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Carnival Now Says They Expect 13 Ships To Leave Their Fleet

N7786W Flyer

By N7786W Flyer,
in Carnival Cruise Lines

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drsel

drsel

Posted
Posted

According to CNBC:

"Shares of Carnival surged 9.5% after the cruise operator said it is seeing demand for voyages in 2021, with the majority of bookings being new and not from rescheduling, and will restart voyages from Germany in August.

The company also said on a conference call that it can be cash flow break even at a capacity between 30% and 50%"
CNBC’s Seema Modi reports

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embarkation75

embarkation75

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Cruiseboy06 said:

They are still returning crew home........ 

 

 I might have believed that a couple months back but not now and especially with the older Inspiration as I highly doubt they'd use that ship to return crew after sitting in Panama with the Imagination and Miracle for several months.

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chipmaster

chipmaster

Posted
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The airlines are making huge capacity adjustment and staff reductions as they are seeing realtime cash burn and how demand isn't coming back.  They have additional restrictions based on taking government money.

 

I find it interesting that Carnival is already making these changes so quickly into what must be a terrible market to do anything but scrap ships, and with billions of financing says it all.  It is UGLY

 

This is just the first round of adjustments, you can be sure once cruising attempts to restart it'll quickly require even more radical adjustments, of which we can only fantasize about.

 

"Large swaths of the cruise-ship and theme-park industries might go away. So could many movie theaters and minor-league baseball teams." 

 

There is a good OpEd on NYT here:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/10/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-economy-two-years.html

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Earthworm Jim

Earthworm Jim

Posted
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1 hour ago, outdoors27 said:

It's Carnival Corp not just Carnival ships. That's really not that big of a hit...

 

Out of around 100 ships, so a little under 13% of their fleet. That's a pretty big hit.

 

Of course, the Carnival line might lose a lower (or greater) percentage of ships than the Corp. as a whole. And probably a lower than 13% loss of total passenger berths, because it's more likely the older, smaller ships will be the ones to go.

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tidecat

tidecat

Posted
Posted

Here's a wildcard: what ships are up for drydock soon? Ships at least 15 years old are expected to be dry docked every 30 months (+/- 6 months). For ships younger than 15, this is once every 5 years.

 

Fantasy: last in January 2019, next: TBD - she will be due in January 2022, when she is scheduled to

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tidecat

tidecat

Posted
Posted

Here's a wildcard: what ships are up for drydock soon? Ships at least 15 years old are expected to be dry docked every 30 months (+/- 6 months). For ships younger than 15, this is once every 5 years.

 

Fantasy: last in January 2019, next: TBD - she will be due in January 2022, when she is scheduled to be replaced by Fascination in Mobile. I expect all cruises out of Mobile to be canceled for the balance of 2020 and 2021, unless if Carnival pulls out of San Juan early. Either way the Fantasy is gone.

 

Ecstasy: last in October 2019, next TBD - she may be the second oldest, but I don't see Carnival pulling the plug anytime soon.

 

Sensation: last in January 2020, next TBD - should be safe until at least the fall of 2022.

 

Fascination: last February 2018, next November 2020. If it's time for her to go, it has to happen by October. Only downside is that Carnival would be canceling cruises out of San Juan that would not likely be substituted with different bookings, losing a ship with a modest number of balcony cabins, and not having a ship in Mobile come 2022, after just having signed a multi-year deal with Mobile. At least those in Mobile have a short trip over to New Orleans, and this frees up tens of millions of dollars by avoiding drydock. Verdict: highly unsafe, but we should see clarity very soon.

 

Imagination: last in October 2019, next TBA. Imagination is a logical candidate due to the lack of non-suite balconies, but being less than a year out of drydock may make disposal problematic. If she is sold, it will likely be due to relative lack of profit potential in resuming service. Verdict: likely safe for now.

 

Inspiration: last in November 2018, next TBD. Inspiration has the disadvantage over Imagination in being further out of drydock. The real savings are preventing an expense in 2021, but she theoretically could go in for maintenance this year. Miracle and Imagination can pick up the slack for displaced West Coast cruisers. Verdict: unsafe

 

Elation: last March 2020, next TBD. She went in to drydock in early March, and came out to find operations completely stopped. The ship would be sold only as a last resort. Verdict: safe.

