HAL's Poor Response to Corona Virus

[npcl]

12 minutes ago, AncientWanderer said:

Team San Diego working hard on a vaccine.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7955695/British-scientist-42-races-against-time-invent-vaccine-stop-coronavirus-deaths.html

Inovio has indicated that if all goes well they could be doing a small clinical trial in China by early summer and a large trial by the end of the year. 

[npcl]

12 hours ago, AncientWanderer said:

Team San Diego working hard on a vaccine.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7955695/British-scientist-42-races-against-time-invent-vaccine-stop-coronavirus-deaths.html

A brief discussion on the steps involved in generating a vaccine:

 

1. Exploratory - Research intensive phase to identify or develop a candidate (those interviews where someone has stated that they have a vaccine are really saying that they have identified or developed a candidate)

2. Pre-Clinical - Testing using tissue cultures,  cell culture and or animal testing to validate the candidate.  Many fail at this step because they either do not produce the required immunity or harmful side effects are detected.

3. Clinical Development - If the candidate is successful in pre-clinical then an IND is generated and approval is obtained for testing in humans.

3A. Phase 1 -  administers the candidate vaccine to a small group (less than 100 people) with the goal of determining whether the candidate vaccine is safe and to learn more about the responses it provokes among test subjects.

3B Phase 2 - includes hundreds of human test subjects, aims to deliver more information about safety, immunogenicity, immunization schedule and dose size

3C Phase 3- includes thousands or tens of thousands of test subjects, continues to measure the safety (rare side effects sometimes don’t appear in smaller groups) and effectiveness of the candidate vaccine.

4. Regulatory Review and Approval

5. Commercial Manufacturing

6. Post Market Quality control that may involve phase 4 clinical trials, Vaccine adverse event reporting, vaccine safety data link.

 

The information from Inovio indicates that they have developed a candidate.  If the candidate works out in Pre-Clinical testing they could be in phase 2 trials in China in early summer, and phase 3 trials by the end of the year.  If everyone accelerates as much as possible and the data is good (it shows good efficacy and safety)  then you might see something available to the public sometime in 2021.

 

Of course with a vaccine trials it is not like treating people with a disease and then seeing how they respond to the drug, instead you need to treat a number of patients and then see how the test group compares to the population in how many catch the disease.  This means you have to have an environment where the disease is present to test. The main reason there are no approved SARS vaccines, even though candidates were developed, is because the outbreak died out before the candidates could be effectively tested.

[DivotMaker]

3 hours ago, npcl said:

A brief discussion on the steps involved in generating a vaccine:

 

1. Exploratory - Research intensive phase to identify or develop a candidate (those interviews where someone has stated that they have a vaccine are really saying that they have identified or developed a candidate)

2. Pre-Clinical - Testing using tissue cultures,  cell culture and or animal testing to validate the candidate.  Many fail at this step because they either do not produce the required immunity or harmful side effects are detected.

3. Clinical Development - If the candidate is successful in pre-clinical then an IND is generated and approval is obtained for testing in humans.

3A. Phase 1 -  administers the candidate vaccine to a small group (less than 100 people) with the goal of determining whether the candidate vaccine is safe and to learn more about the responses it provokes among test subjects.

3B Phase 2 - includes hundreds of human test subjects, aims to deliver more information about safety, immunogenicity, immunization schedule and dose size

3C Phase 3- includes thousands or tens of thousands of test subjects, continues to measure the safety (rare side effects sometimes don’t appear in smaller groups) and effectiveness of the candidate vaccine.

4. Regulatory Review and Approval

5. Commercial Manufacturing

6. Post Market Quality control that may involve phase 4 clinical trials, Vaccine adverse event reporting, vaccine safety data link.

 

The information from Inovio indicates that they have developed a candidate.  If the candidate works out in Pre-Clinical testing they could be in phase 2 trials in China in early summer, and phase 3 trials by the end of the year.  If everyone accelerates as much as possible and the data is good (it shows good efficacy and safety)  then you might see something available to the public sometime in 2021.

 

Of course with a vaccine trials it is not like treating people with a disease and then seeing how they respond to the drug, instead you need to treat a number of patients and then see how the test group compares to the population in how many catch the disease.  This means you have to have an environment where the disease is present to test. The main reason there are no approved SARS vaccines, even though candidates were developed, is because the outbreak died out before the candidates could be effectively tested.

