Long haul travel not till 2023 or 2024?

[lorri111]

I see Bloomberg and other experts are now refuting any significant likelihood of uptake of any air travel in 2021 and no real recovery of long haul till 2023 at earliest. See Flyertalk article and Bloomberg. What does this mean for cruising? Ships would have to position themselves long term in a particular country and take only local cruisers. Our borders in Australia are unlikely to open this year anyway. How will the lines survive? I am now getting seriously worried about their possible bankruptcy and the need to pull out of the cruises I have booked for late 2021/mid 2022 to get my deposits back. It is not looking good.

[beg3yrs]

They are predicting that the number of people traveling 'long haul' will not increase to previous levels until 2023 at the earliest.

 

They are not saying that flights will not be available, only that not that many people will take them.

 

I think your supposition that cruises will only be taking local cruisers because people can't get there is unlikely.

[jagoffee]

I agree.  It will not be the availability of flights that determines when and where a cruise operates.  If there is demand for the flights, the airlines will easily add flights.  

[HaveWeMetYet]

lori111 is right. 

Long haul travel is going to be slow to return because many countries will keep quarantine and entry restrictions in effect until covid is under control worldwide. Canada PM said exactly that a few weeks ago. It will be mid 2023 or early 2024 before that occurs. And that assumes new variants don't pop up that evade vaccines.

Cruising will be regional for a couple of years when it returns. There will be no trans Atlantic or trans Pacific cruises. The cruise lines will just layup the ships during off seasons. It is too costly to keep going through the CDC CSO every time a ship comes in from a foreign port and to qualify all the crew members with whatever regional protocols are in place elsewhere in the world.

Once a ship is cleared to operate out of a port it will stay there at least until all the covid stuff is over, if that ever occurs.

[beg3yrs]

4 minutes ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

lori111 is right. 

Long haul travel is going to be slow to return because many countries will keep quarantine and entry restrictions in effect until covid is under control worldwide. Canada PM said exactly that a few weeks ago. It will be mid 2023 or early 2024 before that occurs. And that assumes new variants don't pop up that evade vaccines.

Cruising will be regional for a couple of years when it returns. There will be no trans Atlantic or trans Pacific cruises. The cruise lines will just layup the ships during off seasons. It is too costly to keep going through the CDC CSO every time a ship comes in from a foreign port and to qualify all the crew members with whatever regional protocols are in place elsewhere in the world.

Once a ship is cleared to operate out of a port it will stay there at least until all the covid stuff is over, if that ever occurs.

You might be right (even a broken clock is right twice a day) and I respect that this is your opinion as much as it is the opinion of the people who wrote the articles lori111 referenced. However, it remains to be seen how all this plays out.

[SelectSys]

19 hours ago, lorri111 said:

I see Bloomberg and other experts are now refuting any significant likelihood of uptake of any air travel in 2021 and no real recovery of long haul till 2023 at earliest.

 

This seems to be a very real scenario.  Given the progress to date, it seems that any sense of "normalcy" in international travel is going to stretch well into 2022.

 

20 hours ago, lorri111 said:

Our borders in Australia are unlikely to open this year anyway.

 

I have been thinking that both the borders of Australia and New Zealand will be among the last to open.  It may be that vaccines will be directed by manufacturers (especially those controlled by US and European companies)  to "home markets" with more pressing case loads and thereby delay progress in countries that were more successful in combating the virus.  I have seen that Canada now is attempting to start manufacturing as shipments for vaccines sourced in Europe have not been forthcoming due to a variety of issues.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/vaccine-development-production-in-canada-1.5868398

 

4 hours ago, beg3yrs said:

They are not saying that flights will not be available, only that not that many people will take them.

 

I think it is more a case that people will be prevented from taking them if only essential international travel is available.

 

1 hour ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

Cruising will be regional for a couple of years when it returns. There will be no trans Atlantic or trans Pacific cruises. The cruise lines will just layup the ships during off seasons.

 

I think you are spot on!  This is exactly what we have seen so far and what we are likely to have for the foreseeable future.

 

20 hours ago, lorri111 said:

I have booked for late 2021/mid 2022 to get my deposits back. It is not looking good.

 

If Australia allows the ships back in, it could be that some will go at least around Australian and New Zealand waters.   I wouldn't be as confident regarding South Pacific or Asian cruises.

