If 'Social Distancing' last till 2021 will we still have a Cruise Industry.

[seaman11]

16 minutes ago, skridge said:

Who lied about what.  94,661 deaths in 3 months is not serious?  

What?  Reread please.  I said at the beginning of all this.  

[drerickson77]

28 minutes ago, skridge said:

Who lied about what.  94,661 deaths in 3 months is not serious?  

 

Using 328 Million as a rough estimate of the United States population...doing the math here...carry the one......it is....  0.0002886006 Percent and what an estimated 98-99% survival rate for those infected? 

[baseballmom2007]

Now that most locations post Nursing Home deaths, check those when you make decisions. In my county, 67% of deaths have been in nursing homes.  My 80 year old insulin dependent Mom will never cruise again.  I have already booked my 2021 cruise and pray the cruise lines make it through.

 

As to masks - a private conversation with THE expert in this field yielded this advice: an important reason to wear a mask is to provide a barrier between your hands and your face, which will help keep you safe. Wearing a mask has made me conscious of how often I touch my face and hopefully, I will learn better habits for when we can cruise again (hopefully without masks).

[skridge]

18 minutes ago, drerickson77 said:

 

Using 328 Million as a rough estimate of the United States population...doing the math here...carry the one......it is....  0.0002886006 Percent and what an estimated 98-99% survival rate for those infected? 

SO you are saying 30k more than US military killed in Vietnam is a nothing to see here situation.  Alright.  I don't look at it that way.

[ProgRockCruiser]

52 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

The charts in the link you posted do not support what you are saying.  Look at the charts 

@jimbo5544, I looked at the charts for Texas.  Death count reported May 21 is 63, the highest since starting.  The total new cases reported the same day were 1856, second only to the number reported on May 15, 2012.

 

Not sure what you looked at.  Maybe hit refresh if you have old data cached?

[drerickson77]

13 minutes ago, skridge said:

SO you are saying 30k more than US military killed in Vietnam is a nothing to see here situation.  Alright.  I don't look at it that way.

Did we completely shut down and destroy our economy over that? No. A better metaphor would have been the Hong Kong Flu of 68/69.

 

And my father died from cancer related to Agent Orange that he got while serving in Vietnam.

[skridge]

1 minute ago, drerickson77 said:

Did we completely shut down and destroy our economy over that? No. A better metaphor would have been the Hong Kong Flu of 68/69.

 

And my father died from cancer related to Agent Orange that he got while serving in Vietnam.

I am not comparing the events, I am just using the number as a comparison.  I don't think anyone sees over 90k deaths as ho hum but maybe you do.

[drerickson77]

2 minutes ago, skridge said:

I am not comparing the events, I am just using the number as a comparison.  I don't think anyone sees over 90k deaths as ho hum but maybe you do.

 

And maybe you agree with the SHUT IT ALL DOWN NOW! mentality.

 

Ho hum.

 

[ProgRockCruiser]

16 hours ago, skridge said:

My wife works for a hospital in NC and hospitalization has steadily increases and is still increasing.

 

12 hours ago, Host Carolyn said:

 

But testing is up a lot too. At the daily press briefing they stress how many more tests are being done.....and then there's the Tyson plant with 555 cases

 

Hospitalizations are probably the most accurate useful data, though even that will be tainted.  Regardless of how much you test, and how many positives vs negatives you find, the folks that get really sick will generally end up in a hospital.  If more people are getting hospitalized per day, than that indicates (to me) that the true rate of infections is increasing.  If we never actually "tested" out in public, but only looked at cases as assessed in a hospital, that would give a truer trend line direction, IMHO.  Not total number of cases, but a trend.  Which assumes the relative rates of asymptomatic or non-hospitalized but symptomatic cases also stay the same.

 

Ideally we'd test the entire population over a single day, over and over, to see how the infection is spreading, and at what rate.  By simply increasing the number of tests available, and testing new candidates every time, I'm not sure what we are measuring.  It's like turning up the radio as a song naturally fades, so it actually sounds louder - the base signal isn't increasing, just your awareness of it.

 

So if hospitalizations start to decrease, I will feel more assured that the actual rate of infection is decreasing.

[lucymorgan]

2 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

I believe that most of the ships that have disembarked crew down to minimum staffing are not the ones in Manila Bay, but are in other areas away from the crew's home countries.  Of course, when the crew are finally allowed to disembark in the Philippines, the ships will likely stay there, so that when cruising restarts they can be used to  bring crew back to other ships and back to traditional cruising areas.

 

Fuel in the far east is currently so much more expensive than in the US, so that isn't a consideration.  Given the stories of hardships in the Philippines with food supply chain issues, I don't see countries like these being able to provide supplies to large numbers of ships that are out of the ordinary trading routes.

