Herd Immunity?

[TeeRick]

17 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

Clearly, there are many opinions on when herd immunity will be reached, if at all.  Still, once a significant percentage of the population is vaccinated, especially the elderly and people with serious health issues, this should be time to return to some degree of normalcy.   People that refuse vaccination will be at more risk and we may have to be vaccinated every year, however the extreme shutdowns cannot endure forever.  The USA and other countries can't keep helicoptering money, likely leading to serious inflation, perhaps hyperinflation.  

 

Local teachers here in our area tell me that while about 80% of our kids are opting to return to in-school learning, a small percentage of kids are not in class or participating in  distance learning at all.   In many states no kids have been in class for a year.   Catching up will be very hard.   Many of these kids may be future dropouts.  Also, many small businesses have failed and millions are still unemployed due to shutdowns.  

To be honest, there are only 3.7 million teachers in  the US so if they are prioritized for vaccine (2 doses) then in two months or so they are fully protected.  Plenty of vaccine to do this now once the 65+ are finished.   Vast majority of healthy kids are resistant to COVID.  This is an easy plan to re-open all schools.

[phoenix_dream]

On 2/21/2021 at 9:07 PM, Oville said:

Actually it’s 21,500,000 people of which 4,000,000+ are over age 65.  We do need to wait our turn but, unlike other states, it is not being controlled by one source.  In my county you can get appointments from the county online, usually less than 30-45minutes before there are gone and haven’t been available since Feb 1.  Publix has appointments, again on line, at 6:00am now 7:00am and all gone in 30-40 minutes.  The cities also have appointments but only available to city residents.  With the exception of Publix no appointments have been available since Feb 1 for first time shots and Publix is only taking 2nd shot appointments and hasn’t for a week.

We understand we will eventually going to get the vaccine but it is hard to read people saying it’s not a problem.

 

Keeping safe in Naples, Fl., Katie

 

Your state is certainly not alone.  Here in Illinois chaos reigns.  People are frantically signing up for various sites and spending literally hours on the computer trying to snag timeframes.  Just in the group of people I closely associate with, some have finally been able to find shots at three different county health department locations (not mine), a Walgreens (that was me - and I had to drive 2 1/2 hours each way to get it), Osco drug store,  a personal physician, the hospital they worked at, a long term care facility, and a senior living community (not long term care).  Disjointed and chaotic and loaded with stress.

 

Prior to finding my shot appointments on my own through hours on the computer, I've signed up at my local medical group, my local health department, and various other drugstores.  I've not heard one single word from any of them telling me I was allowed to sign up for a timeslot - just the occasional email telling me to be patient.  For the record, I am over 65, so in the second group in my state.

 

I think people understand (even if they don't like it) that not everyone can be vaccinated all at once, and that triage needs to be made.  But to me the awful management of the process and the complete and total lack of any specific communication is what drives people up the wall.  For example, my health department should be able to tell me I am # xyz out of #xyz number of people ahead of me.  I know they can't tell me a specific timeframe due to confusion in the availability, but they definitely could tell me that.  As should my medical group.  I used to manage large IT projects - I know programming that would be a fairly simple process.  Instead I get patronizing emails telling me to be patient, and Facebook posts that actually encourage people to go out and do their best to find appointments on their own because the health department doesn't have enough.  Outrageous!!  A total lack of good leadership at the state and county level.  

[4774Papa]

2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

To be honest, there are only 3.7 million teachers in  the US so if they are prioritized for vaccine (2 doses) then in two months or so they are fully protected.  Plenty of vaccine to do this now once the 65+ are finished.   Vast majority of healthy kids are resistant to COVID.  This is an easy plan to re-open all schools.

Here in Georgia, teachers were prioritized for vaccine appointments, along with over 65.    I know some teachers in our neighborhood and they say the incidence of COVID-19 cases among students and teachers is very small.  Also, provisions were made for the few teachers that had serious medical issues.