 

Paradise: last March 2018, next February/March 2021 (*if not officially announced, there are no sailings from February 26 through March 18, 2021). There may be trouble in Paradise, as she would be due soon. This would still be an unlikely candidate for sale unless if the disruption persists into next year. Verdict: safe for now, but could be unsafe later this year.

 

On the bubble: 1a. Inspiration, 1b. Fantasy, 2. Fascination, 3. Paradise. I think multiple cuts are a very real possibility given the goal of disposing of 17 ships (the four scheduled prior to 2020, plus the 13 announced by Carnival this year).

 

Carnival Victory is the other wildcard, as the materials for Carnival Radiance were likely delivered. I suspect if Carnival sells some other ships, they will proceed with the Radiance. 

 

I don't think we'll see any more cuts from P&O Australia, unless if Carnival is unable to complete the refurbishments on Golden Princess (Pacific Adventure) and Star Princess (Pacific Encounter). Pacific Explorer just came out of drydock in March 2020, so it is unlikely to be sold. The exception might be is if Carnival exits Australia entirely, in which case the incoming Princess ships go away and Pacific Explorer gets rebadged as the "other" P&O or to the China-specific brand.

 

Costa has already lost the Victoria, and Mediterranea is already scheduled to head to the China-specific brand. I would suspect neoRomantica is the next go due to her size - she was dry docked in 2017, but I can't find evidence of one after that.

 

I expect Princess will pay the heaviest price - Sea Princess, Crown Princess, and Island Princess are all scheduled for drydock in October and November. Sapphire Princess was last in drydock in March 2018, and would be due again shortly. Diamond Princess last came out of drydock on February 1, 2019, but may also get cut due to what happened at the onset of the pandemic. Ruby Princess, while less than 15 years old, will be slightly easier to boot, as her last drydock was October 2018. That could be 1/3 of its 18 ships.

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Joebucks

Joebucks

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

Just keep in mind it is the corporation, not just CCL.   Some of the newer may be easier to sell.

 

I couldn't imagine wanting to sell the the newer ones. At this point, they are burning through cash because of huge liabilities and they are looking at what makes the most sense to cut. Newer ships are more exciting, collect higher fares, have more upsell opportunities, and were designed to be cheaper to sail. To lose your flagship fleet would be move that would be hard to recover from. Almost suicide.

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jimbo5544 "Live from...." Rare

jimbo5544

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Earthworm Jim said:

 

Out of around 100 ships, so a little under 13% of their fleet. That's a pretty big hit.

 

Of course, the Carnival line might lose a lower (or greater) percentage of ships than the Corp. as a whole. And probably a lower than 13% loss of total passenger berths, because it's more likely the older, smaller ships will be the ones to go.

The point is that there are really two stories here, one for scrapping and one for selling.  They are probably two distinct groups of ships, and possibly mutually exclusive.  

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jimbo5544 "Live from...." Rare

jimbo5544

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Joebucks said:

 

I couldn't imagine wanting to sell the the newer ones. At this point, they are burning through cash because of huge liabilities and they are looking at what makes the most sense to cut. Newer ships are more exciting, collect higher fares, have more upsell opportunities, and were designed to be cheaper to sail. To lose your flagship fleet would be move that would be hard to recover from. Almost suicide.

They are not selling any flagships.  Newer as you describe is a relative term, in all probability ships built around 2000, vs newer classes of ships (which are dramatically bigger and prob have less appeal.  

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unc1acc Great Review Rare

unc1acc

Posted
Posted

I do know that the Fantasy, Ecstasy, Elation, inspiration and the Sunrise are all available for sale of ship broker websites. Anyone with a cool 100 Million laying around can get the Fantasy all by themselves. 

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xDisconnections

xDisconnections

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

They are not selling any flagships.  Newer as you describe is a relative term, in all probability ships built around 2000, vs newer classes of ships (which are dramatically bigger and prob have less appeal.  

No flagships? Guess the Vista isn’t quite as special as it once was 😉 

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Joe817

Joe817

Posted
Posted

Anything & everything can be had for the right price. IE: everything is for sale. Now whether it does or not, is a moot point.  Just the simple fact that something's for sale, doesn't mean it will sell. :classic_wink:

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Tom-n-Cheryl "Live from...." Rare

Tom-n-Cheryl

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, unc1acc said:

I do know that the Fantasy, Ecstasy, Elation, inspiration and the Sunrise are all available for sale of ship broker websites. Anyone with a cool 100 Million laying around can get the Fantasy all by themselves. 

 

Playing in the casino would certainly lose its allure!

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