 

[Hlitner]

The current travel situation is somewhat depressing and the cruise situation is catastrophic.   We all must make many choices in life and most travelers have simply decided to stay home and "shelter in place."  But I have spent a lifetime of extensive world travel trying to take advantage of bad travel situations.  So, for example, when we had the first Gulf War travel between the USA travel to Europe dropped off to a trickle.  So one weekend we found a terrific deal on British Air and flew to London for a long weekend with a huge hotel discount, West End tickets at half price, etc.   After 9/11 when folks stopped traveling we grabbed a flight to Las Vegas for a quick week trip.  When the situation with Egyptian Tourism was really bad (not long after the massacre at Luxor) we booked air to Cairo and had a fantastic couple of weeks running all over Egypt by ourselves.   And even now we find ourselves spending our usual winter in Puerto Vallarta where the crowds are very thin, it is easy to get in our favorite restaurants, the weather is good (but a little cool), and life is good despite some restrictions and a sad COVID problem in Mexico.

 

So, I look at what is happening with COVID and travel and wonder where the best travel opportunities lie.   I do believe that opportunities for independent land travel will open up before all other travel (especially cruises).  So once the EU begins to open up to International travel (which will likely require mandatory vaccinations) we will be on a flight to Europe.  Once Japan opens back up we will try to quickly get back to Asia (be it on a cruise or via air).   I do not mean being reckless, but taking care to follow the rules, use common sense caution, and work with the system.  While we are booking future cruises we will not be sitting in our basement praying that those cruises even happen (we have already had 4 ambitious cruises cancelled by the cruise lines).   I prefer to think of it as hedging my bet.  While booking future cruises we will continue to travel when and where it is possible and relatively safe.

 

Hank

[ed01106]

The premise of the travel won’t resume until 2023 is based on the idea that travel won’t resume until 80% of the planet has the vaccine and the disease is under control worldwide.

 

I disagree.  Once the vaccine is wildly available to the population of people wealthy enough to afford international travel, international travel will resume with as little regard for the impact of covid on poor people as our current level concern for people dying of malnutrition.  
 

Some countries might be off limits, but those will be countries that neither have many people traveling abroad nor are popular tourist attractions.  New York to Paris will open up if both USA and France is mostly under control even as the pandemic rages on in Haiti.   

[John Bull]

4 hours ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

There will be no trans Atlantic or trans Pacific cruises. The cruise lines will just layup the ships during off seasons. It is too costly to keep going through the CDC CSO every time a ship comes in from a foreign port and to qualify all the crew members with whatever regional protocols are in place elsewhere in the world.

Once a ship is cleared to operate out of a port it will stay there at least until all the covid stuff is over, if that ever occurs.

 

I certainly don't see that happening - I'm pretty certain that ships will switch to seasonal bases, though possibly the re-positioning cruises will be without passengers.

Covid-19 does not survive outside the human body - on things like paper or cardboard it survives only a few hours, on fabrics only a little longer, and on polished metal surfaces only a few days. And the incubation period is usually only about 5 days, rarely up to 10 days, so crew can be cleared for a first cruise out of the new season, backed up by testing both before and after the repositioning.

 

Want to buy a second-hand car? If you leave it locked and un-used for a week you don't even need to sanitise it.

 

JB 🙂

Edited February 8, 2021 by John Bull

[SelectSys]

2 hours ago, Hlitner said:

So, I look at what is happening with COVID and travel and wonder where the best travel opportunities lie.   I do believe that opportunities for independent land travel will open up before all other travel (especially cruises).  So once the EU begins to open up to International travel (which will likely require mandatory vaccinations) we will be on a flight to Europe.  Once Japan opens back up we will try to quickly get back to Asia (be it on a cruise or via air). 

 

Totally agree on the point that opportunities will exist.  The key to exploiting thee opportunities is totally dependent on the willingness of countries to accept visitors.

 

1 hour ago, ed01106 said:

I disagree.  Once the vaccine is wildly available to the population of people wealthy enough to afford international travel, international travel will resume with as little regard for the impact of covid on poor people as our current level concern for people dying of malnutrition.  

