So is NCL ( NCLH ) in financial trouble ?

[cruiserbear55]

9 minutes ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

I put them right into the recycling bin. When looking at cruises I don't even consider NCL anymore.

 

   Then why do you read the NCL boards? Just wondering.

[Illbcruzn4life]

1 minute ago, cruiserbear55 said:

 

   Then why do you read the NCL boards? Just wondering.

I'm sorry I didn't know booking a specific cruise line was a prerequisite for reading a specific board.

[SeaShark]

2 minutes ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

I'm sorry I didn't know booking a specific cruise line was a prerequisite for reading a specific board.

 

Looking past the fact that nobody said it was a prerequisite, it is a legitimate question. There are, of course, dozens of cruise line boards. If you don't even consider NCL then why would you even look at, much less respond to, posts on this forum? 

 

If NCL is truly not up for consideration, then your presence here is similar to someone hanging around someone else after a break up. When its over, its time to move on...stalking is just, well, weird.

[J0Y0US]

57 minutes ago, PATRLR said:

I wonder how you knew.  If I took a strip and cut it to about the size of a tenderloin, how would you know the difference in a Teppenyaki environment?

 

Well I would just think you have a fairly terrible tenderloin and never go back.

 

So no you might pull a fast one but they are different cuts, the flavor would be different, and the chew would be different.

 

I could also put ground pork in your hamburger instead of beef and you might not know but it would taste off and you might not return again.

 

Oh and also any teppenyaki I have been to they cut the meat on the grill itself its not already cut up so you would be able to tell that way as well.

Edited January 4, 2023 by J0Y0US

[schmoopie17]

1 hour ago, msbrookelyn said:

They could DEFINITELY cut back on the mailings. 

Not to mention the Freestyle Dailies and the inserts. Couldn't they just put that info on the TV and be done with it? 

 

Of course, that would greatly reduce the number of people asking current cruisers to post copies on CC...

Edited January 4, 2023 by schmoopie17

[PATRLR]

9 minutes ago, schmoopie17 said:

Not to mention the Freestyle Dailies and the inserts. Couldn't they just put that info on the TV and be done with it? 

I'm sure this is coming, but, I for one would object.  I like my hardcopy Freestyle Daily.  

[mking8288]

Looks like our GA Teppenyaki is going to have a cancellation for 4 later this month, LOL.  (P.S. - perhaps, we'll switch the reservation to Moderno, at least one should a better choice of different cuts of red meat, even they are going to downgrade the cuts)

 

Where is that old cut of beef ?

Edited January 4, 2023 by mking8288

[Liljo22]

1 hour ago, SeaShark said:

 

Looking past the fact that nobody said it was a prerequisite, it is a legitimate question. There are, of course, dozens of cruise line boards. If you don't even consider NCL then why would you even look at, much less respond to, posts on this forum? 

 

If NCL is truly not up for consideration, then your presence here is similar to someone hanging around someone else after a break up. When its over, its time to move on...stalking is just, well, weird.

I don't get it either.  I mainly look at this and the RCI board because those are the two lines I current sail on.  I may look at Carnival and MSC to see what the temperature is because I may cruise them. 

 

I have sailed Disney but don't think they are worth it so I don't even look at their board.  I don't go to the Disney board and post that they are crazy expensive and not worth the price just to make their board angry.  I also don't go on any other boards that I am not considering because its not worth my time to.  

 

You then get called a cheerleader for defending a line against someone purposely here to cause negativity on the board.  

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, HuliHuli said:

Looks like the app got hung up in a loop.  Blame it on Shirley. 😁

Shirley, you jest. 😉

[schmoopie17]

1 hour ago, HuliHuli said:

Looks like the app got hung up in a loop.  Blame it on Shirley. 😁

Looks like you picked a bad day to give up...I mean, post on CC.

[eileeshb]

3 hours ago, schmoopie17 said:

Not to mention the Freestyle Dailies and the inserts. Couldn't they just put that info on the TV and be done with it? 

 

Of course, that would greatly reduce the number of people asking current cruisers to post copies on CC...

