Disney may not open until 2021 How about cruise ships?

[orville99]

32 minutes ago, bouhunter said:

The 80-90% failure rates you're quoting are for START UP restaurants.  To infer that applies to all restaurants is grossly inaccurate and misleading.  

If you read the reference I provided, you will see that I was discussing restaurant failures in the first five years of their operation. I never inferred that any number that I was referencing referred to restaurants that survived the five year mortality numbers. I would posit, however, that a significant number of restaurant failures that were inevitable because of existing operational and management issues, will still fail even after receiving a bailout. The reality is that out of every 100 restaurant start-ups in a normal given year, less than 20 still exist five years later, and when you throw in a pandemic effect, 10 of those remaining 20 will also close.

[orville99]

Should have added: The average annual failure rate for independent restaurants that survive the five year mark is between 15-20%.

[mpk]

3 hours ago, orville99 said:

One of the reasons why I quoted the experts in this area is that they actively track the industry. While you may not have seen 90% of the restaurants fail in your area, have you visited 90% of the restaurants in your area? Have you seen a restaurant continue to exist in a location but the name changes? Have you seen an owner walk away and be replaced by a new owner? Have you seen an Italian restaurant suddenly become a Greek restaurant? Have you used a caterer that no longer caters? All of those are mortality events that are counted in that 90%.

 

I appreciate those points, but that 90% figure still doesn't pass the smell test.  For me, anyway.  (My in-laws are in the restaurant industry).

 

I don't think either of us will convince the other  🙂       My point is that studies, especially those with incredible results, can be biased by how the study is conducted.  It's like opposing expert witnesses in court-- they're both pedigreed and all that, but have completely different expert opinions.  Or the dueling studies about the benefits or pitfalls or a given vegetable.

 

 

Here's a paper from Stanford University discussing study results in general (emphasis mine):

study results are subjected to many biases and interpretations at every level between inception and publication.  [...]  fail to reflect the genuine results and are at times utterly incorrect. Industries touting their products, scientists influenced by grants and prestige, reviewers adhering to personal political agendas, and journalists pressed to sell papers all in turn contribute to the inherently skewed depiction of scientific results to the public. These factors have allowed for a highly unpredictable credibility in scientific reporting, an observation that has been highly overlooked and disregarded.

[keishashadow]

9 hours ago, CruiszBug said:

  15 hours ago, datolim said:

 

I own points in Disney Vacation Club and have multiple weeks booked from now until November. When I called Member Services to ask what would happen to the points I used to book my existing mid-summer reservation (since my deadline to bank/rollover  un-used points is next week.) They told me the points would expire in September. I would have to use those points by September or I would end up losing them!

 

Disney is automatically cancelling reservations 7 days before vacation start date.  Even if the resorts do not reopen for the rest of the year which means I could potentially have no opportunity to re-book using those points - so I would LOSE them. But I guaran-darn-tee ya they will still charge me my annual dues and property taxes! YIKES! This is crazy town...

 

Yeah... I cancelled my reservation

 

U saiD ur points expire the end of September. =October UY  Those points would need to be banked by end of May, not April

 

re DVC MS & Disney in general, it often to pays to call back if you don’t like the first answer you receive. 

 

 

[CruiszBug]

3 hours ago, keishashadow said:

 

U saiD ur points expire the end of September. =October UY  Those points would need to be banked by end of May, not April

 

re DVC MS & Disney in general, it often to pays to call back if you don’t like the first answer you receive. 

 

 

I should have said must be checked out by Sep 1... I have a September use year. The Cast Member put me on hold to talk to a supervisor first. So it's coming from at least one level up of management. Of course it could change by the end of the year, as anything. I was trying to lend my support to those thinking Disney may not be reopening in June. 

[keishashadow]

3 minutes ago, CruiszBug said:

I should have said must be checked out by Sep 1... I have a September use year. The Cast Member put me on hold to talk to a supervisor first. So it's coming from at least one level up of management. Of course it could change by the end of the year, as anything. I was trying to lend my support to those thinking Disney may not be reopening in June. 

Fl task force requested to submit info to their governor by the weekend.  Details should be emerging soon in game plan. Universal exec has made statements today. They tend to follow each other on security practices etc 

[B-52]

Easier to quarantine en entire ship, and prevent it from returning to port than quarantining and isolating unknown #'s at a Theme park such as Disney.

[bobmacliberty]

9 hours ago, mac_tlc said:

Disney World uses it now for the Rise of the Resistance attraction at Hollywood Studios. All done via the mydisneyexperience app. Unfortunately, so far the entire days capacity is usually “sold out” within 10 minutes of park opening. If they did it for a large number or all attractions, it wouldn’t be that bad. They have the technology available now.

 

mac_tlc

 

So it works like a fast pass, but on a mobile device and with no "main" line?  Show up within a preset time frame like a 15 minute window?  It would still seem like people would need to gather somewhere...just in a line with fewer people that moves faster??

