Has the new Omicron variant delay the restart of cruising?

[By The Bay]

If you thought Brad Hazzard's comments about 25,000 cases a day by the end on January were over the top, have a read of this from the SMH.

 

"Professor Adrian Esterman, the chair of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of South Australia, said NSW could easily hit 100,000 daily cases by the end of January if the virus maintains its trajectory.

 

With a current reproductive rate of more than two, case numbers in NSW are doubling every four days, Professor Esterman said.

 

“In four days time that is about 40,000 cases, and four days after that 80,000 cases, so you can see how easily it can reach 100,000 cases,” he said.

 

Professor Esterman said he expected the NSW government would be forced to reintroduce additional measures to subdue the soaring caseload or the hospital system would become overwhelmed.

 

“I think that’s a near certainty,” he said. “The health system is creaking at the seams.”

 

“Just suppose 5 per cent have it bad enough to go to hospital – that’s 1000 patients going into the system every day ... How are they going to cope with that? The answer is they can’t. Something has to change.”

 

[MMDown Under]

22 minutes ago, By The Bay said:

If you thought Brad Hazzard's comments about 25,000 cases a day by the end on January were over the top, have a read of this from the SMH.

 

"Professor Adrian Esterman, the chair of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of South Australia, said NSW could easily hit 100,000 daily cases by the end of January if the virus maintains its trajectory.

 

With a current reproductive rate of more than two, case numbers in NSW are doubling every four days, Professor Esterman said.

 

“In four days time that is about 40,000 cases, and four days after that 80,000 cases, so you can see how easily it can reach 100,000 cases,” he said.

 

Professor Esterman said he expected the NSW government would be forced to reintroduce additional measures to subdue the soaring caseload or the hospital system would become overwhelmed.

 

“I think that’s a near certainty,” he said. “The health system is creaking at the seams.”

 

“Just suppose 5 per cent have it bad enough to go to hospital – that’s 1000 patients going into the system every day ... How are they going to cope with that? The answer is they can’t. Something has to change.”

 

I was shocked to learn the politicians in Vic didn't take the health advice of CHO, Vic.!

Queensland is now back to wearing masks inside, except for homes.  

[icat2000]

34 minutes ago, MMDown Under said:

I was shocked to learn the politicians in Vic didn't take the health advice of CHO, Vic.!

Queensland is now back to wearing masks inside, except for homes.  

You have to wear masks inside in Victoria. 

[MMDown Under]

43 minutes ago, icat2000 said:

You have to wear masks inside in Victoria. 

That is good as they've proven to be effective in reducing spread of the virus. 

Queensland just increased the numbers of places you have to wear a mask, exc your home.  Even your workplace unless it would be dangerous.  The Govt is encouraging people to work from home.  

[Chiliburn]

3 hours ago, By The Bay said:

If you thought Brad Hazzard's comments about 25,000 cases a day by the end on January were over the top, have a read of this from the SMH.

 

"Professor Adrian Esterman, the chair of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of South Australia, said NSW could easily hit 100,000 daily cases by the end of January if the virus maintains its trajectory.

 

With a current reproductive rate of more than two, case numbers in NSW are doubling every four days, Professor Esterman said.

 

“In four days time that is about 40,000 cases, and four days after that 80,000 cases, so you can see how easily it can reach 100,000 cases,” he said.

 

Professor Esterman said he expected the NSW government would be forced to reintroduce additional measures to subdue the soaring caseload or the hospital system would become overwhelmed.

 

“I think that’s a near certainty,” he said. “The health system is creaking at the seams.”

 

“Just suppose 5 per cent have it bad enough to go to hospital – that’s 1000 patients going into the system every day ... How are they going to cope with that? The answer is they can’t. Something has to change.”

 

I don’t know if it would be possible to get to those numbers as they couldn’t test that many.

If one in four where positive that would mean they would have to test 400,000 a day.

[SinbadThePorter]

Maybe I'm dreaming, but I see us as at the back end of the pandemic.

