COVID Being brought under Control

[Hlitner]

I will tiptoe on this topic and stay away from inflammatory politics :).  Arguably, the best COVID data has been coming out of Johns Hopkins University (they actually have contracts with the US government) where there is no agenda and they simply deal in facts.   Consider that in the USA back in Jan we had nearly 250,000 new COVID cases per day.  Most recently that number has dropped to around 50,000.  And most of these 50,000 are in lower risk groups.  The actual percentage of folks with COVID who are hospitalized (in the USA) are about 1%.    For some reason there are folks (including some of our own government agencies) that prefer not to share good news and folks can d,raw their own conclusions.   But here is a link to real data:

New COVID-19 Cases Worldwide - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center (jhu.edu)

 

So what does this mean?  I just listened to one of the top Hopkins experts (on data) who said that COVID will be pretty much under control in the USA by late April.   That prediction is simply based on the numbers.  He said what will happen is that in the next month most of the highest risk folks will have either been vaccinated or have natural immunity (from having already had COVID).  Those that are left are mostly younger, healthier, folks at lower risk...a majority of whom would likely suffer few symptoms or be asymptomatic if they do contract the disease.   There are still some of our Government experts that keep warning us about variants, but apparently these variants are still not having a big impact on the numbers in the USA.   The Pfizer vaccine apparently is pretty effective against most variants with Moderna almost as effective (and they are developing a booster to specifically deal with variants).

 

So perhaps here in the USA we have reason to be optimistic about COVID which will likely soon be a manageable disease within our country.  How does this equate to cruising?  If the CDC decides to work with reality perhaps it is good news for the cruise industry.   On the other hand, so far, we have seen no reason to believe that the CDC wants to do much to help the cruise industry.  Their published guide presented onerous requirements for the cruise industry and as of now, they have yet to publish technical guidance to the cruise industry on how to comply with Phase 2.  At the moment the cruise industry, here in the USA, is in a holding mode while they await the CDC's further guidance.   We should add that Frank del Rio (CEO of Norwegian Holdings and among the most experienced cruise executives in the world) has stated that once the CDC green lights cruising it will still take about 90 days for his company to resume cruises (we are assuming this would be similar with most other lines).

 

So, at best, if the CDC were to publish some reasonable technical guidance it is possible that some North American cruises could start as early as July.  But that is a best case scenario and the worst case is unspeakable.

 

Hank

 

[ontheweb]

15 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

I will tiptoe on this topic and stay away from inflammatory politics :).  Arguably, the best COVID data has been coming out of Johns Hopkins University (they actually have contracts with the US government) where there is no agenda and they simply deal in facts.   Consider that in the USA back in Jan we had nearly 250,000 new COVID cases per day.  Most recently that number has dropped to around 50,000.  And most of these 50,000 are in lower risk groups.  The actual percentage of folks with COVID who are hospitalized (in the USA) are about 1%.    For some reason there are folks (including some of our own government agencies) that prefer not to share good news and folks can d,raw their own conclusions.   But here is a link to real data:

New COVID-19 Cases Worldwide - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center (jhu.edu)

 

So what does this mean?  I just listened to one of the top Hopkins experts (on data) who said that COVID will be pretty much under control in the USA by late April.   That prediction is simply based on the numbers.  He said what will happen is that in the next month most of the highest risk folks will have either been vaccinated or have natural immunity (from having already had COVID).  Those that are left are mostly younger, healthier, folks at lower risk...a majority of whom would likely suffer few symptoms or be asymptomatic if they do contract the disease.   There are still some of our Government experts that keep warning us about variants, but apparently these variants are still not having a big impact on the numbers in the USA.   The Pfizer vaccine apparently is pretty effective against most variants with Moderna almost as effective (and they are developing a booster to specifically deal with variants).

