Is there additional information about Princess restarting their cruise schedule?

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

2 hours ago, Coupe said:

What changes everything is herd immunity. That can be reached through natural means of contact or a vaccine. That is the only thing that defeats a virus. 

 

Life is full of risk. If you don't want to cruise - don't. If you are unhealthy - stay home.

 

I believe most people will stick their heads up this Summer and realize that things are not nearly as bad as the media was portraying. Either get out there and live your life or hide under your bed - your choice. Vaccine or not - you will most likely come in contact with the virus sometime in the next year just from living your life.

 

 

 

You are so correct. 

[npcl]

34 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

While I would not hold myself to be an expert, I have spent more then 1200 days cruising on over 75 different ships...so do have a little knowledge of being on ships, both mass market (i.e. Princess) and ultra luxury.  Social distancing on mass market ships is a near impossibility primarily because of the design of ships.   Just consider the elevator situation for starters.  Princess theaters are designed somewhat smaller then many of their competitors which often has the theaters full or near full.  If they were to limit folks to every other seat it would take 5-6 shows to give everyone a chance to see a particular show.   Many of the princess Lidos are designed with minimal serving stations which are crammed into relatively tight areas.  The new Royal Class does have a much nicer open design (which would help support some social distancing) but the seating it too limited.  Deck chairs/loungers are located within inches of each other.  The only way to improve that situation would be to sale the ship's about half full which would mean losing money on each sailing....so that is not going to happen.   And lets not forget the bars/lounges.  The business model for mass market ships is to maximize onboard revenue....part of which comes from booze.  Maintaining social distancing in bars/lounges would be very difficult to impossible.

 

The cruise lines have tried all kinds of mitigation measures to minimize the risk or Norovirus and yet, Noro was still relatively common on ships.  Like COVID-19, these bugs are brought aboard by passengers/crew and there is no effective way to guarantee that nobody is carrying those bugs.

 

What can Princess do?  I have no solution.  Even quarantining passengers to their cabins on the Diamond Princess did not stop the spread of COVID-19.  There are apparently several ongoing studies trying to determine how COVID-19 kept spreading on the Diamond Princess and we have read a few theories.  But they are just that....theories.   They will likely stat cruising again with only some theories on how to mitigate COVID-19.  But cases are still going to happen on some ships.  What then?

 

Hank

The Japanese have done some very good analysis on the Diamond.  Including both symptom development timing, as well as cabin locations.  Part of which was present in a documentary by NHK that someone posted in one of the streams.  According to the Institute of Infectious Disease the patterns indicate that the passengers were mostly infected prior to the start of quarantine or by their cabin mates after the quarantine started.  The crew cases, where the symptoms developed later were largely after quarantine started and was due to them still interacting in close quarters (working, eating, etc) more so than cabin locations.  They also found that while the crew was trained in how to use PPD in the early days of the quarantines they were often observed loosening the straps of their masks or otherwise wearing them incorrectly.  ALso they seemed to depend too much on gloves and while wearing them did not clean or sanitize them as often as they should turning the gloves into transfer mechanisms.

[harkinmr]

30 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

While I would not hold myself to be an expert, I have spent more then 1200 days cruising on over 75 different ships...so do have a little knowledge of being on ships, both mass market (i.e. Princess) and ultra luxury.  Social distancing on mass market ships is a near impossibility primarily because of the design of ships.   Just consider the elevator situation for starters.  Princess theaters are designed somewhat smaller then many of their competitors which often has the theaters full or near full.  If they were to limit folks to every other seat it would take 5-6 shows to give everyone a chance to see a particular show.   Many of the princess Lidos are designed with minimal serving stations which are crammed into relatively tight areas.  The new Royal Class does have a much nicer open design (which would help support some social distancing) but the seating it too limited.  Deck chairs/loungers are located within inches of each other.  The only way to improve that situation would be to sale the ship's about half full which would mean losing money on each sailing....so that is not going to happen.   And lets not forget the bars/lounges.  The business model for mass market ships is to maximize onboard revenue....part of which comes from booze.  Maintaining social distancing in bars/lounges would be very difficult to impossible.

 

The cruise lines have tried all kinds of mitigation measures to minimize the risk or Norovirus and yet, Noro was still relatively common on ships.  Like COVID-19, these bugs are brought aboard by passengers/crew and there is no effective way to guarantee that nobody is carrying those bugs.

