Is Celebrity Giving Us A "Restart" Hint?

[zitsky]

25 minutes ago, timf2001 said:

It sounds like they wised up to people who were booking cheap rates for this year just to L&S to next year.  Plus, assuming capacity is limited to less than 100%, there's no incentive to offer cut rates for last minute bookings.  Anyone eager enough to cruise this year will have to do so at full price.

 

L&S???

[Roxydog15]

L&S i believe means "Lift and Switch"

[jg51]

We believe that the actual reason (or an additional reason) for the price explosion is the sudden (Monday afternoon) offer of "free" Classic Beverage packages for booking many late 2020 cruises.  What happened was terribly dishonest on the part of "X," because they jacked up the fares to cover the cost of the packages -- but then claimed that the packages were free!   We watched this playing out "in real time," and it was truly disgusting.  By just minutes, we got "burned," unable to book at very low rates before the huge price increase took effect. 

 

We abandoned plans to travel because of this.  Maybe it will be to our benefit in the long run.  Maybe the cruise that we wanted to book will be canceled -- or it will take place and inflict misery on guests and crew (due to illness or serious inconveniences).  We are putting it out of our minds and moving on, hoping for better things in 2021 or 2022 ... but we are sorely tempted to abandon "X," because of the chicanery.

 

[Here is an afterthought, being posted a few minutes later ...]

 

Another reason for the massive increase may be that "X" made a decision, over the weekend, to reduce guest capacity significantly -- and to fill most available staterooms with crew members (living privately instead of sharing).  We suspect that they did the arithmetic and determined that they could avoid taking a big loss if they were to greatly increase the fares for the remaining staterooms.

Edited June 11, 2020 by jg51
(Afterthought)

[wrk2cruise]

10 minutes ago, jg51 said:

"free" Classic Beverage packages for booking many late 2020 cruises.  What happened was terribly dishonest on the part of "X," because they jacked up the fares to cover the cost of the packages -- but then claimed that the packages were free!

 

They have never been free.  Always built into the cruise price.   It is not uncommon for the prices to move substantially before and after promos run their course.

[Hawkstar33]

Multiple islands are opening up now or before july1st.  Aug 1st sailings are  possible in the Caribbean.  51 days alot can happen.   We are booked on 8/23, equinox,  with 3 cruises scheduled  before we go......More worried about a 3 hr confined plane ride with the mask on.   Less people on the ship wouldn't be a bad thing....Logistically, they should be able to safely staff the ships that will sail this year, as not every ship will be out there...Easier to get bar service....Wearing a mask when needed

[Roxydog15]

Yes, a lot can happen in the next few months making this all so hard to get a handle on.  Will be interesting to read reports/reviews of cruises as they start up. 

[K.T.B.]

10 hours ago, Hawkstar33 said:

Multiple islands are opening up now or before july1st.  Aug 1st sailings are  possible in the Caribbean.  51 days alot can happen.   We are booked on 8/23, equinox,  with 3 cruises scheduled  before we go......More worried about a 3 hr confined plane ride with the mask on.   Less people on the ship wouldn't be a bad thing....Logistically, they should be able to safely staff the ships that will sail this year, as not every ship will be out there...Easier to get bar service....Wearing a mask when needed

 

I have a friend who lives in Cozumel and the island is open and ready to accept tourists and cruise ships right now.  I know Cayman is closed until September 1st.

 

As for flying, airlines are supposed to be preventing center seats to be sold.  I know when I was booking a flight for December none of the center seats were available.  6 feet apart is impossible on a plane, but they're having passengers remain as far as part as possible.  And there's nothing to worry about with the air circulation system, as the virus cannot be transmitted that way (per the CDC and WHO).

[york survey]

10 hours ago, jg51 said:

 

 

Another reason for the massive increase may be that "X" made a decision, over the weekend, to reduce guest capacity significantly -- and to fill most available staterooms with crew members (living privately instead of sharing).  We suspect that they did the arithmetic and determined that they could avoid taking a big loss if they were to greatly increase the fares for the remaining staterooms.

 

That's where I have my money and it does imply that things are start to take shape

[TeeRick]

15 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

The part I don't understand (or maybe I do but just don't like the answer) is why they are selling cabins on cruises that even if they sail, will no doubt need to sail at less than full capacity.  The higher they get the capacity with bookings, the more p'd off people booking those will be when some of them get kicked off a ship that IS sailing.   Makes me wonder even more if their passenger reduction strategy for reduced capacity will be centered around who paid more rather than who booked earliest.😒

My take on your question.  This is completely unresolved at this point.  You definitely understand the situation.  We don't know anything about what ships and itineraries will be first and after that the "what, where and when" questions to follow.  Reduced sailings and capacity on fewer ships has been the consistent manta coming from all cruise line executives. A lot of people with bookings and money on the line will be disappointed when the answers to these questions start to become available. A second and perhaps even third round of Lift & Shift will definitely be a reality I think.  