[mac_tlc]

51 minutes ago, bobmacliberty said:

 

So it works like a fast pass, but on a mobile device and with no "main" line?  Show up within a preset time frame like a 15 minute window?  It would still seem like people would need to gather somewhere...just in a line with fewer people that moves faster??

More complicated than a FP. 
 

For the Rise of the Resistance ride, they assign a “boarding group”. As soon as the park opens, anyone that has actually scanned into the park can try to get a boarding group. Everything happens though the app. If you have more than one person, they ALL must be inside the park. So they open the turnstiles 30 minutes before opening time and people swarm in and just stand somewhere until they open the virtual process through the app. Once you have a boarding group, you are notified via the app when your group is called. Go to the attraction and then it’s sorta like a FP line. 
 

A number of issues have come up since that ride opened in December. 
1) it’s so popular that all of the days boarding groups are full about 10 minutes after park opening. When we went in January, we had to get to the park around 5:30am for a 6am opening. If you are not there as soon as it opens you won’t get on.

2) The ride had some operational issues and at times was not running. If you got a high number group and it is down for any length of time, you may not get on. 
 

If they used it for a lot of rides, you probably would not have the problem of having to be there at park opening. 
 

BTW, the ride itself was worth it! It is spectacular, and very different than anything else they have. 
 

mac_tlc

[Rancher Dave]

On 4/22/2020 at 11:07 AM, bobmacliberty said:

I've been purchasing gift certificates for local businesses/restaurants where possible.  They are often sold at a discounted rate.  If enough people do this, it may keep enough cash flow going to keep some of these businesses afloat.  And yes, they can go out of business and my gift certificates become worthless.  I can afford it...they can't.

 

It is a great thing to do for places you want to use in the future.   Today I saw 2 specials offered up to places we go but that are unlikely to survive given they were both nearly dead already.  There are a lot of local mom and pop places that I would get gift cards to in order to help them now and they give me good food/service later when they can sit me at a table. One has been doing small specials every week and we have been there probably on average every other week since the virus hit. 

[SarahD112]

Can you imagine what the cost of a Disney park ticket would be if they have to drop their attendance numbers by 50%? If only half the normal number of people can enter a park each day? The demand will be so high that they could put any price they want on it. For less crowds, people will be willing to pay it. But if rides operate at 50% capacity - every other row blocked off for instance - then lines won’t be any shorter. So you’d pay more and the same long waits? Hmmm... 

[Cruisin_n_Boozin]

6 hours ago, SarahD112 said:

Can you imagine what the cost of a Disney park ticket would be if they have to drop their attendance numbers by 50%? If only half the normal number of people can enter a park each day? The demand will be so high that they could put any price they want on it. For less crowds, people will be willing to pay it. But if rides operate at 50% capacity - every other row blocked off for instance - then lines won’t be any shorter. So you’d pay more and the same long waits? Hmmm... 

 

It's an interesting point you bring up.  Initial thought is, similar to cruising, I would be willing to pay more for a 50% capacity trip to Disney or cruise.  But as you stated, if attractions are at 50% capacity as well, it defeats the purpose.  Would be less stressful walking through the parks, but lines would still be the same.

 

I am guessing that they would create a FP+/Virtual Queue hybrid that everyone has to use so there wouldn't be standard queues.  In that case, may still be worth the additional cost for an overall more relaxing experience.

[time4u2go]

50 minutes ago, Cruisin_n_Boozin said:

 

It's an interesting point you bring up.  Initial thought is, similar to cruising, I would be willing to pay more for a 50% capacity trip to Disney or cruise.  But as you stated, if attractions are at 50% capacity as well, it defeats the purpose.  Would be less stressful walking through the parks, but lines would still be the same.

 

I am guessing that they would create a FP+/Virtual Queue hybrid that everyone has to use so there wouldn't be standard queues.  In that case, may still be worth the additional cost for an overall more relaxing experience.

I'm guessing they would give priority to people staying at their hotels.

[molly361]

18 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

I'm guessing they would give priority to people staying at their hotels.

I saw somewhere (not official)  that at first they would only let hotel guests use the park which sounds like a good idea.  

[molly361]

NCL just extended their suspension thru the end of June

[danv3]

9 hours ago, SarahD112 said:

Can you imagine what the cost of a Disney park ticket would be if they have to drop their attendance numbers by 50%? If only half the normal number of people can enter a park each day? The demand will be so high that they could put any price they want on it. For less crowds, people will be willing to pay it. But if rides operate at 50% capacity - every other row blocked off for instance - then lines won’t be any shorter. So you’d pay more and the same long waits? Hmmm... 

 

And what do they do with the people who already have purchased date-limited tickets for later this year?  Cancel them all and then re-sell the new, higher priced tickets?  

[orville99]

24 minutes ago, danv3 said:

 

And what do they do with the people who already have purchased date-limited tickets for later this year?  Cancel them all and then re-sell the new, higher priced tickets?  

Probably the same thing they're doing to DVC members who used points to book vacations at one of the resorts this year - they've apparently told all those people tough luck, you lose the points, and BTW your monthly DVC bill is still due. My guess is you're S.O.L.