[deadzone1003]

36 minutes ago, 4774Papa said:

Here in Georgia, teachers were prioritized for vaccine appointments, along with over 65.    I know some teachers in our neighborhood and they say the incidence of COVID-19 cases among students and teachers is very small.  Also, provisions were made for the few teachers that had serious medical issues.

"incidence of COVID-19 cases among students and teachers is very small" was common knowledge (though not throughout the Western world) as Sweden and Brazil plus numerous other countries never closed their school though I am not sure about their colleges.  If you are under puberty, your immune system is on standby rather than on sleep mode (to use a computer analogy).   As a teacher you were more likely to get the virus from another teacher than a student, but as a former teacher you don't interact very much with other teachers (except during lunch if you go to the lunch room).  Florida as well as many other states have not closed their schools.   

[cruisemom42]

53 minutes ago, 4774Papa said:

Here in Georgia, teachers were prioritized for vaccine appointments, along with over 65.    I know some teachers in our neighborhood and they say the incidence of COVID-19 cases among students and teachers is very small.  Also, provisions were made for the few teachers that had serious medical issues.

 

This is incorrect. In Georgia, teachers were not prioritized. As recently as four days ago Gov. Kemp said the state is "considering" adding teachers as they work in the next two weeks to develop prioritization for the next phase of rollout:

 

https://www.wabe.org/georgia-may-add-teachers-to-vaccine-priority-list/

 

 

[cruisemom42]

16 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

"incidence of COVID-19 cases among students and teachers is very small" was common knowledge (though not throughout the Western world) as Sweden and Brazil plus numerous other countries never closed their school though I am not sure about their colleges.

 

This is not borne out by the facts. Recent studies have confirmed that compared to adults, children likely have similar viral loads in their nasopharynx and similar secondary infections rates, and can spread the virus to others.

 

Children tend not to have severe symptoms (and thus don't get tested as often), but they are certainly both infected AND infectious to others.

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2768952

 

[deadzone1003]

2 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

This is not borne out by the facts. Recent studies have confirmed that compared to adults, children likely have similar viral loads in their nasopharynx and similar secondary infections rates, and can spread the virus to others.

 

Children tend not to have severe symptoms (and thus don't get tested as often), but they are certainly both infected AND infectious to others.

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2768952

 

Just because they can get infected and pass on the virus doesn't mean the incidents of the virus among children is the same as the adults.  The incidents of the virus is much, much lower.  If what you are thinking is true, schools that have not closed would have virus sweeping through their student population and that is not the case.  Kids with comorbidities are the most vulnerable and most likely to get sick.  Quarantine them and not the rest of the class.

[cruisemom42]

2 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

Just because they can get infected and pass on the virus doesn't mean the incidents of the virus among children is the same as the adults.  The incidents of the virus is much, much lower.  If what you are thinking is true, schools that have not closed would have virus sweeping through their student population and that is not the case. 

 

Children may be less frequently infected, but they are infected nonetheless, and when infected they have just as much virus in their "system" as an adult. Many cases go unreported because they are asymptomatic or have only very mild symptoms. 

 

However, there is nothing suggesting that they cannot infect others, which you seemed to be suggesting. Nor are the numbers so low that they would not pose a risk to a teacher in an enclosed classroom with them for a significant amount of time on a daily basis. Or to any adults in the household where they live.

[broberts]

5 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

Just because they can get infected and pass on the virus doesn't mean the incidents of the virus among children is the same as the adults.  The incidents of the virus is much, much lower.  If what you are thinking is true, schools that have not closed would have virus sweeping through their student population and that is not the case.  Kids with comorbidities are the most vulnerable and most likely to get sick.  Quarantine them and not the rest of the class.

 

I think you are missing a critical point. Children are far less likely to have a symptomatic case. Since few school boards do random asymptomatic tests it is not possible to definitively state there is a lower incidence of infection in schools. What data there is suggests infection rates may be close to those of the surrounding community.

