Herd Immunity?

[ECCruise]

42 minutes ago, 4774Papa said:

I am optimistic about this and plan to travel overseas in July and October this year.

 

On other threads on cc, some pessimists have opined that foreign travel and cruising will not  open up until 2 or 3 years.  That is really weak, the cruise lines would be bankrupt over and over by then.

 

We are optimistic from a US standpoint, but not from an international standpoint.  We have European sailings scheduled in Northern Europe in the end of July and Spain in late November.  With each day, the hopes for the July sailing fade.  The EU has a long way to go and I have strong doubts that European countries are going to open their arms to thousands of ship pax, vaxxed or not. 

[Arizona Wildcat]

1 hour ago, CroozFanatic said:

Data don't lie, people do.

 

I think the data will dictate EVERYTHING.

 

The question is what number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths will permit cruising.

 

If current trends continue, cases will be about 20,000/day by the end of the first week of April....down 90% from the peak. That's enough for me.

 

If cases plateau at 40,000 and start rising because of the variants, we're SOL.

Agree.  The other side of the equation is what about other countries? 

Going to cruise to South America?  Huge numbers and still huge numbers with Brazil now #1 in New infections.

Where is the Caribbean is cases?  I don't know except they have very limited ICU beds and unlikely to open soon.

Europe?  Still pretty much closed and struggling.

And the wild card is the variants that some suggestt are the elephant looming in the near future.

Then you have the two places near the US.  Canada with a small number of cases and limited vaccinations.  British Columbia in the .2% area.  Mexico case numbers high and vaccinations in many areas non-existent.

Will be many months before COVID is under control.

 

[broberts]

4 hours ago, tevea100 said:

I've been trying to follow all the evidence on all sides. The big key here is how many have had it and were never identified? A great many articles I read saying current situation will be around until 2022 never take this into account they just look at vaccination rates. For months the CDC has been estimating that for every positive test there are anywhere from 4-11 people who have had it and didn't get tested or even know they had it. Based on this, April is not a crazy assumption. I know there are sharp divides about the virus, but more and more evidence is pointing to a few things. If you look overall at CA, FL, NY, NJ you'll find very similar numbers of cases and deaths based on population. Florida was drastically less restrictive with a larger elderly population. So are lockdowns really worth it? The other reality is that if you factor in those who have never known they had it the overall death rate is that of a truly bad flu season. Finally, with the rate of mutation do you really believe Covid is going away? I don't, I think it will be just like the annual flu and will constantly change. Time we figure out how to live with it.

 

It is known that natural immunity is not necessarily long lasting. I don't think there is enough data yet to determine a reinfection rate. But 3 months seems to be mentioned often by immunologists when discussing the phenomena. Nor is there sufficient data to determine the expected duration of vaccination protection. So I wonder at the confidence in an April 2021 date.

 

Comparing oranges, guava, and cantaloupes to arrive at the conclusion that they are not that different is only superficially valid. Once one digs into the details it becomes evident that there are significant differences.

 

I suspect that despite vastly different mitigation strategies enough people in most states simply did what they wanted. Given the virulence of covid it doesn't take very many people ignoring mitigation rules to push up infection rates.

[Oville]

10 hours ago, hcat said:

Many  places in Fl are doing well...and many are getting vaccines, wearing  their masks and getting lots of Vitamin D sunshine..

Again seriously?  There has not been any vaccines in SWFL for weeks.  Glad you got your two doses, the vast majority hasn’t got one first dose.  You should consider yourself lucky because you are not the typical story.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Oville

[LGW59]

4 minutes ago, Oville said:

Again seriously?  There has not been any vaccines in SWFL for weeks.  Glad you got your two doses the vast majority hasn’t got one first dose.  You should consider yourself lucky because you are not the typical story.

