Herd Immunity?

[cruisemom42]

1 hour ago, PTC DAWG said:

Don’t come here with good news, some people want none of it.  The NE portion of the country has been the big issue the entire time in regards to cases and deaths...they want the rest of the country to be miserable too. 

 

The state where you and I live has not done great. It has been a miserable year where I live, if it hasn't been for you then count yourself lucky.

 

[TeeRick]

8 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

Only 1 NE State out of the top 25 for cases per capita. And that portion of the country was largely blindsided in February and early March.

The rest of the country has no excuse.

 

States ranked by COVID cases.

Interesting.  If you sort the states into groups by similar by total population, then for the most populous states (say 8 million and above),  my home state of PA as well as VA and MI appear to be amongst the lowest in cases per 100,000.

Edited February 21, 2021 by TeeRick

[PTC DAWG]

20 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

Only 1 NE State out of the top 25 for cases per capita. And that portion of the country was largely blindsided in February and early March.

The rest of the country has no excuse.

 

States ranked by COVID cases.

What are you smoking?  Pass it around.  5 out of the top 6 DEATHS per capita are Northeast States.  Cases mean nothing in the big scheme....plenty of false negatives floating around.  

 

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/us-coronavirus-deaths-by-state-july-1.html

Edited February 21, 2021 by PTC DAWG

[ECCruise]

1 minute ago, PTC DAWG said:

What are you smoking?  Pass it around.  

 

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/us-coronavirus-deaths-by-state-july-1.html

What I am smoking allows me to differentiate between 2 common English words:
Cases and Deaths.

[4774Papa]

I live on coastal Georgia which has a fair amount of tourist from Canada, the NE USA and some from North Georgia.   We were doing great last year handling COVID-19, but with the Memorial Day and 4th of July weekends, we had an onslaught of tourist (many from out of state) that generally seemed to ignore masking, social distancing, etc.   Our numbers shot up because of that.   

 

When you look at the data for vaccinations most states are doing about the same, with a few like New Mexico, W. Virginia, North and South Dakota doing very well.  

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

Georgia has administered almost 1.8 million out of about 2.3 million doses.  

[PTC DAWG]

19 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

The state where you and I live has not done great. It has been a miserable year where I live, if it hasn't been for you then count yourself lucky.

 

Kids are in school here, most everywhere is open and seems to be doing fine.  I'm 20 miles south of the ATL airport....

Edited February 21, 2021 by PTC DAWG

[PTC DAWG]

Just now, 4774Papa said:

I live on coastal Georgia which has a fair amount of tourist from Canada, the NE USA and some from North Georgia.   We were doing great last year handling COVID-19, but with the Memorial Day and 4th of July weekends, we had an onslaught of tourist (many from out of state) that generally seemed to ignore masking, social distancing, etc.   Our numbers shot up because of that.   

 

When you look at the data for vaccinations most states are doing about the same, with a few like New Mexico, W. Virginia, North and South Dakota doing very well.  

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

Georgia has administered almost 1.8 million out of about 2.3 million doses.  

I'm in GA too, I assume I'll be about the last group that is eligible for the vaccine....mid 50's and healthy (knocking on wood).  

[PTC DAWG]

6 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

What I am smoking allows me to differentiate between 2 common English words:
Cases and Deaths.

I see one as being much more serious than the other. I know folks who tested positive and had no idea they even were sick at all.  Who knows if it was a false positive or not?  

 

 No hard feelings here.  

 

I just think that some of the folks in charge like holding their proverbial thumb on the masses.  

 

 

Edited February 21, 2021 by PTC DAWG

[ECCruise]

2 minutes ago, PTC DAWG said:

I see one as being much more serious than the other. I know folks who tested positive and had no idea they even were sick at all.  Who knows if it was a false positive or not?  

 

 No hard feelings here.  

 

I just think that some of the folks in charge like holding their proverbial thumb on the masses.  

 

 

Obviously we agree that deaths are far more important than cases.

 

But I will reiterate that due to an almost total lack of knowledge on things like transmission along with some real hamhanded approaches by some officials, the deaths in the NE were higher than in other areas.  And deaths have dropped in other areas even though cases soared because of the far more extensive knowledge of the virus as we moved forward.

 

I totally disagree that officials are getting their jollies by the use of mandates.  How would you like to be in the position that a misstep as an elected official could be responsible for numerous deaths?  A classic of damned if you do and damned if you don't. 

[TeeRick]

10 minutes ago, PTC DAWG said:

What are you smoking?  Pass it around.  5 out of the top 6 DEATHS per capita are Northeast States.  Cases mean nothing in the big scheme....plenty of false negatives floating around.  

