is a reduction. A reduction from abysmal numbers to still desastrous numbers - so no reason to start a party. That’s what I am saying.

 

Since we live in Germany and have roots in Florida, we obviously watch both very closely. The numbers in Florida - population 21 million - alone were generally worse than in Germany with a population of 83 million. I am not even talking about the rest of the US ... and believe me - besides being ashamed of it - it breaks my heart.

 

Edited February 20, 2021 by Miaminice

[hcat]

Many  places in Fl are doing well...and many are getting vaccines, wearing  their masks and getting lots of Vitamin D sunshine..

[TeeRick]

First off we need to realize that herd immunity is not some magic milestone achieved on a given day.  It is a gradual process and any amount of immunity that develops (such as what's happening now) even below the theoretical threshold is a very positive thing.  Immunity in a population is from: 1) vaccinations, 2) natural immunity (like most kids), and immunity from previous infections.  It all adds up.  And it varies up and down- due to waning immunity and uptick of variant viruses.  And it will be different of course in every part and country of the world.  A lot of factors involved.

 

So here on CC, I am of the opinion these herd immunity threads per se will just be speculation and be mostly not on topic.  Instead I personally think that we should post on a different version of this general topic.  How will herd immunity relate to getting us back to cruising?  Is there a threshold that the CDC wants to see?  What about other countries?  Different standards?  If countries exceed their stated threshold targets, will travel and cruising be allowed in the future without the vaccine requirements?

[Gracie115]

59 minutes ago, Basketball wife said:

The hunt for herd immunity: Suddenly, the U.S. seems in better shape on COVID-19
 

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5921179?__twitter_impression=true

 

Interesting articles.

 

I'm a glass half full kind of person and remain hopeful that things are finally turning the corner, it's nice to see some professionals (John's Hopkins doctors)  that share that feeling.  

 

Only time will tell....

[Gracie115]

4 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

 So here on CC, I am of the opinion these herd immunity threads per se will just be speculation and be mostly not on topic.  Instead I personally think that we should post on a different version of this general topic.  How will herd immunity relate to getting us back to cruising?  Is there a threshold that the CDC wants to see?  What about other countries?  Different standards?  If countries exceed their stated threshold targets, will travel and cruising be allowed in the future without the vaccine requirements?

 

Good points, only one I think I can answer is the last one.  I suspect that after what happened on the HAL & Princess ships last spring that vaccines will be required, at least for the foreseeable future.

[JRG]

The director for Los Angeles County Dept of Health Services is estimating that approximately 1/3 of Los Angeles County is now immune to Covid-19.  Just got the newsfeed so it is hot off the press.

 

They are not saying it is Herd Immunity,  they are saying is is displaying some attributes that look like Herd Immunity.

 

 

Edited February 20, 2021 by JRG

[JRG]

3 minutes ago, JRG said:

The director for Los Angeles County Dept of Health Services is estimating that approximately 1/3 of Los Angeles County is now immune to Covid-19.  Just got the newsfeed so it is hot off the press.

 

The other 2/3 of LA County is still waking up from last nights party so they haven't seen the news.

 

Later today,  they will be celebrating in the streets like it is 1999 !

 

(I'm just joking.......nobody will be celebrating in the streets like it is 1999)

 

 

[Arizona Wildcat]

2 hours ago, Lazz said:

It has been suggested that the reason for the reduction in the number of positive cases is because the previous testing has been too sensitive.  The sensitivity has been reduced and that has led to a decline in positive cases.  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/experts-us-covid-19-positivity-rate-high-due-to-too-sensitive-tests/ar-BB18wE8B

 

https://sentinelksmo.org/kdhe-quietly-reduced-cycle-threshold-on-covid-tests/

There are a couple reasons for the drop.  In Arizona some 10% of the population have been diagnosed with COVID.  Another 5% have been vaccinated with probably 10% that had COVID and were not diagnosed.  That alone would drop cases.

Throw in the 50% drop in testing and not hard to see the drop.

Also remember the current vaccines do not prevent you getting Covid or passing it to others.  Only reduces likelihood of getting Covid and severity of disease if infected.

Herd immunity in April of this year with 30% - 40% vaccinated.  The numbers don't work.

[NMTraveller]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-18/global-covid-19-infection-rates-much-higher-research-coronavirus/12894424

 

If would be nice if they had estimates that were close to the number of people infected.  Unfortunately the asympotomatic cases and the lack of a consistent antibody test do not give us good estimates.  Even the CDCs own website attempts to estimate the symptomatic cases that are grossly underreported.  Follow the science?  The predictions of how many people were asymptomatic seems more like the weather prediction.  It would also vary by region.

 

The places that had the highest spikes are now having the highest drops.  Sounds like some immunity is coming into play.

 

I have not seen an increase in mask wearing.  I have travelled and nothing has changed.  There are rules but the rules are laxly enforced.  The terminals are crowded and the airplanes are more crowded than they were as the middle seats are now being sold.

