Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[coffeebean]

26 minutes ago, coffeebean said:

I'm not upset at all. I see it this way.....I practiced all the CDC guidelines always but that was no guarantee that I would not contract Covid. I'm older so my chances of not having a good outcome were not in my favor. I'm thankful to have received the vaccine in January/ February and the protection it has afforded me to continue to enjoy my life.

Quoting myself here. Too late to edit.....meant to say, "my chances of having a good outcome were not in my favor" That double negative got me. LOL.

Edited June 1, 2021 by coffeebean

[LGW59]

On 5/28/2021 at 8:59 AM, Laurab23 said:

Yes my husband is very upset that he got the vac in January and now they are offering all the incentives to get the shot. I'm just glad I was able to get it in Feb.

 

Laura

What is he upset about?  The CVS giveaways, Ohio lottery, free donuts and coffee?  Glad I got my shots when I did, my incentive was my health and those I come in contact with.  Stay safe!

[Ken the cruiser]

From our point of view, there is no better giveaway than we got back in March when we received our first Pfizer shot! We had such a feeling of euphoria just to have been lucky enough to have gotten it back then that no material giveaway perk now could ever create that same feeling we got back then. And that was after sitting 7 hours in line! 😎

[Pinboy]

18 minutes ago, Pinboy said:

What are" all the incentives " he missed out on that he's " very upset " ? 

Trust me, I'm very upset also--- still waiting another few months for a 2nd shot !!!

 

 

 

I forgot to add----

" still waiting another few months for a 2nd shot ------right after the Montreal Canadiens win the Stanley Cup!!!

[ch175]

20 minutes ago, docsneeze said:

I am glad that they are offering incentives even though we got our vaccines back in January.  Anything that increases vaccination among the hesitant or resistant population only gets us closer to herd immunity and a more "normal" lifestyle for all.  I consider this a winner for all of us regardless of the lotteries, free donuts, free drinks, etc.  Unfortunately, there are enough resistant folks out there that we may never get to herd immunity for the next few years.

Why is is assumed that the only way to reach herd immunity is through getting vaccinated? As of March, 2021, the CDC estimates that nearly 115 million Americans have been infected. Wouldn’t they have some resistance and would contribute to herd immunity?

[LGW59]

6 minutes ago, Pinboy said:

I forgot to add----

" still waiting another few months for a 2nd shot ------right after the Montreal Canadiens win the Stanley Cup!!!

To quote your Canadian song bird, Blessed Are The Believers...

[D C]

CDC guidelines continue to be relaxed and case counts continue to drop.  Depending on the reporting from the long weekend, the US is looking to be at or near rates not seen since the initial spread in April of 2020.  That sure looks like a light at the end of the tunnel. 

[nocl]

1 hour ago, ch175 said:

Why is is assumed that the only way to reach herd immunity is through getting vaccinated? As of March, 2021, the CDC estimates that nearly 115 million Americans have been infected. Wouldn’t they have some resistance and would contribute to herd immunity?

Data shows that infection from some strains provides less immunity from other strains than vaccination.

 

Also some data indicates more variation in level and duration of immunity from natural infection that from vaccination.

 

Just as with vaccination natural immunity from infection will also become ineffective at some point so they will eventually need vaccination.

[LGW59]

29 minutes ago, D C said:

CDC guidelines continue to be relaxed and case counts continue to drop.  Depending on the reporting from the long weekend, the US is looking to be at or near rates not seen since the initial spread in April of 2020.  That sure looks like a light at the end of the tunnel. 

Most logical post here re this topic!  Now we are headed to the Lobster Pot for dinner, no masks needed!  🍤

[UnorigionalName]

1 hour ago, ch175 said:

Why is is assumed that the only way to reach herd immunity is through getting vaccinated? As of March, 2021, the CDC estimates that nearly 115 million Americans have been infected. Wouldn’t they have some resistance and would contribute to herd immunity?

