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US cruising in early January (speculation)

bigrednole

By bigrednole,
in Royal Caribbean International

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Welly9

Welly9

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, BND said:

You don't have to be a statistician to know that.  Numbers can be manipulated to say anything you want.   Our county just reports out numbers and breaks them up by positive cases (numbers and %), numbers tested, how many by zip code. population by zip code, deaths by age groups,etc.  So, there are ways to get actual numbers.  The problem comes in when someone  takes those numbers and turns them into something and/or someone takes numbers and puts them in a report without context.  Most news stories are done that way, they have an agenda.   Polls are only as good as the questions asked and how they are asked.  I hate yes/no polls because the questions are usually written in such a way to get the answer they want.  

 

My DH works with a guy (degreed engineer so lots of math) who has been analyzing the data to death.  It drives him crazy to read the numbers reported out because they leave out important info and are reported incorrectly a lot of the time.  My oldest son took college level probability and stats in HS (went to the Governor's Science and Tech HS) and then he double majored in math and astronomy in college and uses his degrees in his job, and his instructor in HS had a MS in stats.  She showed them all kinds of ways that stats are manipulated daily.  

 

I've looked at the death rates from COVID-19 based on numbers reported out and while people are making a lot of noise about the US, our death rate is lower than a lot of other countries.   But, you don't see that.  What you see is 190K people without any context (age, health status prior, etc).  

OHHH you mean 'Garbage in Garbage out'!

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BND

BND

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Please see post #378. They know about the magical zip code in SC. Was from previous threads. They seem to have disappeared on CC. 
 

M8

I missed that.  But one of our reps puts out a report everyday.  He also includes  some Virginia, US and global numbers.  We have no large university here, just small one  with dorms and satellite campuses for others, plus the usual online schools.  I do wonder how college town numbers will look, esp in a couple of weeks.

 

As you can see the deaths are skewed heavily towards 80+ and in fact 85 deaths have been in long term care facilities.

 

My particular zip code since March 17th

444 cases, 7,490 tests Population ~ 58,459

 

Loudoun County, VA

Cumulative from March 17th:
Total confirmed cases in Loudoun: 6,327 (+54 over 24 hours)
Total Hospitalization in Loudoun: 402 (+3 over 24 hours)
Current Hospitalization in Loudoun: 13 (+0 over 24 hours)
Total Deaths in Loudoun: 118 (+0 over 264 hours)
Total Tests in Loudoun: 72,573 (+429 over 24 hours)
Loudoun 7-Day Average
PCR Tests: 7.7%
Total Tests: 8.0%
Loudoun Fatalities Stats:
Age 40-49: 1
Age 50-59: 4
Age 60-69: 9
Age 70-79: 19
Age 80+: 84
Age Not Reported: 1
 
 
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Milwaukee Eight

Milwaukee Eight

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, BND said:

I missed that.  But one of our reps puts out a report everyday.  He also includes  some Virginia, US and global numbers.  We have no large university here, just small one  with dorms and satellite campuses for others, plus the usual online schools.  I do wonder how college town numbers will look, esp in a couple of weeks.

 

As you can see the deaths are skewed heavily towards 80+ and in fact 85 deaths have been in long term care facilities.

 

My particular zip code since March 17th

444 cases, 7,490 tests Population ~ 58,459

 

Loudoun County, VA

Cumulative from March 17th:
Total confirmed cases in Loudoun: 6,327 (+54 over 24 hours)
Total Hospitalization in Loudoun: 402 (+3 over 24 hours)
Current Hospitalization in Loudoun: 13 (+0 over 24 hours)
Total Deaths in Loudoun: 118 (+0 over 264 hours)
Total Tests in Loudoun: 72,573 (+429 over 24 hours)
Loudoun 7-Day Average
PCR Tests: 7.7%
Total Tests: 8.0%
Loudoun Fatalities Stats:
Age 40-49: 1
Age 50-59: 4
Age 60-69: 9
Age 70-79: 19
Age 80+: 84
Age Not Reported: 1
 
 

Nearly 70% of deaths in our County are from long term care facilities. Also, many of hospital COVID19 beds are from those same long term care facilities. The long term care facilities are not welcoming the patients back even though stable. Learned lessons from the NY blunder. 
 

M8

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TheMastodon

TheMastodon

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Nearly 70% of deaths in our County are from long term care facilities. Also, many of hospital COVID19 beds are from those same long term care facilities. The long term care facilities are not welcoming the patients back even though stable. Learned lessons from the NY blunder. 
 

M8

 

62% of deaths in Ohio from long term care facilities.  

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BND

BND

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Nearly 70% of deaths in our County are from long term care facilities. Also, many of hospital COVID19 beds are from those same long term care facilities. The long term care facilities are not welcoming the patients back even though stable. Learned lessons from the NY blunder. 
 

M8

Ours is also about 70%.  My MIL lives in a very nice senior living place.  She's in the independent living portion but they also have two long term care buildings (memory, assisted, rehab, etc).  All the deaths at her facility were in the long term and not all had been residents before Covid.  They've have very few staff and only two independent residents catch it and they all recovered.  These are the numbers that are rarely reported out to show the real issue.  All these college students are catching it but you're not hearing much else.

 

The real problem cruise lines have is not all their passengers are healthy (or under 75) so this is a tough one for them because you know they will get blamed if there are cases.  I haven't expected cruising to start back up this year, but even if it does, as I said previously, I think people will not be happy with how it's done (shorter cruises, only out of a couple of ports).

