Carnival Now Says They Expect 13 Ships To Leave Their Fleet

[jimbo5544]

2 minutes ago, Tom-n-Cheryl said:

 

I figured someone might catch that  😄

LOL, I’m so bright my mother called me son.

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

On 7/10/2020 at 2:42 PM, aquasea said:

Can't see article. Can you copy and paste it, anyone?

13 ships to leave the fleet

In June, Carnival Corp. announced that six ships would leave its fleet in the following 90 days. Friday, Carnival Corp. said additional ships would be removed from the fleet as well, reducing the full fleet by nearly 9%.

The 13 ships will meet different fates. One was sold in June, four are agreed upon for sale, five will be disposed of and there are "preliminary" agreements for another three ships, according to Friday's earnings report

[CruiseAdict218]

20 hours ago, tidecat said:

Here's a wildcard: what ships are up for drydock soon? Ships at least 15 years old are expected to be dry docked every 30 months (+/- 6 months). For ships younger than 15, this is once every 5 years.

 

Fantasy: last in January 2019, next: TBD - she will be due in January 2022, when she is scheduled to be replaced by Fascination in Mobile. I expect all cruises out of Mobile to be canceled for the balance of 2020 and 2021, unless if Carnival pulls out of San Juan early. Either way the Fantasy is gone.

 

Ecstasy: last in October 2019, next TBD - she may be the second oldest, but I don't see Carnival pulling the plug anytime soon.

 

Sensation: last in January 2020, next TBD - should be safe until at least the fall of 2022.

 

Fascination: last February 2018, next November 2020. If it's time for her to go, it has to happen by October. Only downside is that Carnival would be canceling cruises out of San Juan that would not likely be substituted with different bookings, losing a ship with a modest number of balcony cabins, and not having a ship in Mobile come 2022, after just having signed a multi-year deal with Mobile. At least those in Mobile have a short trip over to New Orleans, and this frees up tens of millions of dollars by avoiding drydock. Verdict: highly unsafe, but we should see clarity very soon.

 

Imagination: last in October 2019, next TBA. Imagination is a logical candidate due to the lack of non-suite balconies, but being less than a year out of drydock may make disposal problematic. If she is sold, it will likely be due to relative lack of profit potential in resuming service. Verdict: likely safe for now.

 

Inspiration: last in November 2018, next TBD. Inspiration has the disadvantage over Imagination in being further out of drydock. The real savings are preventing an expense in 2021, but she theoretically could go in for maintenance this year. Miracle and Imagination can pick up the slack for displaced West Coast cruisers. Verdict: unsafe

 

Elation: last March 2020, next TBD. She went in to drydock in early March, and came out to find operations completely stopped. The ship would be sold only as a last resort. Verdict: safe.

 

Paradise: last March 2018, next February/March 2021 (*if not officially announced, there are no sailings from February 26 through March 18, 2021). There may be trouble in Paradise, as she would be due soon. This would still be an unlikely candidate for sale unless if the disruption persists into next year. Verdict: safe for now, but could be unsafe later this year.

 

On the bubble: 1a. Inspiration, 1b. Fantasy, 2. Fascination, 3. Paradise. I think multiple cuts are a very real possibility given the goal of disposing of 17 ships (the four scheduled prior to 2020, plus the 13 announced by Carnival this year).

 

Carnival Victory is the other wildcard, as the materials for Carnival Radiance were likely delivered. I suspect if Carnival sells some other ships, they will proceed with the Radiance. 

 

I don't think we'll see any more cuts from P&O Australia, unless if Carnival is unable to complete the refurbishments on Golden Princess (Pacific Adventure) and Star Princess (Pacific Encounter). Pacific Explorer just came out of drydock in March 2020, so it is unlikely to be sold. The exception might be is if Carnival exits Australia entirely, in which case the incoming Princess ships go away and Pacific Explorer gets rebadged as the "other" P&O or to the China-specific brand.