 

It depends on your definition of "herd immunity"

 

It's the reason we do and don't have "herd immunity" to other strains of coronaviruses.   It's kind of mathematical, R0, the transmissibility of the disease, goes down as people become immune (through vaccination or prior infection), when R0 gets to 1, it reaches a steady state in the population, or eventually regionally R0 drops below one, and the disease kinda disappears for a while, but as more people are born who aren't immunized, and natural immunity wanes, the disease can come back in waves every few years (for other coronaviruses i think it's like every 2-3 years).

 

So there is the concept of "herd immunity" in reducing R0, where future waves are not as bad as the earlier pandemic phase, and where any prior resistance does help.   But it's pretty well shown now that natural immunity wanes, and that vaccination is probably a lot stronger than natural immunity, so the amount of protection a community gets from prior infection is a little up in the air.

 

The concept of "herd immunity" in terms of like measles where you have enough people immunized so the R0 is much lower than one, is only possible with immunization.  Where you don't have to really ever be worried, because even if the disease gets introduced, there's not enough people around to have sustained spread.  This type of herd immunity is only possible with immunization mathematically, to jump above the necessary level to get R0 much lower than 1, and where you universally immunize all children.

 

 

[TeeRick]

The posts from nocl and UnoriginalName address the herd immunity question of ch175 very well.   To be simple and brief, natural immunity (carried by some of us), and COVID virus-infection based immunity, and vaccine-induced immunity all contribute to reduced spread of the virus overall.  Time of protection from these types of immunity can be different.  All would contribute to a state of herd immunity if it could ever be reached which in my opinion is unlikely for this virus.  We need to focus on managing the virus and reducing severe cases (as vaccines do).

[Homosassa]

41 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Time of protection from these types of immunity can be different.  All would contribute to a state of herd immunity if it could ever be reached which in my opinion is unlikely for this virus.  We need to focus on managing the virus and reducing severe cases (as vaccines do).

Last week there was local news coverage of epidemiologists here in Florida who are predicting that Florida will never reach the goal of 70% vaccination due to vaccine resistance.

 

The best case scenario was 60% if certain areas of the state managed to immunize everyone (adults and children) in that area. Otherwise the projection is down to 40 - 50%.

 

It is unfortunate that public health measures to control Covid 19 has become a casualty of a combination of ignorance and political loyalty.

 

Fortunately (?) for the cruise industry, the areas where vaccination rates are higher  include some of the Florida port cities. Hopefully, passengers will remain Covid free if staying in the city pre-cruise. 

 

 

Edited June 2, 2021 by Homosassa

[TeeRick]

4 minutes ago, Homosassa said:

Last week there was local news coverage of epidemiologists here in Florida who are predicting that Florida will never reach the goal of 70% vaccination due to vaccine resistance.

 

The best case scenario was 60% if certain areas of the state managed to immunize everyone (adults and children) in that area. Otherwise the projection is down to 40 - 50%.

 

It is unfortunate that public health measures to control Covid 19 has become a casualty of a combination of ignorance and political loyalty.

 

Fortunately (?) for the cruise industry, the areas where vaccination rates are higher  include some of the Florida port cities. Hopefully, passengers will remain Covid free if staying in the city pre-cruise. 

 

 

In my state (PA) we are treading water at about 44% fully vaccinated and 58% with one shot.

[LGW59]

8 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

In my state (PA) we are treading water at about 44% fully vaccinated and 58% with one shot.

In MA we are at 54% fully vaxed and 66% with one shot, hopefully these folks will follow through with shot two.

[D C]

10 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

In my state (PA) we are treading water at about 44% fully vaccinated and 58% with one shot.

Looks like you're in the top 1/3 in the nation at 65% of 18-65 vaccinated, and darn good at 98% of 65+

Florida seems to be just above the bottom 1/3 of states at 50% of 18-65.  Not the worst, but 88% of 65+ have been jabbed, so that's pretty good.  

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html#eligibility

 

[puppycanducruise]

18 hours ago, Pinboy said:

I forgot to add----

" still waiting another few months for a 2nd shot ------right after the Montreal Canadiens win the Stanley Cup!!!

