Its time to move on from 2020

[travelhound]

3 hours ago, boatseller said:

I understand why you would feel that way and the frustration at people who make choices you don't agree with.  The CDC has precious little credibility to maneuver with, between the overreaction in the NSO (it prevented an immeasurably small number of cases) and their only meaningful guidance being face coverings and hand washing (do we really need a multi-billion dollar agency to come up with this?).

 

So please understand that a lot of people are rightly concerned that the eventual guidance for the cruise lines will be more focused on face-saving than actual medicine.  The lockdowns didn't stop this so what reason should we believe that any future rules will?  Fighting Mother Nature will always be a losing proposition.

 

The reason no on will care (please don't make the mistake of conflating not caring with non-compliance) is because by the time cruising resumes, prevalence will be so high (active and recovered) that these rules will be utterly pointless.  I'm booked for October and I have zero expectation of a virus free cruise, despite all the efforts to make it so.

 

If anyone is counting on the rules to avoid serious consequences, then no, cruising isn't for them for the foreseeable future.  However, the vast, vast majority of people are not at risk for serious complications.  So for us in that group, it's time to pack a set of fabulous designer face coverings, grab and extra bottle of hand sanitizer (with moisturizer) and hit the gangway.

 

And before you extol Canada, Europe, Singapore or Taiwan, keep in mind, 6-9 months from now, they still be lauding themselves for how well they're handling it while the US, Sweden and maybe even Mexico will be done, over and uncanceled.  There is no guarantee of an effective vaccine so the faster we get to herd immunity, the sooner grandma can come out of hiding.

 

(Vox Populi 🙄...yes, BioShock is great game.)

Well said 🙂

 

[Ashland]

5 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

I get that, us as well, but there isn't a rational reason to start then. Except for it being the 1 year anniversary 

I wasn't rationalizing ! ... Just making a personal comment in regards to my B2B booked for March. 

 

Geeez !!! You can't even make a comment on these boards without some sort of blow back 

[ECCruise]

46 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

@John Reid @ECCruise

 

You’re trying to make this political. I’m not going to respond, hopefully the thread doesn’t get shut down. 
 

All I ask is consider the source and their agenda. 
 

Peace

M8

You know what?

On second thought, forget about it.  

Edited July 4, 2020 by ECCruise

[A&L_Ont]

2 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I agree but will say, you can’t keep these places shutdown. People can’t make their payments, Businesses are going out of business. They will never come back. The Government can’t keep printing money. 
 

M8

Until people smarten up and realize that masks should be worn, when they can’t social distance, they may as well just keep printing money.  
 

People should not lose their business because of the actions of some.  However, those bad actions will also ruin a business owners livelihood. Until a business holds their clients accountable it will be a revolving door, a double edge sword, or whatever you want to call it.
 

If a business wants to stay open and make money they need to keep their guests accountable. They might lose some business to some, and gain it from others.  Alternatively, when one loses their business licence because of bad practices they have also lost their livelihood.  
 

I’m sadly just waiting for bars and other business, that have been labeled as hot spots by health officials, to be sued for allowing people get the virus at their establishment etc. Having followed some simple rules, and common sense, would have been a lot smarter for all.

 

Edited July 4, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[Milwaukee Eight]

2 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

I’m sadly just waiting for bars and other business, that have been labeled as hot spots by health officials, to be sued for allowing people get the virus at their establishment

That’s one thing Americans have no shortage, Lawyers. Most politicians were once Attorneys. 
 

M8

[grandgeezer]

4 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

Until people smarten up and realize that masks should be worn, when they can’t social distance, they may as well just keep printing money.  
 

People should not lose their business because of the actions of some.  However, those bad actions will also ruin a business owners livelihood. Until a business holds their clients accountable it will be a revolving door, a double edge sword, or whatever you want to call it.
 

If a business wants to stay open and make money they need to keep their guests accountable. They might lose some business to some, and gain it from others.  Alternatively, when one loses their business licence because of bad practices they have also lost their livelihood.  
 