 

 

[deadzone1003]

So far, is he the only person of any stature who has mentioned the drop in cases?  If you look at almost any viral pandemic, the graph of cases per day looks like a bell curve - in the USA's scenario it looked more like a volcano.  Currently, we are coming down from the top of the volcano.  Each day there are fewer new cases.  Logic dictates that it will eventually go away as the virus has infected what we call the low hanging fruit.  Of course, the virus can mutate and cause another wave.  One question which we really don't know is how much of our population has already been infected by the virus, but do not know it?  Also, there is a large portion of the population that seem to be immuned or should I say the virus has a difficult time infecting.  Look at the Diamond Princess about 80% of the ship was apparently unaffected even though they were basically in a petri dish.  I don't know if the virus will go away by April -  the math indicates that it is doing that.  However, the other day I read Florida found their 1st South African variant case.  Right now, the current virus that is going around the USA is primarily the UK variant.  So, we just have to wait and see.     

[Tedferg]

When Could the United States Reach Herd Immunity? It’s Complicated. - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

 

NYT article summarizing possibilities, current trend and also if we ramp up vaccinations to 3 million per day. The latter could see Herd Immunity by April / May. They also mention the curve ball of mutations.

[jalves]

I heard the same thing.

[jalves]

4 hours ago, amyr said:

I thought the drop in cases was sort of expected after the holiday surge? 

Its more than just the expected drop after the holiday surge.

[TeeRick]

1 hour ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Also remember the current vaccines do not prevent you getting Covid or passing it to others.  Only reduces likelihood of getting Covid and severity of disease if infected.

 

With the mRNA vaccines only 5% of those vaccinated become positive for COVID with mild symptoms.  But it is becoming a bit more clear that these vaccines do reduce viral transmission.  Maybe not eliminate it entirely but definitely the vaccinated positive people (in the 5%) have much lower viral loads in their nasal passages.  Early on this was a big controversary because it was not able to be studied effectively in the clinic.  We keep going round and round on this subject on these threads.  But if vaccines in the real world (like Israel) are having an impact they are also reducing transmission.  Also you can correlate to other highly effective viral vaccines that have been used for many years.

[tevea100]

I've been trying to follow all the evidence on all sides. The big key here is how many have had it and were never identified? A great many articles I read saying current situation will be around until 2022 never take this into account they just look at vaccination rates. For months the CDC has been estimating that for every positive test there are anywhere from 4-11 people who have had it and didn't get tested or even know they had it. Based on this, April is not a crazy assumption. I know there are sharp divides about the virus, but more and more evidence is pointing to a few things. If you look overall at CA, FL, NY, NJ you'll find very similar numbers of cases and deaths based on population. Florida was drastically less restrictive with a larger elderly population. So are lockdowns really worth it? The other reality is that if you factor in those who have never known they had it the overall death rate is that of a truly bad flu season. Finally, with the rate of mutation do you really believe Covid is going away? I don't, I think it will be just like the annual flu and will constantly change. Time we figure out how to live with it.

[ECCruise]

49 minutes ago, tevea100 said:

The other reality is that if you factor in those who have never known they had it the overall death rate is that of a truly bad flu season. 

Maybe if you are only talking percentages.  But I think we are talking about real deaths here.

 

Average flu season fatalities are in the 30,000 range in US.  Current COVID deaths, 500,000.

 

Seasonal flu: 9 million – 45 million illnesses

Seasonal flu deaths: 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

[CroozFanatic]

Data don't lie, people do.

 

I think the data will dictate EVERYTHING.

 

The question is what number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths will permit cruising.

 

If current trends continue, cases will be about 20,000/day by the end of the first week of April....down 90% from the peak. That's enough for me.

 

If cases plateau at 40,000 and start rising because of the variants, we're SOL.

[4774Papa]

I am optimistic about this and plan to travel overseas in July and October this year.

 

On other threads on cc, some pessimists have opined that foreign travel and cruising will not  open up until 2 or 3 years.  That is really weak, the cruise lines would be bankrupt over and over by then.

 

[tevea100]

1 hour ago, ECCruise said:

Maybe if you are only talking percentages.  But I think we are talking about real deaths here.

 

Average flu season fatalities are in the 30,000 range in US.  Current COVID deaths, 500,000.

 

Seasonal flu: 9 million – 45 million illnesses

Seasonal flu deaths: 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

Not sure if you can see the screen shot I took, but shows flu deaths since 1900. Of course the really interesting thing that nobody knows is that the CDC estimates flu deaths every year as many states don't report them or only report for certain age groups. 

[ECCruise]

9 minutes ago, tevea100 said:

Not sure if you can see the screen shot I took, but shows flu deaths since 1900. Of course the really interesting thing that nobody knows is that the CDC estimates flu deaths every year as many states don't report them or only report for certain age groups. 

Yes.  I can see it.  And I can see that the total deaths from seasonal flu in 2018, per CDC, were 34,000.

 

Nowhere near the 1000 per 1 million deaths per month that the chart alleges, saying that 2018 flu deaths and 2020 COVID deaths are the same.

That is plain absurd.