[nocl]

3 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

Your state is certainly not alone.  Here in Illinois chaos reigns.  People are frantically signing up for various sites and spending literally hours on the computer trying to snag timeframes.  Just in the group of people I closely associate with, some have finally been able to find shots at three different county health department locations (not mine), a Walgreens (that was me - and I had to drive 2 1/2 hours each way to get it), Osco drug store,  a personal physician, the hospital they worked at, a long term care facility, and a senior living community (not long term care).  Disjointed and chaotic and loaded with stress.

 

Prior to finding my shot appointments on my own through hours on the computer, I've signed up at my local medical group, my local health department, and various other drugstores.  I've not heard one single word from any of them telling me I was allowed to sign up for a timeslot - just the occasional email telling me to be patient.  For the record, I am over 65, so in the second group in my state.

 

I think people understand (even if they don't like it) that not everyone can be vaccinated all at once, and that triage needs to be made.  But to me the awful management of the process and the complete and total lack of any specific communication is what drives people up the wall.  For example, my health department should be able to tell me I am # xyz out of #xyz number of people ahead of me.  I know they can't tell me a specific timeframe due to confusion in the availability, but they definitely could tell me that.  As should my medical group.  I used to manage large IT projects - I know programming that would be a fairly simple process.  Instead I get patronizing emails telling me to be patient, and Facebook posts that actually encourage people to go out and do their best to find appointments on their own because the health department doesn't have enough.  Outrageous!!  A total lack of good leadership at the state and county level.  

Unfortunately the county health departments are in charge for how they use their allocation.  They, normally do not do large numbers of vaccinations.  Most these days are given by pharmacies, who do have appointment software.  I think that we would be better off if they reversed the allocations.  Send it to pharmacies first, then any left over above their capacity go to large vaccination events handled by the counties and national guard.  After all most people that get vaccines are used to working with their local pharmacies. 

 

All this could have been set up during the time we were waiting for vaccine approval.

 

As you say it would have been easy to have set up a registration system for people to sign up and have the system sort and prioritize.  Unfortunately in this day and age many would refuse to give the information to the system that it would need.  

 

The local university could not get such a registry system past their legal department.

[nocl]

28 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

Just because they can get infected and pass on the virus doesn't mean the incidents of the virus among children is the same as the adults.  The incidents of the virus is much, much lower.  If what you are thinking is true, schools that have not closed would have virus sweeping through their student population and that is not the case.  Kids with comorbidities are the most vulnerable and most likely to get sick.  Quarantine them and not the rest of the class.

I believe you will find in most states that if you tell the kids with comorbidities that they do not have a choice, that they must stay home the legal cases will fly. Laws pretty much require it to be all or nothing with any choice lying with the student when it comes to individuals.

 

With children there are more asymptomatic cases, not necessarily fewer over all cases. 

[4774Papa]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

This is incorrect. In Georgia, teachers were not prioritized. As recently as four days ago Gov. Kemp said the state is "considering" adding teachers as they work in the next two weeks to develop prioritization for the next phase of rollout:

 

https://www.wabe.org/georgia-may-add-teachers-to-vaccine-priority-list/

 

 

cruise mom,

Thanks for the correction.   I was told by a teacher that they were prioritized, appears that she was wrong.

[Baron Barracuda]

dd  is a teacher here in NJ where teachers are not eligible (but smokers are???).  More than half her students are doing full time remote learning  (parents choice) leaving her with 5 - 9 students per class.  A number of teachers have tested positive or been exposed this year causing school to close and go full remote while remainder quarantine.   It's also been impossible to obtain substitutes when a teacher is out.  No one wants the risk.  In nearby Wayne subs are being offered $200/day (double the normal rate) and they still can't get enough.  

[cangelmd]

23 hours ago, amyr said:

I think this is probably the case.  Herd immunity, or what we think herd immunity is, will probably get us to something more akin to a seasonal flu than measles or smallpox.  I hope that's not true, but I think it is. 