I’m sadly just waiting for bars and other business, that have been labeled as hot spots by health officials, to be sued for allowing people get the virus at their establishment etc. Having followed some simple rules, and common sense, would have been a lot smarter for all.

 

 

I can see this when/if cruising starts up. If the CDC makes it clear masks and social distancing must be part of the startup agreement, and the lines don't aggressively enforce it. I can see them being shutdown and open for litigation. Unless some idiot signs and agreement that exonerates  the line from any liability.

[Milwaukee Eight]

3 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:

Until people smarten up and realize that masks should be worn, when they can’t social distance, they may as well just keep printing money.  

I wear my mask. Today’s mask of the day in honor of the 4th. 
 

 

[John Reid]

"You’re trying to make this political. I’m not going to respond, hopefully the thread doesn’t get shut down. 
All I ask is consider the source and their agenda. " ???

 

Every shortcoming I listed is true; it happened; it exists. If the cause of these failures was political, I can't change that.

 

The sources???  The sources are what is happening in America every day. It does not matter the source.

They exist.

Which one on the list is not true?

[Iamcruzin]

13 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Probably more of a lifestyle 😉

It's truly a lifestyle. However, some of the replies and comments over the past few months suggest that some cc members need a 12 step program. I haven't seen some of those regulars posting. They must be in withdrawal.

[aus30]

I had a charter scheduled for Feb 2021.  Charter company moved it to Feb 2022.  That brought a lot of happiness in that, hopefully we will be vaccinated by then. 

Disco Cruise 2022!    I'll think about it until then. 

 

[A&L_Ont]

7 hours ago, Iamcruzin said:

It's truly a lifestyle. However, some of the replies and comments over the past few months suggest that some cc members need a 12 step program. I haven't seen some of those regulars posting. They must be in withdrawal.

September 15th, they will reappear. 
 

When they exit their home and they see their shadow that morning, they will return back inside.  They will remain there, as their is no more cruises for another six weeks.

[molly361]

5 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

September 15th, they will reappear. 
 

When they exit their home and they see their shadow that morning, they will return back inside.  They will remain there, as their is no more cruises for another six weeks.

[bouhunter]

27 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

September 15th, they will reappear. 
 

When they exit their home and they see their shadow that morning, they will return back inside.  They will remain there, as their is no more cruises for another six weeks.

LOL.  Thanks for the laugh this morning 🙂

 

[momofmab]

19 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I agree but will say, you can’t keep these places shutdown. People can’t make their payments, Businesses are going out of business. They will never come back. The Government can’t keep printing money. 
 

M8

 

100% agree.  Also the kids not being at school, playing sports, etc. - who's advocating for them?  What about the long term effects from isolation and lost-learning?  We're kidding ourselves if we don't think this virus (or a mutation thereof) is going to be a part of our lives for a while.  MAYBE there will be a vaccine available at some point in the next year or two (not months away) and likely the pharm companies will play their game of controlling the quantities and driving up the prices to get it - so we have that to look forward to.

 

We need to cautiously continue to allow businesses & schools to open, with mask & social distance guidelines with the realization that some people will continue to get the virus (with most recovering).  If we choose to leave our homes and go anywhere there are other people, we are accepting the risk that we may get the virus.  If we accept people into our homes that have been places where there are other people, we are accepting the risk that we may get the virus.

 

I wish that the U.S. implemented the mask mandate back in March - then maybe we wouldn't have had to "Lift & Switch" my daughter's fall wedding to late 2021, but unfortunately that didn't happen - and 200+ years of personal freedoms in the U.S. have resulted in large contingencies of citizens now refusing to comply because it infringes on their personal freedom.  The U.S. is its own worst enemy in any attempts to control the pandemic.

Edited July 5, 2020 by momofmab

[John&LaLa]

18 hours ago, Ashland said:

I wasn't rationalizing ! ... Just making a personal comment in regards to my B2B booked for March. 