 

So perhaps here in the USA we have reason to be optimistic about COVID which will likely soon be a manageable disease within our country.  How does this equate to cruising?  If the CDC decides to work with reality perhaps it is good news for the cruise industry.   On the other hand, so far, we have seen no reason to believe that the CDC wants to do much to help the cruise industry.  Their published guide presented onerous requirements for the cruise industry and as of now, they have yet to publish technical guidance to the cruise industry on how to comply with Phase 2.  At the moment the cruise industry, here in the USA, is in a holding mode while they await the CDC's further guidance.   We should add that Frank del Rio (CEO of Norwegian Holdings and among the most experienced cruise executives in the world) has stated that once the CDC green lights cruising it will still take about 90 days for his company to resume cruises (we are assuming this would be similar with most other lines).

 

So, at best, if the CDC were to publish some reasonable technical guidance it is possible that some North American cruises could start as early as July.  But that is a best case scenario and the worst case is unspeakable.

 

Hank

 

There is still the problem of where can the ships go. Other than Israel, there does not seem to be any country that is vaccinating at the rate we are in the USA. And the suspension in countries of using the AstraZeneca vaccine is also not helping.

[Zach1213]

The wide spread of Covid during the US could actually come back as a good thing* because of the immunity from those who have had it, and the fact that it appears to last a pretty decent amount of time. Combine that with the very, very good vaccine rollout numbers...wow. You can really feel the positivity coming back in the US and it's a damn good feeling after a year of fear and dread. 

 

* - good thing for those that survive, and hopeful that those who had it don't have lifelong health concerns as a result. 

[Flatbush Flyer]

25 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

I will tiptoe on this topic and stay away from inflammatory politics :).  Arguably, the best COVID data has been coming out of Johns Hopkins University (they actually have contracts with the US government) where there is no agenda and they simply deal in facts.   Consider that in the USA back in Jan we had nearly 250,000 new COVID cases per day.  Most recently that number has dropped to around 50,000.  And most of these 50,000 are in lower risk groups.  The actual percentage of folks with COVID who are hospitalized (in the USA) are about 1%.    For some reason there are folks (including some of our own government agencies) that prefer not to share good news and folks can d,raw their own conclusions.   But here is a link to real data:

New COVID-19 Cases Worldwide - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center (jhu.edu)

 

So what does this mean?  I just listened to one of the top Hopkins experts (on data) who said that COVID will be pretty much under control in the USA by late April.   That prediction is simply based on the numbers.  He said what will happen is that in the next month most of the highest risk folks will have either been vaccinated or have natural immunity (from having already had COVID).  Those that are left are mostly younger, healthier, folks at lower risk...a majority of whom would likely suffer few symptoms or be asymptomatic if they do contract the disease.   There are still some of our Government experts that keep warning us about variants, but apparently these variants are still not having a big impact on the numbers in the USA.   The Pfizer vaccine apparently is pretty effective against most variants with Moderna almost as effective (and they are developing a booster to specifically deal with variants).

 

So perhaps here in the USA we have reason to be optimistic about COVID which will likely soon be a manageable disease within our country.  How does this equate to cruising?  If the CDC decides to work with reality perhaps it is good news for the cruise industry.   On the other hand, so far, we have seen no reason to believe that the CDC wants to do much to help the cruise industry.  Their published guide presented onerous requirements for the cruise industry and as of now, they have yet to publish technical guidance to the cruise industry on how to comply with Phase 2.  At the moment the cruise industry, here in the USA, is in a holding mode while they await the CDC's further guidance.   We should add that Frank del Rio (CEO of Norwegian Holdings and among the most experienced cruise executives in the world) has stated that once the CDC green lights cruising it will still take about 90 days for his company to resume cruises (we are assuming this would be similar with most other lines).

 

So, at best, if the CDC were to publish some reasonable technical guidance it is possible that some North American cruises could start as early as July.  But that is a best case scenario and the worst case is unspeakable.

 

Hank

 

“Arguably” is correct.

 

Here are the accurate, data driven projections:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=daily-deaths&tab=trend
Beyond the local reality of the US having significant Covid issues far beyond April (including the variants that do not yet exist - an extreme concern according to UCSF epidemiologists), there remains the bigger issue for the cruise industry of “where can you go?” 