 

What can Princess do?  I have no solution.  Even quarantining passengers to their cabins on the Diamond Princess did not stop the spread of COVID-19.  There are apparently several ongoing studies trying to determine how COVID-19 kept spreading on the Diamond Princess and we have read a few theories.  But they are just that....theories.   They will likely stat cruising again with only some theories on how to mitigate COVID-19.  But cases are still going to happen on some ships.  What then?

 

Hank

Wouldn't disagree with your assessment of the practicality of any of the measures.  Maybe in that case the cruise lines shouldn't even attempt to open up, but open up they will and with measures in place because they will have to be.  The lines had best hope the measures work because one outbreak and they will be done.  My challenges to the poster were made because it seems he believes that such measures are unnecessary and won't be in place.  It is very clear he would be wrong on that front.  Further, it sounds like he would be unwilling to comply.  Personally, I would not spend thousands of dollars to cruise under circumstances that would spoil the experience AND because I've have to worry about so many choosing not to.  

[npcl]

2 hours ago, Coupe said:

Why is that the best study? Who says so? Who's talking about Spain in particular? Who says there will be 10 times the current fatality count? None of these things are provable. 

 

people who are not at risk should stop their social distancing. Get out there.

 

If you want to stay home. Do it. 

Maybe not provable with out doing it.  But I don't think they want to go in that direction.

 

The best study currently out there because

 

1. Relatively large population

2. Statistically valid randomizing process for collecting samples

3. Excellent test mechanism with low false positives or negatives

 

There are US studies out there, but smaller studies, worse test quality, less structured studies.

 

There are people who have lower risk, but no one is at no risk.

 

Yep go out do your best to infect others.  You too can accidentally kill someone today.

 

 

 

 

[npcl]

1 hour ago, harkinmr said:

Two things:

 

1.  Do you honestly believe that there will be no social distancing or other mitigation measures on cruise ships to reopen?  Do you also believe that if YOU "get out there" and cruise that you will have the option to not abide by those measures?  Good luck with that!

 

2.  There are lots of us willing to venture out with mitigation measures in place and it's because of the attitudes and lack of respect/concern of people like you that we will remain reluctant to do so.  Especially on a cruise! 

Yep some people just do not realize that those that just want to ignore the risk to themselves or others may make the recovery worse, because their behavior will make others that are trying to social distance and protect others to go out and spend even less.

 

Everybody following the guidelines, social distancing, wearing masks to reduce transfer area, business access control and you see things flow fairly smoothly.  Have people ignoring the rules and those customers that are cooperating vanish.  

 

 

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, harkinmr said:

Wouldn't disagree with your assessment of the practicality of any of the measures.  Maybe in that case the cruise lines shouldn't even attempt to open up, but open up they will and with measures in place because they will have to be.  The lines had best hope the measures work because one outbreak and they will be done.  My challenges to the poster were made because it seems he believes that such measures are unnecessary and won't be in place.  It is very clear he would be wrong on that front.  Further, it sounds like he would be unwilling to comply.  Personally, I would not spend thousands of dollars to cruise under circumstances that would spoil the experience AND because I've have to worry about so many choosing not to.  

You and are in complete agreement :).  But I would add that it is just not statistically reasonable NOT to expect one or more cases on cruises...and one would expect that to happen sooner rather then later.  The cruise lines are caught in a true Catch-22.  If they delay resuming operations they will not survive (financially).  And if they start operations too soon they will likely not survive (financially).  

 

Hank

[npcl]

2 hours ago, Hlitner said:

You and are in complete agreement :).  But I would add that it is just not statistically reasonable NOT to expect one or more cases on cruises...and one would expect that to happen sooner rather then later.  The cruise lines are caught in a true Catch-22.  If they delay resuming operations they will not survive (financially).  And if they start operations too soon they will likely not survive (financially).  

 

Hank

That is the problem.  All one needs to do is look at the impact on cruise ships when there were relatively few cases. 1 person on the Diamond.  Back when the the Diamond went into Quarantine there were less than 1000 known cases outside of mainland China.   Far less than that when the ship started that cruise.  Today you have over 1.1 million actively known cases in the US.  I would take the odds as being better that a cruise ship of 1500 passengers are more likely to have a case on board than not.  

 

Testing has very high false negative rates (the timing of the sample is critical) with documented cases of people showing symptoms (even serious symptoms) getting multiple negative tests, with different test types. One very serious documented case tested negative 4 times, using 3 different test types, and only tested positive with a sample (taken while the patient was sedated) from deep in the lung itself.

