Its time to move on from 2020

[Milwaukee Eight]

1 hour ago, time4u2go said:

10,000 more new cases in Florida.

I sure wish you hadn’t started this. 
 

 

[boatseller]

23 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I sure wish you hadn’t started this. 

Sure, a few days with ~10,000 positive results (which does not mean infections).

 

Loss rate has increased only slightly and current hospital capacity is not stressed.  Somewhere in one of the long form reports is the available reserve capacity, which remains unused.

 

Remember, New Cases is almost meaningless as it does not directly correlate to the state of the pandemic.  10,000 voluntary positive results can mean 10,001 infections or 75,000 infections.  People here are mostly following the guidance but aren't afraid.   Same people with cruises booked for 2020.

[boatseller]

On 7/6/2020 at 5:16 PM, cured said:

Sigh, I have provided links to research.

Not even going to acknowledge this rubbish with a rebuttal.

 

Peer reviewed articles - read them. If you choose not to read peer reviewed articles, that is on you but scientific ignorance does not make opinions correct. I am not an expert in the cellular level of viruses but I do base anything I believe on the understanding of actual science. I don't pretend to be a Tesla driver who knows more than the engineers who developed it. But if an engineer tells me this is how it is done, I believe them over what I see with Tesla drivers.

 

I am sure everyone will rejoice when I say I am out. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink seems to be the problem here.

The problem with carrying on about science and peer reviewed articles is...my scientist can beat up your scientist:

 

Modelers Were ‘Astronomically Wrong’ in COVID-19 Predictions, Says Leading Epidemiologist

 

This is just one example of people with equally impressive credentials saying similar things.

[cured]

1 hour ago, boatseller said:

The problem with carrying on about science and peer reviewed articles is...my scientist can beat up your scientist:

 

Modelers Were ‘Astronomically Wrong’ in COVID-19 Predictions, Says Leading Epidemiologist

 

This is just one example of people with equally impressive credentials saying similar things.

FEE is not a peer reviewed scientific paper, it is opinion.  It is also an opinion piece on the economic and social impacts of the lockdown, not the science of SARS-CoV-2.

 

They are a right wing publication, rated as far-right on economic and social issues,  and is rated "mixed" for presenting factual information. It is also known for not supporting the consensus of science.

 

If you present a link to his peer reviewed research paper based on factual information with his actual mathematic models, then we can take it seriously.

Edited July 8, 2020 by cured

[Baron Barracuda]

6 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:

NYC is far from back to normal, while they are soon to enter stage 3.  That is 5 months after the start of their Covid hit.  As a guess to when cruises might start, just add at minimum 5 months to today’s date in Florida, Texas and California as the earliest start time for sail from there. Remember while you do that, NYC is still no where ready to board a cruise ship.  
 

 

That's 5 months for NYC (and NJ & CT) to recover despite full lock down, closed schools, mandatory masks, etc.  States unwilling to take similar steps will take longer to recover.  Read today that local hospital in northern NJ has come down from 1200+ covid patients in late March to 4 yesterday.  Credit the lock down or not, still great news.  

Edited July 8, 2020 by Baron Barracuda

[bouhunter]

1 hour ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I sure wish you hadn’t started this. 
 

 

Thanks for posting.

[Dennis#1]

9 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

 

That's 5 months for NYC (and NJ & CT) to recover despite full lock down, closed schools, mandatory masks, etc.  States unwilling to take similar steps will take longer to recover.  Read today that local hospital in northern NJ has come down from 1200+ covid patients in late March to 4 yesterday.  Credit the lock down or not, still great news.  

Yes, great news for NJ.  Sure hope Florida will get down to 4 cases very very soon.

[KG1924]

2 hours ago, boatseller said:

Sure, a few days with ~10,000 positive results (which does not mean infections).

 

Loss rate has increased only slightly and current hospital capacity is not stressed.  Somewhere in one of the long form reports is the available reserve capacity, which remains unused.

 

Remember, New Cases is almost meaningless as it does not directly correlate to the state of the pandemic.  10,000 voluntary positive results can mean 10,001 infections or 75,000 infections.  People here are mostly following the guidance but aren't afraid.   Same people with cruises booked for 2020.

 

Can you clarify what you mean by positive results not meaning infections? I'm sure there are some false positives in there (same as there are false negatives....science is not perfect) but I take a positive test as the person has the virus, whether symptomatic or not, and can spread it to others. 

[HBE4]

1 hour ago, KG1924 said:

I take a positive test as the person has the virus, whether symptomatic or not, and can spread it to others. 

 

It seems people forget that little inconvient fact. There are now 10,000 more people out there spreading the disease. Its a very meaningful number.

