Airline fares up - will this drop cruise prices?

[DaveOKC]

Both American and Delta reported that they beat earnings projections for the second quarter and mentioned that fares and load factors we up nicely.  They credited the Max 737 issues as the reason.  I had noticed that pricing on my airfares have increased recently, so this was not a surprise.  

 

Anyway, I wonder if these higher airfares portend a demand decline for cruises, as most people fly to the departure ports.  If so, we should see some fares dropping.

 

Any thoughts?

 

[kazu]

 I don't think it has anything to do with people cruising less.

 

Our fares have definitely gone up and yes, Air Canada claims it is due to the removal of the 737 Max.  They have defiitely had to make some major itinerary changes (and yes, I got burned on one) to find a way to get people where they need to go with fewer planes and demand.

 

And flights are bound to be more full since there can be fewer of them for some itineraries.  JMO.

[Djptcp]

Not everyone flies to cruise ports - many people drive long distances to the ports to avoid expensive flights, uncertainty of their flights actually arriving on time, not having to worry about limited luggage, etc. We live in Florida and the port parking garages are always full plus many cruise passengers leave their cars at nearby hotels and get shuttled to the ports. I wouldn't say that the current high fare prices will affect the number of cruise passengers, if anything more will drive to the ports instead of fly.

[sevenseasnomad]

IMO, (for what it's worth), if people want to cruise, they'll find a way to budget for the transportation to/from the cruise port.  For some, it may mean taking fewer cruises or finding cheaper transportation, such as driving.  For a few, like my son, who has refused to fly since 9-11, whether the airlines charge more or less is a moot factor.  The airlines could give him a free seat, and he wouldn't take it!  Of course, most cruise passengers think more rationally about flying than he does.        

[*Miss G*]

Airfares are so fluid, anyway, that I can’t see them impacting cruising anymore than they do.  One minute a flight to another continent is doable and the next minute it’s not.  Earlier this year I found great pricing on an itinerary and flight, then had to wait for employer vacation approval.  By then the flight had jumped out of reach and I had to cancel.  Sometimes you just can’t get those ducks in a row.

[iancal]

Our domestic fares in Canada seem to have increased.   International fares are about the same. We have shopped/purchased both in the last two weeks.  We paid more for a domestic return ticket than we paid for a flight to Athens with a return from London.

 

With the exception of late booking Alaska fares, we find that cruise prices we have looked at are up right across the board.   

Edited July 11, 2019 by iancal

[Hlitner]

It is not just domestic fares.  We have a HAL booking for a cruise that embarks (next year) from Yokohama.  We locked-in a flex air Business Class  reservation as soon as the fares were open (330 days prior) and have continued to monitor prices in case we decide to change our  departure date (to Japan).  Yesterday we noticed a huge price increase on nearly every option.  We are talking increased of hundreds and even $1000+ for a single one-way reservation.  With International Bus or First Class we know that prices change on a regular basis, but we have never seen these kind of increases so far in advance.  The kind of flights and airlines we are viewing have nothing to do with the 737 Max.

 

Hank

[iancal]

That is odd.  We have been monitoring  mid Jan-March return flights from Canada  to Bangkok.  They are about the same price as they have been at this time over the past few years.   The flights we are shopping  transfer through either Narita, Taipei , or Seoul.

 

Last week we paid $735 ($565 USD) for open jaw  economy seats Toronto-Athens/London-Calgary.  Mid Sept departure, late Oct. return.   We looked briefly at some Med cruise fares. They were much higher than we paid in the past so we walked.  Doubt that we will even bother shopping for a last minute Med cruise while we are there.

 

 Shopping Bangkok winter return fares were $935 CAD on AC/ANA through Narita.  This is about par.  Over the past 5 years we have paid anywhere for $750 to $1000. for the same flight depending on when we booked.  Our experience is that the fare quotes are often  a little higher at this time of year  but tend to go down (for the same departure) in late Oct/early Nov when we typically book/buy.

Edited July 11, 2019 by iancal

[Krazy Kruizers]

None of the airlines we use had the 737 MAX planes operating out of here.  But I did check some prices and they have gone up.

 

Only time will tell if the cruise lines drop their fares.

[drowelf]

As someone who travels extensively both domestically and internationally for business, I long ago stopped trying to figure out what drives airline fares. There are so many factors that are used by the Revenue Management teams at the airlines to price fares. Some of the factors that are obvious: 

 

• Fuel Prices 
• Demand
• Current/Future load factors 
• Seasonal Factors

And sometimes just because they think they can. They will try some general across the board fare increases, but unless all the airlines jump in and match it, they tend to drop back down. 

 

Load factors for the NA based airlines are running very high (>90%). This makes it a sellers market. The consolidation that has taken place over the last 10 years has not been to the benefit of the consumer. We have less choice and more ancillary costs (Baggage, food, etc.). 