 

I agree with your point that travel will not open up evenly.  The question is how fast the people will be vaccinated to open up travel inside their country?  So far, the progress isn't all that quick.  The data suggests that neither Japan or Australia have even started the process.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, ed01106 said:

Some countries might be off limits, but those will be countries that neither have many people traveling abroad nor are popular tourist attractions.

 

Yes and no.  Some middle and low income countries have popular tourist attractions.  Peru, Thailand and many others may say no to tourism even though they are popular destinations.  Some countries like Mexico have already made the decision to say yes to tourism.

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by SelectSys

[ed01106]

^^^^ So your theory is that in a country like Peru, Thailand or India they are going to shun tourists dollars until 100% of the country is vaccinated caring more about health of the poorest citizens than the tourist revenue.   My theory is that once the wealthy and powerful are vaccinated they won’t care about masses.  

[SelectSys]

22 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

^^^^ So your theory is that in a country like Peru, Thailand or India they are going to shun tourists dollars until 100% of the country is vaccinated caring more about health of the poorest citizens than the tourist revenue.   My theory is that once the wealthy and powerful are vaccinated they won’t care about masses.  

 

While I generally believe in the "golden rule," I am not sure in all cases this will be true.   It depends on the level of governance and I could most definitely be wrong.  We shall see.

 

Countries that are of higher levels economically will more likely be to wait - especially if they have low vaccinations levels and/or low case numbers overall.  

[Donald]

5 hours ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

lori111 is right. 

Long haul travel is going to be slow to return because many countries will keep quarantine and entry restrictions in effect until covid is under control worldwide. Canada PM said exactly that a few weeks ago. It will be mid 2023 or early 2024 before that occurs. And that assumes new variants don't pop up that evade vaccines.

Cruising will be regional for a couple of years when it returns. There will be no trans Atlantic or trans Pacific cruises. The cruise lines will just layup the ships during off seasons. It is too costly to keep going through the CDC CSO every time a ship comes in from a foreign port and to qualify all the crew members with whatever regional protocols are in place elsewhere in the world.

Once a ship is cleared to operate out of a port it will stay there at least until all the covid stuff is over, if that ever occurs.

You seem to have forgotten that the USA is not the only country in the Western Hemisphere. Although Trans-Atlantic and Trans-pacific cruises will not be as numerous until America gets it act together, there are quite a few ships that will re-position between the Med and the Caribbean; and between Asia and the Caribbean. They just will  not be stopping in any US ports.

[navybankerteacher]

1 hour ago, ed01106 said:

^^^^ So your theory is that in a country like Peru, Thailand or India they are going to shun tourists dollars until 100% of the country is vaccinated caring more about health of the poorest citizens than the tourist revenue.   My theory is that once the wealthy and powerful are vaccinated they won’t care about masses.  

NWA

 

(p.s. I do not mean " Now We A

39 minutes ago, Donald said:

You seem to have forgotten that the USA is not the only country in the Western Hemisphere. Although Trans-Atlantic and Trans-pacific cruises will not be as numerous until America gets it act together, there are quite a few ships that will re-position between the Med and the Caribbean; and between Asia and the Caribbean. They just will  not be stopping in any US ports.

I hope you realize that a very large part of the cruising population is US based - do you really think there are sufficient Europeans  or Asians willing to fly to the Western Hemisphere to support Caribbean cruising - or European or Asian cruisers willing to spend weeks at sea to enjoy a few Caribbean islands?

[Mary229]

2 hours ago, ed01106 said:

ee.  Once the vaccine is wildly available to the population of people wealthy enough to afford international travel, international travel will resume with as little regard for the impact of covid on poor people as our current level concern for people dying of malnutrition.  

I already see this happening between the vaccinated and the non-vaccinated in my own little community.   Once people feel invincible all the worries and concerns become a distant memory.   It is remarkable how quickly this happens.   

[Donald]

1 hour ago, navybankerteacher said:

NWA

 

(p.s. I do not mean " Now We A

I hope you realize that a very large part of the cruising population is US based - do you really think there are sufficient Europeans  or Asians willing to fly to the Western Hemisphere to support Caribbean cruising - or European or Asian cruisers willing to spend weeks at sea to enjoy a few Caribbean islands?