 

While I do see regional political pressures hurrying an autumn 2021 restart of cruising from Florida to wherever in the Caribbean will accept a ship, it’s a good bet that exotic, far flung and longer itineraries will not return until, at least, the first quarter of 2022.

 

[njhorseman]

22 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

 

Here are the accurate, data driven projections:

As a mathematician I have to take issue with your use of "accurate" and "projections" in this context in the same sentence. These projections are estimates derived from models that are based on sets of assumptions and formulae . The results of such projections can never be deemed as accurate except retrospectively after actual results are known, even if the models employed have produced good results in the past.

 

So while the projections you've referenced may be based on models and assumptions developed by very smart people who have done good work in the past there's no guarantee of how accurate they will be. 

[Mary229]

Concerning cases and testing.  It is prevalent in our very large metroplex to now see banners everywhere offering free drive up coronavirus testing, no appointment needed.  

 

When viewing the daily number of cases it is very informative to also juxtapose the number of daily tests.  Tests have been increasing far more quickly than cases

 

Case numbers have been fraught with problems and have never been regulated.  We had the tale of 4 counties in our metroplex.  Three count every test as a case, regardless if the person is tested multiple times.  The fourth only counts a positive single individual once.  The numbers are dramatically different.

 

I look at two sets of data:  the hospitalization rates and the vaccination rates.

 

I do not look at death rates as there is far too much financial motivation to declare the  death caused by Covid.  

Edited March 18, 2021 by Mary229

[sparks1093]

Thanks for the info, Hank. It is refreshing to have a source like JHU that doesn't have an apparent agenda.

[Flatbush Flyer]

31 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

As a mathematician I have to take issue with your use of "accurate" and "projections" in this context in the same sentence. These projections are estimates derived from models that are based on sets of assumptions and formulae . The results of such projections can never be deemed as accurate except retrospectively after actual results are known, even if the models employed have produced good results in the past.

 

So while the projections you've referenced may be based on models and assumptions developed by very smart people who have done good work in the past there's no guarantee of how accurate they will be. 

I stand corrected.

Nonetheless, I am convinced that these projections should inform our decision-making.

[Hlitner]

20 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

Concerning cases and testing.  It is prevalent in our very large metroplex to now see banners everywhere offering free drive up coronavirus testing, no appointment needed.  

 

When viewing the daily number of cases it is very informative to also juxtapose the number of daily tests.  Tests have been increasing far more quickly than cases

 

Case numbers have been fraught with problems and have never been regulated.  We had the tale of 4 counties in our metroplex.  Three count every test as a case, regardless if the person is tested multiple times.  The fourth only counts a positive single individual once.  The numbers are dramatically different.

 

I look at two sets of data:  the hospitalization rates and the vaccination rates.

 

I do not look at death rates as there is far too much financial motivation to declare the  death caused by Covid.  

You are soooo right.  When we lived in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico (just came home last week) it was actually easier to get tested then here at home, but that was private testing for which we had to pay (about $25-$33 for antigen and over $100 for PCR).  

 

Regarding data, I have long had a huge issue with the use of the so-called "Positivity" rate.  This has been derived based on total positive tests over total tests.  But the problem is that the Positivity rate is completely dependent on total tests.  In Mexico the only reported tests were those done by the Government labs and they primarily tested folks who were sick or had symptoms so the positivity rate is very high because the denominator (total tests) has few healthy folks in the calculation.   Consider that all Americans and Canadians living in the Puerto Vallarta area (normally over 50,000 souls) need to get tested before flying home.  But just about all of these folks (who are overwhelmingly negative) go to private testing locations (not the Government) so their numbers are not even counted in statistics.

 

Your comment about the death rate is very interesting and rings true.  In some places there was a tendency to report just about any death as COVID even when it was not the case.  We have read about some folks who died in an automobile accident but were classified as COVID deaths because they tested positive at their autopsy.  But COVID has nothing to do with their deaths (they apparently were assymptomatic from COVID).   And it has been the same in many places.  A person dies from any cause (including cancel) but still gets counted as a COVID death.  How inflated are the death from COVID numbers?  I suspect nobody has a clue.