 

Temperature checks are also pretty useless.

 

I expect that the cruise lines will start up with short cruises, figuring that if anyone is sick they, and the rest of the passengers from that cruise will be off of the ship before anyone develops symptoms following their past patterns that as long as they can get people off of the ship its not their problem.

 

 

 

[npcl]

I don't think that the cruise lines are winning friends in the Caribbean.  The very ports they will need to open

 

https://www.nowgrenada.com/2020/05/grenada-did-not-refuse-entry-of-cruise-line-workers/

 

To provide further clarity on the mandatory quarantine for returning crew members, government is now single-handedly bearing the cost of almost $200,000 to provide these facilities because the cruise lines have not accepted responsibility, despite earlier agreement to do so.”

Edited May 20, 2020 by npcl

[getting older slowly]

One thing which i think is the biggest problem... is people themselves.... some will follow the guide lines and other do not..... have seen it as the shops are starting to open.... you would not even know we have a pandemic...... 

 

And really one can not stay in bubble forever.... social distancing helps.....

but since the beginning.... we still do not know enough about covid-19     particularly,,   

the asymptomatic 

testing not always correct

not everybody has a temperature who has it. 

and the list goes on....

 

So social distancing will become the norm...???

 

It is difficult to see how this will pan out .... as we go where no man has been before.....

 

Cheers Don

[npcl]

14 minutes ago, getting older slowly said:

One thing which i think is the biggest problem... is people themselves.... some will follow the guide lines and other do not..... have seen it as the shops are starting to open.... you would not even know we have a pandemic...... 

 

And really one can not stay in bubble forever.... social distancing helps.....

but since the beginning.... we still do not know enough about covid-19     particularly,,   

the asymptomatic 

testing not always correct

not everybody has a temperature who has it. 

and the list goes on....

 

So social distancing will become the norm...???

 

It is difficult to see how this will pan out .... as we go where no man has been before.....

 

Cheers Don

It will pan out when we have an effective therapeutic or an effective vaccine.

 

Research on both is going quickly.

 

Sometime in 2021 likely for both.  

[Coupe]

People work on cruise ships. It is part of the economy. The 90,000 is most likely inflated. Most of those people would have died anyway. People die every year.. It is a part of life. 

 

 

[HappyInVan]

There's a fantasy playing out in the states that covid will disappear 'like magic'. Things will be fantastic and life will go back to normal.

 

Covid19 is a wake up call. Mass tourism has exposed the world (rich and poor) to pandemic. I'm surprised that the last big one was as far back as...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_H1N1/09_virus

 

We need to learn and adapt to covid. The next big one could be a world killer.

 

"Face masks, blood tests and onboard janitors. Flying’s about to feel very different...

 

“The era of affordable travel will come to an end,” IATA’s director general and CEO Alexandre de Juniac said last week."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/18/when-is-it-safe-to-fly-and-what-will-flying-be-like-after-coronavirus.html

 

 

In the meantime, enjoy domestic tourism once your epidemic is under control.

[caribill]

1 hour ago, Coupe said:

People work on cruise ships. It is part of the economy. The 90,000 is most likely inflated. Most of those people would have died anyway. People die every year.. It is a part of life. 

 

 

However (and not included in the 90,000+ count) is the fact that overall deaths not attributed to Covid-19 are higher than normal. So it is likely that the 90,000+ is lower than reality.

[HappyInVan]

1 hour ago, Coupe said:

The 90,000 is most likely inflated. Most of those people would have died anyway. People die every year.. It is a part of life. 

 

 

 

Wrong. So many studies show that the excess deaths exceed the official count of covid fatalities. The real cost of covid is much higher.

 

I'll go out on a limb and make a rash prediction. The official covid death toll in the USA will exceed 130k. That's because the serious ill may linger for weeks. Even if the infections were to miraculous disappear tomorrow, Americans will still be dying in numbers for another 3 weeks.

 

On the other hand, in the province of BC (pop 5m), we are opening up slowly. After only 2 months. Currently, we have 46 patients in hospital, of which only 12 are in intensive care. Only 146 residents have died. The dying stops if we can stop the disease from being imported.

 

https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2020HLTH0026-000909

 

 

The same for Slovakia, Norway, Oz and NZ. Not to mention the islands in the Pacific and Caribbean.