 

Not to mention that the asymptomatic person that feels fine today may develop symptoms 2 weeks from now, go into the hospital 4 weeks from now and die 6 weeks from now. So let's not forget about that 4-6 week time lag.

[boatseller]

5 hours ago, cured said:

FEE is not a peer reviewed scientific paper, it is opinion.  It is also an opinion piece on the economic and social impacts of the lockdown, not the science of SARS-CoV-2.

 

They are a right wing publication, rated as far-right on economic and social issues,  and is rated "mixed" for presenting factual information. It is also known for not supporting the consensus of science.

 

If you present a link to his peer reviewed research paper based on factual information with his actual mathematic models, then we can take it seriously.

And the trap is sprung.  It's an interview with Big Wig Medical Professor Type at Stanford University with like a bazillion Awards and Honors.  If I were to play your game, I'd gasp at your rejection of scholarly opinion.  (In case you didn't know, people like him are the 'peer' in peer review. 🙂)

 

If you weren't so fixated on irrelevancies, you'd have a more complete picture of the situation.  Credible analysis like this is why some places, like Florida, are much further along and will be cruising and park hopping* sooner than we think.

 

*Yes, I know, you can park hop at Universal.  We'll be flying the Skyliner soon enough.

[cured]

22 minutes ago, boatseller said:

And the trap is sprung.  It's an interview with Big Wig Medical Professor Type at Stanford University with like a bazillion Awards and Honors.  If I were to play your game, I'd gasp at your rejection of scholarly opinion.  (In case you didn't know, people like him are the 'peer' in peer review. 🙂)

 

If you weren't so fixated on irrelevancies, you'd have a more complete picture of the situation.  Credible analysis like this is why some places, like Florida, are much further along and will be cruising and park hopping* sooner than we think.

 

*Yes, I know, you can park hop at Universal.  We'll be flying the Skyliner soon enough.

What trap? I never said the Dr. was not credible. The rag that the article is written in is not credible. Reading a biased extreme right wing rag that is known for not reporting the truth and does not believe science can't be trusted to report exactly what the good Dr. said without adding their biased spin.  It would be the same if it was an extreme left-wing rag. Both will manipulate the interview so it fits their readership.

 

I would love to see HIS paper with his mathematical models since he is a credible source.

 

I am not rejecting scholarly opinion. I would love to read his actual scholarly opinion.  The FEE is not a scholarly journal that reports facts and science. Link his research paper so we can see his scholarly opinion.

 

If you think Florida is ahead of the game from the rest of the country, you are definitely reading the wrong stuff. My state does not have any ICUs at capacity.  In fact, our three local hospitals do not currently have any covid patients.  And I live in a big city.  Florida is managing, but they are one of the 3 epicenters of the virus and definitely not ahead of the game compared to many other states.

 

Do you believe everything MSNBC or CNN or FOX news says? 

Edited July 8, 2020 by cured

[boatseller]

4 hours ago, KG1924 said:

Can you clarify what you mean by positive results not meaning infections? I'm sure there are some false positives in there (same as there are false negatives....science is not perfect) but I take a positive test as the person has the virus, whether symptomatic or not, and can spread it to others. 

It means that 10,000 positive cases is not an indicator of actual infections or prevalence.  An entire office can be infected one day but if only 1 gets a test, it's just 1 documented case.

 

We only have estimates and models of real prevalence hovering are around 10x confirmed cases.  This is why you will see people asserting figures such as .01% loss rate or lower.  They are using an estimate of the Infection loss rate vs the Case loss rate.

 

This is why the cruise lines will be very coy about 'testing'.  Since compliance would be approaching 100%, it's gives a very biased number.

[justKirbo]

6 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I sure wish you hadn’t started this. 
 

 

Can you tell me what this is supposed to be and where it's from? I'm showing that FL had 49 new deaths today and 63 new deaths yesterday. Thank you.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

[time4u2go]

10 minutes ago, justKirbo said:

Can you tell me what this is supposed to be and where it's from? I'm showing that FL had 49 new deaths today and 63 new deaths yesterday. Thank you.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

You're right. Pretty certain there were more than 7 or 8 deaths in Florida. 

[boatseller]

3 minutes ago, cured said:

I never said the Dr. was not credible. The rag that the article it is written in is not credible. Reading a biased "news" rag that is known for not reporting the truth, you can't trust what they say is really what the good Dr. said.  I would love to see HIS paper with his mathematical models since he is a credible source.

 

I am not rejecting scholarly opinion. I would love to read his actual scholarly opinion.  The FEE is not a scholarly journal that reports facts and science. Link his research paper so we can see his scholarly opinion.

 

Do you believe everything MSNBC or CNN or FOX news says? 

It's ok, you can quit while I'm ahead.  No need to disparage either publisher.

