What percentage before we turn red status?

[Colorado_Ag]

1 hour ago, MarEll1 said:

I hope you are feeling better soon and your wife continues to test negative! May I ask why you were tested?

Thank you.  I began having cold symptoms and was worried it might be covid. 

[canderson]

Really sorry your adventure took a left turn before Gatun.  We've loved all three of our transits, and hope you are someday able to return for the full experience.

 

Once again wondering about the thinking behind the current protocols, especially while omicron dominates...

 

With an estimated 35-40% of COVID infected people being asymptomatic, and with omicron spreading 70x faster in human airways than delta (but 10x slower in the lungs .. good thing!), these kinds of shipboard scenarios have been inevitable, and will likely be with us for another couple of months at least.

 

The question in my mind is whether there will ever come a tipping point for the industry where it reconsiders what the appropriate objectives are for dealing with omicron, and whether protocols need to be adjusted to meet new objectives.  

[MarEll1]

24 minutes ago, Colorado_Ag said:

Thank you.  I began having cold symptoms and was worried it might be covid. 

I give you a LOT of credit for having yourself tested. My opinion, but I’m afraid many passengers would not have done the same. 

[Auntiemomo]

2 hours ago, Colorado_Ag said:

I'm one of the lucky 3% on Connie. Tested positive yesterday morning and escorted to the red zone on deck 7 forward by employee in Ghostbusters suit.  My wife tested negative 24 hrs later and is free to move about the ship. My symptoms are mild, basically like a cold. The most surprising thing on this trip is the acceleration rate. 1% on Thurs,  2% yesterday and 3% today. Hopefully we level off here and the other 97% enjoy yesterday rest of the trip. The crew has been great and I feel well cared for. When I feel better I'm going to start challenging them with drink orders! 

Answered above.

Edited January 30, 2022 by Auntiemomo

[Oville]

2 hours ago, Colorado_Ag said:

I'm one of the lucky 3% on Connie. Tested positive yesterday morning and escorted to the red zone on deck 7 forward by employee in Ghostbusters suit.  My wife tested negative 24 hrs later and is free to move about the ship. My symptoms are mild, basically like a cold. The most surprising thing on this trip is the acceleration rate. 1% on Thurs,  2% yesterday and 3% today. Hopefully we level off here and the other 97% enjoy yesterday rest of the trip. The crew has been great and I feel well cared for. When I feel better I'm going to start challenging them with drink orders! 

Just curious about your opinion, do you think there may be passengers on board who are mild like you and won’t get tested to avoid the red zone?  Maybe your wife can answer this as she is out and about and observing those with symptoms such as a cold.

Thanks and be well.

[luckyinpa]

im curious everyones threshold where you'd cancel your cruise. 

[Oville]

32 minutes ago, luckyinpa said:

im curious everyones threshold where you'd cancel your cruise. 

For us it was easy, we needed to make final payment in early January for a suite on a cruise in April with a ton of FCC and a equal about to pay for the remainder.  We pushed  this down the road to the Fall.

Edited January 30, 2022 by Oville

[canderson]

54 minutes ago, MarEll1 said:

I give you a LOT of credit for having yourself tested. My opinion, but I’m afraid many passengers would not have done the same. 

There are unquestionably quite a few pax who are positive, asymptomatic, and have no reason to think they should be tested. For every 6 positives with symptoms, it would be typical if there were 3 or 4 more positives who didn't have any symptoms.

 

Is the nature of the problem becoming clearer?

 

 

[cgolf1]

So if the numbers continue to rise, how do they handle it? Cut the cruise short, delay the next cruise for a deep clean, both, or other? Delaying the cruise would cause a dilemma for those that test two days before only to hear it gets delayed. Hope all who caught it have mild symptoms and get well soon. 

[RichYak]

1 minute ago, cgolf1 said:

So if the numbers continue to rise, how do they handle it?

Stop testing. Unfortunately, that's going to require more courage than any cruise line could muster at this point.