Yes, on those big “Walmart-style” ships, Americans are usually the majority. Many of those ships don’t do trans-Atlantics or trans-Pacifics anyway. Post-COVID, it will be impossible to fill them up no matter where they sail. But the smaller, better, pricier ships usually carry a minority of Americans, often make re-positioning voyages, are far easier to fill, and rarely have viral outbreaks of any kind. These are the ships that will be making ocean crossings between Asia and North America, and Europe and North America. You should expect to see many of them sailing out of Barbados, Panama, and Costa Rica in the Winter months. If you follow the newsfeeds, or have contacts in the reservations departments of these smaller ship lines, you will realize that the Winter Caribbean sailings for these smaller ships (that are now in Europe and Asia) are filling up faster than ever before.

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, Donald said:

Yes, on those big “Walmart-style” ships, Americans are usually the majority. Many of those ships don’t do trans-Atlantics or trans-Pacifics anyway. Post-COVID, it will be impossible to fill them up no matter where they sail. But the smaller, better, pricier ships usually carry a minority of Americans, often make re-positioning voyages, are far easier to fill, and rarely have viral outbreaks of any kind. These are the ships that will be making ocean crossings between Asia and North America, and Europe and North America. You should expect to see many of them sailing out of Barbados, Panama, and Costa Rica in the Winter months. If you follow the newsfeeds, or have contacts in the reservations departments of these smaller ship lines, you will realize that the Winter Caribbean sailings for these smaller ships (that are now in Europe and Asia) are filling up faster than ever before.

I will respectfully disagree.  Having been on far more then 100 cruises (with 15 cruise lines) all over the world it was a rare cruise where North Americans were the minority.  I will grant your that there are some Asian cruise lines that have almost all Asian passengers, some German cruise lines with nearly all German passengers, and a few other small European cruise lines.  But the majority of the cruise industry lines and dies with North Americans.  If that part of the cruise industry cannot be quickly resurrected then most of the world's largest cruise corporations (i.e. RCI, Norwegian Holdings and CCL) are going to fail (financially).  MSC might well be the the last major company left standing.  

 

I am not sure what these smaller ships are that you say are filling up faster.  We have cruised on smaller ship lines (i.e. Seabourn, Azamara, "O," etc, ( and none of them are operating or filling up (to use your words).  Nearly all the European lines (both Ocean and River) are now shut down.  Asian cruise lines (such as Star) are also shut down.  Attempts to restart a few cruises in Europe and Asia (with very restricted passenger clientele) have mostly failed.   An even bigger problem is that even if a few cruise ships can get started, they cannot find ports willing to accept the ships.  So a short cruise out of Singapore must be a cruise to nowhere with all Singapore passengers.  A few European cruises have also tried to operate with passengers from a few carefully chosen countries on short cruises going to very few ports.  Most of those have resulted in failure (with some of these failures kept very quiet by all involved).  So if MSC is able to operate 1 or 2 ships on short itineraries that means that 17 other big ships are left behind.  Small ship lines like Seabourn, Silverseas, SeaDream, Azamara, etc. have been left shut down just like their large ship cousins.  

 

You mention "winter Caribbean sailings" and I would love to know about what you speak?  Even a few small ship lines that might have tried to operate out of Barbados have been shut down by the tough Barbados travel requirements coupled with the lack of ports.  So we are now in February and perhaps you can enlighten us as to who is operating and where.

 

Hank

[clo]

30 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

BTW - I am a "Baby Boomer."  I just try and keep the "Me Generation" behavior in check.

I'm one also 🙂

 

It's kinda funny (or not). It was only after getting my first shot and listening to the pros that I ordered the KN95 masks. Before they were at least double layers of fabric (I prefer cotton for coolness).

[Ashland]

We're boomers also but very fortunate that those in our area are following the mask, distance policy.

Unfortunately our Ventura County is only offering the vaccine to those 75+ we're missing it by 2 & 3 years. Waiting our turn.

[evandbob]

A Yale doctor just postulated a 3 part process of covid recovery.  He stated he doesn't see a return to "normalcy" until 2024.  He thought the years 2022 and 2023 would be devoted to "intermediate" stages of recovery in business, social events, and re-establishing relationship ties. 2021 was only about mitigating the virus and rendering it bearable as vax efforts max out towards year end.