 

737Max grounding also has a small effect as it reduces the airlines capacity by small percentage. This can be expected to grow in 2020 as more of these planes the airlines expected to have in service still end up sitting in storage at various places around the US. 

Edited July 11, 2019 by drowelf

[Sailor Taylor]

Those who fly with miles may have even more advantage now.  

[SilvertoGold]

What I used to see was with high air fares, HAL would drop their crusie fares:  the total was more reasonable.  I've heard from friends who were ready to book, but the air was so high, the bottom line put them off.

[rucrazy]

6 hours ago, DaveOKC said:

Anyway, I wonder if these higher airfares portend a demand decline for cruises, as most people fly to the departure ports.  If so, we should see some fares dropping.

 

Any thoughts?

I see cruise line prices dropping only for none/slow selling itineraries, I do not think if will change pricing industry wide. 

At least not until the recession.

[bennybear]

I think it is supply and demand as usual.  If the flights to Japan are any where near cherry blossom time,  they will skyrocket as do the hotels.  The cruises are also more.

re the med,  I think since more ships are in Alaska the rates are lower.   It with fewer ships in the Med they are much higher, at least on HAL.  We are paying way more than we would like, BUT,  the itinerary is great and hits some new hard to get to spots.  So in the interest of having a great time,  off we go.😎

[FlaMariner]

The US economy is on fire.  Wages are up.  Inflation is still tame.  Stock market is setting records.  Unemployment is at historic lows.

 

It's no surprise that more folks are traveling and "supply and demand" is at work.

 

 

 

 

[ChinaShrek]

11 minutes ago, Sailor Taylor said:

Those who fly with miles may have even more advantage now.  

 

Doubtful. The airlines need to release award seats for us to use them. 

[FlaMariner]

4 minutes ago, ChinaShrek said:

 

Doubtful. The airlines need to release award seats for us to use them. 

Another reason to fly Southwest.  If there is a seat on the plane, your points can buy it.  

[DaveOKC]

2 minutes ago, FlaMariner said:

Another reason to fly Southwest.  If there is a seat on the plane, your points can buy it.  

But at a much higher price.  My SW flight in late Sept (over 2 months away) has tripled in the past month!

 

[FlaMariner]

Just now, DaveOKC said:

But at a much higher price.  My SW flight in late Sept (over 2 months away) has tripled in the past month!

 

Yep.  Supply and demand at work....As flight time draws near and the flight is filling up, the prices jump.  

 

And you can always buy it with points w/SW......although a boat load required.  At Delta, my options are NO and NO.

 

 

 

 

[DaveOKC]

15 minutes ago, FlaMariner said:

Yep.  Supply and demand at work....As flight time draws near and the flight is filling up, the prices jump.  

 

And you can always buy it with points w/SW......although a boat load required.  At Delta, my options are NO and NO.

 

 

 

 

SW is alot more flexible on alot of things and we fly them often.  They just changed my flight schedule (this rarely happens with them unlike other lines) and when I called them they were very easy to work work and I ended up with a better deal than I started with!  

 

You do have to understand their system however.  Once you do, its a good line to fly.

Edited July 11, 2019 by DaveOKC

[Roz]

Dave,

 

Please don't tell me airfare is going up. 😪  I'm waiting for August 15 when Southwest is supposed to extend its schedule so I can book my flights for my February Panama Canal cruise.

 

Roz

[GeorgesGal]

1 hour ago, ChinaShrek said:

1 hour ago, Sailor Taylor said:

Those who fly with miles may have even more advantage now.  

 

I'm not sure about that.  Have you seen the increase in miles required for an international flight?  They've risen 100% in many cases from a few years ago.  In 2017 on Delta, I needed  80,000 miles for r/t BCN/ATL.  This year it's 160,000!  No thanks - went to a consolidator instead. 

[DaveOKC]

3 minutes ago, Roz said:

Dave,

 

Please don't tell me airfare is going up. 😪  I'm waiting for August 15 when Southwest is supposed to extend its schedule so I can book my flights for my February Panama Canal cruise.

Roz

Too late - it already has!  Hopefully things will settle down by Spring.  Say hello to my two sons tomorrow - they are driving and the other flying in to your town!  We are having a reunion in Gatlinburg.

 

[iancal]

I believe that the 737 challenge has a long way to go.  This, and a healthy economy only point to one direction for domestic air fares.

Edited July 11, 2019 by iancal

[ChinaShrek]

1 hour ago, iancal said:

I believe that the 737 challenge has a long way to go.  This, and a healthy economy only point to one direction for domestic air fares.

 

Now, this could mean that another airline will enter the domestic market, which could eventually lead to lower prices.