Ho, whoa, wait a minute, Covid is in no shape form or fashion as deadly as smallpox, and  I don’t think it has anything like the death rate of measles either (in a virus naive population). Read the book 1491 for a feel for what the historical research says about the effects of smallpox and measles on a virus naive population.

I’m a little more upbeat I guess, than others about the final end of the pandemic - my opinion is that Covid will sink into the surrounding sea of respiratory Coronaviruses eventually and behave as they do. We are almost hijacking that process by developing a vaccine, but are saving lives and the health care system in the interim. Will we have to have lifelong boosters - possibly, maybe likely, but maybe not, it’s just too early to know. How long will this process take, I don’t know. 
The very technical article from Nature that TeeRick posted the other day is evidence that infected people are producing broad immunity that is evolving over time within the individual. This implies that people may have at least partial immunity to different strains of virus (variants).

[deadzone1003]

1 hour ago, broberts said:

 

I think you are missing a critical point. Children are far less likely to have a symptomatic case. Since few school boards do random asymptomatic tests it is not possible to definitively state there is a lower incidence of infection in schools. What data there is suggests infection rates may be close to those of the surrounding community.

You are implying that this disease is really not affecting the children very much - more like a common cold.  If all these kids were infectious as you say they are, wouldn't the teacher be the canary in the coal mine?  If the teachers were getting sick, I'm sure the teacher's union in states where the schools are still opened would make a big stink about it.    

[nocl]

1 minute ago, deadzone1003 said:

You are implying that this disease is really not affecting the children very much - more like a common cold.  If all these kids were infectious as you say they are, wouldn't the teacher be the canary in the coal mine?  If the teachers were getting sick, I'm sure the teacher's union in states where the schools are still opened would make a big stink about it.    

You have not followed the news about the locations, such as Chicago, where the teacher unions have fought against going back before being vaccinated?  There have been a lot of resistance in various areas from the teacher unions and the teachers them selves.

[broberts]

36 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

You are implying that this disease is really not affecting the children very much - more like a common cold.  If all these kids were infectious as you say they are, wouldn't the teacher be the canary in the coal mine?  If the teachers were getting sick, I'm sure the teacher's union in states where the schools are still opened would make a big stink about it.    

 

I said that children have a lower incidence of serious infection with a similar infection rate to the surrounding community. That does not mean it is more like the common cold. Far from it. Children die from covid, suffer laying haul syndrome, and other serious and deadly issues. 

 

I believe the data suggests that transmission rates in school tend to be lower than in the surrounding community. I'm not sure if it has been established if this is attributable to lower transmissibility in children or mitigation practices. It may be both.

[Gracie115]

Florida's schools have been open since September and while there have been incidents of virus where some people have had to quarantine, they are becoming fewer and fewer.  Parents do have the choice to do only remote learning, but the parents I know with school age kids have said that it's just not the same, that their children weren't learning and have gone back to in school learning and thus far for them it has not been a problem.

 

Is everyone happy about it? Of course not, but at least the option is here to do it either way.  

 

I do believe teachers should be prioritized.

 

 

Edited February 23, 2021 by Gracie115

[ECCruise]

3 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

 Sweden and Brazil plus numerous other countries never closed their school 

Huh?

High schools in Sweden, which were closed a couple of times because of outbreaks.

Brazil?  Definitely closed.  This was in April:

In Brazil, more than 180,000 schools are currently closed and 47 million students are trying to adapt to a new routine of distance education because of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

[Arizona Wildcat]

6 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

Your state is certainly not alone.  Here in Illinois chaos reigns.  People are frantically signing up for various sites and spending literally hours on the computer trying to snag timeframes.  Just in the group of people I closely associate with, some have finally been able to find shots at three different county health department locations (not mine), a Walgreens (that was me - and I had to drive 2 1/2 hours each way to get it), Osco drug store,  a personal physician, the hospital they worked at, a long term care facility, and a senior living community (not long term care).  Disjointed and chaotic and loaded with stress.