GO HABS GO!

[UnorigionalName]

2 hours ago, Homosassa said:

Last week there was local news coverage of epidemiologists here in Florida who are predicting that Florida will never reach the goal of 70% vaccination due to vaccine resistance.

 

That's the old goal. The new goal is somewhere between 90 and 95%...

 

[TeeRick]

Very general article on why some Americans are not getting vaccinated.  Not much here that is new if anything.

https://www.vox.com/2021/6/2/22463223/covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-reasons-why

[D C]

21 hours ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

That's the old goal. The new goal is somewhere between 90 and 95%...

 

With cases dropping to levels not seeing since March of 2020, and still falling, I have to wonder why.  

[graphicguy]

Kind of makes me wonder why all the Cruise lines just don't pull up stakes and look at other ports and forget about FL given all the hassle they want to put them through.  I'm sure Galveston, New Orleans, NYC, would all love to host ships sailing to the Caribbean and the Bahamas.

Edited June 3, 2021 by graphicguy

[LGW59]

2 minutes ago, graphicguy said:

Kind of makes me wonder why all the Cruise lines just don't pull up stakes and look at other ports and forget about FL given all the hassle they want to put them through.  I'm sure Galveston, New Orleans, NYC, would all love to host ships sailing to the Caribbean and the Bahamas.

Yep and LA, San Diego, San Francisco, Boston, New Jersey...DeSantis will eventually cave once he knows he can spin it as a win 

[Denny01]

28 minutes ago, graphicguy said:

Kind of makes me wonder why all the Cruise lines just don't pull up stakes and look at other ports and forget about FL given all the hassle they want to put them through.  I'm sure Galveston, New Orleans, NYC, would all love to host ships sailing to the Caribbean and the Bahamas.

I know you really understand.  Galveston is 3+days criusing to San Juan,  San Juan is 3days from NYC, almost 3 days from NO, one way. So you’d be stuck with Mexico ports for NO and Galveston most of the time, and 10+N cruises if anywhere except Cozumel! 

 

No, FL has the hook on most all of the Caribbean cruising. And FL fully understands the business model they need to support and maintain. And are just waiting for the silliness to die down.

 

A politician’s ambitions are soooo much more important than doing their job properly. 

 

Den

Edited June 3, 2021 by Denny01

[TeeRick]

16 minutes ago, Denny01 said:

I know you really understand.  Galveston is 3+days criusing to San Juan, 3days from NYC, almost 3 days from NO, one way. So you’d be stuck with Mexico ports for NO and Galveston most of the time, and 10+N cruises if anywhere except Cozumel! 

 

No, FL has the hook on most all of the Caribbean cruising. And FL fully understands the business model they need to support and maintain. And are just waiting for the silliness to die down.

 

A politician’s ambitions are soooo much more important than doing their job properly. 

 

Den

Cruise lines should learn from this and build new home ports in the Bahamas.  FL needs some competition.

[graphicguy]

I hate seeing business leave our country.  But, if gov’t becomes obstinate, regardless of it being municipal, state or Federal, if I’m trying to take care of my customers in a safe manner, and the gov’t is standing in my way of doing so, it’s time to rethink the relationship between the State of FL and the Cruise industry.

 

Cruise industry coming down on the side of the passengers, Florida coming down on the side of government interventionism.  Who’d have thought?

[LGW59]

1 minute ago, graphicguy said:

I hate seeing business leave our country.  But, if gov’t becomes obstinate, regardless of it being municipal, state or Federal, if I’m trying to take care of my customers in a safe manner, and the gov’t is standing in my way of doing so, it’s time to rethink the relationship between the State of FL and the Cruise industry.

 

Cruise industry coming down on the side of the passengers, Florida coming down on the side of government interventionism.  Who’d have thought?

Remember the day after a politician is elected, most ANY politician, thought number one is to be re-elected, number two is fund raising , cozy up to corporate donors, oh somewhere down the list is real constituents.