Inbound Flight Dilemma - what would you do?

[jrhill]

I’ll start by saying I know obviously it’s better to arrive a day before your cruise, but this one is a little more complicated. Due to work, we absolutely cannot fly out during the workday on the Friday before the Saturday cruise.

 

Our options are:

 

• direct flight at 7PM the night before, gets to Fort Lauderdale at 11PM, hotel (Jet Blue)
• direct flight that arrives at 10AM day of cruise, so 4 hours to spare (no checked bags), first flight of the day on that route (Southwest)
  •             There is also a direct flight from Southwest that runs the same route a couple hours later, if the first flight is canceled, so slight rebooking possibility
• connecting flights, which increases exposure to cancellations anyways

 

This is in late February in Nashville. Statistically, weather has a 1% chance of being a problem. My thinking is, if weather is an issue, how likely is it that the JetBlue flight “the day before” would make it while the Southwest flight the next morning wouldn’t? Plus the Southwest option saves us $250 in hotels and bag fees, and my understanding is the first flight of the day for a route is the least likely to get canceled.

 

This is a free cruise, so I’m only in $300 for taxes and fees. Which flight plan would you choose?

Edited January 27, 2023 by jrhill

[CruiserBruce]

The Friday at 7pm option.

[navybankerteacher]

This is a no-brainer: take the night flight the day before - which gives you a chance to recover if your flight is cancelled.  If you go for the Southwest flight day of and it is even seriously delayed, you are done.  Sure:  you may have gotten a "free" cruise -- but once you have it, it still has value to you which is worth protecting.

 

Finally that "statstical"  "1% chance of being a problem" is simply optimistic BS.  Anywhere much north of Aruba in February has a fair chance of a substanial weather delay on any one of the 100 days between December 26 and April 5.   Surely more than one of those days in any given winter will see a delay.

[GTO-Girl]

After the Southwest debacle a few weeks ago where they cancelled thousands of flights and people were stranded at the airport for days….no way would I trust flying with them the day of!!! 
 

But then again…..no way would I fly in the day of period!!

[Elaine5715]

Jet Blue for the winner.  

[LHT28]

outbound flight  the night before

[GeezerCouple]

15 minutes ago, LHT28 said:

outbound flight  the night before

 

This ^^

ZERO question:  get that first possible flight, and hope that you won't need to try to get on one of the backups!

 

That ship leaves with you or without you.

 

Now, in your case, unlike most others, you would only be out a very modest amount of money if you "missed".  You don't have thousands spent on the cruise, all non-refundable.  (Those fees and taxes also might be refundable if you don't get on the ship...?)

 

So in a way, it depends upon how much you really want to make the cruise... how disappointed will you be (and will there be others with you?).

This makes your situation quite different from most of us.

GC

[donaldsc]

Are you seriously considering flying Southwest?  Just ask the people that Southwest  sc****ed  if they would ever fly on that airline again?

 

DON

[Flatbush Flyer]

4 hours ago, jrhill said:

I’ll start by saying I know obviously it’s better to arrive a day before your cruise, but this one is a little more complicated. Due to work, we absolutely cannot fly out during the workday on the Friday before the Saturday cruise.

 

Our options are:

 

• direct flight at 7PM the night before, gets to Fort Lauderdale at 11PM, hotel (Jet Blue)
• direct flight that arrives at 10AM day of cruise, so 4 hours to spare (no checked bags), first flight of the day on that route (Southwest)
  •             There is also a direct flight from Southwest that runs the same route a couple hours later, if the first flight is canceled, so slight rebooking possibility
• connecting flights, which increases exposure to cancellations anyways

 

This is in late February in Nashville. Statistically, weather has a 1% chance of being a problem. My thinking is, if weather is an issue, how likely is it that the JetBlue flight “the day before” would make it while the Southwest flight the next morning wouldn’t? Plus the Southwest option saves us $250 in hotels and bag fees, and my understanding is the first flight of the day for a route is the least likely to get canceled.

 

This is a free cruise, so I’m only in $300 for taxes and fees. Which flight plan would you choose?

Ask your boss to give you a break and fly in a day earlier.

[ColeThornton]

Direct flight or non-stop flight?   Sounds the same but is actually two different things.

[navybankerteacher]

11 hours ago, GeezerCouple said:

 

This ^^

…

 

Now, in your case, unlike most others, you would only be out a very modest amount of money if you "missed".  You don't have thousands spent on the cruise, all non-refundable.  …

 

 

 

11 hours ago, GeezerCouple said:

GC

If you lose something of value to you, does it really matter if you originally paid for it or if you got it as a gift?  Someone who was given a car for his birthday experiences the same loss as someone who bought his car if his car gets stolen.