[jojo1966]

interesting that a few days ago there were absolutely loads of internal, external and balcony cabins available for our november 2020 cruise to japan - but on checking today the only categories available are suites at over £7,000 pp !!! Wonder if they are considering sailing with just those that have already booked other cabins....hmmm....fingers crossed !!

[FlorenceItaly]

7 minutes ago, jojo1966 said:

interesting that a few days ago there were absolutely loads of internal, external and balcony cabins available for our november 2020 cruise to japan - but on checking today the only categories available are suites at over £7,000 pp !!! Wonder if they are considering sailing with just those that have already booked other cabins....hmmm....fingers crossed !!

My observation is when this happens they are getting ready to cancel the sailing.

Edited June 11, 2020 by FlorenceItaly

[jojo1966]

Just now, FlorenceItaly said:

My observation is when this happens they are getting ready to cancel the sailing.

 

oh no....dont say that 😪😪

[Fouremco]

16 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

The part I don't understand (or maybe I do but just don't like the answer) is why they are selling cabins on cruises that even if they sail, will no doubt need to sail at less than full capacity.  The higher they get the capacity with bookings, the more p'd off people booking those will be when some of them get kicked off a ship that IS sailing.   Makes me wonder even more if their passenger reduction strategy for reduced capacity will be centered around who paid more rather than who booked earliest.😒

My inner cynic says that Celebrity will only reduce capacity to the (as yet unknown) percentage dictated by the CDC for cruises out of the US when they are forced to. So until a lower number is established, they'll go with 100%, pocket the money, and then refund when they have to make cuts. And unless the CDC dictates that the reductions should be equal across all passenger accommodation decks, the lowest paying passengers will be sacrificed. Like you, I just don't see booking dates coming into play, with the possible exception of them being used as a tie breaker between equal cost bookings. 

[upwarduk]

1 hour ago, K.T.B. said:

And there's nothing to worry about with the air circulation system, as the virus cannot be transmitted that way (per the CDC and WHO).

Well if you believe that you will believe anything. 

If I have ever been sick, it’s 3-4 days after we have returned from a cruise, via a flight, Never if we have driven to the port, which we mainly do now.

I am convinced that this is how Covid-19 swept through ships - via the air conditioning system.

[mayleeman]

13 hours ago, Roxydog15 said:

Yes, probably, my TA said that booking, cancelling, and then rebooking to take advantage of some feature like cancellability is technically illegal (at least in the US). According to her, i have not personally verified. 

 

Where in any provision of US law does it make booking with the intent to reschedule illegal? The did not cover this in my first year Contracts class. Then again, it was 42 years ago... Please make her back up that assertion.

Edited June 11, 2020 by mayleeman

[ECCruise]

1 hour ago, K.T.B. said:

As for flying, airlines are supposed to be preventing center seats to be sold.  I know when I was booking a flight for December none of the center seats were available.  6 feet apart is impossible on a plane, but they're having passengers remain as far as part as possible.  And there's nothing to worry about with the air circulation system, as the virus cannot be transmitted that way (per the CDC and WHO).

Yeah, they don't sell the center seats until they need them.  Then they sell them post-haste. 

And where did you get the cuckoo the "virus can't be transmitted that way" air circulation system?

Is this satire?

[mayleeman]

1 minute ago, ECCruise said:

where did you get the cuckoo the "virus can't be transmitted that way" air circulation system?

 

This was probably a reference to the high-efficiency filtration systems on airlines that supposedly filter out all bacteria and air-born virus droplets. Some have said it is medical grade.

 

There was much discussion of this in the threads about whether the circulation system on ships allowed cabin to cabin transmission. 

 

I would want confirmation before I joined an even semi-packed plane!

[Fouremco]

From the WHO travel advice article (https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/air-travel-advice)

 

Research has shown that there is little risk of any communicable disease being transmitted on board an aircraft.

The quality of aircraft cabin air is carefully controlled. Ventilation provides a total change of air 20–30 times per hour. Most modern aircraft have recirculation systems, which recycle up to 50% of cabin air. The recirculated air is usually passed through high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters of the type used in hospital operating theatres and intensive care units, which trap dust particles, bacteria, fungi and viruses.

Transmission of infection may occur between passengers who are seated in the same area of an aircraft, usually as a result of the infected individual coughing or sneezing or by touch (direct contact or surfaces that other passengers touch). This is no different from any other situation in which people are close to each other, such as on a train or bus or in a theatre. Highly contagious conditions, such as influenza, are more likely to be spread to other passengers in situations where the aircraft ventilation system is not operating.

To minimize the risk of passing on infections, travellers who are unwell, particularly if they have a fever, should delay their journey until they have recovered. Individuals with a known active communicable disease should not travel by air. Airlines may deny boarding to passengers who appear to be infected with a communicable disease.