Friends who actually live in FL, both Atlantic and Gulf coasts tell me it is a mess, they live there full time.  Colleagues with winter homes there say the same.  So many seem to know what is going on all over the country, SMH already.  Post any link you want....just preface for what it is

[cangelmd]

12 hours ago, Lazz said:

It has been suggested that the reason for the reduction in the number of positive cases is because the previous testing has been too sensitive.  The sensitivity has been reduced and that has led to a decline in positive cases.  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/experts-us-covid-19-positivity-rate-high-due-to-too-sensitive-tests/ar-BB18wE8B

 

https://sentinelksmo.org/kdhe-quietly-reduced-cycle-threshold-on-covid-tests/

Most labs I’m familiar with in my city have never had a cutoff as high as 42 cycles, and we have seen a similar drop in positives. 
We do a lot of repeating when a case does not make clinical sense, and that happens with 3-4 times as many negatives as positives - but again, the labs I’m familiar with don’t let the test run through that many cycles.

[Oville]

16 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

Friends who actually live in FL, both Atlantic and Gulf coasts tell me it is a mess, they live there full time.  Colleagues with winter homes there say the same.  So many seem to know what is going on all over the country, SMH already.  Post any link you want....just preface for what 

I live in Naples.  The county hasn’t had a sign up for vaccines since the end of January. Publix has stopped and have way more trying to get vaccines than appointments.  The biggest problem is they both gave out too many vaccines late-Dec thru the end of January so now they are only doing 2nd shots and those are delayed because of weather issues north of here.

My sister and husband who live in CT got shots Thursday, one day after the state opened up to 65+.  My other sister got appointments in early March in MA today, one day after the state opening up to 65+.

If you want a reference check out Wink News and COVID appointments.

 

Now I’m laughing, your friends are right.😉

 

Edited February 21, 2021 by Oville

[LGW59]

12 minutes ago, Oville said:

I live in Naples.  The county hasn’t had a sign up for vaccines since the end of January. Publix has stopped and have way more trying to get vaccines than appointments.  The biggest problem is they both gave out too many vaccines late-Dec thru the end of January so now they are only doing 2nd shots and those are delayed because of weather issues north of here.

My sister and husband who live in CT got shots Thursday, one day after the state opened up to 65+.  My other sister got appointments in early March in MA today, one day after the state opening up to 65+.

If you want a reference check out Wink News and COVID appointments.

 

Now I’m laughing, your friends are right.😉

 

Yes my friends in Naples say it is a s*** show there

[Oville]

7 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

Yes my friends in Naples say it is a s*** show there

They are correct.  Sorry I misinterpreted your first reply.  We’ve been trying for the better part of 2 months and my sisters hit the vaccines lottery first time.  Love them both so are very happy with their success.

[LGW59]

1 hour ago, Oville said:

They are correct.  Sorry I misinterpreted your first reply.  We’ve been trying for the better part of 2 months and my sisters hit the vaccines lottery first time.  Love them both so are very happy with their success.

No worries at all, I am sure it is frustrating, I know they are.  Good luck!

[Gracie115]

I live in Florida I got my first vaccine on January 11 and 2nd one Feb 1.  Florida has vaccinated 40% of those over 65 at this point.  I know the larger cities have had issues with getting doses to them, especially in the last 2 weeks with all the winter storms delaying shipping.  Every person I know that is over 65 has had at least their first shot.  You can sign up with the state, the county, Publix, WInn Dixie, some small clinics and other areas too,  There are 21million people in Florida and it's going to take a long time to get shots in all those arms but the state is taking care of the most vulnerable now.  I don't see a "S" show going on, over 4 Million shots have put in arms in Florida as of yesterday.

[ipeeinthepool]

From my perspective most of the states vaccinating people at abut the same rate.  No one state is a bigger s*** show than another.   Most states have provided at least one shot to about 11 to 14 percent of their population.  Some smaller states are doing a little better at around 16 -17 percent.   At the end of the day all the states are supply limited with the vaccine being distributed based on population.  Is it frustrating trying to find a vaccination, for sure.  The rules are different from state to state and there are plenty of stories about people finding a way around the rules.  Vaccines are getting into peoples arms and that's the most important fact.  Supply is going to increase dramatically in the next several weeks and this frustration will start to go away.  Vaccinations really didn't start in earnest until the beginning of January and to have around 12 percent of the country getting at least one shot in about 6 weeks is impressive.