Edited January 27, 2023 by navybankerteacher

[mom says]

16 hours ago, jrhill said:

I’ll start by saying I know obviously it’s better to arrive a day before your cruise, but this one is a little more complicated.

No, it's not more complicated. You have a flight that can get you there the evening before departure. So take it.

[wcook]

The folks on this board are pretty conservative when it comes to cruising. Not so interested in risk or adventure. They just wanna make their ship. And they tend to be more well off than your average cruiser so aren’t as worried about hotel and transportation costs. 
 

Not me. Normally I encourage people (other people, not necessarily me) to throw caution to the wind and fly in the day of. We need more risk and excitement in our lives. And hotel savings means you can have a larger bar bill🍹🥂🍻

 

But, I just looked and saw it’s a 6:50 am flight. Which usually means leaving your house at 4-something. Which could mean getting up at - gulp - 3-something. 
 

That’s no way to start a vacation. 

[GTO-Girl]

27 minutes ago, wcook said:
 

Not me. Normally I encourage people (other people, not necessarily me) to throw caution to the wind and fly in the day of. We need more risk and excitement in our lives. And hotel savings means you can have a larger bar bill🍹🥂🍻

 

VERY bad advice……especially for new or inexperienced cruisers who might not know any better!!!!!

[Zach1213]

43 minutes ago, wcook said:

The folks on this board are pretty conservative when it comes to cruising. Not so interested in risk or adventure.

 

Ha...I am full of risk and adventure. I've taken vacations to places like Iraq, Haiti (not Labadee), Libya, and Somalia. But I always fly in to my cruise a day early. If I can't arrive a day early, that's not the cruise for me. 

Edited January 27, 2023 by Zach1213

[Z'Loth]

On 1/26/2023 at 7:29 PM, jrhill said:

I’ll start by saying I know obviously it’s better to arrive a day before your cruise, but this one is a little more complicated. Due to work, we absolutely cannot fly out during the workday on the Friday before the Saturday cruise.

 

Our options are:

 

• direct flight at 7PM the night before, gets to Fort Lauderdale at 11PM, hotel (Jet Blue)
• direct flight that arrives at 10AM day of cruise, so 4 hours to spare (no checked bags), first flight of the day on that route (Southwest)

 

Which flight plan would you choose?

 

The 7 PM flight the night before and grab a hotel room. This will allow you to sleep in the morning and enjoy the first night of the cruise. If you fly in the day of the cruise, you will have to get up early in the morning to catch an early morning flight.... and end up sleeping during the first night of your cruise. 

[jsglow]

@jrhillwhile I am one of those in favor of a night before flight and have always done it, many people do successfully fly 'morning of'.

 

Here are some absolute rules to follow.

1) Non-stop only.  I believe on SWA that's not a problem from BNA-FLL. Your use of the word 'direct' indicates an intermediate landing but no change of planes.  I suspect you were simply 'loose' with your terminology.

2) VERY first flight of the day.  That means you want your plane on the ground overnight at BNA having arrived the night before. If your flight is leaving BNA before 7-8a I suspect that will be true.  You can check via apps like flightaware.com.  What you want to avoid is a flight that overnights somewhere else before flying its first morning leg getting to BNA.

3) Remain keenly aware of the weather. SWA will allow for 'no questions asked' switches if weather looks like it will become a problem a day or two out.  If that happens (like the ice storm you are about to get), gather the family immediately and rebook for an earlier flight sometime Friday. You can always book a last second hotel in FLL when you land.

 

$250 isn't 'nothing'. But I will tell you that my own BIL missed a cruise last year when he couldn't successfully get from Nashville to Miami because of thunderstorms in south FLA, day of.  Those overnight 8-12 hours are gold and your safety net.  Get me in at 5am if you have to Captain.

Edited January 31, 2023 by jsglow

[zdcatc12]

Another thing to remember is that even if the weather in BNA isn't bad, the weather where the plane and/or crew is coming from, could also be a factor.

 

 Also, while the first flight of the day is safer than other times, I have had numerous flights on various airlines first flights of the day, that were still delayed because the crew came in late the night before and the flight could not leave until their rest period was up. Just because the plane is ready, doesn't necessarily mean that the crew is. And this could be caused by something as little as one of the three or four flight attendants being late, not necessarily the whole crew.