Thanks for the info

[jimbo5544]

29 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

@jimbo5544, I looked at the charts for Texas.  Death count reported May 21 is 63, the highest since starting.  The total new cases reported the same day were 1856, second only to the number reported on May 15, 2012.

 

Not sure what you looked at.  Maybe hit refresh if you have old data cached?

There was a one day spike earlier, but here is what I am looking at

 

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/

[jimbo5544]

20 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

 

 

Hospitalizations are probably the most accurate useful data, though even that will be tainted.  Regardless of how much you test, and how many positives vs negatives you find, the folks that get really sick will generally end up in a hospital.  If more people are getting hospitalized per day, than that indicates (to me) that the true rate of infections is increasing.  If we never actually "tested" out in public, but only looked at cases as assessed in a hospital, that would give a truer trend line direction, IMHO.  Not total number of cases, but a trend.  Which assumes the relative rates of asymptomatic or non-hospitalized but symptomatic cases also stay the same.

 

Ideally we'd test the entire population over a single day, over and over, to see how the infection is spreading, and at what rate.  By simply increasing the number of tests available, and testing new candidates every time, I'm not sure what we are measuring.  It's like turning up the radio as a song naturally fades, so it actually sounds louder - the base signal isn't increasing, just your awareness of it.

 

So if hospitalizations start to decrease, I will feel more assured that the actual rate of infection is decreasing.

I just do not get test everybody every day mentality.  It is a pipe dream that is untenable to enact.  Open testing has shown us very little.  In regards to hospitalizations, that makes sense, but you also have to look at the data, where are the hospitalizations coming from, is it nursing homes, assisted living, retirement homes or in NC case meat packing plants (Tyson).  While it is true they are real numbers with real people, they tell a much different story of how and why the virus is flourishing and make no argument for fear and angst in general society of the area.

[ProgRockCruiser]

51 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

There was a one day spike earlier, but here is what I am looking at

 

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/

Interesting,that is different-looking data from the other link provided, at:

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/

 

44 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

I just do not get test everybody every day mentality.  It is a pipe dream that is untenable to enact.  Open testing has shown us very little.  In regards to hospitalizations, that makes sense, but you also have to look at the data, where are the hospitalizations coming from, is it nursing homes, assisted living, retirement homes or in NC case meat packing plants (Tyson).  While it is true they are real numbers with real people, they tell a much different story of how and why the virus is flourishing and make no argument for fear and angst in general society of the area.

I concur.

 

I understand the desire to test to see how relatively prevalent the virus is amongst the population, but I agree that the raw data, unto itself, does little to show overall underlying growth trends.  Imagine, if you will, a somewhat ridiculous scenario I admit, that half the population was infected from day 1, and that remained so throughout the "measurement" period - i.e. no new cases after that first day.  As the number of tests increase, the total number of positive cases increases, which might look like the virus is spreading rapidly.  But really, all it shows is that you have done more testing.  And imagine that after some period of time, everyone with the virus gets better, all on the same day.  Now the tests show zero new cases.  But that isn't a measurement of when the virus stopped spreading.

 

The virus and infections aren't anything like that scenario, but it does show how the measurement technique itself smears the validity of the data and any trends you may generate from it.

 

[jimbo5544]

7 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

Interesting,that is different-looking data from the other link provided, at:

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/

 

I concur.

 

I understand the desire to test to see how relatively prevalent the virus is amongst the population, but I agree that the raw data, unto itself, does little to show overall underlying growth trends.  Imagine, if you will, a somewhat ridiculous scenario I admit, that half the population was infected from day 1, and that remained so throughout the "measurement" period - i.e. no new cases after that first day.  As the number of tests increase, the total number of positive cases increases, which might look like the virus is spreading rapidly.  But really, all it shows is that you have done more testing.  And imagine that after some period of time, everyone with the virus gets better, all on the same day.  Now the tests show zero new cases.  But that isn't a measurement of when the virus stopped spreading.

 

The virus and infections aren't anything like that scenario, but it does show how the measurement technique itself smears the validity of the data and any trends you may generate from it.

 

I am no scientist, and this is my home state, but I really think Desantis has the best approach I have seen. Develop portable testing facilities and have enough tests available to attack flare ups early.  I see other states hiring thousands of contact tracers which, if it were not so morbid, seem like it would only help determine how they died, not prevent them from dying.  We all are really in this together, hopefully treatment and vaccine will be here much sooner rather than later.

Edited May 22, 2020 by jimbo5544

[Host Carolyn]

This has gone so far off topic, again debating stats from different sources. As we all know you can get a different set of stats pretty much site for site depending on what you want to hear. The status of states with homeports will affect cruise departures but arguing and debating statistics is not Carnival related. 