 

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/us-coronavirus-deaths-by-state-july-1.html

Just to add something here.  The numbers need to be dissected a bit.  Many of the deaths in the Northeast states and mid-Atlantic states were earlier in the pandemic and were in the very elderly in nursing homes.  There were no known effective procedures, drugs, or even masks at that time.  The medical community knew almost nothing when it hit.  Neither did the state health authorities.  So it might be more appropriate to look at hospitalizations and deaths more recently by state to make your points.  For example CA was hit very hard toward the end of 2020 even when a lot more was known about the virus and responses to it.  

[Auntiemomo]

1 hour ago, ECCruise said:

 

I totally disagree that officials are getting their jollies by the use of mandates.  How would you like to be in the position that a misstep as an elected official could be responsible for numerous deaths?  A classic of damned if you do and damned if you don't. 

Really?  Power corrupts.  

[nocl]

1 hour ago, PTC DAWG said:

I see one as being much more serious than the other. I know folks who tested positive and had no idea they even were sick at all.  Who knows if it was a false positive or not?  

 

 No hard feelings here.  

 

I just think that some of the folks in charge like holding their proverbial thumb on the masses.  

 

 

A very interesting study has just come out that shows that as much as 1/3 of all Covid infections, including mild cases, result in long haul symptoms.  Once we deal with the hospitalizations and mortality, I expect this, far less publicized issue.  However it is one that may result in an even greater medical cost in the long term. The nature of these case may impact future stroke and cardiac incident rates.

 

http://.https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210219/a-third-of-covid-survivors-have-long-haul-symptoms#1

 

While data exists showing that vaccines limit the serious cases, no data yet exists if it eliminates that long term impacts an the mild cases.  

[ECCruise]

24 minutes ago, Auntiemomo said:

Really?  Power corrupts.  

Quite the blanket statement.

 

I could list thousands of elected officials worldwide that were not corrupted, but please enjoy your day.

[nocl]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

Just to add something here.  The numbers need to be dissected a bit.  Many of the deaths in the Northeast states and mid-Atlantic states were earlier in the pandemic and were in the very elderly in nursing homes.  There were no known effective procedures, drugs, or even masks at that time.  The medical community knew almost nothing when it hit.  Neither did the state health authorities.  So it might be more appropriate to look at hospitalizations and deaths more recently by state to make your points.  For example CA was hit very hard toward the end of 2020 even when a lot more was known about the virus and responses to it.  

However, if you dig deeper into the CA statistics the deaths were concentrated in certain communities that were less likely to seek medical intervention until last minute.

[phoenix_dream]

This thread seems to have strayed a bit into another debate about vaccines.  I know it all relates, but I wanted to get back to commenting on the original article.  I am not a scientist, nor a medical professional and don't claim otherwise.  But as a reasonably intelligent person (or so I've been told) I can glean some theories based on information I've read from the professionals.  

 

Does anyone really know if we are nearing herd immunity?  The answer is no.  I don't know.  You don't know.  But is it possible (if perhaps not yet to be considered likely)?  I think that answer is yes. 

 

Point one - many experts have stated that they feel the real infection rate is considerably higher than the known rate for many reasons - key among them reduced access to testing in the beginning months and asymptomatic cases.  Point two - the majority of the asymptomatic cases seem to be in younger people, who let's be honest, were generally less restrictive in their behaviors than many adults (I know there are exceptions - I'm saying generally).   Point three - the rates across the US in most (or is it all?) states have been dropping considerably in the past month.  A decline from a holiday surge?  Perhaps some of it is that.  Or perhaps some of it is due to post-Covid immunity as well as vaccinations.  Point four - Where were the Covid  cases most identified and logged?  In people who got very sick or died from the virus - in a large percentage of cases (I know not all), these were people in long term care facilities or others 65+.  Who were the first people to get the vaccinations?  That group (again, not all, but generally speaking).  

 

I know anyone can (and no doubt will) argue any one or all these points.  But I think there is some logic to them.  IMHO the biggest unknown in whether we will soon near herd immunity relates to whether the vaccines will continue to be efficient against variants.  It's too soon to tell.  The other unknown is how long immunity truly lasts.  It's been a year, and we have not heard of many cases of reinfection.  So while the experts are only willing to put their necks on the line (understandably) and estimate 3 months, the reality is that this is more than likely a very conservative estimate.  

[LGW59]

26 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

This thread seems to have strayed a bit into another debate about vaccines.  I know it all relates, but I wanted to get back to commenting on the original article.  I am not a scientist, nor a medical professional and don't claim otherwise.  But as a reasonably intelligent person (or so I've been told) I can glean some theories based on information I've read from the professionals.  