 

Thank you for the very detailed and educational response.  I found this very helpful.  One question, and I hope it doesn't happen, but in the event of a VERY serious outbreak of something that was killing a high number of people, can or would the timeframe/steps of this process be shortened?  Thanks.

 

[npcl]

1 minute ago, DivotMaker said:

 

Thank you for the very detailed and educational response.  I found this very helpful.  One question, and I hope it doesn't happen, but in the event of a VERY serious outbreak of something that was killing a high number of people, can or would the timeframe/steps of this process be shortened?  Thanks.

 

This is assuming that the steps are shortened as much as possible, usually this process will take years. One can assume that the regulatory processes will be shortened as much as possible, but unfortunately it takes time to get data on efficacy and safety before it goes into Clinical and each step there depends upon the disease itself since you have to vaccinate healthy individuals and then wait and see how many get sick compared to the non-vaccinated population. Then repeating with a larger test population if it shows efficacy and safety in the first.

 

I guess one could always test by vaccinating and then exposing the person to the virus, but that would not be considered to be ethical or moral in any drug development environment that I have worked with (US, Europe, Japan Canada).

[DivotMaker]

38 minutes ago, npcl said:

This is assuming that the steps are shortened as much as possible, usually this process will take years. One can assume that the regulatory processes will be shortened as much as possible, but unfortunately it takes time to get data on efficacy and safety before it goes into Clinical and each step there depends upon the disease itself since you have to vaccinate healthy individuals and then wait and see how many get sick compared to the non-vaccinated population. Then repeating with a larger test population if it shows efficacy and safety in the first.

 

I guess one could always test by vaccinating and then exposing the person to the virus, but that would not be considered to be ethical or moral in any drug development environment that I have worked with (US, Europe, Japan Canada).

 

Thanks again, much appreciated.

[Mary229]

If I was scheduled for these cruises and concerned to the point of cancelling and did not have the insurance coverage necessary I would not cancel until the very last hour feasible.  This situation is rapidly evolving and the cruiselines' stance may change.  You don't want to miss out on change of policy to refund passengers because you acted too hastily.  If you are going to lose your money what is the point of the hurry.    (I do think there might be an overreaction by all involved - governments, health agencies, etc... but it is not my call what to do nor tell others what risks they should or should not take)

[mcrcruiser]

23 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

If I was scheduled for these cruises and concerned to the point of cancelling and did not have the insurance coverage necessary I would not cancel until the very last hour feasible.  This situation is rapidly evolving and the cruiselines' stance may change.  You don't want to miss out on change of policy to refund passengers because you acted too hastily.  If you are going to lose your money what is the point of the hurry.    (I do think there might be an overreaction by all involved - governments, health agencies, etc... but it is not my call what to do nor tell others what risks they should or should not take)

Mary most people get insurance  when they book a cruise  .In our case we have the Chase Manhattan Bank ,Sapphire preferred credit card ;which by using it to book our cruises we automatically get up to $10000.00 per person (Max $20000 of insurance ) to cover trip cancellation & trip interruption  for free  .If we do go on the cruises then we get medical & medical evacuation   policy ,at squaremouth.com

 

 

 We are 81 & 80 with underlying medical problems ;thus ,we are in the high risk categories  for cruising . We have 2 cruises booked for April  & no one knows where this corona virus will be at that time . So ,I phoned my doctors office to get letters  that we can use to cancel these 2 cruises & get all our monies  returned  .where the ship is going is generally not on the higher risk areas .Both the Mexican Riviera   7 night cruise & the B2B coastal California cruise ,7 nights would not be considered high risk ,However ,as I said earlier no one knows how spread this virus could be at that time 

[Mary229]

5 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

Mary most people get insurance  when they book a cruise  .In our case we have the Chase Manhattan Bank ,Sapphire preferred credit card ;which by using it to book our cruises we automatically get up to $10000.00 per person (Max $20000 of insurance ) to cover trip cancellation & trip interruption  for free  .If we do go on the cruises then we get medical & medical evacuation   policy ,at squaremouth.com

 

 

 We are 81 & 80 with underlying medical problems ;thus ,we are in the high risk categories  for cruising . We have 2 cruises booked for April  & no one knows where this corona virus will be at that time . So ,I phoned my doctors office to get letters  that we can use to cancel these 2 cruises & get all our monies  returned  .where the ship is going is generally not on the higher risk areas .Both the Mexican Riviera   7 night cruise & the B2B coastal California cruise ,7 nights would not be considered high risk ,However ,as I said earlier no one knows how spread this virus could be at that time 

I understand that and recommended that course of action early in this discussion.  Even though I am not particularly elderly I have a condition that would exclude me medically but not everyone has that.  I think for those who don't they shouldn't be so quick to lose money as things may change in their behalf.  For those who can take measures without a financial loss , by all means, do so.  

