Hurricane Irma Watch

[BND]

"Useless"? Really?

 

They're very valuable when taken in context. Watchfulness and planning is never a bad strategy. You shouldn't encourage people who aren't accustomed to tropical system to view information as "useless".

 

Too many people see one or two models and decide that's what's going to happen. A good meteorologist will tell you the same thing that I said. There's too many who think a model run or two is fact 10 days out. It's not by a long shot. You can be prepared and watchful without jumping to conclusions.

[waterbugohio]

Watching this thread

We sailed 9/18 in the majesty

 

I know Irma should be past. But I thought I saw a post about more storms behind her

 

I'm not good at reading those weather maps. Can someone tell me what to watch for???

[dada2199cc]

Watching this thread

I'm not good at reading those weather maps. Can someone tell me what to watch for???

 

Honestly there's not much point watching more than 4 or 5 days out, and even then the maps change so quickly. I tend to watch 4-5 days out just to be aware of possible changes, but then I don't trust anything specifically until 2 days out. Even then I've been in FLL when a hurricane was "90% certain" to hit and it decided to change course last minute and all I got was some rain.

 

Posting maps at 4-5 days out looks nice but there are probably 50 different algorithms for making predictions and they're all over the place. Some algorithms say Irma could still change towards the gulf, some say new york, some show it curving completely away from the US and Caribbean, some show it plowing into San Juan. And we're 3 days away from it being anywhere close to a cruise destination, so it can change even more.

 

There are even some predictions that it will lose steam and not even be a hurricane in 2-3 days.

 

Be aware of risks, monitor daily, and if things start looking ugly 1-2 days out, that's still not a guarantee that it will be ugly, or vice versa.

 

Originally I thought it would hit San Juan but now I don't feel confident it will hit land at all until Georgia. The maps changed overnight and this morning I feel it's going to curve north instead of heading west. That's my opinion.

[John&LaLa]

I'm prepping my shutters for closing on Monday morning.

 

 

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[Tony20]

Too many people see one or two models and decide that's what's going to happen. A good meteorologist will tell you the same thing that I said. There's too many who think a model run or two is fact 10 days out. It's not by a long shot. You can be prepared and watchful without jumping to conclusions.

 

I agree with this. So they're not actually USELESS.

 

You can't use hyperbole to argue against hyperbole.

[HallOfPromise]

The message should be to watch the models knowing the accuracy is lower the more days out the event is, but not to dismiss them all together. Look at the models with knowledge at hand, not simply ignore them and wait. Or... Knowledge over ignorance.

 

And a good meteorologist would probably tell people to study the early models and to be prepared of changes, but to not make decisions until the 5-day models come out. And these models are very useful to a meteorologist, as it's one of many tools they need to forecast the storm. Every meteorologist I fallow uses long-term forecasts to get a picture of future probabilities. And that should be the key word. Probability.

[John&LaLa]

I never understood why Colorado State forecasts hurricanes

 

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[wilson821]

We leave out of Mobile, AL on 9/9 and head for Cozumel and Progreso... returning on 9/14.... following this thread... first time for us both and getting a lil nervous

[Dennis#1]

Nachi Cocom here we come!

 

Have fun. We love Nachi Cocum. Been to Nachi Cocum at least 10 times already.

[gobucks66]

We are driving down from Ohio, leaving on the 9th for the cruise on Enchantment out of Miami on the 11th, so I will have no idea what to do come then. We could drive all the way down only to have the POM closed or the cruise before ours kept at sea. I will just keep watching and hoping for the best.

[daka]

Not USELESS, but not definitive.

So many "models" so much variance....probably good to keep watching, but it only gets "real" about 2 - 3 days out.

We have been in Fort Lauderdale 27 years, a few hurricanes and do not PANIC .... (yet)

[Margy23]

We're going to be on Oasis Sept 17. Got our eyes and ears open, but happy to be going anywhere as long as we can get on the ship with a week of no cleaning or cooking! LOL

 

We're on that sailing also and agree with you. We are taking an extra week's supply of medication just as insurance, but our main focus is on having a great cruise.

 

Do you drive down from Georgia? We live in Ocala, FL, so we just have about a 2 1/2 hour drive to Port Canaveral. It's good not to have to worry about air travel like we did when we lived in the Chicago area.

 

Looking forward to meeting you!