 

Dr. Ioannidis is the source of the scholarly analysis.  I'd never heard of either publisher or reporter before, and it doesn't matter.  I believe him because his predictions and analysis is what we're actually seeing.  So, two points.

 

Just click through to the full interview.  It's all there.  Maybe you'll understand why a heck of a lot of people aren't afraid of C19 and are ready to start cruising...like tomorrow.

[HaveWeMetYet]

Here is a graph of daily deaths in Florida.

Obviously a lot weekend deaths are pushed off onto Mondays.

 

[cured]

13 minutes ago, boatseller said:

It's ok, you can quit while I'm ahead.  No need to disparage either publisher.

 

Dr. Ioannidis is the source of the scholarly analysis.  I'd never heard of either publisher or reporter before, and it doesn't matter.  I believe him because his predictions and analysis is what we're actually seeing.  So, two points.

 

Just click through to the full interview.  It's all there.  Maybe you'll understand why a heck of a lot of people aren't afraid of C19 and are ready to start cruising...like tomorrow.

Whatever you say.  Stay healthy and don't find yourself in an ICU. Death is not the worst thing Covid-19 can do. Oxygen for life, double lung transplants, permanent heart, kidney, and/or liver damage, limb amputations due to clots are some of the more common side effects.

 

It doesn't matter how many people are ready to cruise, no one is cruising from the US till the CDC says they are cruising and there are ports in countries that will actually allow US citizens to enter.

Edited July 9, 2020 by cured

[Milwaukee Eight]

39 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

You're right. Pretty certain there were more than 7 or 8 deaths in Florida. 

Florida only tracks Florida residents death so the 7 was correct. 

Edited July 9, 2020 by Milwaukee Eight

[pstone1]

1 hour ago, time4u2go said:

You're right. Pretty certain there were more than 7 or 8 deaths in Florida. 

 

38 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Florida only tracks Florida residents death so the 7 was correct. 

There were actually 48 more Florida resident deaths reported today.

[cured]

13 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Thanks for mentioning California. The media only mentions Florida and Texas. That should tell people something. 😇

 

M8

Don't forget Arizona. They blow the other 3 away in covid cases. The news this morning said they only had 200 ICU beds left in the state.  They are going to have to start moving to overflow.

[time4u2go]

30 minutes ago, pstone1 said:

 

There were actually 48 more Florida resident deaths reported today.

Ah ok. Thanks. 

[Milwaukee Eight]

39 minutes ago, pstone1 said:

 

There were actually 48 more Florida resident deaths reported today.

You are correct. Not sure where I grabbed that number from. But it was much more than 7. 
 

M8

Edited July 9, 2020 by Milwaukee Eight

[fisherguy]

3 hours ago, cured said:

Whatever you say.  Stay healthy and don't find yourself in an ICU. Death is not the worst thing Covid-19 can do. Oxygen for life, double lung transplants, permanent heart, kidney, and/or liver damage, limb amputations due to clots are some of the more common side effects.

 

It doesn't matter how many people are ready to cruise, no one is cruising from the US till the CDC says they are cruising and there are ports in countries that will actually allow US citizens to enter.

I said I wasn't going to weigh in on this but the arrogance of a particular poster spurred me on to read the article.

 

This is an excerpt from the article: 

 

Ioannidis did not spare modelers who predicted as many as 40 million people would die, or those who claimed the US healthcare system would be overrun.

“The predictions of most mathematical models in terms of how many beds and how many ICU beds would be required were astronomically wrong,” Ioannidis said. “Indeed, the health system was not overrun in any location in the USA, although several hospitals were stressed.”

 

 

Talk about misleading the public that model was based on if nothing was done to deal with the Virus (from another article):

 

 

If the world hadn’t taken action against the COVID-19 pandemic, most of the world would have become infected and 40 million lives could been lost, says a new report.

“We estimate that in the absence of interventions, COVID-19 would have resulted in 7.0 billion infections and 40 million deaths globally this year,” says a March 26 report by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team. 

 

 

WE DID TAKE ACTION thats why 40 million people aren't going to die!

 

 

If you are going to spin something to try and prove your case, at least do a decent job of it.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by fisherguy

[bouhunter]

13 hours ago, cured said:

 

Death is not the worst thing Covid-19 can do. Oxygen for life, double lung transplants, permanent heart, kidney, and/or liver damage, limb amputations due to clots are some of the more common side effects.

 

 

It's gotta' be tough getting up in the morning to dwell on all the hysteria and bad news.  Don't forget they said brain damage that could show up 10 years from now.......

 

 

[cured]

35 minutes ago, bouhunter said:

It's gotta' be tough getting up in the morning to dwell on all the hysteria and bad news.  Don't forget they said brain damage that could show up 10 years from now.......

 

 

Ok. 😎 

 

"Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance" - Confucius

 

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by cured