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Baron Barracuda

Baron Barracuda

Posted
Posted

Read through the Miami Herald recap of yesterday's Tourism & Ports meeting.  Article mentions cruise exec complaints about CDC moving too slow but seems to place blame for situation on inadequate submissions by cruise lines.  Del Rio wants CDC to hurry but mentions he still  hasn't received recommendations from RCL / NCLH advisory panel.   Execs believe they are ready to go, but CDC data show new covid cases on seven ships in layup during August.  If they can't prevent outbreaks on ships carrying minimal crew how can they be allowed to carry thousands of passengers?

 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article245624180.html

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BND

BND

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, yogimax said:

That's a meaningless statement unless you add that it's also higher than a lot of countries.

Never said it wasn't, but we've seen plenty of people post about how horrible the US is.  Everything in context.

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TheMastodon

TheMastodon

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, BND said:

Never said it wasn't, but we've seen plenty of people post about how horrible the US is.  Everything in context.


Certain parts of the US were bad.  

 

Ah the media darling NY vs the evil empire of Florida.  Florida was constantly ridiculed about how they handled things - let’s check the data.  
 

 

 

 

68407F45-FAE1-4B78-885A-F96C987F324B.png

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John&LaLa "Live from...." Rare

John&LaLa

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Please see post #378. They know about the magical zip code in SC. Was from previous threads. They seem to have disappeared on CC. 
 

M8

 

Because we discovered the 'dome' was powered by a nuclear reactor next door.😉

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John&LaLa "Live from...." Rare

John&LaLa

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, TheMastodon said:


Certain parts of the US were bad.  

 

Ah the media darling NY vs the evil empire of Florida.  Florida was constantly ridiculed about how they handled things - let’s check the data.  
 

 

 

 

68407F45-FAE1-4B78-885A-F96C987F324B.png

 

We learned a lot from NYC, keep that in mind

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beerman2

beerman2

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Read through the Miami Herald recap of yesterday's Tourism & Ports meeting.  Article mentions cruise exec complaints about CDC moving too slow but seems to place blame for situation on inadequate submissions by cruise lines.  Del Rio wants CDC to hurry but mentions he still  hasn't received recommendations from RCL / NCLH advisory panel.   Execs believe they are ready to go, but CDC data show new covid cases on seven ships in layup during August.  If they can't prevent outbreaks on ships carrying minimal crew how can they be allowed to carry thousands of passengers?

 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article245624180.html

A week to 10 days from submitting plans, what "have" they been doing? NOW it's urgent because their backs are against the wall.

 

The finger pointing continues.

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BND

BND

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, John&LaLa said:

 

We learned a lot from NYC, keep that in mind

Hopefully NY learned a lot from their experience.   What I find interesting right now is flu numbers in the southern hemisphere are extremely low.  That's good and bad.  Not being exposed to viruses makes your immune system weaker.  

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A&L_Ont "Live from...." Rare

A&L_Ont

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Pratique said:

Next step for the CDC is to evaluate and respond to the public comments they received to their questions (which, by the way, a random sampling of comments shows that most people were not interested in giving specific answers to those questions). With a plan in hand from the industry, CDC then has to formulate the regulations and go through a round of rulemaking with another public comment period (at least 30 days). Then the rules can go into effect. These things take time even when there is an industry lobby pressing the issue. We also don't know how long it will take the cruise lines to come into compliance with the final rules because we don't know what they are yet.

 

How about a time frame calendar to calculate when the earliest the ships might set sail.  Perhaps there are other time frames to add that others are aware of but I’m going by your suggested dates. 

 

  • The cruise lines summit their plans on September 21st.

 

  • If the CDC only uses 30 works days (no weekends or holidays) to review the industry plans that becomes November 3rd.  
     
  • The Chief said it takes approximately 2 months to get a ship fully operational under normal conditions. If the plan is accepted November 3rd and no extra work is required that would make in January 2nd. 


Then there are the easier unknowns that can take longer. 

 

  • The CDC can take longer to make their decision and accept the plan or send it back for more changes for not being acceptable. 

 

  • If it’s is accepted the cruise lines might have to make changes to ships (such as ventilation) before they can sail. That amount of time is unknown.

 

Quote

 

I would think they could start the manning before then, though. Everyone on standby ready to go.

 

I agree with part of this, everyone on standby. There is so much unknown, other than the CDC appears to be in no hurry.
 

I personally don’t see the cruise industry physically manning ships until they have an approved plan. They will have crew lined up on land but until they have an accepted plan they don’t even know what ship size and capacity they are allowed to sail with. For example the industry thinks smaller ships are better for cost point but the CDC wants the newer ships that have better air systems.  To determine which ship to prepare for is impossible until you have an accepted plan. 
 

IMO they will try to organize as much as they can, until it is money out of pocket. They will spend that money on experts to put the plans together and maintain their ships at sea but after that they are watching every penny. 
 

When they are “cash strapped“ it is all about the money. 

 

 

Edited by A&L_Ont
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A&L_Ont "Live from...." Rare

A&L_Ont

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, beerman2 said:

A week to 10 days from submitting plans, what "have" they been doing? NOW it's urgent because their backs are against the wall.

 

The finger pointing continues.


One of the most poignant comments on the video conference was from the union representative of the port workers. 
 

His words were basically as follows...  when times are good, it’s good for all of us.  When times are bad it’s bad for all of us.
 

He could not have said it any better, for all related to the industry. 

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John&LaLa "Live from...." Rare

John&LaLa

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, yogimax said:

Sadly, the rest of the country did not learn from our experience.

 

Not true at all 

 

Deaths are way down from the spring spike.

 

Even with the outrageous number of positive cases in June and July, our death rates never hit those of NY. 

 

We learned how to save lives

Screenshot_20200911-234120_Chrome.thumb.jpg.fe62d289f365ef0149aeefaf9b3ec529.jpg

Edited by John&LaLa
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