[RichYak]

17 minutes ago, canderson said:

For every 6 positives with symptoms, it would be typical if there were 3 or 4 more positives who didn't have any symptoms.

Is this a guess or is there data to back this up? Don't get me wrong, I don't disagree with you. I'm just curious how you put a number to it.

[Ipeeinthepools]

16 minutes ago, cgolf1 said:

So if the numbers continue to rise, how do they handle it? Cut the cruise short, delay the next cruise for a deep clean, both, or other? Delaying the cruise would cause a dilemma for those that test two days before only to hear it gets delayed. Hope all who caught it have mild symptoms and get well soon. 

 

It's simple.  The new protocol is: "Don't Test, Don't Tell"

[jelayne]

I haven’t seen much posted that indicated that those quarantined had much more than mild symptoms.  
If  many cruisers were being disembarked at ports  in hazmat suits and taken to hospitals that would be very concerning.

 
We board next weekend we plan to do our best to avoid crowded place (Martini bar, Silent Disco and bus tours) and if one of us tests positive ( if we don’t feel well we will get tested) we have a plan for quarantine both on and if necessary off the ship. 
When people test positive within 12-72 hours of boarding it is unlikely they got infected on the ship, more likely in transit on a plane, shuttle, hotel, bar  etc.  Derp cleaning of the ship won’t solve that.  We have determined that it is likely we will get Covid at some point.  We are vaxed & boosted so hopefully  a mild case and 🤞it’s not on a cruise, but we are going on with life and hopefully the cruises will continue to sail.
 

 

 

 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, RichYak said:

Is this a guess or is there data to back this up? Don't get me wrong, I don't disagree with you. I'm just curious how you put a number to it.

No, actual data from several countries who were dealing with omicron early on.  S. Africa was the first to study the percentages.  Believe the UK was the second to report.  Wouldn't take much of a Google search to find them.

[Arizona Wildcat]

2 hours ago, RichYak said:

Stop testing. Unfortunately, that's going to require more courage than any cruise line could muster at this point.

Stopping testing would create huge ethical.issues for the doctors.

I am disappointed that the number of cases is not being quickly disseminated to the public.  Illness on board is required to be reported to the CDC.  Always has

[canderson]

2 hours ago, cgolf1 said:

So if the numbers continue to rise, how do they handle it? Cut the cruise short, delay the next cruise for a deep clean, both, or other?

Deep cleaning won't resolve this.  Unlike many 'shipboard diseases' like noro, the primary transmission method is through inhalation of airborne aerosols, not contact or ingestion.  The next batch of live, breathing COVID-positive passengers will be how the bug gets passed around on the subsequent cruise, not the buttons in the elevator.

 

I'm afraid RichYak is almost correct.  Unless the objective remains zero-COVID, in which case the lines should just roll up the gangways for the next few months, the obvious solution is to revisit the objective, and quit using 'cases' as the primary metric that drives all of the decisions and protocols and come up with a more workable model that better reflects the consequences of omicron to a vaccinated population sample.   Perhaps throw in a boost requirement as part of the process since that seems, on average, to truly help with the consequences of infection.  Not a bad plan for other than cruise ships, too, IMHO.  Current zero-COVID policies aren't sustainable in the face of omicron transmissiblity - anywhere - including cruise ships.  There's the choice of having a truly bumpy next couple of months, or finding new ways to live with this.

 

As an aside, many ERs are now reported as being overrun with people looking for PCR testing and other services when they develop the slightest sniffle.  Ships medical facilities really aren't equipped to deal with comparable demand from cruise passengers, either.

 

Imagine it.  850 aboard.  3% infection rate give us 25 people.  Now, given the R0 of around 7 for omicron, what would a truly effective contact trace on the rest of the pax turn up?  Over 150 'cases'.  Add to that all of the asymptomatic cases that aren't caught up in the contact tracing.  Scary number if 'cases' is your only metric.