 

Does anyone really know if we are nearing herd immunity?  The answer is no.  I don't know.  You don't know.  But is it possible (if perhaps not yet to be considered likely)?  I think that answer is yes. 

 

Point one - many experts have stated that they feel the real infection rate is considerably higher than the known rate for many reasons - key among them reduced access to testing in the beginning months and asymptomatic cases.  Point two - the majority of the asymptomatic cases seem to be in younger people, who let's be honest, were generally less restrictive in their behaviors than many adults (I know there are exceptions - I'm saying generally).   Point three - the rates across the US in most (or is it all?) states have been dropping considerably in the past month.  A decline from a holiday surge?  Perhaps some of it is that.  Or perhaps some of it is due to post-Covid immunity as well as vaccinations.  Point four - Where were the Covid  cases most identified and logged?  In people who got very sick or died from the virus - in a large percentage of cases (I know not all), these were people in long term care facilities or others 65+.  Who were the first people to get the vaccinations?  That group (again, not all, but generally speaking).  

 

I know anyone can (and no doubt will) argue any one or all these points.  But I think there is some logic to them.  IMHO the biggest unknown in whether we will soon near herd immunity relates to whether the vaccines will continue to be efficient against variants.  It's too soon to tell.  The other unknown is how long immunity truly lasts.  It's been a year, and we have not heard of many cases of reinfection.  So while the experts are only willing to put their necks on the line (understandably) and estimate 3 months, the reality is that this is more than likely a very conservative estimate.  

I like this phoenix_dream, a lot!  Some folks here on CC seem to have a genuine knowledge of all this and have offered very interesting commentary, though none of us know if they just got the info from Google, CDC site et al, still interesting none the less.  Arm chair Dr. Fauci's like me, will just sit back and mask up, wait for my turn in line for the vaccine and hope for the best!

[Lastdance]

I have been in school since August of last year.  Finally, I am two weeks past my second vaccination, so as soon as my DH is at the same point(sometime in the middle of March)I will be going out to eat and doing most of the things I once did before Covid.  I have been in the gym since last May.  I have never felt afraid of the virus due to my doctor always providing the most update information, along with having the plasma when it was available.  Wearing a mask has never been an issue for me, but I have always followed my doc's protocol. It helps to have a great doctor, his cell phnoe number and up-to-date information emailed to me constantly.  My last update said that both of us were good to go two weeks after our second vaccination...cannot wait.  Following the protocol and understanding how the virus spreads, along with constant updated information made a huge difference.  However, cannot cruise until things greatly improve. Sadly, I have a friend who is a long hauler(now involved in a study) and one that just passed due to Covid and not getting the plasma during the first few days. I sent out all my information to my friends and family, but whether they read it or not was up to them.

Edited February 22, 2021 by Lastdance

[Oville]

14 hours ago, Gracie115 said:

I live in Florida I got my first vaccine on January 11 and 2nd one Feb 1.  Florida has vaccinated 40% of those over 65 at this point. 

Please state your source and where do live in FL., not town/city but county.  The governor here has probably done a great job in nursing homes but 40% of all those over 65? Fortunately our local paper does show stats.

Edited February 22, 2021 by Oville

[LGW59]

2 minutes ago, Oville said:

Please state your source and where do live in FL., not town/city but county.  The governor here has probably done a great job in nursing homes but 40% of all those over 65? Fortunately our local paper does show stats.

Ahh the source is the poster, he/she said they got their vaccine. 

[LGW59]

6 minutes ago, Oville said:

Please state your source and where do live in FL., not town/city but county.  The governor here has probably done a great job in nursing homes but 40% of all those over 65? Fortunately our local paper does show stats.

and Gov Baker since Dec has done a horrible job, he basically admitted so this past week.

[Oville]

2 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

Ahh the source is the poster, he/she said they got their vaccine. 

Thanks for the chuckle.  😉🤣
 

[Oville]

1 minute ago, LGW59 said:

and Gov Baker since Dec has done a horrible job, he basically admitted so this past week.

I’ll take Baker right now vs our gov.👏

Edited February 22, 2021 by Oville

[LGW59]

7 minutes ago, Oville said:

I’ll take Baker right now vs our gov.👏

oh boy, Cuomo or DeSantis....I'm with you

[Oville]

5 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

oh boy, Cuomo or DeSantis....I'm with you

👍Yup.

[frankdp]

18 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

and Gov Baker since Dec has done a horrible job, he basically admitted so this past week.

Gov Baker?