They went digital via the app when cruising first resumed but allowed people to request hard copies. There was obviously enough people asking for hard copies that they reverted to that. Their app needs a serious overhaul as does their website as both are horribly unstable. I’m a techie and couldn’t get the app to cooperate in giving me restaurant menus on one of my sailings no matter what I tried with a pretty common android phone. 
The need to improve the on-ship version of the app so it’s actually reliable and user friendly before they’ll convince everyone to go to the digital editions of the daily 

[DCGuy64]

I actually preferred having the Freestyle Daily on my phone using the app, which worked very well for us. It was helpful for me in locating various venues on the ship, but even better because I was able to text and call my wife on it. I was quite surprised at how well it worked. Some places you could even get menus by scanning the QR codes using the camera.

[eileeshb]

47 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

I actually preferred having the Freestyle Daily on my phone using the app, which worked very well for us. It was helpful for me in locating various venues on the ship, but even better because I was able to text and call my wife on it. I was quite surprised at how well it worked. Some places you could even get menus by scanning the QR codes using the camera.

When it worked it was good but unfortunately when it doesn’t work it fails miserably and there’s no fixing it.

[DCGuy64]

17 minutes ago, eileeshb said:

When it worked it was good but unfortunately when it doesn’t work it fails miserably and there’s no fixing it.

Huh, weird, I never had a problem with it. Sorry it didn't work for you. My wife had issues with hers at first, but she almost never turns her phone off. I restarted her phone and it worked fine after that. When we first started cruising, there was no such thing as an app and I have to say I like them.

[asmit4]

So here is a question for everyone--let's say they are in huge massive trouble. Let's say they go under---what happens with all the ships? The ships are their collateral and it's not like there are many buyers looking to buy the Prima or the Bliss. It's not like when someone goes bankrupt and the banks could take their house and resell it to a huge number of buyers. The only collateral they have to 'give up' are the ships themselves. Hardly a market for them. My guess is that the creditors are going to lose their butts but NCL will pull through just fine somehow. I feel like these cruise lines are too big/too unique to fail. 

[cruiserbear55]

21 minutes ago, asmit4 said:

I feel like these cruise lines are too big/too unique to fail. 

 

   Isn't that what was said about Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, among others?

[shof515]

30 minutes ago, asmit4 said:

So here is a question for everyone--let's say they are in huge massive trouble. Let's say they go under---what happens with all the ships? The ships are their collateral and it's not like there are many buyers looking to buy the Prima or the Bliss. It's not like when someone goes bankrupt and the banks could take their house and resell it to a huge number of buyers. The only collateral they have to 'give up' are the ships themselves. Hardly a market for them. My guess is that the creditors are going to lose their butts but NCL will pull through just fine somehow. I feel like these cruise lines are too big/too unique to fail. 

Look at what is happening with Crystal cruises. they went bankrupt, ships got sold and then a new company took over. when ships can not be sold, they can always be sent to the scrap yard that net about the same amount of money as selling

[JIMESOPUS]

14 minutes ago, shof515 said:

Look at what is happening with Crystal cruises. they went bankrupt, ships got sold and then a new company took over. when ships can not be sold, they can always be sent to the scrap yard that net about the same amount of money as selling

Carnival calls it recycling 

[njhorseman]

13 minutes ago, shof515 said:

Look at what is happening with Crystal cruises. they went bankrupt, ships got sold and then a new company took over. when ships can not be sold, they can always be sent to the scrap yard that net about the same amount of money as selling

A&K bought the Crystal Serenity for $103 million and the older Crystal Symphony for $25 million.

You're not going to get $103 million selling a ship for scrap, particularly since somewhere around 35 cruise ships have been sold to the breakers since the start of the pandemic.

[chengkp75]

27 minutes ago, shof515 said:

Look at what is happening with Crystal cruises. they went bankrupt, ships got sold and then a new company took over. when ships can not be sold, they can always be sent to the scrap yard that net about the same amount of money as selling

 

8 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

A&K bought the Crystal Serenity for $103 million and the older Crystal Symphony for $25 million.