 

Hank

[clo]

1 hour ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

While I do see regional political pressures hurrying an autumn 2021 restart of cruising from Florida to wherever in the Caribbean will accept a ship, it’s a good bet that exotic, far flung and longer itineraries will not return until, at least, the first quarter of 2022.

 

This, for me, is going to be the big sticking point, I have less than zero interest in the Caribbean. I want multi-port, multi-nation, some EU and some not EU. Getting that kind of coordination from countries that don't make a ton of money from cruisers I see as a very lengthy process.  The cruise we have booked for 9/22 has stops in about a dozen countries. I'm not totally pessimistic but sure not thinking about packing yet 🙂

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

“Arguably” is correct.

Agreed . It's an opinion. My earlier comment to you explaining why projections can't be prospectively declared as accurate applies just as much to the work coming out of JHU as it does to your source.

 

37 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

I stand corrected.

Nonetheless, I am convinced that these projections should inform our decision-making.

It's akin to weather forecasting. Some meteorologists like the so-called European Model for forecasting hurricanes and snowstorms, some prefer the American model...and there are other models to choose from. Many really good meteorologists forecast not from a rote allegiance to a particular model but rather by taking in all the projections that are reasonably trustworthy and draw their own experience-based conclusions from what they see.

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, Mary229 said:

I do not look at death rates as there is far too much financial motivation to declare the  death caused by Covid.  

That is based on a largely inaccurate politically motivated conspiracy theory . Hospitals do receive a 20% additional payment for the treatment of Medicare patients who have been diagnosed with COVID-19...BUT...

 

It applies to Medicare patients only.

 

It applies to charges for treatment of such patients, not their deaths per se.

 

The additional payments go to the hospital treating the patient, not physicians, but physicians sign death certificates, so what is the physician's financial motivation for falsifying death certificates particularly since it is a crime to do so?

 

The COVID diagnosis has to be confirmed by test results, not assumptions, for the additional payment to be made.

 

The legislation granting the additional 20% payment was signed into law by the same president who then conveniently made the accusations about the financial motivation. Why did he not ask Congress to amend the law if it was being abused?

 

Statistically the total number of deaths in the US has by increased more the reported number of COVID deaths, suggesting that it's more likely that COVID deaths have been undercounted, not overcounted. Of course some of this increase may also be due to people being afraid of going to see a doctor during the pandemic, allowing conditions like heart attacks to go untreated, as well as possible increase in suicides, although this paper from Johns Hopkins suggests that may not be true:

https://www.hopkinsguides.com/hopkins/view/Johns_Hopkins_Psychiatry_Guide/787393/all/Suicide_Risk_in_the_COVID_19_Pandemic

"Multiple reports based on the early months of the pandemic have not found significant changes in the overall rates of suicide."

Edited March 18, 2021 by njhorseman

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

Your comment about the death rate is very interesting and rings true.  In some places there was a tendency to report just about any death as COVID even when it was not the case.  We have read about some folks who died in an automobile accident but were classified as COVID deaths because they tested positive at their autopsy.  But COVID has nothing to do with their deaths (they apparently were assymptomatic from COVID).   And it has been the same in many places.  A person dies from any cause (including cancel) but still gets counted as a COVID death.  How inflated are the death from COVID numbers?  I suspect nobody has a clue.

Please read my response to Mary229 above. It applies equally to your comments.

[Mary229]

It is true, however, that the government will pay more to hospitals for COVID-19 cases in two senses: By paying an additional 20% on top of traditional Medicare rates for COVID-19 patients during the public health emergency, and by reimbursing hospitals for treating the uninsured patients with the disease (at that enhanced Medicare rate).

 

Source:      https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospital-payments-and-the-covid-19-death-count/

 

adding it includes Medicaid also

Edited March 18, 2021 by Mary229

[njhorseman]

4 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

It is true, however, that the government will pay more to hospitals for COVID-19 cases in two senses: By paying an additional 20% on top of traditional Medicare rates for COVID-19 patients during the public health emergency, and by reimbursing hospitals for treating the uninsured patients with the disease (at that enhanced Medicare rate).