 

Costa has already lost the Victoria, and Mediterranea is already scheduled to head to the China-specific brand. I would suspect neoRomantica is the next go due to her size - she was dry docked in 2017, but I can't find evidence of one after that.

 

I expect Princess will pay the heaviest price - Sea Princess, Crown Princess, and Island Princess are all scheduled for drydock in October and November. Sapphire Princess was last in drydock in March 2018, and would be due again shortly. Diamond Princess last came out of drydock on February 1, 2019, but may also get cut due to what happened at the onset of the pandemic. Ruby Princess, while less than 15 years old, will be slightly easier to boot, as her last drydock was October 2018. That could be 1/3 of its 18 ships.

Paradise and Elation are the safest due to them having azipods instead fixed propellers like the other 6. 

 

They won’t pull that many ships from one brand, Diamond, Sapphire, Crown and Ruby are still fairly young and much bigger then the ships Carnival Corp is letting go, wouldn’t make any sense unless they are shuffled to a different brand in house. If anything they will lose Sun and probably Pacific and keep Sea for a bit. 
 

I also don’t understand why people think Princess would get rid of Diamond/Ruby which I get they received negative press but if any brand was going to change their name it would have been Costa and they didn’t so I don’t suspect Princess would. 
 

I would also imagine Holland America will lose one if not both S Class ships.

[ch09]

Both the Fantasy and Inspiration are more than likely than not to be finished according to a Facebook post posted from the Port of Curaçao, which is a very credible source.

Edited July 11, 2020 by ch09
Wording change misspelled curaçao.

[Joe817]

I feel for the crew of ALL the ships all around the world just waiting for something to happen. I hope they are being fed and entertained well. 

[embarkation75]

10 minutes ago, ch09 said:

Both the Fantasy and Inspiration are more than likely than not to be finished according to a Facebook post posted from the Port of Curacaq. 

 

Yeah, it sure looks like both the Fantasy and Inspiration are toast when they start gutting heavy equipment.

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, embarkation75 said:

 

Yeah, it sure looks like both the Fantasy and Inspiration are toast when they start gutting heavy equipment.

😪

[Joe817]

2 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

😪

Ruh roh. That emoji tells me you know something I do not. Care to share?

[jimbo5544]

16 minutes ago, Joe817 said:

Ruh roh. That emoji tells me you know something I do not. Care to share?

I have no insight on this, but taking off the extra Generators and other items seems pretty definitive 

Edited July 12, 2020 by jimbo5544

[Joe817]

10 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

I have no insight on this, but taking off the extra Generators and other items seems pretty definitive 

Hmmmm.....I did not see any reference to taking off the extra generators.

[embarkation75]

6 minutes ago, Joe817 said:

Hmmmm.....I did not see any reference to taking off the extra generators.

 

Well we don't know what heavy equipment they are unloading but they sure aren't doing a renovation by taking out whatever heavy equipment this is referring to.

[Cruiseboy06]

The Inspiration/ Imagination ARE STILL ON SCHEDULE out of Long Beach til March 2022.  Sure anything can happen......  Only Panorama is showing up after March 2022..

[embarkation75]

Just now, Cruiseboy06 said:

The Inspiration/ Imagination ARE STILL ON SCHEDULE out of Long Beach til March 2022.  Sure anything can happen......  Only Panorama is showing up after March 2022..

 

I wouldn't count anything on the schedule as happening at this point as even the ships still in the fleet might be moved to different ports.

[ch09]

Just now, Cruiseboy06 said:

The Inspiration/ Imagination ARE STILL ON SCHEDULE out of Long Beach til March 2022.  Sure anything can happen......  Only Panorama is showing up after March 2022..

Schedules can change anytime until the sail date. Carnival Corp has not announced the sale of the ship. Carnival will continue to accept reservations until the sale is announced.

[Cruiseboy06]

Just now, embarkation75 said:

 

I wouldn't count anything on the schedule as happening at this point as even the ships still in the fleet might be moved to different ports.