 

Geeez !!! You can't even make a comment on these boards without some sort of blow back 

 

Ok, let's review the logical progression that got us here

 

On 7/3/2020 at 4:46 PM, lenquixote66 said:

I posted in early March that there would not be any cruising from the US until Feb.2021 at the earliest and people threw verbal daggers at me.

 

Lenny said he guessed no cruises until at least February '21 and people crucifie

 

On 7/3/2020 at 6:08 PM, Ashland said:

Certainly not me....I agree...and am looking forward to March cruising.

 

You agreed with what he said and are looking forward to March

 

On 7/3/2020 at 10:22 PM, John&LaLa said:

 

What makes March any different from February 🤔

 

I innocently asked why would March be more likely than February 

 

On 7/4/2020 at 3:09 AM, Ashland said:

Because that's when my next cruise will be.

 

Your answer

 

23 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

I get that, us as well, but there isn't a rational reason to start then. Except for it being the 1 year anniversary 

 

And my retort based on @Iamcruzin earlier contribution.

 

Please do not make me out to be a bully😉

 

Stay safe

[boatseller]

21 hours ago, fisherguy said:

I don't mean to be rude and admire your passion and tenacity but there is so much that's wrong with what you posted.

 

The lockdowns didn't stop this?  Look at countries that imposed lockdowns, New Zealand, Vietnam, Taiwan etc... They absolutely work if everyone is in compliance.  Heck look a New York.  They were absolutely slammed with the Virus.  They've flattened the curve and now they are worried about people from other states going into NY and possibly undo the great work they achieved.  Masks, Washing Hands and Social Distancing absolutely work.  This thing would eventually peter out if every person in the world listened and did what was suggested to them.  The problem as I said before is Human Nature.

 

There is no guarantee of Herd Immunity.  Way too early. Viruses mutate.  Why do you think people need flu shots every year?  Some 3rd world countries may not have a choice but we do.  This Virus is not like the common Flu.  To achieve Herd Immunity if it exists, at least 70% of the population has to get the virus.  How many casualties would there be?  What are the long term effects?  Many studies are showing that there may be some serious side effects showing at a later date even in young people.  Too much is not known.  No way I'm taking that chance for the sake of cruising.

I understand how you might feel this way and how difficult is is to read things that conflict with your understanding of a situation, but there is nothing wrong, with my post.  I highly suggest you read it again carefully to cover the points you missed.  Let me try to clear up some misconceptions you have.

 

I specifically addressed the situation with places like Taiwan.  That will only last until their borders reopen and the first undetected case arrives, then it starts all over.  Unless they are willing to stay closed off forever.  Not likely.  The lockdown 'works' so long as it is maintained which is unsustainable.

 

So far, while novel, it's just another coronavirus, which humanity has been dealing with forever.  Mutations?  Of course, but this is where a comparison to influenza is not particularly valid as Influenza is know to mutate much faster than other coronaviruses.

 

I feel like is should start making this point specifically, a vaccine creates Herd Immunity.  So Herd Immunity achieved through recovery or vaccination is the same thing.  If Herd Immunity is not possible, then there can never be a vaccine.  Coronaviruses are notoriously difficult to develop vaccines for and waiting an unknown amount of time for an vaccine of unknown effectiveness that an unknown number of people will take is also not sustainable.

 

C19 will not 'peter out' due to face coverings and hand washing.  This is quite absurd and not even the discredited WHO ever made that claim.  That guidance is meant solely to slow the spread or flatten the curve.  That's all.  Viruses fade due to immunity when they join the background noise of the 100's or 1000's of other nuisance viruses we deal with every day.

 

To correct one of your points, there are no 'studies' of side effects, just observations that scientists have not yet been able to definitively connect to C19 infections.  There are studies underway which may take months or years to yield conclusive results.  Since the same post infection symptoms have been observed for years prior to C19, a viable theory is an underlying condition that the infection merely exposes.