 

It's likely that all states and territories will hit +90% vaccination of over 12s very soon. Omicron is more infectious but not as deadly as delta.

 

So long as masking and distancing are kept up (looking at you NSW) we should be able to get past the surge in hospital cases without too much damage.

 

By March I think we'll be looking at a very different scene, with declining cases and very few new hospitalisations. In which case there will be no medical reasons to keep the local cruise ban.

 

There'll be a Federal election sometime between March and May. After which whoever is running the country will have no political reasons to maintain the local cruise ban.

 

I'm hoping we'll see test cruises through the winter from P&O and Carnival, with a full season restart in October.

 

Of course, on all these cruises there will be masking, distancing and vaccine mandates, but those are going to be unavoidable features of cruising going forward.

[Chiliburn]

6 minutes ago, SinbadThePorter said:

Maybe I'm dreaming, but I see us as at the back end of the pandemic.

 

It's likely that all states and territories will hit +90% vaccination of over 12s very soon. Omicron is more infectious but not as deadly as delta.

 

So long as masking and distancing are kept up (looking at you NSW) we should be able to get past the surge in hospital cases without too much damage.

 

By March I think we'll be looking at a very different scene, with declining cases and very few new hospitalisations. In which case there will be no medical reasons to keep the local cruise ban.

 

There'll be a Federal election sometime between March and May. After which whoever is running the country will have no political reasons to maintain the local cruise ban.

 

I'm hoping we'll see test cruises through the winter from P&O and Carnival, with a full season restart in October.

 

Of course, on all these cruises there will be masking, distancing and vaccine mandates, but those are going to be unavoidable features of cruising going forward.

We could be at a fork in the road.

One way we are at a turning point ( some virologist predict that).

The other way could be a disaster.

[MicCanberra]

3 hours ago, SinbadThePorter said:

Maybe I'm dreaming, but I see us as at the back end of the pandemic.

 

It's likely that all states and territories will hit +90% vaccination of over 12s very soon. Omicron is more infectious but not as deadly as delta.

 

So long as masking and distancing are kept up (looking at you NSW) we should be able to get past the surge in hospital cases without too much damage.

 

By March I think we'll be looking at a very different scene, with declining cases and very few new hospitalisations. In which case there will be no medical reasons to keep the local cruise ban.

 

There'll be a Federal election sometime between March and May. After which whoever is running the country will have no political reasons to maintain the local cruise ban.

 

I'm hoping we'll see test cruises through the winter from P&O and Carnival, with a full season restart in October.

 

Of course, on all these cruises there will be masking, distancing and vaccine mandates, but those are going to be unavoidable features of cruising going forward.

I somewhat agree, and certainly I hope it goes this way, but I wouldn't  bet on it.

[By The Bay]

19 hours ago, SinbadThePorter said:

Maybe I'm dreaming, but I see us as at the back end of the pandemic.

 

Next outbreak could be 

[MMDown Under]

US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention has advised people to avoid cruise ships regardless of their vaccination status. 

AIDAnova has pulled the pin in their NY Cruise, with 52 vaccinated crew positive.  

[Rassa]

9 minutes ago, By The Bay said:

Next outbreak could be 

Another variant may-be, but have you seen the worldometer count today and country tallies tumbling down!!!!!! 

[MMDown Under]

11 minutes ago, MMDown Under said:

US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention has advised people to avoid cruise ships regardless of their vaccination status. 

AIDAnova has pulled the pin in their NY Cruise, with 52 vaccinated crew positive.  

Later "Nunagores" on AIDAnova thread states Portugese TV states 12 new cases, 4 crew and 8 passengers are positive.  2800 passengers will be returned home to Germany from Lisbon on chartered flights. 

[OzKiwiJJ]

24 minutes ago, Rassa said:

Another variant may-be, but have you seen the worldometer count today and country tallies tumbling down!!!!!! 

Counts from holiday weekends are always a bit skewed. Thursdays and Fridays usually give a better picture of what is happening around the world.

[Chiliburn]

Just listening to the ABC .

