Carnival Now Says They Expect 13 Ships To Leave Their Fleet

[ch09]

1 minute ago, CruiseAdict218 said:

Did they update the tracker for Inspiration, they will probably sail together. 

Not yet. The Inspiration just arrived in Willemstad yesterday. The Fantasy has been there since the 9th.

[jimbo5544]

13 hours ago, Joe817 said:

Hmmmm.....I did not see any reference to taking off the extra generators.

Def the biggest asset on the ships

[xDisconnections]

15 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

Def the biggest asset on the ships

Couldn't imagine a Carnival ship without one nowadays.

[xDisconnections]

2 hours ago, ch09 said:

According to MarineTraffic, the Carnival Fantasy is going to Izmir, Turkey. This all but confirms that the ship will be scrapped at a Turkish scrapyard, with Aliaga being the most likely candidate. An announcement will likely be coming from Carnival Corp within the next few weeks confirming the sale as the ship will be in Turkey by the end of the month.

Progress!

[jimbo5544]

Just now, xDisconnections said:

Couldn't imagine a Carnival ship without one nowadays.

Go on a new one.....

[jimbo5544]

Just now, xDisconnections said:

Progress!

😪

[tidecat]

2 hours ago, fyree39 said:

Only if they each have all the upgrades.

Carnival Fanatsy was the only one missing an Alchemy Bar. It was also still on the "Sushi at Sea", "Coffee Bar", and "Spa Carnival" brands (not sure about "Special Occasions") but aside from the upgrades on the Lido Deck, the majority of it are signage and menu changes.

 

So if cruising resumes in 2020 or 2021, which one of Mobile or San Juan is left holding the bag? Or does Carnival move another Fantasy class ship to Mobile or San Juan, even if only temporarily?

[embarkation75]

3 minutes ago, tidecat said:

So if cruising resumes in 2020 or 2021, which one of Mobile or San Juan is left holding the bag? Or does Carnival move another Fantasy class ship to Mobile or San Juan, even if only temporarily?

 

I'm sure Carnival already has that answer as we will all find out in the next month or two. However, I think everybody better be prepared for some ports to lose Carnival cruises completely while other ports that had multiple ships/cruise options, are reduced down to a ship or two in order to move vessels into ports where for example, a Fantasy class ship was eliminated.

[DrSea]

Am I reading this correctly? 

 

Functional ships are going to be discarded to the junkyard and not sold off? How is that good news? It means that these assets are not worth anything bc they cannot be sold. 

[drsel]

The scrap value is less than 1% of the purchase cost

[CruiseAdict218]

22 minutes ago, DrSea said:

Am I reading this correctly? 

 

Functional ships are going to be discarded to the junkyard and not sold off? How is that good news? It means that these assets are not worth anything bc they cannot be sold. 

That is correct, no second hand buyer really wants those ships, lack of balconies among other things. Plus the ship is hitting 30, about the end of its service life so internal maintenance costs probably exceed any profit the ship could make at reduced capacity 

[xDisconnections]

2 minutes ago, drsel said:

The scrap value is less than 1% of the purchase cost

At the end of the day, it’ll cost money to operate as crew only or dock and they have already received a large enough return on investment. Fantasy is 30 years old already. Nobody is in the market to buy a rust bucket from Carnival.

Edited July 12, 2020 by xDisconnections

[tidecat]

18 minutes ago, DrSea said:

Am I reading this correctly? 

 

Functional ships are going to be discarded to the junkyard and not sold off? How is that good news? It means that these assets are not worth anything bc they cannot be sold. 

Yes. There is no market for used cruise ships. Birka Cruises and Pullmantur, two small European lines, have both closed their doors; more will certainly follow. 

 

Each ship costs upwards of $1 Million a month to maintain, even with a skeletal crew, and there's no revenue coming in to offset that.

[DrSea]

31 minutes ago, tidecat said:

Yes. There is no market for used cruise ships. Birka Cruises and Pullmantur, two small European lines, have both closed their doors; more will certainly follow. 

 

Each ship costs upwards of $1 Million a month to maintain, even with a skeletal crew, and there's no revenue coming in to offset that.

In that case, the cruise market is in way worst shape then most of us realize and imo the stock prices are way inflated. When these multi-million dollar ships are worth more scrapped, then we are screwed. I cannot believe that we are at this point now. 

 

CCL should value their customers a lot more than the way they act. 

[CruiseAdict218]

44 minutes ago, DrSea said:

In that case, the cruise market is in way worst shape then most of us realize and imo the stock prices are way inflated. When these multi-million dollar ships are worth more scrapped, then we are screwed. I cannot believe that we are at this point now. 

 

CCL should value their customers a lot more than the way they act. 