 

 

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by canderson
usual typoz

[wrk2cruise]

Just a slight correction.  3% is of the total passengers + crew aboard which more like 1600 so affected is just south of 50.  We were onboard the prior 2 sailings and friends are still aboard this sailing.  From my experience (as they stopped reporting actual numbers of passengers/crew earlier in Jan) is the majority of those in isolation are crew.

[RichYak]

8 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Stopping testing would create huge ethical.issues for the doctors.

They could start with no longer testing asymptomatic close contacts. Just notify them.

[TeeRick]

Does the number of positive tests (3% or whatever) matter at this point?  The number of passengers with symptoms not reporting them is likely higher, perhaps much higher.  This is what current cruise passengers signed up for and chose to deal with being fully aware that Omicron has been on ships and is highly infectious.  The ship will probably not be turned back by the CDC but if the crew members get a lot of positive tests that will impact the cruise for sure.  And ports might refuse the ship.  Need to be extra careful and try to enjoy the cruise.

Edited January 30, 2022 by TeeRick

[phoenix_dream]

1 minute ago, TeeRick said:

Does the number of positive tests (3% or whatever) matter at this point?  The number of passengers with symptoms not reporting them is likely higher, perhaps much higher.  This is what current cruise passengers signed up for and chose to deal with being fully aware that Omicron has been on ships and is highly infectious.  The ship will probably not be turned back by the CDC but if the crew members get a lot of positive tests that will impact the cruise for sure.  And ports might refuse the ship.  Need to be extra careful and try to enjoy the cruise.

I am trying to determine if the percentage matters to the CDC and if so what percentage pushes the ship to red. Apparently CDC uses more than percentage for that determination.  But I still would like to hear if any other Celebrity ships exceeded that 3%  and if so by how much

[LGW59]

4 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Does the number of positive tests (3% or whatever) matter at this point?  The number of passengers with symptoms not reporting them is likely higher, perhaps much higher.  This is what current cruise passengers signed up for and chose to deal with being fully aware that Omicron has been on ships and is highly infectious.  The ship will probably not be turned back by the CDC but if the crew members get a lot of positive tests that will impact the cruise for sure.  And ports might refuse the ship.  Need to be extra careful and try to enjoy the cruise.

Hasn't the CDC guidance now become optional for cruises?  Could be wrong but I thought I read/heard a blip about that.

[PTC DAWG]

10 hours ago, RichYak said:

Stop testing. Unfortunately, that's going to require more courage than any cruise line could muster at this point.

This^^^^^^^

[phoenix_dream]

11 hours ago, Oville said:

Just curious about your opinion, do you think there may be passengers on board who are mild like you and won’t get tested to avoid the red zone?  Maybe your wife can answer this as she is out and about and observing those with symptoms such as a cold.

Thanks and be well.

IMHO it is really hard to answer that. There are mostly us older folks on this cruise.  I hear tons of coughing here and there but truthfully alot of older folks were doing that pre-covid from years of smoking and let's face it, just from being older.  No way to tell if it's potential covid or just advanced years. DH has had sinus problems for years. For several hours each morning you might be nervous to be around him, but unless the symptoms last beyond mid-day this is 'normal ' for him. 

[phoenix_dream]

4 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

Hasn't the CDC guidance now become optional for cruises?  Could be wrong but I thought I read/heard a blip about that.

They are still asked to provide case numbers and the CDC still controls whether they can continue sailing or not is my understanding 

[Colorado_Ag]

12 hours ago, Oville said:

Just curious about your opinion, do you think there may be passengers on board who are mild like you and won’t get tested to avoid the red zone?  Maybe your wife can answer this as she is out and about and observing those with symptoms such as a cold.

Thanks and be well.

Didn't witness any prior to my isolation but I'm guessing

there are folks not testing. I think if we were in a large suite I might have hunkered down and ordered room service and ridden it out. I couldn't live with myself circulating around in public spaces on the ship suspecting I might have it.