[danv3]

4 minutes ago, orville99 said:

Probably the same thing they're doing to DVC members who used points to book vacations at one of the resorts this year - they've apparently told all those people tough luck, you lose the points, and BTW your monthly DVC bill is still due. My guess is you're S.O.L.

They're going to end up having to do something for DVC members.  Given all the closures, there are far more points remaining to be spent this year than there are room-nights available (even assuming a relatively early re-opening, like June 1).  https://dvcnews.com/other-resources/feature-articles/4734-disney-vacation-club-s-covid-19-dilemma

 

What they'll end up doing, I have no idea.  If they give people longer to use their points it's just going to lead to supply issues into 2021.  I'm glad I'm not the one having to figure that out!

[orville99]

46 minutes ago, danv3 said:

They're going to end up having to do something for DVC members.  Given all the closures, there are far more points remaining to be spent this year than there are room-nights available (even assuming a relatively early re-opening, like June 1).  https://dvcnews.com/other-resources/feature-articles/4734-disney-vacation-club-s-covid-19-dilemma

 

What they'll end up doing, I have no idea.  If they give people longer to use their points it's just going to lead to supply issues into 2021.  I'm glad I'm not the one having to figure that out!

Living within earshot of WDW for the last 20+ years, we've learned that Disney rarely (if ever) does anything that an outside influence says they "have" to do - they only do what they're forced to do. 

[time4u2go]

1 hour ago, orville99 said:

Probably the same thing they're doing to DVC members who used points to book vacations at one of the resorts this year - they've apparently told all those people tough luck, you lose the points, and BTW your monthly DVC bill is still due. My guess is you're S.O.L.

One of several reasons I would never buy a timeshare.

[Iamcruzin]

2 hours ago, molly361 said:

I saw somewhere (not official)  that at first they would only let hotel guests use the park which sounds like a good idea.  

I agree. They can control the hotel reservations better than just having millions show up at the gate early in the morning. 

[bgcruiser]

For Theme park tickets already purchased for this year, that haven't been used, Disney has already extended the expiration date to 12/31/2020. If a guess is unable to travel this year, Disney will extend the expiration till 12/31/2021 on those tickets. (Info from Dis Boards).

Everyone is absolutely correct about Social Distancing. Trying to maintain 6 feet, 10 feet, 13 feet or whatever the recommended distance du jour is on any given day is really a herculean task. We all know it's important, I do, so please don't "flame me". But there will always be situations, despite our best efforts will it just becomes impossible,  Theme Parks, Cruise Ships, Parks, Beaches, even grocery stores. People just drift into each others space, it happens. So perhaps what we are headed for is a "wear a face covering at all times in public" edict. As a retired Health Care Provider having to wear a "mask" whenever I am out and about would not be something I would enjoy but if that could move us all forward until there is a proven vaccine, and we are all innoculated then I would certainly embrace the practice.

Anyone else?

[danv3]

5 hours ago, orville99 said:

Living within earshot of WDW for the last 20+ years, we've learned that Disney rarely (if ever) does anything that an outside influence says they "have" to do - they only do what they're forced to do. 

 

Just announced today, they're extending April and June 2019 use years for a year if used for a canceled reservation.  

 

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/policies-a-procedures/news-70636/4743-dvc-extends-cornoavirus-impacted-points-temporarily-limits-borrowing

 

"Points with April and June 2019 Use Years (which were to expire March 31, 2020 and May 31, 2020, respectively) will be extended for one additional year. Points from April and June 2018 Use Years which had previously been banked into 2019 will be extended for an additional six months."

[zekekelso]

5 hours ago, time4u2go said:

One of several reasons I would never buy a timeshare.

 

While I agree in general, if you are a "Disney person" their timeshare has worked out great over the past 30 years. 

Edited April 24, 2020 by zekekelso

[keishashadow]

22 hours ago, mac_tlc said:

1) it’s so popular that all of the days boarding groups are full about 10 minutes after park opening. When we went in January, we had to get to the park around 5:30am for a 6am opening. If you are not there as soon as it opens you won’t get on.

No guarantee even if refreshing that app

at the start.

 

Have been fortunate to enjoy several times. we are semi retired, have several DVC contracts & cheap airfare. already had to cancel Easter trip & cruise😔, who knows how the rest of year will pan out  
 

smart Money Is on the theme parks slowly coming back, Limited To locals first with extensively limited activities to encourage social distancing.  Still hanging onto my DVC res there for 3 other trips but will cancel them at the last minute possible to preserve/bank my points 

 

Early on Disney was comping free PH tickets If your boarding group wasn’t called Using the virtual queue. I’m sitting in a few of those that we’ll use for family 

 

On pres day weekend, despite thinking I had the system down to grab boarding group, was shut out for first time. all spots gone in less than a minute ugh. Explained to me when they are near capacity it’s akin to a lottery   The following day the app only let me book for some of my party, they did fixed that for us.
 

It’s not a perfect system but it is a work in progress. Expect it to be used extensively going forward by Disney & others who adapt the technology