 

Source:      https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospital-payments-and-the-covid-19-death-count/

 

adding it includes Medicaid also

Fine, throw in Medicaid patients too. That doesn't change the rest of what I said one iota.

[Mary229]

1 minute ago, njhorseman said:

Fine, throw in Medicaid patients too. That doesn't change the rest of what I said one iota.

and uninsured.    And it does change what you said.  You said it was fake news, well it is not

Edited March 18, 2021 by Mary229

[Mary229]

Let me help you understand.  Here is the age graph for deaths as of mid February

 

 

[SelectSys]

3 hours ago, Hlitner said:

He said what will happen is that in the next month most of the highest risk folks will have either been vaccinated or have natural immunity (from having already had COVID).  Those that are left are mostly younger, healthier, folks at lower risk.

I think this is still localized.  California still does not make vaccines available in the 50-65 segment where the data suggests lots of risk still exists. I can't imagine California having accomplished  this task in 45 days.  Maybe in other states,  but not here.

2 hours ago, njhorseman said:

As a mathematician I have to take issue with your use of "accurate" and "projections" in this context in the same sentence. These projections are estimates derived from models that are based on sets of assumptions and formulae

I am no mathematician, but I do remember enough to remember enough statistics to remember the limitations of models, the uncertainty associated with them and how that uncertainty explodes as you make predictions about the future.  

 

 

1 hour ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

Nonetheless, I am convinced that these projections should inform our decision-making.

It really depends on the quality of the model.  The uncertainty can be so high - especially in something so complex as world-wide disease modeling that forecasts 6 months are at best directionally correct and at worst  useless.    Lots of time people want to grasp for answer - simply human nature - when none really exists. 

 

Personally I am thinking COVID is tracking the 1918 Flu pandemic - 2 years.  The only difference is that improved medicine more than counterbalanced better transportation in terms of keeping deaths down in a relative sense.

35 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

COVID deaths have been undercounted, not overcounted. Of course some of this increase may also be due to people being afraid of going to see a doctor during the pandemic

My opinion is that lots of untangling needs to be done to see what really happened.  We are still in "the fog of war" which makes definitive conclusions problematic.

[ldubs]

COVID case counts & COVID death counts.  I suspect there has been fraud motivated by financial reasons.     I also suspect it has not happened enough to even move the needle much less make us completely discount the counts of deaths.  

 

 

[mom says]

I understand that CC is US centric, but I'm SMH over all of you who say the COVID case numbers and death numbers have been hyperinflated due to massive fraud in every state in your country. Is that also your reasoning for the catastrophic numbers in so many other countries all over the world ( with a few enviable exceptions)? Do you absolutely rule out that the reason for those numbers might be the way the pandemic was mishandled?

Edited March 18, 2021 by mom says

[Mary229]

32 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

My opinion is that lots of untangling needs to be done to see what really happened.  We are still in "the fog of war" which makes definitive conclusions problematic.

Exactly.   There are a lot of pronouncements  made and a lot of people who think they are following the science when the science has not played out yet.  There will be investigations and thesis written but likely some things won't be known for many years.  At least we have a vaccine and it seems to be working

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, Mary229 said:

and uninsured.    And it does change what you said.  You said it was fake news, well it is not

According to the American Hospital Association it is. 

 

I'm done discussing this. 

[BritsAbroad]

1 hour ago, ldubs said:

COVID case counts & COVID death counts.  I suspect there has been fraud motivated by financial reasons.    

 

 

 

...really...what Worldwide? Obvs all the countries of the world have their communities pretending to die....solely so people can put their tin hats on? 🙂

[wowzz]

6 hours ago, ontheweb said:

There is still the problem of where can the ships go. Other than Israel, there does not seem to be any country that is vaccinating at the rate we are in the USA. And the suspension in countries of using the AstraZeneca vaccine is also not helping.

Actually the UK vaccination rate is slightly ahead of the US. 

[Ashland]

I believe our worry should be the variants that could change statistics.