Edited February 3, 2020 by Mary229

[Viv0828]

6 hours ago, Mary229 said:

You don't want to miss out on change of policy to refund passengers because you acted too hastily.  If you are going to lose your money what is the point of the hurry.

 

excellent advice actually. no rush unless you get an offer you can't refuse.

[dukepfl]

Since the government has banned travel to China, Holland wants us to cruise to Japan. There are already cases of the virus in Japan and I don’t  want to go anywhere in Asia right now. However, Holland refuses to refund the money  - instead offering another cruise, but it has to be in 2020. Seems to me they should be more flexible since this emergency is out of our hands. Some people can’t take another cruise in 2020. Shouldn’t they offer to refund $$$? Airlines have been great about refunding  $$$ with no problem. What recourse do we have? How can we put pressure on Holland to do the right and fair thing? 

[misha227]

I'm booked on the Westerdam from February 15 to 29. I'm fine with the change in itinerary, and was looking forward to Japan and South Korea actually. But now I see that the Diamond Princess has a 2-week quarantine in effect--this, I would not be fine with.

 

I bought travel insurance but it does not include cancel for any reason. I was unhappy to find out that, even with a letter from my physician documenting asthma, the travel insurance would not pay out and considers this "fear of traveling" (which is not covered).

 

I'm not afraid of getting the virus--I understand the risks of that and am willing to take on those risks--but I am unwilling to subject myself to a two-week quarantine either on ship or on a military base when re-entering the USA. Looking into my options now.

[Viv0828]

10 hours ago, dukepfl said:

What recourse do we have? How can we put pressure on Holland to do the right and fair thing? 

 

at this point none - unless you live near seattle and maybe you can take them to small claims court. we were on the cruise that starts on the 15th. so far we are just waiting them out. out TA is trying in vain to negotiate with them. if things get worse, HAL may start to get more reasonable. only time will tell.

[Level six]

3 minutes ago, Viv0828 said:

 

at this point none - unless you live near seattle and maybe you can take them to small claims court. we were on the cruise that starts on the 15th. so far we are just waiting them out. out TA is trying in vain to negotiate with them. if things get worse, HAL may start to get more reasonable. only time will tell.

 

I thought you were on the FEB 1 sailing like I was.  I would wait, I think you will get a refund.  

 

[Mary229]

For cruises this month if you have not been offered a refund I would call them and see if they give you a credit toward a future cruise.  Again there is no point in proactively taking a loss, let the situation play out or call them and negotiate.

[AncientWanderer]

Someone on another forum brought up something important:  If you are sailing soon, be sure to pack enough meds for any extra time, just in case there are hang-ups with disembarking or flying home.  I'd add to that list contact lenses, maybe some extra reading materials, whatever comfort items one would like to have.  I'd have a more relaxed cruise, knowing I was a bit prepared.

[Viv0828]

1 hour ago, Level six said:

I thought you were on the FEB 1 sailing like I was.  I would wait, I think you will get a refund.  

 

no, we were on the feb 15 to march 14 sailing. many of us posted on the feb 1 to feb 29 board because of the overlap.

we are waiting - we have some medical insurance but to file a claim we have to actually cancel the cruise.

we would rather wait and have HAL pay.  as of yesterday, HAL offered another cruise but not one we wanted to take. i'd rather have my $$ back.

some folks enjoy floating around at sea. not me. i cruise for the ports and the thought of being unable to land would be very claustrophobic. ugh. to each his or her own though.

Edited February 5, 2020 by Viv0828

[Queen of DaNile]

25 minutes ago, AncientWanderer said:

Someone on another forum brought up something important:  If you are sailing soon, be sure to pack enough meds for any extra time, just in case there are hang-ups with disembarking or flying home.  I'd add to that list contact lenses, maybe some extra reading materials, whatever comfort items one would like to have.  I'd have a more relaxed cruise, knowing I was a bit prepared.