You're not going to get $103 million selling a ship for scrap, particularly since somewhere around 35 cruise ships have been sold to the breakers since the start of the pandemic.

Yep.  Though the number of ships that have been scrapped has little effect on the scrap price (it is driven by the value the steel mill places on the steel), the current price in Turkey is $240/long ton (displacement, not gross tonnage), so Serenity would go for about $4.8 million on the scrap market, nowhere near the purchase price.

[Doglovertoo]

9 hours ago, msbrookelyn said:

They could DEFINITELY cut back on the mailings. Heres the thing... if most of us are going to cruise, we are already browsing and planning. Vacations are not something that you can trick people into doing. If it's happening, it's happening. You don't need to mail me postcards. 

We get buried in cruise catalogues from AMA waterways, Oceania and Holland.  We also get them From America Cruise Line and we’ve never sailed with them. I’ve requested from all of them to stop sending them.  It’s a waste of money and a waste of time to have to shred them. 

[curlstravel]

We cruised on Carnival in July and we could not eat the filet in the steakhouse.  The night before when we were in the main dining room it took an hour to get our food and we were only a table of two. I don’t think carnival would be a good alternative to NCL. 

 

 

 

[MyAuntFanny]

10 hours ago, PATRLR said:

I wonder how you knew.  If I took a strip and cut it to about the size of a tenderloin, how would you know the difference in a Teppenyaki environment?

Not OP, but the teppanyaki we go to near home, brings the steak out whole and cuts it up on the grill.  I would be suspicious if it came out already chopped.

[Beezo]

Bringing the thread back on track....

 

All of the cruise lines are in financial trouble, but are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel given no additional macro events other than Covid, war, inflation, recession continuing to trend negatively.

 

I do feel NCLs GTM strategy is sound - Market to Fill, NOT discount to sell.  Prime example of this is how Carnival has discounted tremendously to get the ships filled.  Now, they are seeing they have too much value compared to land based resorts.  Reversing pricing in this segment is SIGNIFICANTLY HARDER to than pricing down.  Carnival has been measuring on load factors, which is absolutely fine if that is their strategy.  With that - they are banking on higher onboard spending (alcohol, WiFi, photos, etc).  They are already increasing prices on WiFi now.

 

NCL is seeing a significantly longer booking window, which is key,  Customers are purchasing their fares further in advance, some paying in full.  By the time they get onboard they have a "fresh wallet."  Think in terms of living paycheck to paycheck.  If you have a significantly short booking period, only a certain percentage of that paycheck you are willing to spend onboard.  With a further out booking window, cruisers can spend a higher percentage on the actual cruise. 

 

Now - What helps NCL even better in this scenario - they have higher pricing than they have had historically.  2023 will be an interesting year.  Remember - even though they have record bookings, they cannot recognize that revenue until the cruise departs to wall st.  SO, pile on higher pricing, plus more onboard spending (which IS happening for NCL) they could have a great 2023.

 

Having said that - ALL of the cruise lines have a significant level of debt. Carnival is struggling to pay this down - they have had to dispose 20%+ of their fleet.  Below is a quick analysis of chances of bankruptcy.  Do take this lightly since there are a lot of factors than can happen - Ship sales, restructuring debt as it comes closer, etc.  NCL feels they can pay down their debt organically without issuing more shares and tapping into $1.7B of revolving credit they DO have access to. And remember - NONE of the cruise lines received bailouts like the airlines.

 

Chances of bankruptcy:

 

Carnival Corp - 45%

Royal Caribbean Group - 27%

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings - 52%

 

 

https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/NCLH/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/RCL/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/CCL/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

[Beezo]

16 hours ago, njhorseman said:

A&K bought the Crystal Serenity for $103 million and the older Crystal Symphony for $25 million.

You're not going to get $103 million selling a ship for scrap, particularly since somewhere around 35 cruise ships have been sold to the breakers since the start of the pandemic.

 

A&K didn't just get the ships - they bought the whole brand, which also includes customer records.  Gave them a significant headstart over just buying two ships and creating a brand (like Ambassador, CFC, Cordelia).