 

 There are always a lot of factors besides just the weather at the departure and/or arrival airport that could muck things up.

[mahi mahi]

A few years back we were on a Holland America ship out of Ft. Lauderdale, leaving Sunday for 7 days.  The penthouse below us was empty. On Thursday at dinner in the main dining room a couple were ushered to a table by the window and from the conversations they had with dining room staff we learned they were the missing penthouse occupants.  They had flown to FLL on departure date but due to thunderstorms were diverted to Miami where they sat on the tarmac long enough that they missed the ship and were only able to catch up on Thursday.  This was late November.

 

Our first 3 cruises we flew in same day with no problems and thought nothing of it being newbies. The 4th cruise we planned to arrive a day ahead, booked hotel through cruiseline and it was a total disaster! Booked air from Toronto through the cruiseline (back then you could not choose your flight, you took whatever they assigned) and it was a total disaster! We had the first flight out but there was a mechanical problem. Also a blizzard however other flights were leaving.  The mechanical problem continued ALL DAY and into the evening, kept being delayed. Meanwhile we tried standby and that didn't work either.  I think we went through US customs in Toronto 4 times (you again???).  Eventually took off just before midnight and landed in La Guardia by which time the crew was timed out so we were stuck for the night.  They had promised us hotel rooms for the night but that was a lie. So there we stayed, freezing our buns off by the front doors of the terminal.  We made it out the next morning finally and by the time we actually boarded we had been up 42 hours.  Our luggage had gone to Miami and didn't catch up with us until day 4.  This was American Airlines - we have avoided them since!  One of our bags didn't make the return flight either.

 

Bottom line - we ALWAYS fly in the day before (if leaving out of Europe allow 2 or 3 days) and ALWAYS take direct flights. You can never count on weather. So far we have never missed a cruise, touch wood!

 

 

[logan25]

My two cents.

 

First of morning flights can be a priority for the airline to launch.  However, in winter, the weather and temperature are variable.  It is not unheard of for overnight temperatures to cause icing (of aircraft equipment necessary for airworthiness) in the morning, which in turn delay the launch.

 

Speaking from experience.  Nashville is far sight more north than Texas.

[Zach1213]

5 hours ago, logan25 said:

It is not unheard of for overnight temperatures to cause icing (of aircraft equipment necessary for airworthiness) in the morning, which in turn delay the launch.

 

 

The good thing is that de-icing continues to get more efficient, at least in airports that are halfway prepared for it. Some northern airports just set up "assembly lines", for lack of a better term, where a whole taxiway is set up for it and plane and plane just goes through with the equipment stationary. Those are great. Even DFW is better than it was just five or 10 years ago. 

 

Then there are the airports where it's literally a guy on the back of a pickup truck with a de-icing hose. Those are...not great. 

[logan25]

13 minutes ago, Zach1213 said:

 

The good thing is that de-icing continues to get more efficient, at least in airports that are halfway prepared for it. Some northern airports just set up "assembly lines", for lack of a better term, where a whole taxiway is set up for it and plane and plane just goes through with the equipment stationary. Those are great. Even DFW is better than it was just five or 10 years ago. 

 

Then there are the airports where it's literally a guy on the back of a pickup truck with a de-icing hose. Those are...not great. 

Point taken.  I don’t live in DFW.  So pickup truck it is.

[6rugrats]

OP flew already, in late February.

[FlyerTalker]

10 hours ago, 6rugrats said:

OP flew already, in late February.

 

And never posted back again.

 

 

[jsglow]

On 1/30/2023 at 4:03 PM, jsglow said:

@jrhillwhile I am one of those in favor of a night before flight and have always done it, many people do successfully fly 'morning of'.

$250 isn't 'nothing'. But I will tell you that my own BIL missed a cruise last year when he couldn't successfully get from Nashville to Miami because of thunderstorms in south FLA, day of.  Those overnight 8-12 hours are gold and your safety net.  Get me in at 5am if you have to Captain.

I ran across my old post here which turned out to be prophetic in February.  Because of various delays, we didn't land into FLL until 3:30 am for a recent cruise using up most of those 'safety net hours' I had mentioned.  Problem was, we could no longer check into our hotel.  We airport 'dozed' those wee hours away before grabbing a morning Uber to POM.  I remember snoozing pretty well for an hour up in the Adults Only area that afternoon before our cabins were ready. But we made the ship and knew at all times that we would.

 

Fly the night before.

Edited March 29, 2023 by jsglow