Good idea for no matter where you may be traveling to in the near future.🚤✈️

[Viv0828]

just when you think it can't get any worse:

 

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/02/05/hawaii-couple-among-s-quarantined-cruise-ship-off-japan-after-passengers-fall-ill-with-coronavirus/

 

ps  i think this is the diamond princess though the ship's name was omitted.

[cruisemom42]

4 minutes ago, Viv0828 said:

just when you think it can't get any worse:

 

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/02/05/hawaii-couple-among-s-quarantined-cruise-ship-off-japan-after-passengers-fall-ill-with-coronavirus/

 

ps  i think this is the diamond princess though the ship's name was omitted.

 

Yes, it's the Diamond Princess.

 

Someone from that ship is posting occasionally on this thread over on the Princess Forums:

 

 

[sail7seas]

15 hours ago, dukepfl said:

Since the government has banned travel to China, Holland wants us to cruise to Japan. There are already cases of the virus in Japan and I don’t  want to go anywhere in Asia right now. However, Holland refuses to refund the money  - instead offering another cruise, but it has to be in 2020. Seems to me they should be more flexible since this emergency is out of our hands. Some people can’t take another cruise in 2020. Shouldn’t they offer to refund $$$? Airlines have been great about refunding  $$$ with no problem. What recourse do we have? How can we put pressure on Holland to do the right and fair thing? 

 

 

I wish they were   refunding as this is a circumstance no fault  of t he individuals BUT also, no fault of  the cruise line  I   would strongly wonder if HAL ha s insurance  that will  pay fo r all those who are seeking  refunds.If that is the case I would have a very different opinion as to their  stance to give  no  refunds.

[HAL Sailer]

3 hours ago, Viv0828 said:

...some folks enjoy floating around at sea. not me. i cruise for the ports and the thought of being unable to land would be very claustrophobic. ugh....

 

(BOLD mine) And it's more than not being able to land.  On the Diamond Princess thread it has been confirmed that passengers are confined to their cabins. Verandah passengers can go out on their balcony but OV cabins can only look out their windows and INSIDE passengers can only see the sky, sun by watching televised bow/stern camera.

[Dunelm]

On ‎1‎/‎28‎/‎2020 at 9:44 AM, MAVIP said:

This was the 1st that came to mind when I read the "article" with an unnamed media-"source". I will start reading the other comments.

It is always wise to check facts by going to several media sources.  I applaud all the journalists that every day risk their lives to bring us informed news.  Other people's comments are not always informed.

[CCMP]

I don't think I have seen this mentioned in this forum.  It seems HAL has changed one aspect.  I note this posting which says it was updated yesterday which will reimburse up to $250 per person for flight changes as a result in the change in embark/debark ports:

 

For guests who sail and are required to modify their flights as a result of a change to embark/debark port we will cover up to $250 per person in airline change fees for carriers who are charging fees. This excludes fare differences. Proof should be sent to the following address and compensation will be issued in the form of an onboard credit.

 

Holland America Line
Attn: Guest Relations
450 Third Avenue West
Seattle, WA 98119
Fax: (206) 905-8962
Email: guestrelations@hollandamerica.com

 

We aren't going in any event, but thought this may be of interest to some folks.  It certainly was not in any email I received, but I saw this posting.  

[MAVIP]

8 hours ago, Dunelm said:

It is always wise to check facts by going to several media sources.  I applaud all the journalists that every day risk their lives to bring us informed news.  Other people's comments are not always informed.

I fully agree. That's the reason why I reacted as I did on the words "Fake News". Check and double check.

[thaires23a]

• December 14, 2019
•  
• 8 posts
• Chaing Mai Northern Thailand

• Report post
•  
•  #326

Posted just now

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told a task force dealing with the coronavirus outbreak that the cruise ship, Westerdam, is scheduled to make a port call in Japan in coming days.

He said that it has been confirmed that there is a passenger suspected of having developed symptoms caused by the deadly virus.

Abe said that the government will refuse foreign nationals aboard the ship entry based on Japan's immigration control act.

The government decided earlier to tighten immigration controls and deny entry of foreign nationals who meet certain criteria.

Abe added that the government will apply the law to other similar cases.

 

surely westerdam will now pull forthcoming cruises - there's nowhere left to accept her