You are blaming them for something they have no control over, plus all the big companies are in the same situation as Carnival. 
 

Look at Pullmantur, the ships are basically sailing to the scrap yard or else where and they have yet to announce it and that brand falls under Royal Caribbean. 

[npcl]

14 minutes ago, CruiseAdict218 said:

You are blaming them for something they have no control over, plus all the big companies are in the same situation as Carnival. 
 

Look at Pullmantur, the ships are basically sailing to the scrap yard or else where and they have yet to announce it and that brand falls under Royal Caribbean. 

The Pullmantur ships are being scrapped.  Previous reports that anything of value was being taken off them prior to them sailing to Turkish scrap yards.

 

Costa Victoria, a 25 year old ship is also headed to the scrap yard.

Edited July 12, 2020 by npcl

[DrSea]

15 minutes ago, CruiseAdict218 said:

You are blaming them for something they have no control over, plus all the big companies are in the same situation as Carnival. 
 

Look at Pullmantur, the ships are basically sailing to the scrap yard or else where and they have yet to announce it and that brand falls under Royal Caribbean. 

Please see the highlighted words in red in my post. 

 

1 hour ago, DrSea said:

In that case, the cruise market is in way worst shape then most of us realize and imo the stock prices are way inflated. When these multi-million dollar ships are worth more scrapped, then we are screwed. I cannot believe that we are at this point now. 

 

CCL should value their customers a lot more than the way they act. 

Also, I am just saying that CCL should treat their loyal customers (us) well bc it will be us who will be rebuilding their empire. 

 

Geez. Calm down people. No need to jump down each other's throats. 

[drsel]

If you apply a 20% depreciation on a written down basis, any asset whether a car or ship, becomes one tenth in 10 years (worth only 10.73% depreciated value)

and

1/100 (worth 1.15%) in 20 years

 

 

[tidecat]

Twelve months ago I could have said there is no market for used cruise ships, and still been absolutely correct.

 

If you're a smaller operator like Bahamas Paradise or CMV, are you going to spend $30-$60 Million to buy and refurbish a 25+ year old vessel? You do if you think you can expand your service, but if you're replacing an otherwise seaworthy and functional vessel, it's a tough investment to justify. Now you have no revenue coming in either, so it's virtually impossible to justify.

 

The flip side is that every smaller operator that bites the dust only helps the major lines.

[drsel]

I wonder how the really expensive luxury Cruise lines will price their sailings now.

Regent seven seas, Seabourn, Silverseas, Ponant, Crystal, Oceania

 

[xDisconnections]

23 minutes ago, drsel said:

I wonder how the really expensive luxury Cruise lines will price their sailings now.

Regent seven seas, Seabourn, Silverseas, Ponant, Crystal, Oceania

 

Hopefully they protect rate integrity like many upper mid-scale and luxury hotels so they continue to attract the same clientele and don’t force themselves to make dramatic cost-cutting measures because their ADR is in a downward spiral they can’t escape from. Heads in beds is not always the answer in the luxury segment.

[Stick93]

Anyway you slice or dice it the next cruise you go in will be more expensive and prob a different feel. Not sure if booking now will help - I have nothing booked and I feel like I don’t want to book until I know what is happening. There are no guarantees in life and in the cruising world everything can change tomorrw. It’s a shame what we are watching - the world is upside down and the cruise lines are being chewed up by the aftermath of the destruction. 

[PlanoDebbie]

This doesn't surprise me at all.  I sold all of my Carnival stock last week and took a huge loss on it.  The reason I sold is because CCL credit rating has been reduced to Junk, which is the absolute lowest you can have.  I believe they are selling off ships just to pay for current expenses to stay alive until they are able to cruise again.  Dividends have been cancelled as well.  I had accumulated about 400 shares of stock over the years.  Also sold all of my RCL stock last week as well.  As we are fast approaching retirement within the next few years, I needed to move that money into something else that would be generating some much needed dividends.

[drsel]

Previously sold
Costa neoClassica sold to Bahamas Paradise
Costa neoRiviera sold to AIDA (group Co.)
Costa Mediterranea - sold to Carnival-China JV
Pacific Aria - sold to CMV, early departure
Pacific Dawn - sold to CMV, early departure

Confirmed
Costa Victoria - sold for scrap
P&O Oceana - sold to Greek buyers

Very Likely
Carnival Fascination - sold for scrap
Carnival Inspiration - sold for scrap
MS Maasdam
MS Veendam
Costa neoRomantica

[KmomChicago]

More reports coming in that Carnival Fantasy has been sold for scrap and on its way to a breaking area in Turkey. Former Monarch of the Seas also being scrapped as Pullmantur looks to be perhaps out of this business.