 

Choose your travel itinerary carefully. It's not just about protecting loved ones. It's also about protecting strangers from the consequences of your actions. Its a moral choice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 20, 2020 by HappyInVan

[HappyInVan]

Guys,

 

The fellow from Ohio is just expressing his opinion. As it has no basis in facts, it is just his opinion!

 

Back on topic.

 

I am concerned about the ability of Princess to reset their operations in the Americas. As you may know, Americas now has the biggest number of reported infections, surpassed Europe last week. Plus, two of the top three countries (USA, Russia, Brazil) are in the Americas. 

 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

 

Any thoughts about whether it is possible to run cruises without stopping at the two most populous countries in the hemisphere? Three if you include Mexico.

[leck57]

The Australian Border Force has just announced a ban on cruise ships until 17 September, so nothing down here for a while. Considering Australia and NZ have the virus controlled better than most, if that is a guide, I wouldn't be confident of cruising anytime soon.

[voljeep]

saw this morning Alaska going straight to phase 3 and 4 for re-opening … wonder if Princess and others are now re-thinking the whole cruise season … but still got that pesky Canada thingy ...

[HappyInVan]

14 hours ago, npcl said:

Keep in mind that several of the countries in Europe without populist leaders such as France, Spain, Italy had similar infection rates

 

True. They've fumbled the opening play, but managed to reach the finish line. They have the first wave under control, while USA, Russia, UK and Brazil are still in the growth phase.

 

In Brazil, its the familiar playbook.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/15/coronavirus-brazils-health-minister-resigns-after-just-weeks-in-the-job.html

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ventilators-missing-government-in-chaos-as-brazil-battles-virus-1.1438384

 

I really pity the management at Princess etc. How do you plan in the face of this reality?

 

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by HappyInVan

[dog]

3 hours ago, voljeep said:

saw this morning Alaska going straight to phase 3 and 4 for re-opening … wonder if Princess and others are now re-thinking the whole cruise season … but still got that pesky Canada thingy ...

and this pesky Canadian wants to keep it safe. Our borders will stay closed until our government decides it is safe. 

[HappyInVan]

What happened to the discussion on Sweden and their strategy?

 

THANKS to ncpl. Very Interesting.

 

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-fran-pagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/

 

“Google records suggest trips to shops and cafes by residents of the Stockholm area are down 20%-40%, while passenger numbers on public transport have fallen by 30%-40%...

 

The European commission has said it expects Sweden’s gross domestic product to contract by more than 6% this year, on a par with much of the continent, while the country’s central bank has estimated an even sharper fall of 7%-10%, with unemployment forecast to rise to as much as 10.4%.”

 

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/just-7-3-stockholm-had-135303599.html

 

The people of Stockholm are well educated and smart. Like the Americans who listened to DR. Faucci, they've socially distanced themselves. In fact, the Swedish health authorities told the public to follow mitigation guidelines.

 

As expected, Stockholm was nowhere close to herd immunity. The death toll was too low.

 

Today, Sweden is still nowhere close, based on the 120% increase in official cases from April 16 to May 20 in Stockholm county.

 

Not good for cruising and tourism to Sweden.

 

[victory2020]

Interesting, was my post and all related to it deleted?

[HappyInVan]

4 hours ago, victory2020 said:

Interesting, was my post and all related to it deleted?

 

 

Yes, sorry. Partly my fault. My revelation about the mistakes made by the CDC and the states in reporting tests, had too much vitriol. Everyone has made mistakes. I apologize to our American friends for my 'enthusiasm'.

Edited May 24, 2020 by HappyInVan

[AF-1]

Princess and other cruise companies will start cruising again when they feel it is safe for both passengers and crew.  They and their doctors are working thru things to make things safe.  We shall wait and see how things go.  All the best

[PrincessLuver]

On 5/22/2020 at 5:27 AM, voljeep said:

saw this morning Alaska going straight to phase 3 and 4 for re-opening … wonder if Princess and others are now re-thinking the whole cruise season … but still got that pesky Canada thingy ...

 

And not to mention that pesky COVID-19 thingy..... 

[Coral]

On 5/22/2020 at 7:27 AM, voljeep said:

saw this morning Alaska going straight to phase 3 and 4 for re-opening … wonder if Princess and others are now re-thinking the whole cruise season … but still got that pesky Canada thingy ...

No. Not at all. They have so many seasonal employees that they could not quickly move up to Alaska. I am sure many have secured other jobs. That is what they determined when they cancelled all the one ways. It was too much work to open up the lodges and land services for only part of a season. Plus Canada.

Edited May 24, 2020 by Coral