[boatseller]

22 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:

Only time will tell.  If that was the true goal, then America should have just rolled with it from the beginning and thrown caution to the wind.

That was never the plan.  The goal has always been Flatten the Curve.  In that respect, the lockdowns and closures worked too well as healthcare capacity, even in New York, was never strained.  The field hospital at Javits remains unused.

 

The ideal case is treatment capacity remains at 100% until the pandemic is over.

[HaveWeMetYet]

2 hours ago, boatseller said:

I understand how you might feel this way and how difficult is is to read things that conflict with your understanding of a situation, but there is nothing wrong, with my post.  I highly suggest you read it again carefully to cover the points you missed.  Let me try to clear up some misconceptions you have.

 

I specifically addressed the situation with places like Taiwan.  That will only last until their borders reopen and the first undetected case arrives, then it starts all over.  Unless they are willing to stay closed off forever.  Not likely.  The lockdown 'works' so long as it is maintained which is unsustainable.

 

So far, while novel, it's just another coronavirus, which humanity has been dealing with forever.  Mutations?  Of course, but this is where a comparison to influenza is not particularly valid as Influenza is know to mutate much faster than other coronaviruses.

 

I feel like is should start making this point specifically, a vaccine creates Herd Immunity.  So Herd Immunity achieved through recovery or vaccination is the same thing.  If Herd Immunity is not possible, then there can never be a vaccine.  Coronaviruses are notoriously difficult to develop vaccines for and waiting an unknown amount of time for an vaccine of unknown effectiveness that an unknown number of people will take is also not sustainable.

 

C19 will not 'peter out' due to face coverings and hand washing.  This is quite absurd and not even the discredited WHO ever made that claim.  That guidance is meant solely to slow the spread or flatten the curve.  That's all.  Viruses fade due to immunity when they join the background noise of the 100's or 1000's of other nuisance viruses we deal with every day.

 

To correct one of your points, there are no 'studies' of side effects, just observations that scientists have not yet been able to definitively connect to C19 infections.  There are studies underway which may take months or years to yield conclusive results.  Since the same post infection symptoms have been observed for years prior to C19, a viable theory is an underlying condition that the infection merely exposes.

Fantastic post on the subject. A rarity on this board or anywhere.

[zonacruiser25]

Sadly, the herd is beginning to be culled.  I guess this is to be expected.  Miami is also showing its problems.  Galveston lost the Allure.  It will be a survival of the fittest.  The leaders will emerge smaller and stronger.  The last thing to be now is the first to start up, get it wrong and shut down again.  Oh to be a fly on the wall in a cruise line boardroom! 

 

Pullmantur Cruises ships to be scrapped     

https://thepointsguy.com/news/three-classic-cruise-ships-scrapped/

 

Birka Cruises of Sweden call it quits

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/the-coronavirus-crisis-just-claimed-another-cruise-line/ar-BB16kRuj?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds

[Ashland]

4 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Ok, let's review the logical progression that got us here

 

 

Lenny said he guessed no cruises until at least February '21 and people crucifie

 

 

You agreed with what he said and are looking forward to March

 

 

I innocently asked why would March be more likely than February 

 

 

Your answer

 

 

And my retort based on @Iamcruzin earlier contribution.

 

Please do not make me out to be a bully😉

 

Stay safe

That's just how it unfortunately came across...especially when another (unnamed) 3rd party put their unnecessary .02 in.

So at this point let's just say "Peace Out" and leave it at that.

[fisherguy]

4 hours ago, boatseller said:

I understand how you might feel this way and how difficult is is to read things that conflict with your understanding of a situation, but there is nothing wrong, with my post.  I highly suggest you read it again carefully to cover the points you missed.  Let me try to clear up some misconceptions you have.

 

I specifically addressed the situation with places like Taiwan.  That will only last until their borders reopen and the first undetected case arrives, then it starts all over.  Unless they are willing to stay closed off forever.  Not likely.  The lockdown 'works' so long as it is maintained which is unsustainable.