 

Margy

[cruisinfanatic]

Too many people see one or two models and decide that's what's going to happen. A good meteorologist will tell you the same thing that I said. There's too many who think a model run or two is fact 10 days out. It's not by a long shot. You can be prepared and watchful without jumping to conclusions.

I think it's certainly helpful to see what the different models say where the storm could go. Sometimes most of them agree. One of them is usually right

[HallOfPromise]

My worst case scenario is we fly down on the 9th and then last minute Royal cancels our Sept 10th cruise (similar to how they handled Liberty), then we are stuck in a potential disaster zone. I'd much rather deal with a cancelled cruise then risk the safety of my fiancee and me.

[Biker19]

We leave out of Mobile, AL on 9/9 and head for Cozumel and Progreso... returning on 9/14.... following this thread... first time for us both and getting a lil nervous

A thread in the Carnival section may have better info.

[slyster]

long story short, my brother is in Puerto Rico...he leaves on a carnival cruise tomorrow. They were really considering cancelling because his inlaws have the flu. The inlaws have family in Puerto Rico and told my brother and their son to go ahead and go on the cruise. The cruise was really a way to say thanks to the inlaws. Well they found out that almost all flights out of San Juan are booked and sold out for the next few days due to folks being terrified of Irma coming. People are already getting out. There were maybe two flights left for Monday and it would have cost them over $1000 each. So now they are going.

 

As for the inlaws, they are staying in Puerto Rico and will leave when they were expecting too....in two weeks. If it weren't for this possible hurricane, my brother would be heading home, but since it costs too much to fly back, they are going on the cruise.

 

(they do have cruise insurance but it covers up to the original cost of the flight ($278 one way).

[welivetocruise]

I'm glad we got insurance months ago. Most policies will only include hurricane aid if you sign up before the storm is named, and Irma was named several days ago.

 

At his point I'm wondering if my cruise will even happen. Supposed to be 9/10 (Allure) and we're flying in from the Bay Area on 9/9. It seems if they wait until the last minute to cancel the cruise we'll be in the area, and potentially in harm's way of the storm. We're booked at the Embassy Suites, which like many of the hotels there, is right on or near the water's edge. This could be a very sticky situation and I hope a decision is made before we leave. I don't want to be there then be stuck there.

We are on the Allure 9/10 as well, flying in on 9/9..this week rccl made a decision only 1 day before in changing itinerary for the 9/3 sailing...I would be fine if it were only that. What happens if we fly in and now Allure can't return to port and we are stuck in a hurricane..what a mess..

 

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[luvpoodle]

Just so long as we can make it to the ship I'll be happy.

 

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[Nvgrundy]

We are on the Allure 9/10 as well, flying in on 9/9..this week rccl made a decision only 1 day before in changing itinerary for the 9/3 sailing...I would be fine if it were only that. What happens if we fly in and now Allure can't return to port and we are stuck in a hurricane..what a mess..

 

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Allure is out of FL? I think by Wednesday they will know more about whether it turns or goes to GOM. We fly out on 9/8 and leave from NOLA.

 

 

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[perditax]

Most models have it going well northeast of Florida, and none currently have a GOM solution. Of course we're still way out in the weeds.

[WrittenOnYourHeart]

What is a GOM solution?

[perditax]

What is a GOM solution?

 

 

Sorry, a weather forecast model (there are many many models) that shows the storm tracking into the Gulf of Mexico. None of the major models do right now, but that could change with the next set of model runs.

 

(I spend too much time lurking on meteorology forums, the jargon leaks in.)

[WrittenOnYourHeart]

Sorry, a weather forecast model (there are many many models) that shows the storm tracking into the Gulf of Mexico. None of the major models do right now, but that could change with the next set of model runs.

 

(I spend too much time lurking on meteorology forums, the jargon leaks in.)

 

Thanks! And for spelling out GOM - I was not getting that one. :)

[Jellyrolls]

We are booked on the Majesty of the Seas set to sail out of Orlando on Friday, September 8th. We leave for Orlando tomorrow morning, so we will be watching the weather closely as we get closer to the date. It's only a three night cruise. If the cruise ends up being cancelled, we will just stay in Orlando for a few extra day at Disney or Universal (we have annual passes to both parks). We haven't booked a hotel yet (we almost did today, but then changed our minds).

[fragilek]

new runs now put Florida in the picture (AGAIN these are likely to change)