[Donald]

20 hours ago, Hlitner said:

I will respectfully disagree.  Having been on far more then 100 cruises (with 15 cruise lines) all over the world it was a rare cruise where North Americans were the minority.  I will grant your that there are some Asian cruise lines that have almost all Asian passengers, some German cruise lines with nearly all German passengers, and a few other small European cruise lines.  But the majority of the cruise industry lines and dies with North Americans.  If that part of the cruise industry cannot be quickly resurrected then most of the world's largest cruise corporations (i.e. RCI, Norwegian Holdings and CCL) are going to fail (financially).  MSC might well be the the last major company left standing.  

 

I am not sure what these smaller ships are that you say are filling up faster.  We have cruised on smaller ship lines (i.e. Seabourn, Azamara, "O," etc, ( and none of them are operating or filling up (to use your words).  Nearly all the European lines (both Ocean and River) are now shut down.  Asian cruise lines (such as Star) are also shut down.  Attempts to restart a few cruises in Europe and Asia (with very restricted passenger clientele) have mostly failed.   An even bigger problem is that even if a few cruise ships can get started, they cannot find ports willing to accept the ships.  So a short cruise out of Singapore must be a cruise to nowhere with all Singapore passengers.  A few European cruises have also tried to operate with passengers from a few carefully chosen countries on short cruises going to very few ports.  Most of those have resulted in failure (with some of these failures kept very quiet by all involved).  So if MSC is able to operate 1 or 2 ships on short itineraries that means that 17 other big ships are left behind.  Small ship lines like Seabourn, Silverseas, SeaDream, Azamara, etc. have been left shut down just like their large ship cousins.  

 

You mention "winter Caribbean sailings" and I would love to know about what you speak?  Even a few small ship lines that might have tried to operate out of Barbados have been shut down by the tough Barbados travel requirements coupled with the lack of ports.  So we are now in February and perhaps you can enlighten us as to who is operating and where.

 

Hank

You have been on more than 100 cruises with 15 cruise lines. Very nice. Does that make you an expert on the cruise industry? I have been on over 1400 cruises and nearly 20 cruise lines. Does that make me an expert? No.

The only advantage I have over you is my connections with so many cruise line corporate offices. I am currently looking at and discussing the itinerary planning and booking trends for around 50 cruise ships for the coming 18 months. Have you had a chance to do that yet? Most of the info is confidential at this point; the various cruise lines will release the details when the time is right.

[clo]

1 hour ago, Donald said:

 Most of the info is confidential at this point; the various cruise lines will release the details when the time is right.

Thank you.

[iancal]

We expect to be doing long haul flights to SE Asia and Europe well before we start cruising again.   Once we have been vaccinated, once we feel comfortable, and assuming that we will be permitted to enter the countries on our list.

 

We certainly agree with the forecast about the travel industry not returning to pre covid levels for a few years post covid.

[ilikeanswers]

On 2/8/2021 at 11:49 AM, ed01106 said:

^^^^ So your theory is that in a country like Peru, Thailand or India they are going to shun tourists dollars until 100% of the country is vaccinated caring more about health of the poorest citizens than the tourist revenue.   My theory is that once the wealthy and powerful are vaccinated they won’t care about masses.  

 

You are assuming poor countries have not done an economic assesment. What would the point of tourist dollars be if it is only used to cover the cost of medical care for your unvaccinated citizens? If your population gets sick it impacts all your industries not just tourism. India makes far more revenue from clothing manufacturing than they do tourism. If keeping clothing manufacturers up and running means sacrificing tourism they will do it. Tourism is one industry and poor countries especially cannot afford to have all industries impacted by Covid outbreaks just to save one industry. Sick people are expensive and can't work and there are knock on effects when they support families or themselves are business owners. Unless you are rich enough to pay everyones medical bills and lost income there aren't a lot of poor countries who are going to be that quick to risk you infecting their citizens and essentially shutting down their country again😒.

[Markanddonna]

On 2/7/2021 at 9:26 PM, navybankerteacher said:

 

I hope you realize that a very large part of the cruising population is US based - do you really think there are sufficient Europeans  or Asians willing to fly to the Western Hemisphere to support Caribbean cruising - or European or Asian cruisers willing to spend weeks at sea to enjoy a few Caribbean islands?

I was surprised to learn that one-third of travelers are from China. That fact matched my experience last November in Europe where 2,000 of the 6,000 passengers on the MSC Grandiosa were from mainland China. 

The Chinese economy is now the strongest in the world translating into more future Asian travelers.