 

So far, while novel, it's just another coronavirus, which humanity has been dealing with forever.  Mutations?  Of course, but this is where a comparison to influenza is not particularly valid as Influenza is know to mutate much faster than other coronaviruses.

 

I feel like is should start making this point specifically, a vaccine creates Herd Immunity.  So Herd Immunity achieved through recovery or vaccination is the same thing.  If Herd Immunity is not possible, then there can never be a vaccine.  Coronaviruses are notoriously difficult to develop vaccines for and waiting an unknown amount of time for an vaccine of unknown effectiveness that an unknown number of people will take is also not sustainable.

 

C19 will not 'peter out' due to face coverings and hand washing.  This is quite absurd and not even the discredited WHO ever made that claim.  That guidance is meant solely to slow the spread or flatten the curve.  That's all.  Viruses fade due to immunity when they join the background noise of the 100's or 1000's of other nuisance viruses we deal with every day.

 

To correct one of your points, there are no 'studies' of side effects, just observations that scientists have not yet been able to definitively connect to C19 infections.  There are studies underway which may take months or years to yield conclusive results.  Since the same post infection symptoms have been observed for years prior to C19, a viable theory is an underlying condition that the infection merely exposes.

 

 

And before you extol Canada, Europe, Singapore or Taiwan, keep in mind, 6-9 months from now, they still be lauding themselves for how well they're handling it while the US, Sweden and maybe even Mexico will be done, over and uncanceled.  There is no guarantee of an effective vaccine so the faster we get to herd immunity, the sooner grandma can come out of hiding.

 

 

Trying to achieve herd immunity without a vaccine is extremely reckless since there is no guarantee that it exists and still some uncertainty as to what the side effects are.  Vaccines are intended to achieve herd immunity in a safe and controlled way which is why its been difficult to find one since finding a way to produce a vaccine to create anti bodies to combat C19 while minimizing the side effects is proving to be challenging.  Given the prospects that we may never find one, we can only hope to flatten the curve and keep it under control.  H1N1 was a virus that comparatively infected very few around the world.  No herd immunity was ever achieved nor was there a vaccine for it.  It was controlled and eventually became a non factor.  Not saying it will happen with C19 to that extent but there has been no credible evidence so far that people that have had C19 and recovered can become contagious again.  So in theory, yes.

 

As for cruising,  until we get things under control globally, I'm afraid its not going to happen, at least with the type of cruising that we here are accustomed to.  Smaller cruises on smaller ships in countries that are doing well are possible (some have already started up).

 

Lockdowns were never meant to be forever.  The strategy was to flatten the curve, get infections under control, open up the economy again in a safe and controlled manner.  Here in BC, we have been in Phase 3 of opening up the economy for a couple of weeks now.  Tested daily infections went from an average of 8 to about 12 to 14.  This was expected as the level of contact increased.  Our infection % to tested is still hovering around 1% which is acceptable to our Health Officer.  Mask use and social distancing compliance is at a all time low since the end of March much to the concerns of some of us here (entirely due to complacency, not defiance).  But it doesn't seem to be costing us since our risk levels are low.  Small outbreaks here and there are easily detected and controlled through contact tracing which would be almost impossible to do if your infections are approaching 10,000 per day and 30% positive to tested.  Time will tell but so far its been working.  

 

How cruising factors into this is anyone's guess.  I love cruising just as much as anyone here and have had many brainstorming sessions in my head to figure out how to provide a cruising experience safely while dealing with C19.  It is not the job of CDC or any other health authority to figure this out for the Cruise Industry.  They must do this on their own given the set of guidelines that are applicable to every other business out there.

 

Thanks for the discussion and I hope we all can start cruising again in the not so distant future.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 5, 2020 by fisherguy

[Baron Barracuda]

4 hours ago, boatseller said:

That was never the plan.  The goal has always been Flatten the Curve.  In that respect, the lockdowns and closures worked too well as healthcare capacity, even in New York, was never strained.  The field hospital at Javits remains unused.