 

So if we can stay on topic re how social distancing on a cruise will affect cruising on Carnival, will leave for those who have an expressed an interest in discussing that topic.  

[MsTabbyKats]

1 minute ago, bingomamma19 said:

Not sure what you are looking at....they are all there and available.   I just looked.    

Look at the "Health and Sailings" update on the home page.

[Petoonya]

3 hours ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

 

 

Hospitalizations are probably the most accurate useful data, though even that will be tainted.  Regardless of how much you test, and how many positives vs negatives you find, the folks that get really sick will generally end up in a hospital.  If more people are getting hospitalized per day, than that indicates (to me) that the true rate of infections is increasing.  If we never actually "tested" out in public, but only looked at cases as assessed in a hospital, that would give a truer trend line direction, IMHO.  Not total number of cases, but a trend.  Which assumes the relative rates of asymptomatic or non-hospitalized but symptomatic cases also stay the same.

 

Ideally we'd test the entire population over a single day, over and over, to see how the infection is spreading, and at what rate.  By simply increasing the number of tests available, and testing new candidates every time, I'm not sure what we are measuring.  It's like turning up the radio as a song naturally fades, so it actually sounds louder - the base signal isn't increasing, just your awareness of it.

 

So if hospitalizations start to decrease, I will feel more assured that the actual rate of infection is decreasing.

Wonderful and insightful post. Thank you.

[bingomamma19]

16 minutes ago, MsTabbyKats said:

Look at the "Health and Sailings" update on the home page.

actually...read the whole thing...

 

• All San Francisco sailings through 2020
• All Carnival Sunrise sailings through and including October 19, 2020
• All Carnival Legend sailings through and including October 30, 2020
• All Carnival Radiance sailings through and including November 1, 2020
• All Carnival Spirit Alaska, Hawaii, & Trans-Pacific sailings through and including October 6, 2020
• Carnival Breeze, Carnival Dream, Carnival Elation, Carnival Freedom, Carnival Horizon, Carnival Magic, Carnival Sensation, & Carnival Vista sailings through and including July 31, 2020
• Carnival Splendor sailings through and including September 17, 2020
• All Other Ships sailings through and including August 31, 2020

Third bullet from the botton says 

Carnival Breeze, Carnival Dream, Carnival Elation, Carnival Freedom, Carnival Horizon, Carnival Magic, Carnival Sensation, & Carnival Vista sailings through and including July 31, 2020

 

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by bingomamma19

[bitemyfly]

I live in Florida and the day it went up

they dumped 50 k additional test. Our positive rate of infection is below 2.2 % are deaths Ratio are way down .. 

[ProgRockCruiser]

59 minutes ago, Petoonya said:

Wonderful and insightful post. Thank you.

Well, thank you!

 

I'm just trying to point out that the statistics being reported, even if accurate and timely, may not represent anything useful at all regarding trends.  A year from now maybe we'll see a clearer picture of what really went down.

[bingomamma19]

39 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

I live in Florida and cases are not consistently trending down. In fact the numbers have significantly increased recently. While some of this can be attributed to the state reopening over the last few week, it does not negate the fact that this virus continues to spread, which is why I do not believe any cruises will depart from Florida ports until very late this year at the earliest.  

Raw numbers will continue to rise as testing increases... percentages of positives is what is important.   I believe the last i checked that percentage was lower than most states.

Edited May 22, 2020 by bingomamma19

[PhillyFan33579]

4 minutes ago, bingomamma19 said:

Raw numbers will continue to rise as testing increases... percentages of positives is what is important.   I believe the last i checked that percentage was lower than most states.

That is a good point. It would be nice if they had the capability to test significantly more people. I think it would be a big plus if a lot more people tested positive, who had little to no symptoms. That would reduce the fatality rate even lower, which would be a good sign that maybe this virus isn’t as fatal as a lot of scientists say it is. 

[Petoonya]

39 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

 A year from now maybe we'll see a clearer picture of what really went down.

Agree 100%. There is still so much to be learned. And it's a time to be exceptionally cautious. We're all gonna die but no reason to do so expeditiously or so uncomfortably as with COVID.

[rabidstoat]

I live in Georgia and our cases and deaths are going down but slowly and erratically. 

 

But since I live in Georgia, I also monitor the Currently Hospitalized numbers that one of our government agencies release. Those have been dramatically dropping, they were up at 1500 three weeks ago and now they're below 900. 

Incidentally, Universal Studios is opening in Florida on June 5th. I'm sure Disney will open sometime next month, too. They'll be doing reduced capacity at first, I'm sure, but if it goes well then things should look good for cruises, I'd think.

Edited May 22, 2020 by rabidstoat

[ray98]

Numbers will go up because we keep testing people.  Some states are even lumping antibody tests into the numbers which is really skewing things.