Sydney hospitals are saying that people admitted to hospital for none Covid reasons. Such as broken leg ,heart attack,car accident.

They are routinely tested for COVID-19 and over the past few days 40% are positive but have no symptoms.

The health department is going to do a more detailed study as it could be a good  indicator.
 

 

 

 

 

Here the latest from cruise passenger.

 

https://cruisepassenger.com.au/news/how-cruise-is-coping-with-omicron-and-what-australia-needs-to-do-next/

[By The Bay]

22 hours ago, SinbadThePorter said:

Maybe I'm dreaming, but I see us as at the back end of the pandemic.

 

Not quite the back end in Port Stephens. 71 yesterday and 141 today. Stay safe.😷 Today the testing facilities are closing at 12 due to Public Holiday.

[NSWP]

4 hours ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

Counts from holiday weekends are always a bit skewed. Thursdays and Fridays usually give a better picture of what is happening around the world.

Yes, test numbers world wide have to be down over the holiday period.

[ollyoeno]

Has Omicron delayed the restart of cruise?

 

I heard something very interesting on our last cruise from an industry speaker who knows cruise companies are placing a growing emphasis on in-flight transmission this year and are funding flight transmission studies.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2020/11/20/another-study-finds-covid-19-can-spread-on-long-airline-flights/?sh=5628085379dc

 

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/travel/2020/11/23/covid-19-spread-new-zealand-study-details-long-haul-flight/6388833002/

 

Their comment was risk mitigation happens in all forms of travel and cruise shouldn't be singled out.

[MicCanberra]

I am not surprised  at all.

[NSWP]

Matter of interest, in Denmark they have planned for 7 booster shots, one every 6 months, then you get a free pizza, true.

[By The Bay]

Getting closer to Brad Hazzard's predication of 25,000 by end on January. We could be there by the end of this week.😔😷

 

"NSW has recorded 23,131 COVID-19 cases"

[MMDown Under]

34 minutes ago, By The Bay said:

Getting closer to Brad Hazzard's predication of 25,000 by end on January. We could be there by the end of this week.😔😷

 

"NSW has recorded 23,131 COVID-19 cases"

A friend went to chemist at Dorrigo looking for rapid tests to return to Queensland.  She got a text to say she had been near a positive person in the chemist in Dorrigo!  The virus is everywhere.  

[Chiliburn]

1 hour ago, NSWP said:

Matter of interest, in Denmark they have planned for 7 booster shots, one every 6 months, then you get a free pizza, true.

I like the Irish vaccination plan of free pints.

[NSWP]

8 minutes ago, Chiliburn said:

I like the Irish vaccination plan of free pints.

Of Guinness of course.

 

So here is the Pfizer shot loyalty card from Denmark, coming here soon I suppose. I am just back from my Moderna booster at Batehaven Chemist. The Pharmacist told me it was only half the dose of the first two shots, irrespective of whether Astra, Pfizer or Moderna...

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by NSWP

[ilikeanswers]

6 minutes ago, NSWP said:

Of Guinness of course.

 

So here is the Pfizer shot loyalty card from Denmark, coming here soon I suppose. I am just back from my Moderna booster at Batehaven Chemist. The Pharmacist told me it was only half the dose of the first two shots, irrespective of whether Astra, Pfizer or Moderna...

 

 

Are you sure that is not for Italy?  I would have thought Denmark would be offering meatballs or free smorgasbords😂. 

[Chiliburn]

2 minutes ago, NSWP said:

Of Guinness of course.

 

So here is the booster shot loyalty card from Denmark, coming here soon I suppose. I am just back from my Moderna booster at Batehaven Chemist. The Pharmacist told me it was only half dose of the first two shots, irrespective of whether Asta, Pfizer or Moderna...

 

Someone wanted to give a free beer here but they weren’t allowed.

I think it was something to do with not being able to promote or advertising of medicine? They can’t even give us a free pie.

 

I was talking to someone the other day how in the states they advertise on TV for blood pressure,diabetes and other medication.
 

`Tell your doctor today that you want *€¥%# blood pressure tablets,so you can live longer.