Edited February 21, 2021 by ipeeinthepool

[rjrpar]

If you look at the data by state, you will see that every state is doing about the same. We are about 13 months into a pandemic and already a vaccine has been developed and distributed to about 15% of the total population. Easy to criticize but I think that the progress has been very remarkable.  The US has vaccinated about 60m people, 3-4 the rate of other major countries. 

[4774Papa]

Here in SE Georgia vaccines were opened up to over 65 on January 11.  It was announced about a week earlier and our newspaper published the number to call to make appointments.  I started calling that number at 8am when the office opened and kept calling until I got an answer and made my appointment.   It took 30 minutes on the phone.   After about 10 days of making appointments (this was the Health Department) it was announced that appointments were booked up through February and future appointments were to be set up online.   About that time the local Hospital announced they were providing vaccines, then a local physician's office.   Most people my age that I talk to have had at least one dose.

 

Getting that first appointment took some persistence on my part.   Not sure everyone is that motivated.   A couple of our neighbors wanted to wait for the J&J one dose vaccine.

[Arizona Wildcat]

Releasing too much vaccine too early.  Balderdash.  They released it when it was available.  

The recent slow down in vaccinations is a combo of weather related distribution issues and retooling of production facilities/improved sources and manufacturing processes.  In an oversimplified description - less immediate production for provide an large increase in March and beyond.

FWIW Herd Immunity is the lead article in the New York Times this morning.  It give various assumptions and scenarios with dates mostly 6 months or more away.  One of the base assumptions across all scenarios is the vaccines PREVENT infection.  I was told Pfizer does not; thus the NYT dates might be a bit optimistic.

[cruisemom42]

On 2/20/2021 at 7:05 AM, CroozFanatic said:

Unfortunately, the virologists and the epidemiologists are cleaning up (getting rich) and have no incentive for the pandemic to end.

 

I'm just curious how you think a virologist or epidemiologist is "cleaning up" as a result of COVID?  Most are public health employees (not privately employed) and most do not see patients.

 

Only a handful (literally) of virologists or epidemiologists are going to come close to making even the median salary of a surgical oncologist.

 

 

[cruisemom42]

1 hour ago, ipeeinthepool said:

From my perspective most of the states vaccinating people at abut the same rate.  No one state is a bigger s*** show than another.   Most states have provided at least one shot to about 11 to 14 percent of their population.  Some smaller states are doing a little better at around 16 -17 percent.   At the end of the day all the states are supply limited with the vaccine being distributed based on population.  Is it frustrating trying to find a vaccination, for sure.  The rules are different from state to state and there are plenty of stories about people finding a way around the rules.  Vaccines are getting into peoples arms and that's the most important fact.  Supply is going to increase dramatically in the next several weeks and this frustration will start to go away.  Vaccinations really didn't start in earnest until the beginning of January and to have around 12 percent of the country getting at least one shot in about 6 weeks is impressive.

 

Another way to look at it is what percentage of vaccines received have actually been given. In my state (currently 43rd), less than 75% of vaccines received have actually made it into people's arms. Only starting next week are they opening several mass vaccination sites in the state. 

 

It seems like it will be forever until I am eligible for one, as I am neither 65+ nor in any special risk category.

 

[CroozFanatic]

Parents are clamoring to open all the schools...because of the data.

 

We as dedicated, hard-working, honest cruise ship passengers need to organize.

 

We need a slogan. It needs to be catchy and have a nice acronym.

[ipeeinthepool]

27 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Another way to look at it is what percentage of vaccines received have actually been given. In my state (currently 43rd), less than 75% of vaccines received have actually made it into people's arms. Only starting next week are they opening several mass vaccination sites in the state. 

 

It seems like it will be forever until I am eligible for one, as I am neither 65+ nor in any special risk category.