[embarkation75]

8 minutes ago, Cruiseboy06 said:

 

Not sure I'd put too much stock in Carnival's May 2022 cruise availability for ships still in the fleet as it's fairly normal for only the 6+ day cruises to exist that far out.

[ch09]

17 minutes ago, Cruiseboy06 said:

Carnival is probably working out the details on cancelation and potential ship redeployments before announcing the sale to the shareholders. Until then, the ships will likely remain on the schedule accepting reservations. Even though it is still on the schedule, it can still be subject to change or cancellation. 

Edited July 12, 2020 by ch09

[Cruiseboy06]

5 minutes ago, ch09 said:

Carnival is probably working out the details on cancelation and potential ship redeployments before announcing the sale to the shareholders. Until then, the ships will likely remain on the schedule accepting reservations. Even though it is still on the schedule, it can still be subject to change or cancellation. 

I agreee!!

[xDisconnections]

1 hour ago, Cruiseboy06 said:

The Inspiration/ Imagination ARE STILL ON SCHEDULE out of Long Beach til March 2022.  Sure anything can happen......  Only Panorama is showing up after March 2022..

That’s cute.

[KmomChicago]

7 hours ago, Cruiseboy06 said:

The Inspiration/ Imagination ARE STILL ON SCHEDULE out of Long Beach til March 2022.  Sure anything can happen......  Only Panorama is showing up after March 2022..

 

All 8 Fantasy class ships are essentially interchangeable. It would be easy enough to transfer bookings to a different ship moved in to take over the Long Beach itineraries, if post-pandemic demand is high enough to continue to fill four short cruises per week from this port.  Or a larger ship could be moved over.

 

The two docked at the heavy equipment terminal in Curacao are among the three in this class that never had the addition of suprastructure balconies to a big handful of staterooms. Pretty much all cruise ships built from 2000 on have as many balcony staterooms as possible. Because people want them.  This is a factor that hurts Fantasy class and adds to its sense of being outdated.

 

Catalina is already a tender port so ship size should not be much of an issue, and I am not sure how big Ensenada can take but I don't see any reason they can't go up a class or two as well.  Perhaps someone with more technical knowledge can answer these questions.

[Radiioman46]

I think Carnival cruise lines can still use small ships. I also think that they could convert the ocean view rooms into balcony rooms cheaper than building new ships. But maybe not. I'm just thinking out loud.....

[ch09]

According to MarineTraffic, the Carnival Fantasy is going to Izmir, Turkey. This all but confirms that the ship will be scrapped at a Turkish scrapyard, with Aliaga being the most likely candidate. An announcement will likely be coming from Carnival Corp within the next few weeks confirming the sale as the ship will be in Turkey by the end of the month.

Edited July 12, 2020 by ch09

[vicnsue]

48 minutes ago, ch09 said:

According to MarineTraffic, the Carnival Fantasy is going to Izmir, Turkey. This all but confirms that the ship will be scrapped at a Turkish scrapyard, with Aliaga being the most likely candidate. An announcement will likely be coming from Carnival Corp within the next few weeks confirming the sale as the ship will be in Turkey by the end of the month.

 

Edited July 12, 2020 by vicnsue
Posted in error

[CruiseAdict218]

1 hour ago, ch09 said:

According to MarineTraffic, the Carnival Fantasy is going to Izmir, Turkey. This all but confirms that the ship will be scrapped at a Turkish scrapyard, with Aliaga being the most likely candidate. An announcement will likely be coming from Carnival Corp within the next few weeks confirming the sale as the ship will be in Turkey by the end of the month.

Did they update the tracker for Inspiration, they will probably sail together. 

[PhillyFan33579]

1 hour ago, fyree39 said:

Only if they each have all the upgrades.

I think the previous point was any Fantasy class ship can easily replace another Fantasy class ship at any port. The fact that every Fantasy class ship is not an exact replica of each other (not all of them have an Alchemy Bar for example) is probably not a major concern to Carnival if/when they move ships around based on future demands and/or how Carnival decides to best deploy their ships around the US.