 

Prior to finding my shot appointments on my own through hours on the computer, I've signed up at my local medical group, my local health department, and various other drugstores.  I've not heard one single word from any of them telling me I was allowed to sign up for a timeslot - just the occasional email telling me to be patient.  For the record, I am over 65, so in the second group in my state.

 

I think people understand (even if they don't like it) that not everyone can be vaccinated all at once, and that triage needs to be made.  But to me the awful management of the process and the complete and total lack of any specific communication is what drives people up the wall.  For example, my health department should be able to tell me I am # xyz out of #xyz number of people ahead of me.  I know they can't tell me a specific timeframe due to confusion in the availability, but they definitely could tell me that.  As should my medical group.  I used to manage large IT projects - I know programming that would be a fairly simple process.  Instead I get patronizing emails telling me to be patient, and Facebook posts that actually encourage people to go out and do their best to find appointments on their own because the health department doesn't have enough.  Outrageous!!  A total lack of good leadership at the state and county level.  

And you are surprised at problems in Illinois government?  Really?

Things went a lot smoother when Richard J Dailey ran the State, er Chicago.

[cruisemom42]

4 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

You are implying that this disease is really not affecting the children very much - more like a common cold.  If all these kids were infectious as you say they are, wouldn't the teacher be the canary in the coal mine?  If the teachers were getting sick, I'm sure the teacher's union in states where the schools are still opened would make a big stink about it.    

 

Just one recent "big stink" about it in my state:

 

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/cobb-county-school-board-under-fire-after-3-teacher-deaths/85-8a585a86-90e1-4228-985e-ae0834866c5d

 

Three classroom instructors died of COVID within a couple of weeks after schools reopened in January in this school district.  The kicker?  Three of the members of the county school board where the teachers were protesting in the article linked above REFUSED to wear masks at the board meeting where this was discussed despite it being a requirement and despite being the request of one of the teachers who died (as was reminded during the meeting).

 

[need2cruisesoon]

I've been drinking more red wine and seems to be doing the trick, that with some Vitamin D and Im ready too roll.

[Oville]

Just a follow up to my recent posts.

https://www.winknews.com/2021/02/23/pelican-bay-residents-awarded-access-to-register-for-hundreds-of-vaccines/

 

[TeeRick]

20 hours ago, nocl said:

Unfortunately the county health departments are in charge for how they use their allocation.  They, normally do not do large numbers of vaccinations.  Most these days are given by pharmacies, who do have appointment software.  I think that we would be better off if they reversed the allocations.  Send it to pharmacies first, then any left over above their capacity go to large vaccination events handled by the counties and national guard.  After all most people that get vaccines are used to working with their local pharmacies. 

 

All this could have been set up during the time we were waiting for vaccine approval.

 

As you say it would have been easy to have set up a registration system for people to sign up and have the system sort and prioritize.  Unfortunately in this day and age many would refuse to give the information to the system that it would need.  

 

The local university could not get such a registry system past their legal department.

Totally agree with your points.

[TeeRick]

19 hours ago, cangelmd said:

Ho, whoa, wait a minute, Covid is in no shape form or fashion as deadly as smallpox, and  I don’t think it has anything like the death rate of measles either (in a virus naive population). Read the book 1491 for a feel for what the historical research says about the effects of smallpox and measles on a virus naive population.

I’m a little more upbeat I guess, than others about the final end of the pandemic - my opinion is that Covid will sink into the surrounding sea of respiratory Coronaviruses eventually and behave as they do. We are almost hijacking that process by developing a vaccine, but are saving lives and the health care system in the interim. Will we have to have lifelong boosters - possibly, maybe likely, but maybe not, it’s just too early to know. How long will this process take, I don’t know. 
The very technical article from Nature that TeeRick posted the other day is evidence that infected people are producing broad immunity that is evolving over time within the individual. This implies that people may have at least partial immunity to different strains of virus (variants).

And partial immunity from lifelong exposure to other coronaviruses.