 

Yep, I understand your frustration but most of the states are at about the same level of vaccine distribution.  Some of that is likely due to scheduling, they need to have the vaccine before they schedule as well as states holding back vaccine for the second shot.  Some vaccine may also not be under state control because there are federal programs for some areas like long term care facilities.  I still think most of the states are performing at similar levels.  However I am disappointed that the states didn't have a better plan for scheduling, they had a long time to work on it.

[TeeRick]

13 hours ago, broberts said:

 

It is known that natural immunity is not necessarily long lasting. I don't think there is enough data yet to determine a reinfection rate. But 3 months seems to be mentioned often by immunologists when discussing the phenomena. Nor is there sufficient data to determine the expected duration of vaccination protection. So I wonder at the confidence in an April 2021 date.

broberts-  This is one of the most often stated pieces of misinformation about COVID infections and viral infections.  Sorry but I feel I need to respond to this once in a while.  What is actually known is that the antibodies to the virus after infection wane over time and are at low or undetectable levels in some individuals (but not all) months post infection.  But this is the way our immune system works.  If there is no longer antigen (persistence) then the original primary antibody response gets turned down or off.  Fortunately the human race has developed much more sophisticated immune systems.  So natural immunity after infection goes far beyond the initial antibodies that were present.  There is an important concept many are leaving out- that is Memory B-cells and Memory T-Cells.  We humans respond very quickly once we see the virus (or vaccine antigen) and produce abundant antibodies, Killer T-Cells and a whole host of other immune factors to keep us safe.   Or we humans probably would have suffered the fate of becoming extinct due to viruses long ago.

[TeeRick]

16 hours ago, CroozFanatic said:

Data don't lie, people do.

 

I think the data will dictate EVERYTHING.

 

The question is what number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths will permit cruising.

 

If current trends continue, cases will be about 20,000/day by the end of the first week of April....down 90% from the peak. That's enough for me.

 

If cases plateau at 40,000 and start rising because of the variants, we're SOL.

Yes it is always the data.  But many want to interpret it in their own way and prove their own points.

[PTC DAWG]

3 hours ago, Gracie115 said:

I live in Florida I got my first vaccine on January 11 and 2nd one Feb 1.  Florida has vaccinated 40% of those over 65 at this point.  I know the larger cities have had issues with getting doses to them, especially in the last 2 weeks with all the winter storms delaying shipping.  Every person I know that is over 65 has had at least their first shot.  You can sign up with the state, the county, Publix, WInn Dixie, some small clinics and other areas too,  There are 21million people in Florida and it's going to take a long time to get shots in all those arms but the state is taking care of the most vulnerable now.  I don't see a "S" show going on, over 4 Million shots have put in arms in Florida as of yesterday.

Don’t come here with good news, some people want none of it.  The NE portion of the country has been the big issue the entire time in regards to cases and deaths...they want the rest of the country to be miserable too. 

[broberts]

Just now, PTC DAWG said:

Don’t come here with good news, some people want none of it.  The NE portion of the country has been the big issue the entire time in regards to cases and deaths...they want the rest of the country to be miserable too. 

 

You need taller walls.

[amyr]

22 hours ago, jalves said:

Its more than just the expected drop after the holiday surge.

Well, I also said in the next sentence you didn't quote that is was probably also a combination of the vaccine rollout and provided a pretty good article that talked about how masking has helped and that perhaps more people than we know have been exposed.  But okay.  We're still miles away from the 200 million people we need for herd immunity just in the US.   I have hopes that we'll reach that number sometime in the fall.  We have plans for a road trip out west, and I really really want to go.  We also have high hopes for our first cruise booked at the end of February 2022.  Hopefully the new variants won't throw us all a roadblock. 

[ECCruise]

1 hour ago, PTC DAWG said:

Don’t come here with good news, some people want none of it.  The NE portion of the country has been the big issue the entire time in regards to cases and deaths...they want the rest of the country to be miserable too. 

Only 1 NE State out of the top 25 for cases per capita. And that portion of the country was largely blindsided in February and early March.

The rest of the country has no excuse.

 

States ranked by COVID cases.