 

From the CDC travel advice article (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/yellowbook/2020/travel-by-air-land-sea/air-travel):

 

VENTILATION AND AIR QUALITY

All commercial jet aircraft built after the late 1980s, and a few modified older aircraft, recirculate 10%–50% of the air in the cabin, mixed with outside air. The recirculated air passes through a series of filters 20–30 times per hour. In most newer-model airplanes, the recycled air passes through high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters, which capture 99.9% of particles (bacteria, fungi, and larger viruses or virus clumps) 0.1–0.3 µm in diameter. Furthermore, air generally circulates in defined areas within the aircraft, thus limiting the radius of distribution of pathogens spread by small-particle aerosols. As a result, the cabin air environment is not conducive to the spread of most infectious diseases.

Some diseases may be spread by contact with infected secretions, such as when an ill person sneezes or coughs (and the secretions or droplets land on another person’s face, mouth, nose, or eyes), or touches a communal surface (such as a door knob or rest room faucet) with contaminated hands. Other people handling those contaminated surfaces may then be inoculated with the contaminant. Practicing good handwashing and respiratory hygiene (covering mouth when coughing or sneezing) decreases the risk of disease spread by direct or indirect contact.

 

[ECCruise]

15 minutes ago, mayleeman said:

 

This was probably a reference to the high-efficiency filtration systems on airlines that supposedly filter out all bacteria and air-born virus droplets. Some have said it is medical grade.

 

There was much discussion of this in the threads about whether the circulation system on ships allowed cabin to cabin transmission. 

 

I would want confirmation before I joined an even semi-packed plane!

I will admit that I was guilty of assuming the ventilation was regarding ships. My boneheaded mistake. 

I am fairly confident about flying unless it is wall to wall which you unfortunately don't know til flight time. 

It may depend on the ship but I am certain some ships share ventilation. 

Edited June 11, 2020 by ECCruise

[K.T.B.]

29 minutes ago, upwarduk said:

Well if you believe that you will believe anything. 

If I have ever been sick, it’s 3-4 days after we have returned from a cruise, via a flight, Never if we have driven to the port, which we mainly do now.

I am convinced that this is how Covid-19 swept through ships - via the air conditioning system.

Yes, I do tend to believe medical professionals when it comes to disease....  Who do you tend to believe?

 

And it's "nice" to know the people seem to think that medical science is considered "satire".  SMH.

Edited June 11, 2020 by K.T.B.

[TeeRick]

33 minutes ago, upwarduk said:

Well if you believe that you will believe anything. 

If I have ever been sick, it’s 3-4 days after we have returned from a cruise, via a flight, Never if we have driven to the port, which we mainly do now.

I am convinced that this is how Covid-19 swept through ships - via the air conditioning system.

You are convinced.  I am not.

[upwarduk]

8 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

Yes, I do tend to believe medical professionals when it comes to disease....  Who do you tend to believe?

As previously stated, my own experience.

[TeeRick]

50 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

My inner cynic says that Celebrity will only reduce capacity to the (as yet unknown) percentage dictated by the CDC for cruises out of the US when they are forced to. So until a lower number is established, they'll go with 100%, pocket the money, and then refund when they have to make cuts. And unless the CDC dictates that the reductions should be equal across all passenger accommodation decks, the lowest paying passengers will be sacrificed. Like you, I just don't see booking dates coming into play, with the possible exception of them being used as a tie breaker between equal cost bookings. 

Maybe I'm not quite as cynical or my inner cynic is on lock down too.  But I don't really agree that this will be the case.

[ECCruise]

9 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

Yes, I do tend to believe medical professionals when it comes to disease....  Who do you tend to believe?

 

And it's "nice" to know the people seem to think that medical science is considered "satire".  SMH.

I agree.

I apologized in my next post.  My "satire" was because I admit that I wrongly, and boneheadedly, assumed the post concerned shipboard ventilation.

[Fouremco]

27 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Maybe I'm not quite as cynical or my inner cynic is on lock down too.  But I don't really agree that this will be the case.

I hope that you are right, but from a pure business perspective, they would make more money on a given sailing. More importantly, in the long run I think that Celebrity would rather frustrate and possibly loose customers who book insides and keep the customers who book suites. That said, there are many different factors that might be in play, including a passenger's Captains Club status: are you going to boot the Zenith passenger who books multiple cruises a year or the passenger who has booked for the very first time? Depending on when and where the first cruise sails, could nationality be a factor? If travel restrictions prevent Canadian from joining a Caribbean cruise out of Port Everglades, wouldn't it make sense to start the cull there? And so on. Lots of possible ways to achieve the percentage required, most, if not all, will alienate those bumped (depending on compensation offered), so in the end I believe that Celebrity will take a pragmatic approach and go with whatever results in the highest profit.

Edited June 11, 2020 by Fouremco