 

The ideal case is treatment capacity remains at 100% until the pandemic is over.

 

NYC healthcare capacity in April was severely strained.  Crisis was mostly felt in outer boroughs, not Manhattan.  Manhattan has only 25%  of NYC population and many large hospitals.  NY Times gave much coverage to what Elmhurst hospital in Queens went through (no link because paid site).  Javits Center and hospital ship were originally restricted to non-covid patients which were few.  Even when It began accepting Covid patients  Javits Center proved inadequate, lacking ICU and ventilators.  Here's an article on the situation:

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/why-nycs-largest-emergency-hospital-javits-center-pretty-much-empty-2020-4

[A&L_Ont]

On 7/4/2020 at 2:15 PM, Milwaukee Eight said:

That’s one thing Americans have no shortage, Lawyers. Most politicians were once Attorneys. 
 

M8

Same up here, from the parties across all spectrum left to right.  When they leave politics it is back to a Firm or a corporate seat. 

 

On 7/4/2020 at 2:24 PM, grandgeezer said:

I can see them being shutdown and open for litigation. Unless some idiot signs and agreement that exonerates  the line from any liability.

I think that agreement is the cruise contract, yet lawsuits are still launched. There might be a further release form, from the cruise lines relating to Covid, when cruising eventually returns.  Even with strong legal teams, a cruise guest’s lawyer will still fight for their client.  Either be it right or wrong. 😉

 

11 hours ago, boatseller said:

That was never the plan.  The goal has always been Flatten the Curve.  In that respect, the lockdowns and closures worked too well as healthcare capacity, even in New York, was never strained.  The field hospital at Javits remains unused.

 

The ideal case is treatment capacity remains at 100% until the pandemic is over.

I know it wasn’t the plan, yet it seems as though other states seem to have missed the lesson that was presented to them.  

[cured]

On 7/4/2020 at 7:31 AM, boatseller said:

I understand why you would feel that way and the frustration at people who make choices you don't agree with.  The CDC has precious little credibility to maneuver with, between the overreaction in the NSO (it prevented an immeasurably small number of cases) and their only meaningful guidance being face coverings and hand washing (do we really need a multi-billion dollar agency to come up with this?).

 

So please understand that a lot of people are rightly concerned that the eventual guidance for the cruise lines will be more focused on face-saving than actual medicine.  The lockdowns didn't stop this so what reason should we believe that any future rules will?  Fighting Mother Nature will always be a losing proposition.

 

The reason no on will care (please don't make the mistake of conflating not caring with non-compliance) is because by the time cruising resumes, prevalence will be so high (active and recovered) that these rules will be utterly pointless.  I'm booked for October and I have zero expectation of a virus free cruise, despite all the efforts to make it so.

 

If anyone is counting on the rules to avoid serious consequences, then no, cruising isn't for them for the foreseeable future.  However, the vast, vast majority of people are not at risk for serious complications.  So for us in that group, it's time to pack a set of fabulous designer face coverings, grab and extra bottle of hand sanitizer (with moisturizer) and hit the gangway.

 

And before you extol Canada, Europe, Singapore or Taiwan, keep in mind, 6-9 months from now, they still be lauding themselves for how well they're handling it while the US, Sweden and maybe even Mexico will be done, over and uncanceled.  There is no guarantee of an effective vaccine so the faster we get to herd immunity, the sooner grandma can come out of hiding.

 

(Vox Populi 🙄...yes, BioShock is great game.)

The shutdown was never meant to rid the country of the disease. It was only designed to slow the spread to give our medical establishment, which was overwhelmed, time to catch up. Ridding the country of the virus will only happen with a vaccine, which will happen. The mRNA ones are starting to look promising. Of course, I am biased because my child is one of the engineers working on one.

 

Herd immunity does not work. Look at Sweden's results.

[Iamcruzin]

With all this talk of herd immunity are any of you volunteering to get sick and passing it on?